Benfica vs Real Madrid Prediction, Betting Tips, Lineups & Odds | 17 Feb 2026

Champions League Betting Preview: Benfica vs Real Madrid

José Mourinho Benfica host Spanish La Liga leaders Real Madrid at Estádio da Luz in the first leg of this Champions League play-off tie, with kick-off set for 15:00 on Tuesday 17 February. The sides faced each other three weeks ago, with Benfica recording a 4–2 win over Real, a result that pushed the Spanish side out of the top eight while securing Benfica’s play-off qualification.

Real Madrid look like excellent value at -108 for bettors who are wagering on the Full-Time Result market. Los Merengues are capable of securing a win against Benfica based on the numbers at our disposal.

Benfica come into this match off the back of a 2–1 Primeira Liga away victory against Santa Clara at Estádio de São Miguel. The Lisbon side recorded three shots on target and had 47% possession, with Vangelis Pavlidis and Paulo Victor (own goal) scoring one goal apiece.

Real Madrid’s previous game was a home fixture, where they secured a 4–1 La Liga win against Real Sociedad at the Santiago Bernabéu. Alvaro Arbeloa's team had 52% possession and managed five shots on goal, while Vinicius Junior was on the scoresheet twice, with Gonzalo Garcia and Federico Valverde both able to net.

Head-to-Head Statistics

Benfica and Real Madrid met at Estádio da Luz in the UCL league phase three weeks ago, with Benfica claiming a dramatic 4–2 victory. The win secured Benfica’s progression to the play-offs, capped by a remarkable injury-time goal from goalkeeper Anatoliy Trubin.

Benfica won the shots on goal 12–6, while Real dominated possession with 67%. Andreas Schjelderup scored twice, with Vangelis Pavlidis and goalkeeper Anatoliy Trubin also on the scoresheet. Kylian Mbappé netted both goals for Real.

Champions League		G	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	GD	P
9	Real Madrid	8	5	0	3	21	12	9	21:12	15
24	Benfica	8	3	0	5	10	12	-2	10:12	9

View Full Table

Benfica have 7 wins, 1 loss and 2 draws, averaging 2.0 goals from 6.8 shots on goal and 17.9 attempts. The Eagles have averaged 56.0% possession and 7.6 corners per match, with the opposition scoring 0.9 goals from 2.6 shots on goal, 7.9 attempts and 2.2 corners.

Top scorer is Vangelis Pavlidis on 8 goals, while Andreas Schjelderup has racked up 3 and Anisio Cabral 2. Vangelis Pavlidis is the top assists maker on 3, with goalie Anatoliy Trubin managing 4 clean sheets.

Real have 9 victories and 1 defeat, averaging 16.8 attempts, 6.6 shots on goal and 2.9 goals. Alvaro Arbeloa's men average 57.8% possession, 6.8 corners in their favour and 5.1 corners against, while 0.9 goals have been conceded from 3.8 shots on goal and 12.5 attempts.

Kylian Mbappe has scored 11 goals, followed by Vinicius Junior and Gonzalo Garcia on 4. Federico Valverde and Arda Guler have clocked up 4 assists, with Thibaut Courtois keeping 4 clean sheets in the last 10 games.

Confirmed Lineups

Benfica confirmed lineup (4-2-3-1): Anatoliy Trubin (GK), Amar Dedic, Tomas Araujo, Nicolas Otamendi, Samuel Dahl, Leandro Barreiro, Fredrik Aursnes, Gianluca Prestianni, Rafa Silva, Andreas Schjelderup, Vangelis Pavlidis.

Real Madrid confirmed lineup (4-4-2): Thibaut Courtois (GK), Trent Alexander-Arnold, Antonio Ruediger, Dean Huijsen, Alvaro Carreras, Federico Valverde, Arda Guler, Aurelien Tchouameni, Eduardo Camavinga, Kylian Mbappe, Vinicius Junior.

Benfica vs Real Madrid Prediction & Betting Tips

Our expert Benfica vs Real Madrid betting tips include a main match prediction, a correct score pick, corners forecast, standout player prop selections and bet builder advice. Explore each section below for detailed insights.

Match Prediction

We’re confident when it comes to Real Madrid landing a victory. It’s looking likely that the away team could have the upper hand in this Champions League clash and a price of -108 is highly appealing.

The formbook always proves to be helpful when it comes to providing football betting tips. The latest Champions League team news is also vital, with the stats helping to shape our opinion too.

Key Benfica vs Real Madrid Champions League & league stats:

• Real have won 9 of their last 10 games.
• Real have won 4 of their last 5 games.
• Real have won 3 consecutive games.

The best football bookies are estimating that there is a 51.8% likelihood of this pick landing a return. However, our research has found that the actual probability is between 55-60%. It is therefore regarded as a value bet.

If you’re able to forecast that Madrid will prosper along with the goal tally, then you can mix the two options to secure a bigger price on the Match Result & Total market.

Top up your wagering strategy by unlocking the top betting offers including free bets, promos, and sign-up deals.

Our Match Prediction

Real To Win @ -108 Bet Now

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Disclosure: This preview contains affiliate links; we may earn a commission at no extra cost to you. T&Cs apply. We only recommend licensed and regulated operators. See our Editorial Policy. Pick odds and lines reflect the price available at the time of publication (Feb 15, 21:28). Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Correct Score Prediction

Benfica 0 - 1 Real Madrid

There’s the option to wager on Los Merengues to win by a 1-0 scoreline. Odds of +850 are on offer and this is a correct score bet that should provide plenty of entertainment.

Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: Vinicius Junior Over 2.5 Shots -103

Vinicius Junior (Real Madrid) has totalled over 2.5 shots in six straight games. We are in favour of betting the -103 that he is able to cover the line, with this Player Shots wager looking like it might yield dividends.

Latest Vinicius Junior Player Prop Odds

Goalscorer

Anytime

+240

First

+700

Shots

Over 2.5

-139

Under 2.5

-

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Federico Valverde To Score +340

Federico Valverde (Real Madrid) can be wagered at +340 to be among the goals. Using all information, we’ll head to the Anytime Goalscorer market where we can bet him to find the net at attractive odds.

Latest Federico Valverde Player Prop Odds

Goalscorer

Anytime

+370

First

+1050

Shots

Over 1.5

-149

Under 1.5

-

Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Corners Prediction

Benfica Over 4.5 Corners -123

In their past ten games, Benfica have covered the 4.5 corners line, while the previous five Real Madrid away matches have involved them conceding over 4.5 corners. The Benfica Team Corners line looks attractive and we’re going to take the -123 that it’s covered.

Champions League & League Games

League Games

Last 10 Total For Against

Last 10 at Home Total For Against

Last 10 Away Total For Against

Benfica

Total

9.80 7.60 2.20

Home

8.20 5.90 2.30

Away

11.70 7.60 4.10

Real Madrid

Total

11.90 6.80 5.10

Home

11.00 7.20 3.80

Away

10.40 6.10 4.30

Latest Corner Odds

Total Corners

Over 10.5

+102

Under 10.5

-143

Benfica Corners

Over 4.5

-116

Under 4.5

-122

Real Madrid Corners

Over 5.5

+102

Under 5.5

-143

Most Corners

1

+130

X

+650

2

-128

Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Benfica vs Real Madrid Odds

The odds and lines below are updated regularly and may differ from the prices shown in our picks, which are captured at the time of publication.

The bookies have Real Madrid at +110 when it comes to Full-Time Result. This implies that the favourites are 48% likely to win this Champions League encounter according to the latest betting odds. Benfica are regarded as the least likely winner at +220.

There are various ways to back Real and one option is the Asian Handicap -0.25. There’s -120 currently available that they beat Benfica and there’s half a stake refund if the scoreline ends level.

The Total Goals odds suggest that Over 2.5 is a strong probability in this contest. BTTS betting is always a warm order and you can bet Yes at -200 on the Both Teams to Score market.

There are hundreds of markets which means lots of options to find a football bet for the latest Champions League match. The best betting sites leave no stone unturned to provide a first-class service.

Full-Time Result

1

+220

X

+265

2

+110

Half-Time Result

1

+240

X

+143

2

+160

Double Chance

1X

-143

12

-357

X2

-303

Draw No Bet

1

+125

2

-189

Asian Handicap

1 Hcp +0.25

-105

2 Hcp -0.25

-120

Total Goals

Under 2.5

+133

Over 2.5

-167

Both Teams to Score

Yes

-200

No

+150

Kylian Mbappé is the market leader to be First Goalscorer at +270 while there’s also the chance to back him to find the net at -128.

Kylian Mbappé (Real Madrid)

First

-128

Anytime

+270

Vangelis Pavlidis (Benfica)

First

+130

Anytime

+370

Vinicius Junior (Real Madrid)

First

+240

Anytime

+700

Rafa Silva (Benfica)

First

+280

Anytime

+750

Gonzalo García (Real Madrid)

First

+290

Anytime

+750

Franjo Ivanovic (Benfica)

First

+300

Anytime

+850

Dodi Lukébakio (Benfica)

First

+350

Anytime

+900

Federico Valverde (Real Madrid)

First

+370

Anytime

+1050

Henrique Araújo (Benfica)

First

+390

Anytime

+1000

Armindo ''Bruma'' Bangna (Benfica)

First

+420

Anytime

+1150

Arda Guler (Real Madrid)

First

+430

Anytime

+1100

Georgiy Sudakov (Benfica)

First

+475

Anytime

+1300

Franco Mastantuono (Real Madrid)

First

+480

Anytime

+1200

Gianluca Prestianni (Benfica)

First

+500

Anytime

+1400

Brahim Díaz (Real Madrid)

First

+550

Anytime

+1300

Andreas Schjelderup (Benfica)

First

+550

Anytime

+1400

Leandro Barreiro (Benfica)

First

+600

Anytime

+1800

Diogo Ferreira Prioste (Benfica)

First

+700

Anytime

+1900

Richard Ríos (Benfica)

First

+700

Anytime

+2000

David Jiménez (Real Madrid)

First

+800

Anytime

+2200

Eduardo Camavinga (Real Madrid)

First

+850

Anytime

+2200

Kylian Mbappé (Real Madrid)

Over 4.5

-115

Under 4.5

-

Vangelis Pavlidis (Benfica)

Over 3.5

-123

Under 3.5

-

Vinicius Junior (Real Madrid)

Over 2.5

-139

Under 2.5

-

Rafa Silva (Benfica)

Over 2.5

+135

Under 2.5

-

Dodi Lukébakio (Benfica)

Over 2.5

+128

Under 2.5

-

Richard Ríos (Benfica)

Over 1.5

+145

Under 1.5

-

Andreas Schjelderup (Benfica)

Over 1.5

+130

Under 1.5

-

Gianluca Prestianni (Benfica)

Over 1.5

-147

Under 1.5

-

Franco Mastantuono (Real Madrid)

Over 1.5

+132

Under 1.5

-

Georgiy Sudakov (Benfica)

Over 1.5

+104

Under 1.5

-

Arda Guler (Real Madrid)

Over 1.5

-127

Under 1.5

-

Armindo ''Bruma'' Bangna (Benfica)

Over 1.5

+114

Under 1.5

-

Henrique Araújo (Benfica)

Over 1.5

-118

Under 1.5

-

Federico Valverde (Real Madrid)

Over 1.5

-149

Under 1.5

-

Franjo Ivanovic (Benfica)

Over 1.5

-179

Under 1.5

-

Gonzalo García (Real Madrid)

Over 1.5

-143

Under 1.5

-

Brahim Díaz (Real Madrid)

Over 0.5

-244

Under 0.5

-

Leandro Barreiro (Benfica)

Over 0.5

-217

Under 0.5

-

Diogo Ferreira Prioste (Benfica)

Over 0.5

-152

Under 0.5

-

David Jiménez (Real Madrid)

Over 0.5

+104

Under 0.5

-

Eduardo Camavinga (Real Madrid)

Over 0.5

+105

Under 0.5

-

Latest Champions League and domestic league stats. Full Time Result, Goals, Corners and Possession.

Benfica Stats

Real Madrid Stats

Full-Time Result

• 7 wins, 1 defeat and 2 draws in the previous 10 matches
• 7 wins, 1 defeat and 2 draws in the previous 10 home matches

Full-Time Result

• 9 wins and 1 defeat in the previous 10 matches
• 5 wins, 2 defeats and 3 draws in the previous 10 away matches

Goals

• An average of 2.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded in the previous 10 matches
• An average of 2.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded in the previous 10 home matches
• An average of 2.90 goals per game in the previous 10 matches
• An average of 3.20 goals per game in the previous 10 home matches
• BTTS Yes in 5 of the previous 10 matches
• BTTS Yes in 5 of the previous 10 home matches
• Over 2.5 Goals in 6 of the previous 10 matches
• Over 2.5 Goals in 6 of the previous 10 home matches

Goals

• An average of 2.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded in the previous 10 matches
• An average of 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded in the previous 10 away matches
• An average of 3.80 goals per game in the previous 10 matches
• An average of 3.00 goals per game in the previous 10 away matches
• BTTS Yes in 6 of the previous 10 matches
• BTTS Yes in 5 of the previous 10 away matches
• Over 2.5 Goals in 6 of the previous 10 matches
• Over 2.5 Goals in 5 of the previous 10 away matches

Corners

• An average of 7.60 corners awarded and 2.20 corners conceded in the last 10 matches
• An average of 5.90 corners awarded and 2.30 corners against in the last 10 home matches
• An average of 9.80 corners awarded in the last 10 matches
• An average of 8.20 corners awarded in the last 10 home matches
• Had the most corners in 10 and least corners in 0 of the last 10 matches
• Had the most corners in 9 and least corners in 1 of the last 10 home matches

Corners

• An average of 6.80 corners awarded and 5.10 corners conceded in the last 10 matches
• An average of 6.10 corners awarded and 4.30 corners against in the last 10 away matches
• An average of 11.90 corners awarded in the last 10 matches
• An average of 10.40 corners awarded in the last 10 away matches
• Had the most corners in 6 and least corners in 3 of the last 10 matches
• Had the most corners in 7 and least corners in 2 of the last 10 away matches

Possession

• An average of 56.00% possession in the last 10 matches
• An average of 52.80% possession in the last 10 home matches
• Most possession in 8 of the last 10 matches
• Most possession in 7 of the last 10 home matches

Possession

• An average of 57.80% possession in the last 10 matches
• An average of 57.40% possession in the last 10 away matches
• Most possession in 9 of the last 10 matches
• Most possession in 9 of the last 10 away matches

Benfica vs Real Madrid Lineups & Team News

Avoid surprises — review the Benfica vs Real team news before you bet. Get the latest predicted and confirmed Champions League lineups and injury news right here.

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