Whether you're a complete beginner, or a seasoned bettor looking to up your game, we’ve got an NBA betting strategy to help you. From the basics to the more complex strategies, this guide will cover it all.
The most important things to do are manage your bankroll and study the game and form of the teams. At a more advanced level, look at the entire schedule at the start of the season and predict how things might play out. Ready to start? The read on below.
Betting on the NBA and playing the lottery aren’t the same thing. The latter is completely random, meanwhile, with the former, you can use your knowledge of the sport to help increase your chances of winning.
However, being a keen basketball fan and a student of the games isn’t everything. Additionally, you need to know how to take that knowledge and apply it in a betting context. Moreover, you also need to understand how some key betting concepts work, such as odds and implied probability.
For example, if you think back to the 2023/24 season, any casual NAB observer would’ve been able to tell you that the Celtics would beat the Pistons on any given day. However, the Celtics would’ve been such strong favourites going into a match like that that there would’ve been no value in backing them on a straight bet.
That’s where strategy and betting knowledge comes in, as it helps you understand alternative markets so that you might find value for your predictions. We will cover all of this for you and more in this NBA strategy betting guide today.
We’ll get into the nitty-gritty in a short moment, but first, here’s a quick summary of the main props and cons of using strategy when betting on the NBA:
In order to understand the best betting strategies, we first must take a look at how you can bet on the NBA. It all starts with the basic betting line for an NBA match, which you should find looks something like this:
| Teams | Moneyline | Points Spread | Totals |
|---|---|---|---|
| Celtics: | -175 | -3.5 (-110) | O 225.5 (-110) |
| Knicks: | +145 | +3.5 (-110) | U 225.5 (-110) |
If you’re completely new to NBA betting, this might look very confusing to you, but it’s actually pretty easy to understand. Below, we have explained these three betting markets alongside some basic strategies for each one:
The moneyline is the basic straight bet which shows the odds on each team to win. Here, there are two sides to the bet:
In this example, the moneyline is quite close, so there is some half-decent value, even on the favourite. However, you may want to look at the other markets to find more value and to advance your NBA betting strategy.
You can find moneyline betting explained in more detail here if you wish to know more. For now, though, let’s move on and take a look at the other two basic basketball betting lines.
The points spread is used to balance up the probability and odds of both sides in the match using a points handicap and advantage. As you can see in the example above, the Celtics have a 3.5 handicap as favourites, meanwhile, the Knicks have a +3.5 advantage.
What you can also see is that the odds for both outcomes are (-110), Because the contest is effectively made even thanks to the points handicap and advantage, the odds for the points spread will always open at the same even odds, but may move as the game draws closer.
The points spread is popular with many NBA betting strategies because it offers more value in the moneyline. This is especially true for heavily unbalanced games where the favourite is heavy odds-on and the underdog is a massive longshot.
Totals betting (see the over under bet explained for more detail) is distinctly different from the other two betting lines as it isn’t concerned with the final result of the game. Instead of betting on one team, you are predicting that the total points scored by both teams combined will be over or under the given amount - 22.5, in this case.
As with the points spread, the implied probability and odds start on the same value for both sides of a total bet (-110). This type of wager is commonly used in NBA betting strategies for games where the winner is too hard to call, even with the spread taken into account.
With the basics out of the way, let’s focus on some more general strategies more closely. Below, we have highlighted some NBA betting strategies that all bettors, from beginner to expert, can implement:
This isn’t specifically related to the NBA or basketball, but it is the first and most important part of any betting strategy. You should decide upon a total bankroll that should be no more than you can realistically afford to lose. Then, you need to divide it into smaller increments for each betting session - we recommend no more than between 1 - 5% of your total bankroll for this.
Especially for new bettors, choosing the right betting site is essential for your NBA betting strategy. You can compare the best online NBA betting sites where you are right here at SportsGambler.
Look at past NBA fixtures from this season, or the tail end of the previous season to see which teams are in form. In addition to overall form, you should also look at head-to-head (H2H) records as this shows you the history between the two sides. Even the most in-form and dominant sides often have their “bogey” teams.
It’s not just what happens on the court that matters; off-the-court factors can also seriously impact your NBA betting strategies. For example, dressing room bust-ups, injuries to key players, or personal-life scandals can all have an effect on player and team performance.
In every other walk of your consumer life, you would shop around to find the best price before you buy, wouldn’t you? Well, the same logic should apply when it comes to basketball betting. Compare multiple sportsbooks and shop around for the best possible odds every time.
Another way to enhance the value of your wagers as part of your NBA betting strategy is to make use of all bonuses available. In addition to the welcome offer, many betting sites also offer year-round bonuses to existing players. Some even offer NBA-specific promotions on certain game weeks or when big games are coming up, such as the playoffs and Championships.
Especially if props betting is going to form a key part of your NBA betting strategies, you need to study the stats as much as possible. It’s difficult to pick up each individual player, points, blocks, and rebound numbers just by watching games. As well as the NBA official site, there are plenty of other betting-focused stat bloggers out that you can subscribe to.
If you’re new to NBA betting, don’t jump straight in with handicaps or complex props and combo bets; go with a moneyline or points spread wager. Above all, it’s important that you progress at your own steady pace and don’t run before you can walk. If you place a sports wager that you don’t fully understand, you may as well be playing the lotto.
Understanding the NBA and basketball is, of course, key to formulating a good NBA betting strategy. However, you also have to understand how the gambling industry works so that you can accurately follow the money. If the sportsbooks see more money coming in on one side than the other, they will tend to shorten that side and drift the other to balance things up. This is an example of how the odds can move with no direct sport-related influence.
Last but certainly not least, avoid betting on the team that you support. That is unless you can take the passion out of it and think logically. Sports betting is all about pragmatism, and your love for a team can definitely get in the way of that, as you will naturally lean towards backing the outcome you want to happen and not the one that you realistically predict will happen.
The classic way to bet on a basketball game is to place your wager before the game starts. You then watch the game and wait to see if your bet comes up.
However, there is another form of wagering known as in-play or live betting, which involves placing your picks whilst the game is happening in real-time. Naturally, this is a bit more difficult and not ideal for beginners.
As a result, it requires a different NBA betting strategy and general approach. With that in mind, here are a few tips from out experts:
| Plan before the game starts: | Although you are betting on the game as it is happening, you don’t want to be too reactionary. Have a rough idea in your head of the team, players and markets that you are looking at. If the game is going as you thought, and the odds are moving as you would like, then go for it. |
| Follow the momentum: | One of the best NBA betting strategies for in-play wagers is to try and catch a momentum swing at the right time. If you move quickly when a losing team appears to be on the ascendancy and turning things around, you might be able to find some decent value. |
| Wait for breaks in play: | The hardest thing about live betting is that the odds move really quickly to reflect what’s happening in the game. You therefore need to profit from breaks in play, such as half-time and time-outs, as this is when the odds for all markets will momentarily stand still. |
| Identify on-fire players early: | If you’re looking at player points or stat totals, next scorer, free throws or similar markets, then identifying a player who’s likely to perform well early in the game is key. Often, you can tell within the fit few minutes simply by movement and attitude if a player is likely to be lit up for the entire game. |
| Make use of the early cashout feature: | Most sportsbooks now have an early cashout feature, which allows you to cash out your bet at a reduced price before the game finishes if it is winning at the time. Naturally, this is risky, but it can end up being beneficial if your bet goes on to lose. |
So far we’ve focused on general tips that are specifically relevant to NBA betting. But before we finish, we’d like to run you through a few popular betting strategies to show you how and when they can potentially be applied to your basketball wagers:
This NBA betting strategy involves doubling down after a bet loses and halving after a bet wins. The idea behind it is that you will, over time, either make a profit or at least regain your losses to break even and keep your bankroll steadily afloat.
This type of betting involves taking advantage of NBA betting promotions by placing bets on opposing outcomes with two different bookies to guarantee a win and a profit.
You bet on the Celtics to beat the Knicks with a free bet bonus at one sportsbook, and the Nicks to beat the Celtics with real money on another.
This is a classic strategy that involves placing a counter short-term bet against your original long-term bet to guarantee a profit or limit your losses.
At the start of the season you place a futures bet on the Celtics to win the NBA Championship. Come June, the Celtics are in the Championship finals series against the Mavericks. You would place a counter bet on the MAvericks to ensure that you win something no matter what the outcome.
In conclusion, having a good NBA betting strategy is all about getting the basics right first and foremost. You need to start by picking the right online bookie and by setting up a sustainable bankroll management plan. After that, you can start watching the games, studying the stats and using your savvy knowledge of the sport to try and get ahead. And Remember that you can always refer back to our top tips here at SportsGambler anytime that you like.
There is no single strategy that we can cite which is 100% the most profitable for NBA betting. Instead, we advise implementing a number of strategies such as bankroll management, following the form, and more. Check out our top 10 basketball strategy tips here at SportsGambers.com.
There is no single strategy that you can use to guarantee wins at NBA betting, but there are some steps that you can take to give yourself a better chance. The most important thing to remember is that sports betting is not a raffle, you can use your sports knowledge to help you get ahead.
When it comes to picking the best betting market, you have to take it game by game, but the points spread is always popular and can offer decent value. For more info, check out our guide to making picks against the spread explained here at SportsGambler.com.
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