AC Milan vs Fiorentina Prediction, Betting Tips, Lineups & Odds | 19 Oct 2025

Serie A Betting Preview: AC Milan vs Fiorentina

AC Milan host Fiorentina in this Italian Serie A game at San Siro, with kick-off set for 14:45 on Sunday 19 October. Our betting preview features expert predictions, betting tips, the latest odds, H2H stats, team news and both predicted and confirmed lineups.

Get Ready for a Low-Scoring Encounter

We’re expecting a low goal tally when Milan and Fiorentina go up against each other. The Total Goals market provides the opportunity to wager on Under 2.5 and the price of -114 looks attractive.

Feeling our Total Goals pick? Have a quick read of our BetMGM review and grab the latest promo code before you place your bet.

2-2 Draw When Teams Last Clashed

AC Milan faced Juventus away when last in action. It was a 0-0 draw at Allianz Stadium. Massimiliano Allegri's team had 49% possession and recorded four shots on target.

Fiorentina lost when last in action. In a home game at Stadio Artemio Franchi, they were beaten 2-1 by Roma. The Florence outfit recorded three shots on goal and had 45% possession, while Moise Kean found the net.

Head-to-Head Statistics

San Siro played host to the last head-to-head where Milan were at home to Fiorentina. The clash ended in a 2-2 draw. The past 10 H2H matches have seen Milan triumph six times, one draw and three Fiorentina wins.

Serie A		G	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	GD	P
3	AC Milan	6	4	1	1	9	3	6	9:3	13
17	Fiorentina	6	0	3	3	4	8	-4	4:8	3

View Full Table

7 wins, 2 losses and 1 draw, averaging 1.7 goals from 13.8 attempts and 4.7 shots on goal. Milan have had 51.2% possession, 488.1 passes and 4.2 corners per match. On average, they have conceded 0.8 goals from 9.7 attempts and 3.5 shots on goal, while their opponents have earned 4.6 corners.

Top goalscorer Christian Pulisic has found the net 5 times, with Joao Felix and Santiago Gimenez scoring 2 each. Leading assistor is Christian Pulisic with 3, while goalies Mike Maignan and Pietro Terracciano have 4 clean sheets between them.

Fiorentina have won 2, lost 5 and drawn 3, with an average of 1.1 goals from 12.9 attempts and 4.1 shots on goal. There’s been an average of 53.6% possession, 437.1 passes, 4.3 corners in their favour and 4.3 corners against, while they’ve conceded 1.5 goals from 12.1 attempts and 4.3 shots on goal.

Moise Kean and Rolando Mandragora have scored 3, followed by Luca Ranieri with 1. Hans Nicolussi Caviglia, Albert Gudmundsson and Robin Gosens have had 1 assists in the last 10 games, while David de Gea has 2 clean sheets to his name.

Predicted & Confirmed Lineups

AC Milan predicted lineup (3-5-1-1): Mike Maignan (GK), Fikayo Tomori, Matteo Gabbia, Strahinja Pavlovic, Zachary Athekame, Youssouf Fofana, Luka Modric, Samuele Ricci, Davide Bartesaghi, Ruben Loftus-Cheek, Rafael Leao.

Fiorentina predicted lineup (3-5-1-1): David de Gea (GK), Marin Pongracic, Pablo Mari, Luca Ranieri, Dodo, Rolando Mandragora, Hans Nicolussi Caviglia, Nicolo Fagioli, Robin Gosens, Jacopo Fazzini, Roberto Piccoli.

AC Milan vs Fiorentina Prediction & Betting Tips

Our AC Milan vs Fiorentina betting tips provide expert coverage of all major angles, including our main match prediction, top player prop picks, correct score recommendation, corners betting angle and best bet builder insights.

Match Prediction

The best bet for this Serie A game could involve going low on the number of goals. We think that Under 2.5 is crying out to be backed based on the available stats and the odds of -114 look value.

Our football experts are keen to follow the latest form and understand any patterns that emerge. The same applies to injuries that could affect key players. Combined with the best Serie A stats, there is plenty of information to make a verdict.

Key AC Milan vs Fiorentina league stats:

• The 2.5 line hasn’t been covered in 3 of the last 5 Milan games.
• The 2.5 line hasn’t been covered in 11 of the last 20 Milan games at home.
• The 2.5 line hasn’t been covered in the last 3 Fiorentina games on the road.

Under 2.5 Probability

The latest odds imply that our pick has a 53.2% prospect of winning. However, our experts think that the probability is close to 60% taking all factors into consideration. This is why we can recommend this wager.

There are some bigger-priced options for those looking for larger odds and that includes the Result & Total Goals market. Combine Under 2.5 Goals with one of the teams to triumph.

Don’t place a bet without checking our comprehensive guide to today’s best free bets and welcome bonuses.

Our Match Prediction

Under 2.5 Goals @ -114 Watch Live Bet Now

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Correct Score Prediction

Milan 1 - 0 Fiorentina

An exciting bet could be a 1-0 victory in favor of Milan at odds of +525. A correct score wager provides a fun alternative and a nice potential return on the cards.

Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: Rolando Mandragora Over 0.5 Shots On Target +125

Rolando Mandragora (Fiorentina) has racked up at least one shot on goal in seven of his past ten Serie A matches. It certainly looks possible that he will cover the Shots on Target line and there are odds of +125 up for grabs.

Latest Rolando Mandragora Player Prop Odds

Goalscorer

Anytime

+650

First

+1500

Shots On Target

Over 0.5

+125

Under 0.5

-200

Shots

Over 1.5

-100

Under 1.5

-

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Rafael Leão To Score +230

Rafael Leão (Milan) can be backed to be among the goals at +230. We’ll take a chance with this Anytime Goalscorer wager as the betting odds look really appealing.

Latest Rafael Leão Player Prop Odds

Goalscorer

Anytime

+230

First

+525

Shots On Target

Over 0.5

-164

Under 0.5

+105

Shots

Over 2.5

-103

Under 2.5

-

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Corners Prediction

Milan Under 5.5 Corners -125

Milan have failed to cover the 5.5 corners line in three straight games, while Fiorentina have let the opposition have an average of 3.40 corners in their last 5 away matches. We’re backing Milan to fall short when it comes to Team Corners and this pick is on offer at -125.

League Games

League Games

Last 10 Total For Against

Last 10 at Home Total For Against

Last 10 Away Total For Against

Milan

Total

8.80 4.20 4.60

Home

10.00 5.10 4.90

Away

8.80 4.50 4.30

Fiorentina

Total

8.60 4.30 4.30

Home

6.80 2.80 4.00

Away

8.40 4.10 4.30

Latest Corner Odds

Total Corners

Over 9.5

+107

Under 9.5

-154

Milan Corners

Over 5.5

-110

Under 5.5

-125

Fiorentina Corners

Over 3.5

+110

Under 3.5

-150

Most Corners

1

-270

X

+700

2

+285

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AC Milan vs Fiorentina Odds

The odds are updated on a frequent basis. You might therefore find that they are different to the ones listed for the above betting predictions.

Latest 1x2 Odds Suggest Milan Victory

With the bookmakers affording them a 67% chance of winning, AC Milan might be a popular accumulator selection. Their betting odds are -200 when it comes to this Serie A encounter. Fiorentina are the outsiders at +540 which suggests a lower likelihood of winning.

If Milan beat Fiorentina by two or more goals, then the -116 about them on the Asian Handicap -1 pays out. A one-goal win and you have the insurance of getting a full refund.

If you want to bet on the number of goals, you can get similar odds on Under or Over 2.5 Goals. A different wager could be betting BTTS No where you can land -133 when it comes to the Both Teams to Score No market.

If you head to our recommended sports betting sites, then you can’t go wrong with the hundreds of markets available for each Serie A game. Go through the options and choose your football wager.

Full-Time Result

1

-200

X

+320

2

+540

Half-Time Result

1

+107

X

+133

2

+460

Double Chance

1X

-833

12

-455

X2

+145

Draw No Bet

1

-556

2

+340

Asian Handicap

1 Hcp -1

-116

2 Hcp +1

-106

Total Goals

Under 2.5

-114

Over 2.5

-112

Both Teams to Score

Yes

+102

No

-133

Santiago Giménez Top of First Goalscorer List

Favourite Santiago Giménez is now available at +330 to be the First Goalscorer. You will find similar odds apply when it comes to him scoring the last goal.

Santiago Giménez (Milan)

First

+143

Anytime

+330

Christian Pulisic (Milan)

First

+155

Anytime

+380

Rafael Leão (Milan)

First

+230

Anytime

+525

Christopher Nkunku (Milan)

First

+250

Anytime

+550

Moise Kean (Fiorentina)

First

+275

Anytime

+600

Roberto Piccoli (Fiorentina)

First

+360

Anytime

+800

Adrien Rabiot (Milan)

First

+360

Anytime

+850

Edin Dzeko (Fiorentina)

First

+380

Anytime

+900

Alexis Saelemaekers (Milan)

First

+380

Anytime

+900

Ruben Loftus-Cheek (Milan)

First

+380

Anytime

+950

Luka Modric (Milan)

First

+410

Anytime

+950

Albert Gudmundsson (Fiorentina)

First

+575

Anytime

+1400

Davide Bartesaghi (Milan)

First

+600

Anytime

+1600

Youssouf Fofana (Milan)

First

+650

Anytime

+1500

Rolando Mandragora (Fiorentina)

First

+650

Anytime

+1500

Pervis Estupiñán (Milan)

First

+650

Anytime

+1500

Jacopo Fazzini (Fiorentina)

First

+700

Anytime

+1600

Samuele Ricci (Milan)

First

+850

Anytime

+1900

Koni De Winter (Milan)

First

+850

Anytime

+2200

Hans Nicolussi Caviglia (Fiorentina)

First

+900

Anytime

+2000

Moise Kean (Fiorentina)

Over 0.5

-189

Under 0.5

+118

Rafael Leão (Milan)

Over 0.5

-164

Under 0.5

+105

Roberto Piccoli (Fiorentina)

Over 0.5

-147

Under 0.5

-133

Edin Dzeko (Fiorentina)

Over 0.5

-122

Under 0.5

-159

Christopher Nkunku (Milan)

Over 0.5

-111

Under 0.5

-143

Ruben Loftus-Cheek (Milan)

Over 0.5

+120

Under 0.5

-200

Adrien Rabiot (Milan)

Over 0.5

+125

Under 0.5

-200

Rolando Mandragora (Fiorentina)

Over 0.5

+125

Under 0.5

-200

Alexis Saelemaekers (Milan)

Over 0.5

+128

Under 0.5

-200

Santiago Giménez (Milan)

Over 1.5

+130

Under 1.5

-208

Albert Gudmundsson (Fiorentina)

Over 0.5

+135

Under 0.5

-222

Luka Modric (Milan)

Over 0.5

+145

Under 0.5

-238

Christian Pulisic (Milan)

Over 1.5

+160

Under 1.5

-263

Jacopo Fazzini (Fiorentina)

Over 0.5

+185

Under 0.5

-313

Youssouf Fofana (Milan)

Over 0.5

+215

Under 0.5

-400

Hans Nicolussi Caviglia (Fiorentina)

Over 0.5

+230

Under 0.5

-417

Davide Bartesaghi (Milan)

Over 0.5

+240

Under 0.5

-667

Pervis Estupiñán (Milan)

Over 0.5

+250

Under 0.5

-476

Samuele Ricci (Milan)

Over 0.5

+300

Under 0.5

-625

Koni De Winter (Milan)

Over 0.5

+350

Under 0.5

-1667

Santiago Giménez (Milan)

Over 3.5

-122

Under 3.5

-

Rafael Leão (Milan)

Over 2.5

-103

Under 2.5

-

Roberto Piccoli (Fiorentina)

Over 2.5

+128

Under 2.5

-

Christopher Nkunku (Milan)

Over 1.5

-143

Under 1.5

-

Adrien Rabiot (Milan)

Over 1.5

+110

Under 1.5

-

Edin Dzeko (Fiorentina)

Over 1.5

-182

Under 1.5

-

Ruben Loftus-Cheek (Milan)

Over 1.5

-115

Under 1.5

-

Luka Modric (Milan)

Over 1.5

+138

Under 1.5

-

Albert Gudmundsson (Fiorentina)

Over 1.5

+110

Under 1.5

-

Rolando Mandragora (Fiorentina)

Over 1.5

-100

Under 1.5

-

Davide Bartesaghi (Milan)

Over 0.5

-156

Under 0.5

-

Youssouf Fofana (Milan)

Over 0.5

-244

Under 0.5

-

Koni De Winter (Milan)

Over 0.5

+110

Under 0.5

-

Milan Undefeated in Previous Five H2H San Siro Clashes

Milan have five wins, three losses and two draws in the last 10 home games, scoring an average of 1.50 goals per match and conceding 1.10.

Fiorentina haven’t been beaten in four straight games away from home. The Florence outfit have finished with four draws, four defeats and two win in the previous 10 away games, scoring an average of 1.00 goals per match and conceding 1.20.

When previously meeting at San Siro, Milan and Fiorentina played out a 2-2 draw. We’ve seen the previous 6 H2H meetings at San Siro involve four triumphs for Milan, one draw and one win for Fiorentina.

Last 10 League Games		W-D-L	G	GF	GA	O2.5	U2.5	B-Y	B-No
AC Milan Home Stats		5-2-3	2.60	1.50	1.10	6	4	7	3
Fiorentina Away Stats		2-4-4	2.20	1.00	1.20	5	5	6	4

• W-D-L = Wins-Draws-Losses
• G = Avg. Goals
• GF = Avg. Goals For
• GA = Avg. Goals Against
• O2.5 = Matches Over 2.5 Goals
• U2.5 = Matches Under 2.5 Goals
• B-Y = Matches BTTS Yes
• B-No = Matches BTTS No

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AC Milan vs Fiorentina Lineups & Team News

The Milan vs Fiorentina team news could change everything — review it before betting. Get the predicted and confirmed Serie A lineups plus the latest injury updates from us.

AC Milan Team Page Fiorentina Team Page