Phoenix Mercury vs Minnesota Lynx Prediction, Picks & Odds | 21 Sep 2025

WNBA Betting Preview: Mercury vs Lynx

The Phoenix Mercury square off against the Minnesota Lynx in Game 1 of this WNBA semifinal series at Target Center, with tip-off scheduled for 17:00 on Sunday, September 21. Our betting preview features expert predictions, betting tips, the latest odds and H2H stats.

We’re Backing Lynx on the Spread

The Lynx at -6.5 could be the best bet to have on the spread. Odds of -114 are available and our prediction is a solid win when playing the Mercury.

Confident in our spread pick? Unlock the best BetMGM promo code and take a moment to read our expert site review before you commit to your play.

8 Wins for Lynx in Last 10 H2H Encounters

The Phoenix Mercury clinched a place in the WNBA semifinals with a 2-1 series win over the New York Liberty. Game 3 saw the Mercury prevail 79-73 at PHX Arena, using home-court advantage to eliminate the defending champions and book their spot in the final four.

The Minnesota Lynx advanced to the semifinals after completing a 2-0 series sweep over the Golden State Valkyries. Game 2 ended in dramatic fashion, with the Lynx edging out a 75-74 road victory at Chase Center.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The Lynx had the edge in the most recent matchup between these teams. At Target Center, they recorded a 79-66 win over the Mercury. The Lynx have won eight of the previous 10 H2H meetings.

WNBA	W	L	PF	PA	N. Pts	Home	Away	Strk
1  Lynx	34	10	3787	3373	414	20-2	14-8	1W
4  Mercury	27	17	3643	3525	118	15-7	12-10	3L

View Full Standings

Phoenix Mercury vs Minnesota Lynx Prediction & Picks

This expert Phoenix Mercury vs Minnesota Lynx betting breakdown features our match prediction, a correct score tip, player prop suggestions and a carefully constructed bet builder to guide your wagers.

Game Prediction

The best pick is to snap up the -114 that Lynx are able to cover the spread. The favorites are -6.5 for this WNBA contest and the margin of victory could be a good deal more significant.

Our team of expert WNBA handicappers track current injuries closely. Combined with recent form, this helps us identify the best value odds. A data-led approach backed by key stats and the latest team news keeps our analysis sharp.

Key Mercury vs Lynx stats:

• The -6.5 line has been covered by Lynx in 4 of their last 5 games at home.
• The -6.5 line has been covered by Lynx in 14 of their last 20 games at home.
• The -6.5 line has been covered by Lynx in 3 consecutive games at home.
• The -6.5 line has been covered by Lynx in 7 of their last 10 games against Mercury.

Lynx -6.5 Probability

When you look at the latest odds, our pick has a 53.2% chance of landing a return. Taking all factors into consideration, our experts think there’s a stronger chance of success and estimate the probability to be closer to 60%. That means we’re regarding it as a value wager.

If you are looking for bigger odds, then you are able to move the line. Choose from a wide range of options and get rewarded if your selection exceeds expectations.

Our easy-to-use guide showcases the best betting offers available now, complete with free bets and the latest bonus deals.

Best Bet

Lynx -6.5 @ -114 Bet Now

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Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: Alyssa Thomas Over 15.5 Points -100

Alyssa Thomas (Mercury) can be backed to score Over 15.5 points at -100. We are happy to back Overs when it comes to her Player Points, with the line making plenty of appeal.

Latest Alyssa Thomas Player Prop Odds

Points

Over 15.5

-100

Under 15.5

-130

Assists

Over 8.5

-114

Under 8.5

-114

Rebounds

Over 8.5

-123

Under 8.5

-104

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Napheesa Collier Over 7.5 Rebounds -102

Napheesa Collier (Lynx) can be wagered to rack up Over 7.5 rebounds at -102. We recommend taking the pick that she is able to cover the line, with this Player Rebounds bet hopefully providing a return.

Latest Napheesa Collier Player Prop Odds

Points

Over 21.5

-118

Under 21.5

-110

Assists

Over 2.5

-130

Under 2.5

-100

Rebounds

Over 7.5

-112

Under 7.5

-115

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Correct Score Prediction

Mercury 77 - 88 Lynx

There are lots of different ways to back the Lynx on the correct score betting and something like 88-77 in their favor might be along the right lines at massive odds.

Phoenix Mercury vs Minnesota Lynx Odds

The odds and lines are updated on a frequent basis. You might therefore find that they are different to the ones listed for the above betting predictions.

Lynx Have the Shortest Odds to Win

The sportsbooks have Minnesota Lynx at -357 when it comes to the Moneyline betting, implying the favorites are 78% likely to win this game according to the latest odds. Phoenix Mercury are the underdogs at +270 and they’re regarded as least likely to win.

8 is the spread and 159 is the total points line. There are many ways to wager on basketball including the Totals. If you want to wager Over 159, there are odds of -110.

There are a huge selection of game lines and team props when it comes to wagering on women's basketball and we recommend visiting the top betting sites to find the wager that matches your view on the contest.

Moneyline

Mercury

+270

Lynx

-357

Point Spread

Mercury +8

-112

Lynx -8

-108

Total Points

Under 159

-110

Over 159

-110

Napheesa Collier Favorite to Score the Most Baskets

The favorite to hit the most buckets is Napheesa Collier. Odds of -118 can be found for her scoring Over 21.5 points and there is -110 for her to go Under.

Napheesa Collier (Lynx)

Over 21.5

-118

Under 21.5

-110

Alyssa Thomas (Mercury)

Over 15.5

-100

Under 15.5

-130

Kahleah Copper (Mercury)

Over 14.5

-123

Under 14.5

-104

Satou Sabally (Mercury)

Over 14.5

-119

Under 14.5

-109

Kayla McBride (Lynx)

Over 13.5

-122

Under 13.5

-106

Courtney Williams (Lynx)

Over 13.5

+102

Under 13.5

-132

Natisha Hiedeman (Lynx)

Over 9.5

-100

Under 9.5

-130

DeWanna Bonner (Mercury)

Over 9.5

+107

Under 9.5

-139

Bridget Carleton (Lynx)

Over 7.5

+106

Under 7.5

-137

Alanna Smith (Lynx)

Over 6.5

-167

Under 6.5

+128

Monique Akoa Makani (Mercury)

Over 6.5

-108

Under 6.5

-120

Alyssa Thomas (Mercury)

Over 8.5

-114

Under 8.5

-114

Courtney Williams (Lynx)

Over 5.5

-109

Under 5.5

-119

Kayla McBride (Lynx)

Over 3.5

+122

Under 3.5

-159

Natisha Hiedeman (Lynx)

Over 3.5

+134

Under 3.5

-175

Napheesa Collier (Lynx)

Over 2.5

-130

Under 2.5

-100

Satou Sabally (Mercury)

Over 2.5

+104

Under 2.5

-135

Alyssa Thomas (Mercury)

Over 8.5

-123

Under 8.5

-104

Napheesa Collier (Lynx)

Over 7.5

-112

Under 7.5

-115

Satou Sabally (Mercury)

Over 6.5

+118

Under 6.5

-154

Courtney Williams (Lynx)

Over 5.5

+117

Under 5.5

-152

DeWanna Bonner (Mercury)

Over 4.5

-102

Under 4.5

-127

Alanna Smith (Lynx)

Over 4.5

-118

Under 4.5

-110

Bridget Carleton (Lynx)

Over 3.5

+136

Under 3.5

-179

Kahleah Copper (Mercury)

Over 2.5

-172

Under 2.5

+133

Kayla McBride (Lynx)

Over 2.5

-103

Under 2.5

-125

Micro Betting

You don’t have to wait for the final outcome when it comes to basketball micro betting. Instead, there’s the opportunity to wager on live lines which tend to be settled in a shorter space of time and the in-game odds are always changing.

Last 5 & H2H

Latest regular season and playoff games stats.

Phoenix Mercury Stats

Minnesota Lynx Stats

Moneyline

• 6 wins and 4 defeats in the last 10 games
• 6 wins and 4 defeats in the last 10 games on the road

Moneyline

• 7 wins and 3 defeats in the last 10 games
• 8 wins and 2 defeats in the last 10 home games

Point Spread

• +6.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 8 of the last 10 games
• +6.5 Betting Line on the Road: Have covered the spread in 7 of the last 10 games on the road

Point Spread

• -6.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 5 of the last 10 games
• -6.5 Betting Line at Home: Have covered the spread in 6 of the last 10 home games

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 157.10 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals on the Road: An average of 162.70 pts in the previous 10 games on the road
• Over 157.5: Covered in 5 of the previous 10 games
• Over 157.5 on the Road: Covered in 6 of the previous 10 games on the road
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 80.00 pts and allowed 77.10 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals on the Road: Have scored an average of 81.20 pts and allowed 81.50 pts in the last 10 games on the road

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 162.00 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals at Home: An average of 169.60 pts in the previous 10 home games
• Over 157.5: Covered in 6 of the previous 10 games
• Over 157.5 at Home: Covered in 8 of the previous 10 home games
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 85.10 pts and allowed 76.90 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals at Home: Have scored an average of 90.60 pts and allowed 79.00 pts in the last 10 home games

WNBA Table Select Season 20252024202320222021202020192018

Team	W	L	PF	PA	N. Pts	Home	Away	Strk
1  Lynx	34	10	3787	3373	414	20-2	14-8	1W
2  Aces	30	14	3680	3552	128	17-5	13-9	16W
3  Dream	30	14	3712	3378	334	16-6	14-8	6W
4  Mercury	27	17	3643	3525	118	15-7	12-10	3L
5  Liberty	27	17	3713	3534	179	17-5	10-12	3W
6  Fever	24	20	3734	3586	148	13-9	11-11	3W
7  Storm	23	21	3614	3524	90	10-12	13-9	1W
8  Valkyries	23	21	3420	3359	61	14-8	9-13	3L
9  Sparks	21	23	3769	3882	-113	9-13	12-10	1L
10  Mystics	16	28	3394	3589	-195	10-12	6-16	10L
11  Sun	11	33	3337	3782	-445	7-15	4-18	2L
12  Sky	10	34	3335	3777	-442	6-16	4-18	4L
13  Wings	10	34	3594	3871	-277	6-16	4-18	1W