AC Milan vs Napoli Prediction, Betting Tips, Lineups & Odds | 28 Sep 2025

Serie A Betting Preview: AC Milan vs Napoli

AC Milan host Napoli in this Italian Serie A encounter at San Siro, with kick-off set for 14:45 on Sunday 28 September. Our betting preview features expert predictions, betting tips, the latest odds, H2H stats, team news and both predicted and confirmed lineups.

We Think Under 2.5 Goals is the Value Bet

If you agree with our view of a low-scoring contest between Milan and Napoli, then you can get odds of -154 about Under 2.5 on the Total Goals market. We think this has a strong chance of landing.

Fancy our Total Goals pick? Check out our in-depth BetMGM review first, then grab the latest bonus promo code to get the best value on your bet.

2-1 Win for Napoli in Last Head-to-Head

AC Milan have got the win in their last three games. Most recently, a 3-0 victory occurred on the road when meeting Udinese at Stadio Friuli. The Lombardy side had most of the ball recording 60% possession and six shots on target, with Christian Pulisic bagging two goals and Youssouf Fofana scoring the other.

Five days ago, Milan won 3-0 when hosting Lecce in the Coppa Italia.

Napoli made it four consecutive wins after a 3-2 home success over Pisa at Diego Armando Maradona. Gli Azzurri had six shots on goal and boasted 64% possession, while Billy Gilmour, Leonardo Spinazzola and Lorenzo Lucca were all on target.

Head-to-Head Statistics

Napoli have claimed back-to-back wins over Milan. There was a 2-1 home triumph at Diego Armando Maradona after winning 2-0 away at San Siro. In the past 10 H2H meetings, we have seen four wins for each team and two draws.

Serie A		G	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	GD	P
3	AC Milan	11	6	4	1	17	9	8	17:9	22
4	Napoli	11	7	1	3	16	10	6	16:10	22

View Full Table

Milan have 7 wins and 3 losses, averaging 1.7 goals from 14.1 attempts and 4.3 shots on goal. I Rossoneri have averaged 52.5% possession, 496.8 passes and 5.0 corners per game, conceding 0.8 goals and 4.5 corners from 8.7 attempts and 2.9 shots on goal.

Top scorer Christian Pulisic has found the net 5 times, with Santiago Gimenez and Joao Felix getting 3 and 2 respectively. The leading assistors are Christian Pulisic and Samuel Chukwueze with 2, while goalie Mike Maignan has recorded 3 clean sheets.

Napoli have won 8 and drawn 2, averaging 5.2 shots on goal, 14.4 attempts and 1.7 goals. The Naples side average 61.1% possession, 540.6 passes, 5.4 corners taken and 3.4 corners against them, while 0.5 goals have been conceded from 8.6 attempts and 2.0 shots on goal.

Scott McTominay has top scored with 5, while Kevin De Bruyne, Romelu Lukaku and Giacomo Raspadori are next on 2. Scott McTominay and Matteo Politano have clocked up 3 assists, with Alex Meret keeping 7 clean sheets in the last 10 games.

Confirmed Lineups

AC Milan confirmed lineup (3-5-2): Mike Maignan (GK), Fikayo Tomori, Matteo Gabbia, Strahinja Pavlovic, Alexis Saelemaekers, Youssouf Fofana, Luka Modric, Adrien Rabiot, Pervis Estupinan, Santiago Gimenez, Christian Pulisic.

Napoli confirmed lineup (4-1-4-1): Alex Meret (GK), Giovanni Di Lorenzo, Luca Marianucci, Juan Jesus, Miguel Gutierrez, Stanislav Lobotka, Matteo Politano, Andre-Frank Zambo Anguissa, Kevin De Bruyne, Scott McTominay, Rasmus Hoejlund.

AC Milan vs Napoli Prediction & Betting Tips

Be fully equipped for AC Milan vs Napoli with our betting guide, offering a key match prediction, a correct score recommendation, valuable corners advice, top player prop picks and a bet builder tailored for value.

Match Prediction

We don’t think the net will bulge too many times in this Serie A game. For this reason, we’re backing Under 2.5 Goals and this selection is attractively priced at -154.

Having the inside track for injuries and accessing the form guide are important before coming up with football predictions. It’s also key to identify the key numbers and that is why our Serie A experts sometimes take a data-led approach.

Key AC Milan vs Napoli league stats:

• The 2.5 line hasn’t been covered in 3 of the last 5 Milan games.
• The 2.5 line hasn’t been covered in 11 of the last 20 Milan games at home.
• The 2.5 line hasn’t been covered in 4 of the last 5 Napoli games on the road.
• The 2.5 line hasn’t been covered in 7 of the last 10 Napoli games.

Under 2.5 Probability

According to the best betting sites, our pick has a 60.6% chance of landing a return. However, our experts have this number between 65-70% based on their in-depth research. That means we’re regarding it as a value bet.

If you are in search of a bigger price, then you can add Under 2.5 Goals with other picks as part of a Bet Builder. Load up the bet slip with the various predictions you want to make.

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Our Match Prediction

Under 2.5 Goals @ -154 Bet Now

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Correct Score Prediction

Milan 1 - 1 Napoli

An exciting wager could be the game to end in a 1-1 draw at odds of +480. A correct score bet provides a fun alternative and a nice potential return on the cards.

Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: Matteo Politano Over 1.5 Shots +128

Matteo Politano (Napoli) has totalled over 1.5 shots in five straight Serie A games on the road. We think that some value can be landed by wagering on Player Shots and you can secure +128 that he goes over the line.

Latest Matteo Politano Player Prop Odds

Goalscorer

Anytime

+650

First

+1400

Shots On Target

Over 0.5

+205

Under 0.5

-357

Shots

Over 1.5

+140

Under 1.5

-

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Kevin De Bruyne to Score +420

Kevin De Bruyne (Napoli) has racked up two goals in his past four Serie A matches. This statistic guides us towards Anytime Goalscorer where we’re able to back him to find the net at appealing odds of +420.

Latest Kevin De Bruyne Player Prop Odds

Goalscorer

Anytime

+430

First

+900

Shots On Target

Over 0.5

+102

Under 0.5

-159

Shots

Over 1.5

-149

Under 1.5

-

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Corners Prediction

Milan To Have Most Corners -120

In their past four games, Milan have had the most corners. Odds of -120 look value when it comes to Milan having the most corners.

League Games

League Games

Last 10 Total For Against

Last 10 at Home Total For Against

Last 10 Away Total For Against

Milan

Total

9.50 5.00 4.50

Home

11.10 5.80 5.30

Away

9.70 5.60 4.10

Napoli

Total

8.80 5.40 3.40

Home

10.00 6.50 3.50

Away

8.60 3.90 4.70

Latest Corner Odds

Total Corners

Over 9.5

-110

Under 9.5

-130

Milan Corners

Over 4.5

-141

Under 4.5

-102

Napoli Corners

Over 4.5

+102

Under 4.5

-147

Most Corners

1

-118

X

+600

2

+133

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AC Milan vs Napoli Odds

The odds are updated on a frequent basis. You might therefore find that they are different to the ones listed for the above betting predictions.

Betting Sites Predicting a Close Encounter

For this Serie A encounter, the bookmakers have AC Milan as the +114 favourites to win. This therefore implies that they have a 47% chance of triumphing. The market suggests that Napoli are least likely to win at +245.

If you think Milan can overcome Napoli, then there’s an Asian Handicap option where the former are -118 with a -0.25 deficit. There’s half your money back in the event of a draw.

For those anticipating a low-scoring contest, Under 2.5 is the market leader for the Total Goals market. Both Teams to Score is a two-way market and, when it comes to latest odds, there’s not much to separate Yes and No.

The leading football betting sites provide hundreds of markets for the latest Serie A games. Be sure to peruse all of the available options before going ahead with your preferred wager.

Full-Time Result

1

+114

X

+225

2

+245

Half-Time Result

1

+180

X

+110

2

+295

Double Chance

1X

-333

12

-313

X2

-149

Draw No Bet

1

-189

2

+138

Asian Handicap

1 Hcp -0.25

-118

2 Hcp +0.25

-104

Total Goals

Under 2.5

-149

Over 2.5

+115

Both Teams to Score

Yes

-111

No

-119

Santiago Giménez Top of First Goalscorer List

Favourite Santiago Giménez is priced at +410 to be the first player to find the net. There’s also the opportunity to back him to score any time at odds of +195.

Santiago Giménez (Milan)

First

+195

Anytime

+410

Christian Pulisic (Milan)

First

+235

Anytime

+500

Lorenzo Lucca (Napoli)

First

+260

Anytime

+550

Rafael Leão (Milan)

First

+310

Anytime

+650

Scott McTominay (Napoli)

First

+370

Anytime

+800

Rasmus Højlund (Napoli)

First

+430

Anytime

+900

Kevin De Bruyne (Napoli)

First

+430

Anytime

+900

Adrien Rabiot (Milan)

First

+475

Anytime

+1100

Alexis Saelemaekers (Milan)

First

+480

Anytime

+1050

Noa Lang (Napoli)

First

+480

Anytime

+1050

Ruben Loftus-Cheek (Milan)

First

+500

Anytime

+1100

Eljif Elmas (Napoli)

First

+525

Anytime

+1150

Luka Modric (Milan)

First

+550

Anytime

+1200

Matteo Politano (Napoli)

First

+650

Anytime

+1400

Miguel Gutiérrez (Napoli)

First

+750

Anytime

+1700

Pervis Estupiñán (Milan)

First

+800

Anytime

+1700

Davide Bartesaghi (Milan)

First

+800

Anytime

+1900

Youssouf Fofana (Milan)

First

+900

Anytime

+1900

Frank Anguissa (Napoli)

First

+1000

Anytime

+2000

Santiago Giménez (Milan)

Over 0.5

-263

Under 0.5

+160

Christian Pulisic (Milan)

Over 0.5

-204

Under 0.5

+130

Lorenzo Lucca (Napoli)

Over 0.5

-147

Under 0.5

-105

Rafael Leão (Milan)

Over 0.5

-132

Under 0.5

-119

Scott McTominay (Napoli)

Over 0.5

-105

Under 0.5

-147

Kevin De Bruyne (Napoli)

Over 0.5

+102

Under 0.5

-159

Rasmus Højlund (Napoli)

Over 0.5

+130

Under 0.5

-213

Alexis Saelemaekers (Milan)

Over 0.5

+138

Under 0.5

-217

Ruben Loftus-Cheek (Milan)

Over 0.5

+140

Under 0.5

-227

Adrien Rabiot (Milan)

Over 0.5

+140

Under 0.5

-233

Noa Lang (Napoli)

Over 0.5

+148

Under 0.5

-238

Eljif Elmas (Napoli)

Over 0.5

+165

Under 0.5

-278

Luka Modric (Milan)

Over 0.5

+165

Under 0.5

-278

Matteo Politano (Napoli)

Over 0.5

+205

Under 0.5

-357

Miguel Gutiérrez (Napoli)

Over 0.5

+235

Under 0.5

-417

Youssouf Fofana (Milan)

Over 0.5

+255

Under 0.5

-500

Pervis Estupiñán (Milan)

Over 0.5

+270

Under 0.5

-526

Davide Bartesaghi (Milan)

Over 0.5

+275

Under 0.5

-833

Santiago Giménez (Milan)

Over 3.5

+135

Under 3.5

-

Christian Pulisic (Milan)

Over 2.5

-111

Under 2.5

-

Lorenzo Lucca (Napoli)

Over 2.5

-102

Under 2.5

-

Rafael Leão (Milan)

Over 2.5

+140

Under 2.5

-

Scott McTominay (Napoli)

Over 1.5

-167

Under 1.5

-

Rasmus Højlund (Napoli)

Over 1.5

-100

Under 1.5

-

Kevin De Bruyne (Napoli)

Over 1.5

-149

Under 1.5

-

Adrien Rabiot (Milan)

Over 1.5

+143

Under 1.5

-

Alexis Saelemaekers (Milan)

Over 1.5

+108

Under 1.5

-

Noa Lang (Napoli)

Over 1.5

+112

Under 1.5

-

Ruben Loftus-Cheek (Milan)

Over 1.5

+117

Under 1.5

-

Eljif Elmas (Napoli)

Over 1.5

+130

Under 1.5

-

Matteo Politano (Napoli)

Over 1.5

+140

Under 1.5

-

Youssouf Fofana (Milan)

Over 1.5

+128

Under 1.5

-

Luka Modric (Milan)

Over 0.5

-238

Under 0.5

-

Davide Bartesaghi (Milan)

Over 0.5

-127

Under 0.5

-

Five Wins for Milan in Previous Ten Home Games

Milan have secured five victories, three defeats and two draws in the previous 10 home games, netting an average of 1.40 goals per match and conceding 1.00.

Napoli have swerved defeat on their travels in the previous seven matches. Antonio Conte's team have managed five draws, four victories and one loss in the last 10 away matches, recording an average of 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.70.

In the last meeting at San Siro, Napoli defeated Milan by a 2-0 scoreline. The past 8 H2H meetings at San Siro have included four Napoli victories, two draws and two Milan wins.

Last 10 League Games		W-D-L	G	GF	GA	O2.5	U2.5	B-Y	B-No
AC Milan Home Stats		5-2-3	2.40	1.40	1.00	5	5	6	4
Napoli Away Stats		4-5-1	1.90	1.20	0.70	3	7	5	5

• W-D-L = Wins-Draws-Losses
• G = Avg. Goals
• GF = Avg. Goals For
• GA = Avg. Goals Against
• O2.5 = Matches Over 2.5 Goals
• U2.5 = Matches Under 2.5 Goals
• B-Y = Matches BTTS Yes
• B-No = Matches BTTS No

AC Milan vs Napoli Lineups & Team News

Always review the Milan vs Napoli team news before locking in your bets. Get the predicted and confirmed Serie A lineups plus the latest injury updates from us.

AC Milan Team Page Napoli Team Page