Pittsburgh Penguins vs Tampa Bay Lightning Prediction, Picks & Odds | 04 Dec 2025

NHL Betting Preview: Penguins vs Lightning

The Pittsburgh Penguins square off against the Tampa Bay Lightning at Benchmark International Arena, with face-off scheduled for 19:00 on Thursday, December 4.

The Lightning look value on the 3-Way Moneyline and our prediction is that they will claim a victory over the Penguins. We’re happy to take the -120 that the home team win in 60 minutes.

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Pittsburgh Penguins have won back-to-back road games. A 5-1 triumph recently occurred at Xfinity Mobile Arena when playing Philadelphia Flyers. Sidney Crosby registered two goals, with Bryan Rust, Kevin Hayes and Thomas Novak also finding the net. Goalie Tristan Jarry had an awesome game, keeping out 28 shots (.966).

Tampa Bay Lightning have won four consecutive games at home. In their last appearance, they suffered a 2-1 road defeat against New York Islanders at UBS Arena. Lightning managed 30 shots and Dominic James recorded the only goal.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The scoreline was 6-1 in favor of the Lightning when they last played the Penguins, with the encounter taking place at Benchmark International Arena. The Lightning have three straight wins against the Penguins. However, they have lost 6 of the 10 previous head-to-head meetings.

Starting Goalies

Tristan Jarry (Confirmed)

Season	W-L-OTL:	GAA:	SV%:	SO:
24/25	12-3-2	2.8	.903	1
23/24	19-25-5	2.91	.903	6

Jonas Johansson (Confirmed)

Season	W-L-OTL:	GAA:	SV%:	SO:
24/25	10-6-1	2.7	.896	0
23/24	12-7-5	3.37	.890	2

4 wins, 3 losses and 3 overtime losses, averaging 2.5 goals from 26.2 shots on goal, with a 24.0% powerplay efficiency. The Penguins have been giving up 2.7 goals from 25.6 shots, averaging 3.1 penalties with a penalty-killing efficiency of 87.1%.

Sidney Crosby is the top points scorer with 10 points, 7 goals and 3 assists, with Bryan Rust racking up 7 points, 3 goals and 4 assists, in the last 10 games. Goalie Sergei Murashov have a 1.90 goal against average with a .913 save percentage, including one shutout.

The Lightning have 8 wins and 2 losses, averaging 3.6 goals from 26.4 shots on goal, with a 9.8% powerplay efficiency. They have been conceding 1.9 goals from 25.6 shots, averaging 4.3 penalties per game with a penalty-killing efficiency of 93.0%.

The top points scorer is Nikita Kucherov with 18 points, 4 goals and 14 assists, while Brandon Hagel is next in line after having 13 points, 8 goals and 5 assists. Goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy have a 1.29 GAA with a .953 SV%, including one shutout.

Pittsburgh Penguins vs Tampa Bay Lightning Prediction & Picks

We dive into the top Pittsburgh Penguins vs Tampa Bay Lightning betting angles, including our main match prediction, correct score play, standout player prop picks and a bet builder tailored for value.

Game Prediction

We’re keeping things simple by backing Tampa Bay Lightning on the 60-minute line. They should get the better of their opponents in this NHL encounter and our pick is available at -120.

We keep a close eye on the NHL team news and our handicappers stay sharp by tracking the latest form and lineups. You’ll also find a full set of stats that offer valuable insight and help shape smarter hockey predictions ahead of the action.

Key Penguins vs Lightning stats:

• Lightning have won 4 consecutive games at home.
• Lightning have won 8 of their last 10 games.
• Lightning have won 15 of their last 20 games.
• Penguins have lost 6 of their last 10 games.
• Penguins have lost 3 of their last 5 games on the road.
• Lightning have won the last 3 games between these teams.

Lightning 3-Way Moneyline Probability

Looking at the latest betting odds, there’s a 54.6% likelihood of our pick delivering a return. However, our cappers research has found that the actual probability is closer to 60%. The wager can be recommended for this precise reason.

The Match Winner & Total Goals option not only gives you a chance to back Tampa Bay to win but also combine this selection with a prediction for how many goals will be scored.

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Our Game Prediction

Lightning 3-Way Moneyline @ -120 Bet Now

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Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: Evgeni Malkin Over 1.5 Shots -175

Evgeni Malkin (Penguins) has recorded Over 1.5 shots on goal in 9 of the past 10 games. If you agree with our verdict that he can cover the line again, then you can land odds of -175 that this happens.

Correct Score Prediction

Penguins 3 - 4 Lightning

The Lightning can be backed at +900 to triumph by a 4-3 scoreline. It can be fun to have a wager on the correct score and there’s a big potential return if the bet wins.

Latest Correct Score Odds

Score

Penguins

Lightning

1-0

Penguins

+6000

Lightning

+6000

2-0

Penguins

+6000

Lightning

+5000

2-1

Penguins

+1700

Lightning

+1500

3-0

Penguins

+4500

Lightning

+3300

3-1

Penguins

+2400

Lightning

+1800

3-2

Penguins

+1000

Lightning

+850

4-0

Penguins

+6000

Lightning

+3500

4-1

Penguins

+2200

Lightning

+1400

4-2

Penguins

+1900

Lightning

+1400

4-3

Penguins

+1100

Lightning

+900

5-0

Penguins

+10000

Lightning

+6000

5-1

Penguins

+3500

Lightning

+2000

5-2

Penguins

+2200

Lightning

+1400

5-3

Penguins

+2500

Lightning

+1900

5-4

Penguins

+1900

Lightning

+1700

6-0

Penguins

+1900

Lightning

+8000

6-1

Penguins

+8000

Lightning

+4500

6-2

Penguins

+4500

Lightning

+2400

6-3

Penguins

+3400

Lightning

+2400

6-4

Penguins

+5000

Lightning

+4000

6-5

Penguins

+4500

Lightning

+4000

7-0

Penguins

+4500

Lightning

+12500

7-1

Penguins

+14000

Lightning

+7000

7-2

Penguins

+11000

Lightning

+6000

7-3

Penguins

+7000

Lightning

+4500

7-4

Penguins

+7000

Lightning

+5000

7-5

Penguins

+10000

Lightning

+9000

7-6

Penguins

+10000

Lightning

+10000

8-1

Penguins

+10000

Lightning

+12000

8-2

Penguins

+10000

Lightning

+10000

8-3

Penguins

+10000

Lightning

+10000

8-4

Penguins

+13000

Lightning

+9000

8-5

Penguins

+14000

Lightning

+11000

View More

Pittsburgh Penguins vs Tampa Bay Lightning Odds

The odds and lines are updated on a frequent basis. You might therefore find that they are different to the ones listed for the above betting predictions.

The sportsbooks are taking no chances with their Moneyline odds of -154 about Tampa Bay Lightning which reflects they have a 61% chance of winning this game. At +128, Pittsburgh Penguins are regarded as having a lower probability of winning.

1.5 is the puck line and 6.5 is the total goals line. The beauty of Totals is that you only have to choose from one of two options. There’s an opportunity to bet Over 6.5 at -100.

If you’re wagering on National Hockey League clashes, we recommend heading to the top sportsbooks and scanning through the hundreds of team props and game lines. There’s the opportunity to bet pre-game and in-game.

Moneyline

Penguins

+128

Lightning

-154

3-Way Moneyline

Penguins

+215

Tie

+325

Lightning

-102

Puck Line

Penguins +1.5

-189

Lightning -1.5

+152

Total Goals

Under 6.5

-122

Over 6.5

-100

There is regularly value to be found from wagering on the goalie and player props with the best gambling sites. You can find lots of ways to back for or against a specific player lining up for one of the two teams.

Micro betting is something that’s really popular with bettors, with NHL fans essentially being able to bet in-game when it comes to team and player props. Sometimes these are lines where you can wager on Shots or Goals.

Latest regular season and playoff games stats.

Pittsburgh Penguins Stats

Tampa Bay Lightning Stats

Moneyline

• 4 wins and 6 defeats in the last 10 games
• 5 wins and 5 defeats in the last 10 games on the road

Moneyline

• 8 wins and 2 defeats in the last 10 games
• 8 wins and 2 defeats in the last 10 home games

Puck Line

• +1.5 Betting Line: Have covered the +1.5 puck line in 8 of the last 10 games
• +1.5 Betting Line on the Road: Have covered the +1.5 puck line in 9 of the last 10 games on the road

Puck Line

• -1.5 Betting Line: Have covered the -1.5 puck line in 7 of the last 10 games
• -1.5 Betting Line at Home: Have covered the -1.5 puck line in 3 of the last 10 home games

Total Goals

• Game Totals: An average of 5.30 goals in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals on the Road: An average of 5.40 goals in the previous 10 games on the road
• Over 5.5: Covered in 4 of the previous 10 games
• Over 5.5 on the Road: Covered in 5 of the previous 10 games on the road
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 2.50 goals and allowed 2.80 goals in the last 10 games
• Team Totals on the Road: Have scored an average of 3.00 pts and allowed 2.40 goals in the last 10 games on the road

Total Goals

• Game Totals: An average of 5.50 goals in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals at Home: An average of 5.40 goals in the previous 10 home games
• Over 5.5: Covered in 5 of the previous 10 games
• Over 5.5 at Home: Covered in 5 of the previous 10 home games
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 3.60 goals and allowed 1.90 goals in the last 10 games
• Team Totals at Home: Have scored an average of 3.10 goals and allowed 2.30 goals in the last 10 home games

Team Stats - Avg/Game

Last 10 Games

• Goals Powerplay: 0.6
• Shots: 26.2
• Goals Shorthanded: 0
• Penalties: 3.1
• Empty Net Goals: 0.2
• Penalty Minutes: 6.7
• Blocks: 14.1
• Faceoff Wins : 25.9
• Hits: 15.5
• Giveaways: 14.7
• Takeaways: 4.3

Last 10 Games on the Road

• Goals Powerplay: 0.8
• Shots: 27.3
• Goals Shorthanded: 0
• Penalties: 3.6
• Empty Net Goals: 0.2
• Penalty Minutes: 10.7
• Blocks: 14
• Faceoff Wins : 26.6
• Hits: 15.9
• Giveaways: 14.9
• Takeaways: 5.6

Team Stats - Avg/Game

Last 10 Games

• Goals Powerplay: 0.4
• Shots: 26.4
• Goals Shorthanded: 0.1
• Penalties: 4.3
• Empty Net Goals: 0.4
• Penalty Minutes: 12.6
• Blocks: 13
• Faceoff Wins : 24.7
• Hits: 18.1
• Giveaways: 15.7
• Takeaways: 4

Last 10 Home Games

• Goals Powerplay: 0.5
• Shots: 28.5
• Goals Shorthanded: 0.1
• Penalties: 4
• Empty Net Goals: 0.1
• Penalty Minutes: 11.6
• Blocks: 14
• Faceoff Wins : 26.1
• Hits: 20
• Giveaways: 15.7
• Takeaways: 4.2

Injuries & Suspensions

Starting Lineups

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