AC Milan vs Fiorentina Prediction, Betting Tips, Lineups & Odds | 19 Oct 2025

Serie A Betting Preview: AC Milan vs Fiorentina

AC Milan host Fiorentina in this Italian Serie A game at San Siro, with kick-off set for 14:45 on Sunday 19 October. Our betting preview features expert predictions, betting tips, the latest odds, H2H stats, team news and both predicted and confirmed lineups.

We’re expecting a low goal tally when Milan and Fiorentina go up against each other. The Total Goals market provides the opportunity to wager on Under 2.5 and the price of -114 looks attractive.

Feeling our Total Goals pick? Have a quick read of our BetMGM review and grab the latest promo code before you place your bet.

AC Milan faced Juventus away when last in action. It was a 0-0 draw at Allianz Stadium. Massimiliano Allegri's team had 49% possession and recorded four shots on target.

Fiorentina lost when last in action. In a home game at Stadio Artemio Franchi, they were beaten 2-1 by Roma. The Florence outfit recorded three shots on goal and had 45% possession, while Moise Kean found the net.

Head-to-Head Statistics

San Siro played host to the last head-to-head where Milan were at home to Fiorentina. The clash ended in a 2-2 draw. The past 10 H2H matches have seen Milan triumph six times, one draw and three Fiorentina wins.

Serie A		G	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	GD	P
1	AC Milan	13	8	4	1	19	9	10	19:9	28
19	Fiorentina	13	0	6	7	10	21	-11	10:21	6

View Full Table

7 wins, 2 losses and 1 draw, averaging 1.7 goals from 13.8 attempts and 4.7 shots on goal. Milan have had 51.2% possession, 488.1 passes and 4.2 corners per match. On average, they have conceded 0.8 goals from 9.7 attempts and 3.5 shots on goal, while their opponents have earned 4.6 corners.

Top goalscorer Christian Pulisic has found the net 5 times, with Joao Felix and Santiago Gimenez scoring 2 each. Leading assistor is Christian Pulisic with 3, while goalies Mike Maignan and Pietro Terracciano have 4 clean sheets between them.

Fiorentina have won 2, lost 5 and drawn 3, with an average of 1.1 goals from 12.9 attempts and 4.1 shots on goal. There’s been an average of 53.6% possession, 437.1 passes, 4.3 corners in their favour and 4.3 corners against, while they’ve conceded 1.5 goals from 12.1 attempts and 4.3 shots on goal.

Moise Kean and Rolando Mandragora have scored 3, followed by Luca Ranieri with 1. Hans Nicolussi Caviglia, Albert Gudmundsson and Robin Gosens have had 1 assists in the last 10 games, while David de Gea has 2 clean sheets to his name.

Confirmed Lineups

AC Milan confirmed lineup (3-5-1-1): Mike Maignan (GK), Fikayo Tomori, Matteo Gabbia, Strahinja Pavlovic, Zachary Athekame, Youssouf Fofana, Luka Modric, Samuele Ricci, Davide Bartesaghi, Alexis Saelemaekers, Rafael Leao.

Fiorentina confirmed lineup (3-5-1-1): David de Gea (GK), Marin Pongracic, Pablo Mari, Luca Ranieri, Dodo, Rolando Mandragora, Hans Nicolussi Caviglia, Nicolo Fagioli, Robin Gosens, Jacopo Fazzini, Moise Kean.

AC Milan vs Fiorentina Prediction & Betting Tips

Our AC Milan vs Fiorentina betting tips provide expert coverage of all major angles, including our main match prediction, top player prop picks, correct score recommendation, corners betting angle and best bet builder insights.

Match Prediction

The best bet for this Serie A game could involve going low on the number of goals. We think that Under 2.5 is crying out to be backed based on the available stats and the odds of -114 look value.

Our football experts are keen to follow the latest form and understand any patterns that emerge. The same applies to injuries that could affect key players. Combined with the best Serie A stats, there is plenty of information to make a verdict.

Key AC Milan vs Fiorentina league stats:

• The 2.5 line hasn’t been covered in 3 of the last 5 Milan games.
• The 2.5 line hasn’t been covered in 11 of the last 20 Milan games at home.
• The 2.5 line hasn’t been covered in the last 3 Fiorentina games on the road.

The latest odds imply that our pick has a 53.2% prospect of winning. However, our experts think that the probability is close to 60% taking all factors into consideration. This is why we can recommend this wager.

There are some bigger-priced options for those looking for larger odds and that includes the Result & Total Goals market. Combine Under 2.5 Goals with one of the teams to triumph.

Don’t place a bet without checking our comprehensive guide to today’s best free bets and welcome bonuses.

Our Match Prediction

Under 2.5 Goals @ -114 Bet Now

BetMGM Promo Up To $1500 in Bonus Bets Get Bonus T&C apply. Gamble responsibly 18+

Gamble responsibly 18+. All odds are correct at time of publishing and are subject to change. To use the Bookmaker Live Streaming services you will need to be logged in and have a funded account or to have placed a bet in the last 24 hours. Geo-restrictions apply.

Correct Score Prediction

Milan 1 - 0 Fiorentina

An exciting bet could be a 1-0 victory in favor of Milan at odds of +550. A correct score wager provides a fun alternative and a nice potential return on the cards.

Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: Rolando Mandragora Over 0.5 Shots On Target +125

Rolando Mandragora (Fiorentina) has racked up at least one shot on goal in seven of his past ten Serie A matches. It certainly looks possible that he will cover the Shots on Target line and there are odds of +125 up for grabs.

Latest Rolando Mandragora Player Prop Odds

Goalscorer

Anytime

+525

First

+1200

Shots On Target

Over 0.5

+120

Under 0.5

-192

Shots

Over 1.5

-159

Under 1.5

-

T&C apply. Gamble responsibly 18+

---

Rafael Leão To Score +230

Rafael Leão (Milan) can be backed to be among the goals at +230. We’ll take a chance with this Anytime Goalscorer wager as the betting odds look really appealing.

Latest Rafael Leão Player Prop Odds

Goalscorer

Anytime

+250

First

+600

Shots On Target

Over 0.5

-182

Under 0.5

+112

Shots

Over 2.5

-111

Under 2.5

-

T&C apply. Gamble responsibly 18+

Corners Prediction

Milan Under 5.5 Corners -125

Milan have failed to cover the 5.5 corners line in three straight games, while Fiorentina have let the opposition have an average of 3.40 corners in their last 5 away matches. We’re backing Milan to fall short when it comes to Team Corners and this pick is on offer at -125.

League Games

League Games

Last 10 Total For Against

Last 10 at Home Total For Against

Last 10 Away Total For Against

Milan

Total

8.80 4.20 4.60

Home

10.00 5.10 4.90

Away

8.80 4.50 4.30

Fiorentina

Total

8.60 4.30 4.30

Home

6.80 2.80 4.00

Away

8.40 4.10 4.30

Latest Corner Odds

Total Corners

Over 9.5

+104

Under 9.5

-147

Milan Corners

Over 5.5

-108

Under 5.5

-132

Fiorentina Corners

Over 3.5

-112

Under 3.5

-127

Most Corners

1

-217

X

+650

2

+235

T&C apply. Gamble responsibly 18+

AC Milan vs Fiorentina Odds

The odds are updated on a frequent basis. You might therefore find that they are different to the ones listed for the above betting predictions.

With the bookmakers affording them a 60% chance of winning, AC Milan might be a popular accumulator selection. Their betting odds are -152 when it comes to this Serie A encounter. Fiorentina are the outsiders at +430 which suggests a lower likelihood of winning.

Milan are -116 if you take them on the Asian Handicap at -0.75. Stakes are split between -0.5 and -1 which means you need a 2+ goal win for a full payout. A one-goal victory means a return with half your stake and the other half refunded.

If you want to bet on the number of goals, you can get similar odds on Under or Over 2.5 Goals. For Both Teams to Score betting opportunities, the market suggests that BTTS Yes and No are both equally as likely to happen.

If you head to our recommended sports betting sites, then you can’t go wrong with the hundreds of markets available for each Serie A game. Go through the options and choose your football wager.

Full-Time Result

1

-152

X

+265

2

+430

Half-Time Result

1

+123

X

+123

2

+420

Double Chance

1X

-667

12

-357

X2

+112

Draw No Bet

1

-400

2

+265

Asian Handicap

1 Hcp -0.75

-116

2 Hcp +0.75

-108

Total Goals

Under 2.5

-123

Over 2.5

-104

Both Teams to Score

Yes

-109

No

-122

Favourite Santiago Giménez is now available at +360 to be the First Goalscorer. You will find similar odds apply when it comes to him scoring the last goal.

Santiago Giménez (Milan)

First

+155

Anytime

+360

Christian Pulisic (Milan)

First

+155

Anytime

+380

Rafael Leão (Milan)

First

+250

Anytime

+600

Christopher Nkunku (Milan)

First

+270

Anytime

+575

Moise Kean (Fiorentina)

First

+275

Anytime

+600

Roberto Piccoli (Fiorentina)

First

+330

Anytime

+750

Edin Dzeko (Fiorentina)

First

+360

Anytime

+800

Adrien Rabiot (Milan)

First

+380

Anytime

+900

Alexis Saelemaekers (Milan)

First

+380

Anytime

+900

Ruben Loftus-Cheek (Milan)

First

+400

Anytime

+950

Luka Modric (Milan)

First

+420

Anytime

+950

Rolando Mandragora (Fiorentina)

First

+525

Anytime

+1200

Albert Gudmundsson (Fiorentina)

First

+575

Anytime

+1200

Davide Bartesaghi (Milan)

First

+650

Anytime

+1700

Youssouf Fofana (Milan)

First

+700

Anytime

+1500

Pervis Estupiñán (Milan)

First

+700

Anytime

+1500

Jacopo Fazzini (Fiorentina)

First

+750

Anytime

+1500

Koni De Winter (Milan)

First

+850

Anytime

+2200

Samuele Ricci (Milan)

First

+900

Anytime

+2000

Hans Nicolussi Caviglia (Fiorentina)

First

+950

Anytime

+2000

Moise Kean (Fiorentina)

Over 0.5

-189

Under 0.5

+118

Rafael Leão (Milan)

Over 0.5

-182

Under 0.5

+112

Roberto Piccoli (Fiorentina)

Over 0.5

-141

Under 0.5

-137

Edin Dzeko (Fiorentina)

Over 0.5

-119

Under 0.5

-164

Christopher Nkunku (Milan)

Over 0.5

-108

Under 0.5

-147

Rolando Mandragora (Fiorentina)

Over 0.5

+120

Under 0.5

-192

Alexis Saelemaekers (Milan)

Over 0.5

+128

Under 0.5

-200

Adrien Rabiot (Milan)

Over 0.5

+130

Under 0.5

-208

Ruben Loftus-Cheek (Milan)

Over 0.5

+132

Under 0.5

-217

Santiago Giménez (Milan)

Over 1.5

+143

Under 1.5

-233

Albert Gudmundsson (Fiorentina)

Over 0.5

+143

Under 0.5

-233

Luka Modric (Milan)

Over 0.5

+155

Under 0.5

-263

Christian Pulisic (Milan)

Over 1.5

+160

Under 1.5

-263

Youssouf Fofana (Milan)

Over 0.5

+190

Under 0.5

-333

Jacopo Fazzini (Fiorentina)

Over 0.5

+200

Under 0.5

-333

Hans Nicolussi Caviglia (Fiorentina)

Over 0.5

+240

Under 0.5

-435

Davide Bartesaghi (Milan)

Over 0.5

+250

Under 0.5

-714

Pervis Estupiñán (Milan)

Over 0.5

+260

Under 0.5

-526

Samuele Ricci (Milan)

Over 0.5

+320

Under 0.5

-714

Koni De Winter (Milan)

Over 0.5

+380

Under 0.5

-2000

Santiago Giménez (Milan)

Over 3.5

-115

Under 3.5

-

Rafael Leão (Milan)

Over 2.5

-111

Under 2.5

-

Christopher Nkunku (Milan)

Over 2.5

+117

Under 2.5

-

Roberto Piccoli (Fiorentina)

Over 2.5

+128

Under 2.5

-

Edin Dzeko (Fiorentina)

Over 1.5

-182

Under 1.5

-

Adrien Rabiot (Milan)

Over 1.5

+112

Under 1.5

-

Ruben Loftus-Cheek (Milan)

Over 1.5

-109

Under 1.5

-

Luka Modric (Milan)

Over 1.5

+143

Under 1.5

-

Rolando Mandragora (Fiorentina)

Over 1.5

-159

Under 1.5

-

Albert Gudmundsson (Fiorentina)

Over 1.5

+118

Under 1.5

-

Youssouf Fofana (Milan)

Over 1.5

+155

Under 1.5

-

Davide Bartesaghi (Milan)

Over 0.5

-149

Under 0.5

-

Pervis Estupiñán (Milan)

Over 0.5

-152

Under 0.5

-

Koni De Winter (Milan)

Over 0.5

+115

Under 0.5

-

Milan have five wins, three losses and two draws in the last 10 home games, scoring an average of 1.50 goals per match and conceding 1.10.

Fiorentina haven’t been beaten in four straight games away from home. The Florence outfit have finished with four draws, four defeats and two win in the previous 10 away games, scoring an average of 1.00 goals per match and conceding 1.20.

When previously meeting at San Siro, Milan and Fiorentina played out a 2-2 draw. We’ve seen the previous 6 H2H meetings at San Siro involve four triumphs for Milan, one draw and one win for Fiorentina.

Last 10 League Games		W-D-L	G	GF	GA	O2.5	U2.5	B-Y	B-No
AC Milan Home Stats		5-2-3	2.60	1.50	1.10	6	4	7	3
Fiorentina Away Stats		2-4-4	2.20	1.00	1.20	5	5	6	4

• W-D-L = Wins-Draws-Losses
• G = Avg. Goals
• GF = Avg. Goals For
• GA = Avg. Goals Against
• O2.5 = Matches Over 2.5 Goals
• U2.5 = Matches Under 2.5 Goals
• B-Y = Matches BTTS Yes
• B-No = Matches BTTS No

AC Milan vs Fiorentina Lineups & Team News

The Milan vs Fiorentina team news could change everything — review it before betting. Get the predicted and confirmed Serie A lineups plus the latest injury updates from us.

AC Milan Team Page Fiorentina Team Page

Top Football Pages