Benfica vs Real Madrid Prediction, Betting Tips, Lineups & Odds | 28 Jan 2026

Champions League Betting Preview: Benfica vs Real Madrid

Portuguese Primeira Liga outfit Benfica host Spanish La Liga giants Real Madrid at Estadio da Luz in the final round of the UCL league phase, with kick-off set for 16:00 on Wednesday 28 January.

Real Madrid can’t be passed up when they clash with Jose Mourinho's Benfica, especially as a price of -149 is available for Los Merengues. Head to the 1x2 market to back this prediction which looks value.

Benfica sit 29th in the Champions League table and are two points off the final qualification spot, knowing victory is essential to keep their knockout hopes alive, while Real Madrid, currently third, are not yet assured of a top-eight finish with just two points separating them from the chasing pack.

Benfica were winners in their last game, claiming a 4–0 Primeira Liga home victory over Estrela Amadora at the Estádio da Luz. The Eagles boasted 66% possession and had eight shots on target, while Vangelis Pavlidis scored two, with Sidny Lopes Cabral and Anisio Cabral also getting a goal.

Real triumphed in their previous game. It was away from home in La Liga where Villarreal were beaten 2-0 at Estadio de la Ceramica. Alvaro Arbeloa's siderecorded 58% possession and had four shots on goal, with Kylian Mbappe netting twice.

In the last round of the Champions League, Benfica were away to Juventus and lost 2-0, while Real triumphed 6-1 at home to Monaco.

Champions League		G	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	GD	P
9	Real Madrid	8	5	0	3	21	12	9	21:12	15
24	Benfica	8	3	0	5	10	12	-2	10:12	9

View Full Table

7 wins, 1 loss and 2 draws, averaging 2.1 goals from 5.6 shots on goal and 15.8 attempts. Benfica have had 54.0% possession, 478.8 passes and 6.1 corners per game. On average, their opponents have scored 0.7 goals from 2.3 shots on goal and 7.2 attempts, while being awarded 2.8 corners.

Vangelis Pavlidis leads the way with 10 goals, with Leandro Barreiro and Fredrik Aursnes scoring 2 each. Georgiy Sudakov, Fredrik Aursnes and Amar Dedic have recorded the most assists with 2 apiece. Meanwhile, goalkeeper Anatoliy Trubin has kept 5 clean sheets.

Real have won 7, lost 2 and drawn 1, averaging 19.0 attempts, 6.3 shots on goal and 2.4 goals. Los Merengues average 57.3% possession, 497.1 passes, 6.5 corners awarded and 4.1 corners against them, while 0.8 goals have been conceded from 3.9 shots on goal and 10.8 attempts.

Kylian Mbappe has landed 10 goals, Gonzalo Garcia 3, with Jude Bellingham and two others scoring 2. Federico Valverde has had 4 assists, with Thibaut Courtois notching 4 clean sheets in the previous 10 games.

Confirmed Lineups

Benfica confirmed lineup (4-2-3-1): Anatoliy Trubin (GK), Amar Dedic, Tomas Araujo, Nicolas Otamendi, Samuel Dahl, Leandro Barreiro, Fredrik Aursnes, Gianluca Prestianni, Georgiy Sudakov, Andreas Schjelderup, Vangelis Pavlidis.

Real Madrid confirmed lineup (4-1-2-3): Thibaut Courtois (GK), Federico Valverde, Raul Asencio, Dean Huijsen, Alvaro Carreras, Aurelien Tchouameni, Arda Guler, Jude Bellingham, Franco Mastantuono, Kylian Mbappe, Vinicius Junior.

Benfica vs Real Madrid Prediction & Betting Tips

We’ve got your Benfica vs Real Madrid bets covered, including our expert match prediction, correct score tip, corners outlook, must-see player props and a tailored bet builder built for value.

Match Prediction

We think Real Madrid stand a strong chance of victory when they compete in this Champions League game, with our pick providing lots of value. Secure the odds of -149 that the visitors are able to get the job done.

Our panel of football writers survey the latest injuries and suspensions. When combined with the form guide, this helps us secure the best odds. Our stats-led approach backed up by key Champions League data is helpful.

Key Benfica vs Real Madrid Champions League & league stats:

• Real have won 6 consecutive games.
• Real have won 7 of their last 10 games.
• Real have won 14 of their last 20 games.

According to the best betting sites, our pick has a 59.9% chance of landing a return. Taking all factors into consideration, our tipsters think there’s a stronger chance of success and have a probability interval between 65-70%. It is therefore regarded as a value wager.

There’s the opportunity to bank a larger price by pairing Madrid to triumph along with BTTS No if you anticipate that they’ll come through with a win and also achieve a shut-out.

Find top value before betting. Our guide includes the latest free bets and sign-up bonuses from trusted sites.

Our Match Prediction

Real To Win @ -149 Bet Now

BetMGM Promo Up To $1500 in Bonus Bets Get Bonus T&C apply. Gamble responsibly 18+

Disclosure: This preview contains affiliate links; we may earn a commission at no extra cost to you. T&Cs apply. We only recommend licensed and regulated operators. See our Editorial Policy. Pick odds and lines reflect the price available at the time of publication (Jan 26, 22:08). Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Correct Score Prediction

Benfica 1 - 3 Real Madrid

You can secure odds of +900 that Real Madrid are able to land a 3-1 victory. Correct score betting can provide plenty of fun and it’s a way of landing bigger odds.

Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: Vangelis Pavlidis Over 2.5 Shots -133

Vangelis Pavlidis (Benfica) has recorded over 2.5 shots in four consecutive games. We’ve decided to back him on the Overs for Player Shots, with this line looking attractive at odds of -133.

Latest Vangelis Pavlidis Player Prop Odds

Goalscorer

Anytime

+145

First

+450

Shots On Target

Over 1.5

+150

Under 1.5

-278

Shots

Over 3.5

+125

Under 3.5

-

---

Jude Bellingham to Score +290

Jude Bellingham (Real Madrid) has netted two goals in his past five games. He looks like an attractive wager to be on the scoresheet and you’re able to back this Anytime Goalscorer selection at odds of +290.

Latest Jude Bellingham Player Prop Odds

Goalscorer

Anytime

+280

First

+900

Shots On Target

Over 0.5

-147

Under 0.5

-120

Shots

Over 1.5

-132

Under 1.5

-

Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Corners Prediction

Benfica Over 4.5 Corners -105

The 4.5 corners line has been covered by Benfica in their past six games, with the corner count against Real Madrid going over 4.5 in their last three away matches. If you agree with our verdict that the Benfica Team Corners line can be covered, then you can secure odds of -105 that this happens.

Champions League & League Games

League Games

Last 10 Total For Against

Last 10 at Home Total For Against

Last 10 Away Total For Against

Benfica

Total

9.80 7.60 2.20

Home

8.20 5.90 2.30

Away

11.70 7.60 4.10

Real Madrid

Total

11.90 6.80 5.10

Home

11.00 7.20 3.80

Away

10.40 6.10 4.30

Latest Corner Odds

Total Corners

Over 10.5

-103

Under 10.5

-139

Benfica Corners

Over 4.5

-120

Under 4.5

-118

Real Madrid Corners

Over 5.5

-102

Under 5.5

-139

Most Corners

1

+130

X

+700

2

-132

Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Benfica vs Real Madrid Odds

The odds and lines below are updated regularly and may differ from the prices shown in our picks, which are captured at the time of publication.

Some will want to go ahead and back Real Madrid at -139 to win this Champions League encounter. After all, this betting price suggests a 58% chance that the favourites end up succeeding. The market suggests that Benfica are least likely to win at +330.

If you think Real can win by two or more goals against Benfica, consider them at -0.75 on the Asian Handicap at -112. You’ll even win with half your stake if they win by one goal, with the other half refunded.

The expectation is that Over 2.5 Goals will be scored according to the latest odds. A different approach is a Both Teams to Score bet and Yes has been priced at -233.

Hundreds of markets are now a guarantee for each of the Champions League games, with the best football betting sites making sure that customers have quality options.

Full-Time Result

1

+330

X

+320

2

-139

Half-Time Result

1

+310

X

+163

2

+116

Double Chance

1X

+106

12

-455

X2

-476

Draw No Bet

1

+205

2

-313

Asian Handicap

1 Hcp +0.75

-110

2 Hcp -0.75

-112

Total Goals

Under 2.5

+185

Over 2.5

-238

Both Teams to Score

Yes

-233

No

+175

Favourite Kylian Mbappé is available at +250 to be the First Goalscorer. Similar odds apply if you’re interested in him to score the last goal.

Kylian Mbappé (Real Madrid)

First

-154

Anytime

+250

Vangelis Pavlidis (Benfica)

First

+145

Anytime

+450

Vinicius Junior (Real Madrid)

First

+190

Anytime

+600

Rodrygo (Real Madrid)

First

+230

Anytime

+650

Gonzalo García (Real Madrid)

First

+250

Anytime

+650

Jude Bellingham (Real Madrid)

First

+280

Anytime

+900

Franjo Ivanovic (Benfica)

First

+290

Anytime

+800

Federico Valverde (Real Madrid)

First

+330

Anytime

+1000

Arda Guler (Real Madrid)

First

+350

Anytime

+1000

Franco Mastantuono (Real Madrid)

First

+380

Anytime

+1100

Henrique Araújo (Benfica)

First

+400

Anytime

+1100

Armindo ''Bruma'' Bangna (Benfica)

First

+430

Anytime

+1200

Georgiy Sudakov (Benfica)

First

+450

Anytime

+1400

Gianluca Prestianni (Benfica)

First

+475

Anytime

+1400

Brahim Díaz (Real Madrid)

First

+500

Anytime

+1300

Andreas Schjelderup (Benfica)

First

+525

Anytime

+1400

Leandro Barreiro (Benfica)

First

+600

Anytime

+1900

Richard Ríos (Benfica)

First

+650

Anytime

+2000

David Jiménez (Real Madrid)

First

+700

Anytime

+2000

Eduardo Camavinga (Real Madrid)

First

+700

Anytime

+2000

Diogo Ferreira Prioste (Benfica)

First

+750

Anytime

+2200

Raúl Asencio del Rosario (Real Madrid)

First

+750

Anytime

+2200

David Alaba (Real Madrid)

First

+800

Anytime

+2200

Dean Huijsen (Real Madrid)

First

+800

Anytime

+2200

Trent Alexander-Arnold (Real Madrid)

First

+800

Anytime

+2200

Álvaro Fernández Carreras (Real Madrid)

First

+800

Anytime

+2200

Antonio Rüdiger (Real Madrid)

First

+800

Anytime

+2200

Ferland Mendy (Real Madrid)

First

+850

Anytime

+2200

Fran García (Real Madrid)

First

+900

Anytime

+2200

Vinicius Junior (Real Madrid)

Over 0.5

-233

Under 0.5

+130

Rodrygo (Real Madrid)

Over 0.5

-217

Under 0.5

+123

Kylian Mbappé (Real Madrid)

Over 1.5

-204

Under 1.5

+115

Gonzalo García (Real Madrid)

Over 0.5

-189

Under 0.5

+108

Federico Valverde (Real Madrid)

Over 0.5

-161

Under 0.5

-109

Jude Bellingham (Real Madrid)

Over 0.5

-147

Under 0.5

-120

Franjo Ivanovic (Benfica)

Over 0.5

-109

Under 0.5

-159

Franco Mastantuono (Real Madrid)

Over 0.5

-100

Under 0.5

-172

Arda Guler (Real Madrid)

Over 0.5

+107

Under 0.5

-192

Henrique Araújo (Benfica)

Over 0.5

+118

Under 0.5

-213

Georgiy Sudakov (Benfica)

Over 0.5

+130

Under 0.5

-244

Armindo ''Bruma'' Bangna (Benfica)

Over 0.5

+130

Under 0.5

-244

Brahim Díaz (Real Madrid)

Over 0.5

+135

Under 0.5

-244

Vangelis Pavlidis (Benfica)

Over 1.5

+150

Under 1.5

-278

Gianluca Prestianni (Benfica)

Over 0.5

+165

Under 0.5

-333

Andreas Schjelderup (Benfica)

Over 0.5

+180

Under 0.5

-345

Richard Ríos (Benfica)

Over 0.5

+185

Under 0.5

-357

Eduardo Camavinga (Real Madrid)

Over 0.5

+205

Under 0.5

-417

David Jiménez (Real Madrid)

Over 0.5

+225

Under 0.5

-476

Leandro Barreiro (Benfica)

Over 0.5

+230

Under 0.5

-500

Diogo Ferreira Prioste (Benfica)

Over 0.5

+260

Under 0.5

-625

Antonio Rüdiger (Real Madrid)

Over 0.5

+260

Under 0.5

-625

Dean Huijsen (Real Madrid)

Over 0.5

+270

Under 0.5

-625

Trent Alexander-Arnold (Real Madrid)

Over 0.5

+270

Under 0.5

-625

Raúl Asencio del Rosario (Real Madrid)

Over 0.5

+280

Under 0.5

-667

David Alaba (Real Madrid)

Over 0.5

+280

Under 0.5

-667

Álvaro Fernández Carreras (Real Madrid)

Over 0.5

+280

Under 0.5

-714

Ferland Mendy (Real Madrid)

Over 0.5

+280

Under 0.5

-667

Fran García (Real Madrid)

Over 0.5

+290

Under 0.5

-714

Kylian Mbappé (Real Madrid)

Over 4.5

+130

Under 4.5

-

Vangelis Pavlidis (Benfica)

Over 3.5

+125

Under 3.5

-

Vinicius Junior (Real Madrid)

Over 2.5

-112

Under 2.5

-

Franco Mastantuono (Real Madrid)

Over 1.5

-161

Under 1.5

-

Richard Ríos (Benfica)

Over 1.5

+145

Under 1.5

-

Gianluca Prestianni (Benfica)

Over 1.5

-167

Under 1.5

-

Georgiy Sudakov (Benfica)

Over 1.5

+118

Under 1.5

-

Armindo ''Bruma'' Bangna (Benfica)

Over 1.5

+138

Under 1.5

-

Henrique Araújo (Benfica)

Over 1.5

+105

Under 1.5

-

Arda Guler (Real Madrid)

Over 1.5

+102

Under 1.5

-

Federico Valverde (Real Madrid)

Over 1.5

-116

Under 1.5

-

Franjo Ivanovic (Benfica)

Over 1.5

-143

Under 1.5

-

Jude Bellingham (Real Madrid)

Over 1.5

-132

Under 1.5

-

Gonzalo García (Real Madrid)

Over 1.5

-132

Under 1.5

-

Rodrygo (Real Madrid)

Over 1.5

-175

Under 1.5

-

Brahim Díaz (Real Madrid)

Over 0.5

-217

Under 0.5

-

Andreas Schjelderup (Benfica)

Over 0.5

-233

Under 0.5

-

Leandro Barreiro (Benfica)

Over 0.5

-143

Under 0.5

-

David Jiménez (Real Madrid)

Over 0.5

-100

Under 0.5

-

Eduardo Camavinga (Real Madrid)

Over 0.5

-100

Under 0.5

-

Diogo Ferreira Prioste (Benfica)

Over 0.5

-119

Under 0.5

-

Latest Champions League and domestic league stats. Full Time Result, Goals, Corners and Possession.

Benfica Stats

Real Madrid Stats

Full-Time Result

• 7 wins, 1 defeat and 2 draws in the previous 10 matches
• 7 wins, 1 defeat and 2 draws in the previous 10 home matches

Full-Time Result

• 9 wins and 1 defeat in the previous 10 matches
• 5 wins, 2 defeats and 3 draws in the previous 10 away matches

Goals

• An average of 2.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded in the previous 10 matches
• An average of 2.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded in the previous 10 home matches
• An average of 2.90 goals per game in the previous 10 matches
• An average of 3.20 goals per game in the previous 10 home matches
• BTTS Yes in 5 of the previous 10 matches
• BTTS Yes in 5 of the previous 10 home matches
• Over 2.5 Goals in 6 of the previous 10 matches
• Over 2.5 Goals in 6 of the previous 10 home matches

Goals

• An average of 2.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded in the previous 10 matches
• An average of 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded in the previous 10 away matches
• An average of 3.80 goals per game in the previous 10 matches
• An average of 3.00 goals per game in the previous 10 away matches
• BTTS Yes in 6 of the previous 10 matches
• BTTS Yes in 5 of the previous 10 away matches
• Over 2.5 Goals in 6 of the previous 10 matches
• Over 2.5 Goals in 5 of the previous 10 away matches

Corners

• An average of 7.60 corners awarded and 2.20 corners conceded in the last 10 matches
• An average of 5.90 corners awarded and 2.30 corners against in the last 10 home matches
• An average of 9.80 corners awarded in the last 10 matches
• An average of 8.20 corners awarded in the last 10 home matches
• Had the most corners in 10 and least corners in 0 of the last 10 matches
• Had the most corners in 9 and least corners in 1 of the last 10 home matches

Corners

• An average of 6.80 corners awarded and 5.10 corners conceded in the last 10 matches
• An average of 6.10 corners awarded and 4.30 corners against in the last 10 away matches
• An average of 11.90 corners awarded in the last 10 matches
• An average of 10.40 corners awarded in the last 10 away matches
• Had the most corners in 6 and least corners in 3 of the last 10 matches
• Had the most corners in 7 and least corners in 2 of the last 10 away matches

Possession

• An average of 56.00% possession in the last 10 matches
• An average of 52.80% possession in the last 10 home matches
• Most possession in 8 of the last 10 matches
• Most possession in 7 of the last 10 home matches

Possession

• An average of 57.80% possession in the last 10 matches
• An average of 57.40% possession in the last 10 away matches
• Most possession in 9 of the last 10 matches
• Most possession in 9 of the last 10 away matches

Benfica vs Real Madrid Lineups & Team News

Double-check the Benfica vs Real team news before placing your bets. Stay in the know with our predicted and confirmed Champions League lineups and the latest on injuries.

Top Football Pages