Las Vegas Aces vs Phoenix Mercury Prediction, Picks & Odds | 29 Jun 2025

There’s a Strong Case for Mercury ATS

We are confident that the Mercury will cover the spread. -7.5 seems a generous line and you can get -110 that the favorites will win by a bigger margin against the Aces.

Aces Have Won 8 of Previous 10 H2H Matchups

Las Vegas Aces lost their previous game, being beaten at home to Washington Mystics 94-83 at Michelob Ultra Arena.

Phoenix Mercury won their last game which was at home. It was a 106-91 triumph at Footprint Center against New York Liberty.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The Mercury won the most recent matchup between these teams. A 76-70 victory was registered against the Aces at Michelob Ultra Arena. In the past 10 H2H meetings, the Aces have won eight.

WNBA	W	L	PF	PA	N. Pts	Home	Away	Strk
2  Aces	26	14	3308	3263	45	14-5	12-9	12W
4  Mercury	25	14	3240	3105	135	14-6	11-8	4W

View Full Standings

Las Vegas Aces vs Phoenix Mercury Prediction & Picks

Mercury should secure a comfortable win and a bet on the spread could be the best way forward in this WNBA showdown. Back our pick off -7.5 to cover the line at -110.

We study the form as a first port of call and also make sure we’re across any injuries before making WNBA predictions. Then it’s a case of understanding the sort of narrative that the stats provide.

Key Aces vs Mercury stats:

• The -7.5 line has been covered by Mercury in 4 consecutive games.
• The -7.5 line has been covered by Mercury in 6 of their last 10 games.
• The +7.5 line hasn’t been covered by Aces in 3 of their last 5 games on the road.
• The +7.5 line hasn’t been covered by Aces in 2 consecutive games on the road.

Mercury -7.5 Probability

When you look at the latest odds, our pick has a 52.4% chance of landing a return. In the opinion of our cappers, there’s actually a probability of success between 55-60%. It’s why we think it’s worth placing this bet.

If you want to pimp the odds about the Mercury against the spread, you might consider going down the Bet Builder route and combine this prediction with other selections.

Best Bet

Mercury -7.5 @ -110 Bet Now

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Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: Alyssa Thomas Over 6.5 Rebounds -154

Alyssa Thomas (Mercury) is available at -154 to rack up Over 6.5 rebounds. We’re confident that she can oblige with an Overs bet considering the generous line that’s on offer.

Latest Alyssa Thomas Player Prop Odds

Points

Over 13.5

-105

Under 13.5

-123

Assists

Over 8.5

-141

Under 8.5

+108

Rebounds

Over 6.5

-149

Under 6.5

+115

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Satou Sabally Over 18.5 Points -105

Satou Sabally (Mercury) can be backed to score Over 18.5 points at -105. We think that the line looks really appealing for this Player Points bet as we’re expecting her to cover this total.

Latest Satou Sabally Player Prop Odds

Points

Over 17.5

-101

Under 17.5

-128

Rebounds

Over 7.5

-125

Under 7.5

-103

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Correct Score Prediction

Aces 76 - 88 Mercury

The Mercury to win by a 88-76 scoreline could be worth a chance. There’s a big potential return if you can land this bet on the money and it should provide some entertainment.

Las Vegas Aces vs Phoenix Mercury Odds

The odds and lines are updated on a frequent basis. You might therefore find that they are different to the ones listed for the above betting predictions.

Mercury Big Favorites With the Books

The Phoenix Mercury odds have been priced up by the sportsbooks and they are -263 betting favorites to land victory in this WNBA game which means a 72% chance of winning. If you’re looking for an alternative angle, Las Vegas Aces are trading at +205.

6 is the spread and 168 is the total points line. A Total wager is always available and can often provide value selections. Those that want to back Under 168 can find odds of -110 available.

If you’re wagering on basketball, we recommend heading to the betting sites and scanning through the hundreds of team props and game lines. There’s the opportunity to bet pre-game and in-game.

Moneyline

Aces

+205

Mercury

-263

Point Spread

Aces +6

-108

Mercury -6

-112

Total Points

Under 168

-110

Over 168

-110

A'ja Wilson Favorite to Get the Most Buckets

A'ja Wilson is favorite when it comes to hitting the most buckets. You can get -105 that she goes Over 21.5 points and -123 when it comes to Under.

A'ja Wilson (Aces)

Over 21.5

-105

Under 21.5

-123

Satou Sabally (Mercury)

Over 17.5

-101

Under 17.5

-128

Jackie Young (Aces)

Over 15.5

-123

Under 15.5

-105

Kahleah Copper (Mercury)

Over 15.5

-100

Under 15.5

-130

Alyssa Thomas (Mercury)

Over 13.5

-105

Under 13.5

-123

Chelsea Gray (Aces)

Over 12.5

-115

Under 12.5

-112

Jewell Loyd (Aces)

Over 11.5

-105

Under 11.5

-123

Kitija Laksa (Mercury)

Over 8.5

-128

Under 8.5

-101

Alyssa Thomas (Mercury)

Over 8.5

-141

Under 8.5

+108

Chelsea Gray (Aces)

Over 4.5

-118

Under 4.5

-110

A'ja Wilson (Aces)

Over 3.5

+152

Under 3.5

-200

Jackie Young (Aces)

Over 3.5

-120

Under 3.5

-108

A'ja Wilson (Aces)

Over 9.5

-100

Under 9.5

-130

Satou Sabally (Mercury)

Over 7.5

-125

Under 7.5

-103

Alyssa Thomas (Mercury)

Over 6.5

-149

Under 6.5

+115

Jackie Young (Aces)

Over 4.5

+120

Under 4.5

-156

Jewell Loyd (Aces)

Over 4.5

+115

Under 4.5

-149

Kahleah Copper (Mercury)

Over 3.5

+118

Under 3.5

-154

Chelsea Gray (Aces)

Over 3.5

-147

Under 3.5

+114

Micro Betting

An increasing number of basketball bettors are now enjoying micro betting and it’s something which is available on an in-game basis. Wait for the action to start and then wager on something specific to happen.

Last 5 & H2H

Latest regular season and playoff games stats.

Las Vegas Aces Stats

Phoenix Mercury Stats

Moneyline

• 7 wins and 3 defeats in the last 10 games
• 5 wins and 5 defeats in the last 10 games on the road

Moneyline

• 4 wins and 6 defeats in the last 10 games
• 6 wins and 4 defeats in the last 10 home games

Point Spread

• +4.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 7 of the last 10 games
• +4.5 Betting Line on the Road: Have covered the spread in 6 of the last 10 games on the road

Point Spread

• -4.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 4 of the last 10 games
• -4.5 Betting Line at Home: Have covered the spread in 6 of the last 10 home games

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 169.90 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals on the Road: An average of 160.40 pts in the previous 10 games on the road
• Over 168.5: Covered in 6 of the previous 10 games
• Over 168.5 on the Road: Covered in 3 of the previous 10 games on the road
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 84.70 pts and allowed 85.20 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals on the Road: Have scored an average of 79.70 pts and allowed 80.70 pts in the last 10 games on the road

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 160.70 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals at Home: An average of 163.70 pts in the previous 10 home games
• Over 168.5: Covered in 2 of the previous 10 games
• Over 168.5 at Home: Covered in 4 of the previous 10 home games
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 80.80 pts and allowed 79.90 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals at Home: Have scored an average of 86.00 pts and allowed 77.70 pts in the last 10 home games

WNBA Table Select Season 20252024202320222021202020192018

Team	W	L	PF	PA	N. Pts	Home	Away	Strk
1  Lynx	31	8	3382	2995	387	18-2	13-6	1W
2  Aces	26	14	3308	3263	45	14-5	12-9	12W
3  Dream	25	14	3254	3008	246	13-6	12-8	1W
4  Mercury	25	14	3240	3105	135	14-6	11-8	4W
5  Liberty	24	16	3405	3240	165	16-5	8-11	1L
6  Fever	21	18	3318	3212	106	11-9	10-9	2W
7  Storm	22	19	3379	3276	103	9-10	13-9	2W
8  Valkyries	20	18	2997	2934	63	11-7	9-11	2W
9  Sparks	17	20	3183	3266	-83	7-12	10-8	2L
10  Mystics	16	24	3116	3264	-148	10-10	6-14	6L
11  Sun	10	29	2974	3342	-368	6-13	4-16	1L
12  Sky	9	30	2957	3353	-396	5-15	4-15	4L
13  Wings	9	31	3269	3524	-255	5-16	4-15	7L