Atlético Madrid vs Real Madrid Prediction, Betting Tips, Lineups & Odds | 27 Sep 2025

La Liga Betting Preview: Atlético Madrid vs Real Madrid

Fierce capital rivals Atlético Madrid and Real Madrid meet in the El Derbi Madrileño at Riyadh Air Metropolitano, with kick-off set for 10:15 on Saturday 27 September. Our Spanish La Liga betting preview features expert predictions, betting tips, the latest odds, H2H stats, team news and both predicted and confirmed lineups.

Over 2.5 Goals Looks the Value Bet

Atléti and Real could hit the net a few times in this derby clash and we’re happy to take the -147 when it comes to Over 2.5. This can be backed with confidence on the Total Goals market and we’re hopeful of a return.

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Penalty Shoot-out Joy for Real in Previous H2H

Atlético Madrid won their last league encounter 3-2, making it back-to-back La Liga home victories. This was recorded at Riyadh Air Metropolitano against Rayo Vallecano. Los Colchoneros had most of the ball recording 61% possession and eight shots on target, while Julian Alvarez was on fire with a hat-trick.

Real Madrid have triumphed in their previous six games. The latest was on their travels where Levante were beaten 4-1 at Estadi Ciutat de València. Xabi Alonso's side had the lion’s share of the ball enjoying 62% possession and ten shots on goal, with Kylian Mbappe on the scoresheet twice, while Vinicius Junior and Franco Mastantuono were both able to net.

Head-to-Head Statistics

Real have landed victories in their last two encounters against Atléti. A 4-3 after penalties win on their travels at Riyadh Air Metropolitano came after a 2-1 home success at Santiago Bernabéu. The previous 10 H2H games have ended in four Real victories, four draws and two Atléti wins.

La Liga		G	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	GD	P
1	Real Madrid	6	6	0	0	14	3	11	14:3	18
8	Atlético Madrid	6	2	3	1	9	7	2	9:7	9

View Full Table

Atléti have 5 wins, 2 losses and 3 draws, averaging 2.1 goals from 6.8 shots on goal and 14.0 attempts. Los Colchoneros have averaged 58.7% possession, 569.1 passes and 6.4 corners per match, with the opposition scoring 1.0 goals from 2.9 shots on goal, 7.4 attempts and 2.7 corners.

Top goalscorer Alexander Soerloth has found the net 8 times, Julian Alvarez 6, with Conor Gallagher and two other players on 1. Leading assistor is Julian Alvarez with 3, while goalies Jan Oblak and Juan Musso have 3 clean sheets between them.

Real have won 9 and lost 1, averaging 19.6 attempts, 7.6 shots on goal and 2.3 goals. Xabi Alonso's men average 59.6% possession, 559.4 passes, 8.2 corners in their favour and 3.7 corners against, while 0.8 goals have been conceded from 2.9 shots on goal and 9.3 attempts.

Kylian Mbappe has scored 14, followed by Vinicius Junior on 3 and Arda Guler with 2. Vinicius Junior has clocked up 6 assists, with Thibaut Courtois and Andriy Lunin collectively keeping 3 clean sheets in the previous 10 games.

Predicted & Confirmed Lineups

Atlético Madrid predicted lineup (4-4-2): Jan Oblak (GK), Marcos Llorente, Robin Le Normand, Clement Lenglet, David Hancko, Giuliano Simeone, Koke, Pablo Barrios, Nicolas Gonzalez, Antoine Griezmann, Julián Álvarez.

Real Madrid predicted lineup (4-2-3-1): Thibaut Courtois (GK), Daniel Carvajal, Éder Militão, Dean Donny Huijsen, Álvaro Fernández Carreras, Federico Valverde, Aurelien Tchouameni, Franco Mastantuono, Arda Güler, Vinícius Júnior, Kylian Mbappe.

Atlético Madrid vs Real Madrid Prediction & Betting Tips

Our Atlético Madrid vs Real Madrid betting guide delivers expert insight, including a main match pick, our corners angle, scoreline advice, standout player props and bet builder recommendations. Dive into each section below for more.

Match Prediction

A generous price of -147 is on offer when it comes to Over 2.5 Goals to be notched and that looks like a great betting opportunity. Back at least three goals to be scored when it comes to this La Liga encounter.

The latest La Liga team news and current form are always useful information when it comes to providing football betting tips. It’s also important to pay attention to the available stats so that we make the best picks.

Key Atlético Madrid vs Real Madrid league stats:

• The 2.5 line has been covered in 6 of the last 10 Atléti games at home.
• The 2.5 line has been covered in 3 of the last 5 Atléti games at home.
• The 2.5 line has been covered in 4 of the last 5 Real games on the road.
• The 2.5 line has been covered in 13 of the last 20 Real games on the road.
• The 2.5 line has been covered in the last 3 Real games on the road.

Over 2.5 Probability

Based on the latest odds from the top bookmakers, our pick carries a 59.5% chance of winning. However, our experts think that the probability sits between 65-70% taking all factors into consideration. It is therefore regarded as a value wager.

There are some bigger-priced options for Over 2.5 Goals backers and that includes heading to the Result & Total Goals market. It’s particularly good if you fancy a team to land victory.

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Our Match Prediction

Over 2.5 Goals @ -147 Watch Live Bet Now

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Correct Score Prediction

Atléti 1 - 2 Real

A 2-1 win in favor of Real is available at odds of +750. Take a chance on the correct score and get rewarded for predicting the right scoreline.

Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: Antoine Griezmann Over 0.5 Shots On Target -105

Antoine Griezmann (Atléti) has racked up at least one shot on goal in back-to-back La Liga games. He should be capable of covering the line when it comes to this player prop and odds of -105 are now available.

Latest Antoine Griezmann Player Prop Odds

Goalscorer

Anytime

+330

First

+850

Shots On Target

Over 0.5

-105

Under 0.5

-152

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Kylian Mbappé To Score +108

Kylian Mbappé (Real) can be backed to be among the goals at +108. We think there’s value in backing him for an Anytime Goalscorer prop bet which will hopefully see him find the net.

Latest Kylian Mbappé Player Prop Odds

Goalscorer

Anytime

+104

First

+280

Shots On Target

Over 1.5

-127

Under 1.5

-123

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Corners Prediction

Atléti Over 4.5 Corners -138

The 4.5 corners line has been covered by Atléti in their past five games, while Real have conceded 5.90 corners on average in their last 10 away matches. We’re expecting plenty of Atléti corners and that the Team Corners line is going to be covered, with odds of -138 available.

League Games

League Games

Last 10 Total For Against

Last 10 at Home Total For Against

Last 10 Away Total For Against

Atléti

Total

9.10 6.40 2.70

Home

9.80 6.10 3.70

Away

8.20 5.10 3.10

Real

Total

11.90 8.20 3.70

Home

12.40 9.20 3.20

Away

10.40 4.50 5.90

Latest Corner Odds

Total Corners

Over 9.5

-123

Under 9.5

-115

Atléti Corners

Over 4.5

-138

Under 4.5

-100

Real Corners

Over 4.5

-125

Under 4.5

-110

Most Corners

1

+104

X

+600

2

+110

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Atlético Madrid vs Real Madrid Odds

The odds are updated on a frequent basis. You might therefore find that they are different to the ones listed for the above betting predictions.

Real Full-Time Odds Suggest Victory

Some will want to go ahead and back Real Madrid at +125 to win this La Liga encounter. After all, this betting price suggests a 44% chance that the favourites end up succeeding. For those wanting to back Atlético Madrid, you will find +200 about this outsider.

There are different betting angles when backing Real including the Asian Handicap -0.25 wager. This is available at -104 and there’s a half stake return if they only draw with Atléti.

For those expecting a high-scoring contest, Over 2.5 Goals is the shortest price. Should you expect both teams score, then the BTTS Yes option is available at -175.

No matter what La Liga game is taking place, you will find hundreds of markets being offered. Peruse the various choices that are presented at the best football betting sites.

Full-Time Result

1

+200

X

+255

2

+125

Half-Time Result

1

+245

X

+135

2

+170

Double Chance

1X

-164

12

-345

X2

-270

Draw No Bet

1

+115

2

-156

Asian Handicap

1 Hcp +0.25

-118

2 Hcp -0.25

-104

Total Goals

Under 2.5

+114

Over 2.5

-147

Both Teams to Score

Yes

-175

No

+132

Kylian Mbappé Favourite to Find the Net First

Kylian Mbappé is favourite to be First Goalscorer at +280, while you can get similar odds if you want him to score the last goal.

Kylian Mbappé (Real)

First

+104

Anytime

+280

Julián Álvarez (Atléti)

First

+155

Anytime

+400

Alexander Sørloth (Atléti)

First

+195

Anytime

+500

Vinicius Junior (Real)

First

+265

Anytime

+650

Gonzalo García (Real)

First

+310

Anytime

+700

Endrick Moreira de Sousa (Real)

First

+330

Anytime

+750

Antoine Griezmann (Atléti)

First

+330

Anytime

+850

Franco Mastantuono (Real)

First

+400

Anytime

+1000

Rodrygo (Real)

First

+420

Anytime

+1000

Álex Baena (Atléti)

First

+440

Anytime

+1100

Giacomo Raspadori (Atléti)

First

+440

Anytime

+1100

Nicolás González (Atléti)

First

+450

Anytime

+1150

Thiago Almada (Atléti)

First

+475

Anytime

+1150

Arda Guler (Real)

First

+480

Anytime

+1200

Carlos Martín (Atléti)

First

+550

Anytime

+1500

Federico Valverde (Real)

First

+650

Anytime

+1600

Brahim Díaz (Real)

First

+700

Anytime

+1400

Giuliano Simeone (Atléti)

First

+700

Anytime

+1700

David Hancko (Atléti)

First

+900

Anytime

+2200

Alexander Sørloth (Atléti)

Over 0.5

-227

Under 0.5

+138

Vinicius Junior (Real)

Over 0.5

-137

Under 0.5

-111

Kylian Mbappé (Real)

Over 1.5

-127

Under 1.5

-123

Gonzalo García (Real)

Over 0.5

-114

Under 0.5

-135

Antoine Griezmann (Atléti)

Over 0.5

-105

Under 0.5

-152

Endrick Moreira de Sousa (Real)

Over 0.5

-104

Under 0.5

-159

Franco Mastantuono (Real)

Over 0.5

+120

Under 0.5

-200

Giacomo Raspadori (Atléti)

Over 0.5

+130

Under 0.5

-204

Rodrygo (Real)

Over 0.5

+138

Under 0.5

-222

Nicolás González (Atléti)

Over 0.5

+140

Under 0.5

-227

Álex Baena (Atléti)

Over 0.5

+143

Under 0.5

-233

Arda Guler (Real)

Over 0.5

+148

Under 0.5

-233

Julián Álvarez (Atléti)

Over 1.5

+150

Under 1.5

-244

Thiago Almada (Atléti)

Over 0.5

+150

Under 0.5

-233

Carlos Martín (Atléti)

Over 0.5

+180

Under 0.5

-313

Federico Valverde (Real)

Over 0.5

+205

Under 0.5

-333

Giuliano Simeone (Atléti)

Over 0.5

+225

Under 0.5

-385

Brahim Díaz (Real)

Over 0.5

+235

Under 0.5

-417

Atléti Bidding to Continue Unbeaten Home Run

Atléti have gone unbeaten at Riyadh Air Metropolitano in the last seven games. Diego Simeone's team have clocked up six wins, three defeats and one draw in the past 10 home games, recording an average of 2.40 goals per match and conceding 1.10.

Real are four wins from four on their travels. Los Merengues have collected seven victories, two losses and one draw in the last 10 away games, recording an average of 2.00 goals per match and conceding 1.00.

When the sides last met at Riyadh Air Metropolitano, Real beat Atléti on penalties (0-1 AET). It’s been three Real wins, three draws and two Atléti victories in the past 8 H2H meetings at Riyadh Air Metropolitano.

Last 10 League Games		W-D-L	G	GF	GA	O2.5	U2.5	B-Y	B-No
Atlético Madrid Home Stats		6-1-3	3.50	2.40	1.10	6	4	5	5
Real Madrid Away Stats		7-1-2	3.00	2.00	1.00	6	4	6	4

• W-D-L = Wins-Draws-Losses
• G = Avg. Goals
• GF = Avg. Goals For
• GA = Avg. Goals Against
• O2.5 = Matches Over 2.5 Goals
• U2.5 = Matches Under 2.5 Goals
• B-Y = Matches BTTS Yes
• B-No = Matches BTTS No

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Atlético Madrid vs Real Madrid Lineups & Team News

The Atléti vs Real team news could change everything — review it before betting. We’ll provide full coverage of predicted and confirmed La Liga lineups alongside the newest injury information.

Atlético Madrid Team Page Real Madrid Team Page