AC Milan vs Napoli Prediction, Betting Tips, Lineups & Odds | 28 Sep 2025

Serie A Betting Preview: AC Milan vs Napoli

AC Milan host Napoli in this Italian Serie A encounter at San Siro, with kick-off set for 14:45 on Sunday 28 September. Our betting preview features expert predictions, betting tips, the latest odds, H2H stats, team news and both predicted and confirmed lineups.

We Think Under 2.5 Goals is the Value Bet

If you agree with our view of a low-scoring contest between Milan and Napoli, then you can get odds of -154 about Under 2.5 on the Total Goals market. We think this has a strong chance of landing.

Fancy our Total Goals pick? Check out our in-depth BetMGM review first, then grab the latest bonus promo code to get the best value on your bet.

2-1 Win for Napoli in Last Head-to-Head

AC Milan have got the win in their last three games. Most recently, a 3-0 victory occurred on the road when meeting Udinese at Stadio Friuli. The Lombardy side had most of the ball recording 60% possession and six shots on target, with Christian Pulisic bagging two goals and Youssouf Fofana scoring the other.

Five days ago, Milan won 3-0 when hosting Lecce in the Coppa Italia.

Napoli made it four consecutive wins after a 3-2 home success over Pisa at Diego Armando Maradona. Gli Azzurri had six shots on goal and boasted 64% possession, while Billy Gilmour, Leonardo Spinazzola and Lorenzo Lucca were all on target.

Head-to-Head Statistics

Napoli have claimed back-to-back wins over Milan. There was a 2-1 home triumph at Diego Armando Maradona after winning 2-0 away at San Siro. In the past 10 H2H meetings, we have seen four wins for each team and two draws.

Serie A		G	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	GD	P
1	Napoli	4	4	0	0	9	3	6	9:3	12
3	AC Milan	4	3	0	1	7	2	5	7:2	9

View Full Table

Milan have 7 wins and 3 losses, averaging 1.7 goals from 14.1 attempts and 4.3 shots on goal. I Rossoneri have averaged 52.5% possession, 496.8 passes and 5.0 corners per game, conceding 0.8 goals and 4.5 corners from 8.7 attempts and 2.9 shots on goal.

Top scorer Christian Pulisic has found the net 5 times, with Santiago Gimenez and Joao Felix getting 3 and 2 respectively. The leading assistors are Christian Pulisic and Samuel Chukwueze with 2, while goalie Mike Maignan has recorded 3 clean sheets.

Napoli have won 8 and drawn 2, averaging 5.2 shots on goal, 14.4 attempts and 1.7 goals. The Naples side average 61.1% possession, 540.6 passes, 5.4 corners taken and 3.4 corners against them, while 0.5 goals have been conceded from 8.6 attempts and 2.0 shots on goal.

Scott McTominay has top scored with 5, while Kevin De Bruyne, Romelu Lukaku and Giacomo Raspadori are next on 2. Scott McTominay and Matteo Politano have clocked up 3 assists, with Alex Meret keeping 7 clean sheets in the last 10 games.

Predicted & Confirmed Lineups

AC Milan predicted lineup (3-5-2): Mike Maignan (GK), Fikayo Tomori, Matteo Gabbia, Strahinja Pavlovic, Alexis Saelemaekers, Youssouf Fofana, Luka Modric, Adrien Rabiot, Pervis Estupiñán, Christian Pulisic, Santiago Giménez.

Napoli predicted lineup (4-1-4-1): Alex Meret (GK), Giovanni Di Lorenzo, Amir Rrahmani, Juan Jesus, Leonardo Spinazzola, Stanislav Lobotka, Matteo Politano, Andre Zambo Anguissa, Kevin De Bruyne, Scott McTominay, Rasmus Højlund.

AC Milan vs Napoli Prediction & Betting Tips

Be fully equipped for AC Milan vs Napoli with our betting guide, offering a key match prediction, a correct score recommendation, valuable corners advice, top player prop picks and a bet builder tailored for value.

Match Prediction

We don’t think the net will bulge too many times in this Serie A game. For this reason, we’re backing Under 2.5 Goals and this selection is attractively priced at -154.

Having the inside track for injuries and accessing the form guide are important before coming up with football predictions. It’s also key to identify the key numbers and that is why our Serie A experts sometimes take a data-led approach.

Key AC Milan vs Napoli league stats:

• The 2.5 line hasn’t been covered in 3 of the last 5 Milan games.
• The 2.5 line hasn’t been covered in 11 of the last 20 Milan games at home.
• The 2.5 line hasn’t been covered in 4 of the last 5 Napoli games on the road.
• The 2.5 line hasn’t been covered in 7 of the last 10 Napoli games.

Under 2.5 Probability

According to the best betting sites, our pick has a 60.6% chance of landing a return. However, our experts have this number between 65-70% based on their in-depth research. That means we’re regarding it as a value bet.

If you are in search of a bigger price, then you can add Under 2.5 Goals with other picks as part of a Bet Builder. Load up the bet slip with the various predictions you want to make.

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Our Match Prediction

Under 2.5 Goals @ -154 Watch Live Bet Now

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Correct Score Prediction

Milan 1 - 1 Napoli

An exciting wager could be the game to end in a 1-1 draw at odds of +480. A correct score bet provides a fun alternative and a nice potential return on the cards.

Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: Matteo Politano Over 1.5 Shots +128

Matteo Politano (Napoli) has totalled over 1.5 shots in five straight Serie A games on the road. We think that some value can be landed by wagering on Player Shots and you can secure +128 that he goes over the line.

Latest Matteo Politano Player Prop Odds

Goalscorer

Anytime

+600

First

+1300

Shots On Target

Over 0.5

+185

Under 0.5

-333

Shots

Over 1.5

+128

Under 1.5

-

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Kevin De Bruyne to Score +420

Kevin De Bruyne (Napoli) has racked up two goals in his past four Serie A matches. This statistic guides us towards Anytime Goalscorer where we’re able to back him to find the net at appealing odds of +420.

Latest Kevin De Bruyne Player Prop Odds

Goalscorer

Anytime

+420

First

+850

Shots On Target

Over 0.5

+112

Under 0.5

-175

Shots

Over 1.5

-154

Under 1.5

-

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Corners Prediction

Milan To Have Most Corners -120

In their past four games, Milan have had the most corners. Odds of -120 look value when it comes to Milan having the most corners.

League Games

League Games

Last 10 Total For Against

Last 10 at Home Total For Against

Last 10 Away Total For Against

Milan

Total

9.50 5.00 4.50

Home

11.10 5.80 5.30

Away

9.70 5.60 4.10

Napoli

Total

8.80 5.40 3.40

Home

10.00 6.50 3.50

Away

8.60 3.90 4.70

Latest Corner Odds

Total Corners

Over 9.5

-112

Under 9.5

-127

Milan Corners

Over 4.5

-150

Under 4.5

+110

Napoli Corners

Over 4.5

+120

Under 4.5

-163

Most Corners

1

-122

X

+650

2

+138

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AC Milan vs Napoli Odds

The odds are updated on a frequent basis. You might therefore find that they are different to the ones listed for the above betting predictions.

Betting Sites Predicting a Close Encounter

Napoli are available at betting odds of +205 to beat AC Milan, with their opponents trading at +135 with the bookies. Should you wish to back the draw, it’s on offer at +220 for this Serie A encounter.

If you think Milan can overcome Napoli, then there’s an Asian Handicap option where the former are -100 with a -0.25 deficit. There’s half your money back in the event of a draw.

For those anticipating a low-scoring contest, Under 2.5 is the market leader for the Total Goals market. Both Teams to Score is a two-way market and, when it comes to latest odds, there’s not much to separate Yes and No.

The leading football betting sites provide hundreds of markets for the latest Serie A games. Be sure to peruse all of the available options before going ahead with your preferred wager.

Full-Time Result

1

+135

X

+220

2

+205

Half-Time Result

1

+200

X

+108

2

+265

Double Chance

1X

-278

12

-303

X2

-179

Draw No Bet

1

-154

2

+112

Asian Handicap

1 Hcp -0.25

-100

2 Hcp +0.25

-125

Total Goals

Under 2.5

-154

Over 2.5

+120

Both Teams to Score

Yes

-111

No

-119

Santiago Giménez Top of First Goalscorer List

Favourite Santiago Giménez is priced at +450 to be the first player to find the net. There’s also the opportunity to back him to score any time at odds of +215.

Santiago Giménez (Milan)

First

+215

Anytime

+450

Lorenzo Lucca (Napoli)

First

+240

Anytime

+500

Christian Pulisic (Milan)

First

+245

Anytime

+525

Rafael Leão (Milan)

First

+330

Anytime

+700

Scott McTominay (Napoli)

First

+350

Anytime

+750

Rasmus Højlund (Napoli)

First

+400

Anytime

+800

Kevin De Bruyne (Napoli)

First

+420

Anytime

+850

Noa Lang (Napoli)

First

+460

Anytime

+1000

Eljif Elmas (Napoli)

First

+480

Anytime

+1000

Alexis Saelemaekers (Milan)

First

+500

Anytime

+1100

Adrien Rabiot (Milan)

First

+500

Anytime

+1100

Ruben Loftus-Cheek (Milan)

First

+525

Anytime

+1200

Luka Modric (Milan)

First

+575

Anytime

+1150

Matteo Politano (Napoli)

First

+600

Anytime

+1300

Miguel Gutiérrez (Napoli)

First

+700

Anytime

+1500

Davide Bartesaghi (Milan)

First

+850

Anytime

+2200

Pervis Estupiñán (Milan)

First

+900

Anytime

+1900

Youssouf Fofana (Milan)

First

+950

Anytime

+2000

Frank Anguissa (Napoli)

First

+1000

Anytime

+2000

Santiago Giménez (Milan)

Over 0.5

-233

Under 0.5

+145

Christian Pulisic (Milan)

Over 0.5

-182

Under 0.5

+115

Lorenzo Lucca (Napoli)

Over 0.5

-161

Under 0.5

+102

Rafael Leão (Milan)

Over 0.5

-118

Under 0.5

-133

Scott McTominay (Napoli)

Over 0.5

-114

Under 0.5

-139

Kevin De Bruyne (Napoli)

Over 0.5

+112

Under 0.5

-175

Rasmus Højlund (Napoli)

Over 0.5

+120

Under 0.5

-192

Noa Lang (Napoli)

Over 0.5

+143

Under 0.5

-233

Alexis Saelemaekers (Milan)

Over 0.5

+145

Under 0.5

-238

Ruben Loftus-Cheek (Milan)

Over 0.5

+150

Under 0.5

-244

Eljif Elmas (Napoli)

Over 0.5

+155

Under 0.5

-250

Adrien Rabiot (Milan)

Over 0.5

+155

Under 0.5

-263

Luka Modric (Milan)

Over 0.5

+185

Under 0.5

-333

Matteo Politano (Napoli)

Over 0.5

+185

Under 0.5

-333

Miguel Gutiérrez (Napoli)

Over 0.5

+230

Under 0.5

-417

Youssouf Fofana (Milan)

Over 0.5

+270

Under 0.5

-556

Davide Bartesaghi (Milan)

Over 0.5

+285

Under 0.5

-909

Pervis Estupiñán (Milan)

Over 0.5

+290

Under 0.5

-588

Santiago Giménez (Milan)

Over 2.5

-147

Under 2.5

-

Lorenzo Lucca (Napoli)

Over 2.5

-120

Under 2.5

-

Christian Pulisic (Milan)

Over 2.5

+102

Under 2.5

-

Scott McTominay (Napoli)

Over 2.5

+138

Under 2.5

-

Rafael Leão (Milan)

Over 1.5

-172

Under 1.5

-

Rasmus Højlund (Napoli)

Over 1.5

-114

Under 1.5

-

Kevin De Bruyne (Napoli)

Over 1.5

-154

Under 1.5

-

Noa Lang (Napoli)

Over 1.5

-100

Under 1.5

-

Eljif Elmas (Napoli)

Over 1.5

+117

Under 1.5

-

Alexis Saelemaekers (Milan)

Over 1.5

+120

Under 1.5

-

Ruben Loftus-Cheek (Milan)

Over 1.5

+125

Under 1.5

-

Matteo Politano (Napoli)

Over 1.5

+128

Under 1.5

-

Adrien Rabiot (Milan)

Over 0.5

-270

Under 0.5

-

Luka Modric (Milan)

Over 0.5

-213

Under 0.5

-

Davide Bartesaghi (Milan)

Over 0.5

-116

Under 0.5

-

Youssouf Fofana (Milan)

Over 0.5

-185

Under 0.5

-

Five Wins for Milan in Previous Ten Home Games

Milan have secured five victories, three defeats and two draws in the previous 10 home games, netting an average of 1.40 goals per match and conceding 1.00.

Napoli have swerved defeat on their travels in the previous seven matches. Antonio Conte's team have managed five draws, four victories and one loss in the last 10 away matches, recording an average of 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.70.

In the last meeting at San Siro, Napoli defeated Milan by a 2-0 scoreline. The past 8 H2H meetings at San Siro have included four Napoli victories, two draws and two Milan wins.

Last 10 League Games		W-D-L	G	GF	GA	O2.5	U2.5	B-Y	B-No
AC Milan Home Stats		5-2-3	2.40	1.40	1.00	5	5	6	4
Napoli Away Stats		4-5-1	1.90	1.20	0.70	3	7	5	5

• W-D-L = Wins-Draws-Losses
• G = Avg. Goals
• GF = Avg. Goals For
• GA = Avg. Goals Against
• O2.5 = Matches Over 2.5 Goals
• U2.5 = Matches Under 2.5 Goals
• B-Y = Matches BTTS Yes
• B-No = Matches BTTS No

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AC Milan vs Napoli Lineups & Team News

Always review the Milan vs Napoli team news before locking in your bets. Get the predicted and confirmed Serie A lineups plus the latest injury updates from us.

AC Milan Team Page Napoli Team Page