Derby vs Leeds Prediction, Betting Tips, Lineups & Odds | 11 Jan 2026

FA Cup Betting Preview: Derby vs Leeds

Championship club Derby host Premier League team Leeds at Pride Park, with kick-off set for 07:00 on Sunday 11 January.

Leeds look like excellent value at -143 for bettors who are wagering on the Full-Time Result market. The favourites are capable of securing a win against Derby based on the numbers at our disposal.

Derby County were defeated last time out. Pride Park saw them beaten at home to Wrexham by a 2-1 scoreline in the Championship. John Eustace's side had 52% possession and six shots on target, with Ben Brereton Diaz scoring the goal.

Leeds United suffered a defeat in their previous game. A 4-3 Premier League scoreline occurred away from home at St James' Park against Newcastle United. The Whites were restricted to just 37% possession and managed six shots on goal, while Brenden Aaronson was on the scoresheet twice and Dominic Calvert-Lewin also found the net.

Head-to-Head Statistics

Leeds have racked up three consecutive wins over Derby. In the last encounter, Leeds banked a 1-0 Championship victory when visiting Pride Park. The previous 7 H2H meetings have involved five Leeds wins, a single draw and one Derby victory.

Championship		G	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	GD	P
11	Derby	34	13	9	12	49	45	4	49:45	48

Premier League		G	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	GD	P
15	Leeds	27	7	10	10	37	46	-9	37:46	31

3 wins, 4 losses and 3 draws, averaging 1.3 goals from 10.9 attempts and 4.0 shots on goal. Derby have had 42.7% possession and 5.9 corners per match. On average, the opposition have scored 1.3 goals from 11.2 attempts and 3.5 shots on goal, while earning 5.3 corners.

Top goalscorer Patrick Agyemang has found the net 4 times, with Ben Brereton Diaz, Bobby Clark, Rhian Brewster and Liam Thompson scoring 1 each. Matthew Clarke, Lars-Joergen Salvesen and Callum Elder have racked up the most assists with 2 each.

Leeds have won 2, lost 3 and drawn 5, averaging 4.7 shots on goal, 13.2 attempts and 1.9 goals. Daniel Farke's team average 42.5% possession, 365.8 passes, 4.7 corners taken and 4.5 corners against them, while 1.7 goals have been conceded from 14.0 attempts and 4.2 shots on goal.

Dominic Calvert-Lewin got 8 goals, Brenden Aaronson notched 3, while Anton Stach and two other players scored 2. Brenden Aaronson has had 2 assists in the previous 10 games, while Lucas Perri has one clean sheet to his name.

Confirmed Lineups

Derby confirmed lineup (4-4-1-1): Jacob Widell Zetterstroem (GK), Joe Ward, Sondre Klingen Langaas, Danny Batth, Craig Forsyth, Ben Brereton Diaz, Lewis Travis, Oscar Fraulo, Corey Blackett-Taylor, Bobby Clark, Lars-Joergen Salvesen.

Leeds confirmed lineup (4-4-2): Karl Darlow (GK), Sebastiaan Bornauw, Jaka Bijol, Ethan Ampadu, Wilfried Gnonto, Ao Tanaka, Ilia Gruev, Jack Harrison, Joel Piroe, Lukas Nmecha, Noah Okafor.

Derby vs Leeds Prediction & Betting Tips

Our Derby vs Leeds betting tips provide expert coverage of all major angles, including our main match prediction, top player prop picks, correct score recommendation, corners betting angle and best bet builder insights.

Match Prediction

There’s plenty of scope for Leeds to triumph in this FA Cup encounter and we’ll take them to secure a victory. Take the odds of -143 feeling optimistic that a win can be bagged.

We’re always aware of the injuries and suspensions for each team before we decide which way to go with our football picks. The form and data also help the FA Cup experts at Sportsgambler.com when it comes to a betting view on the action.

Key Derby vs Leeds FA Cup & league stats:

• Derby have lost their last 3 games against Leeds.

The betting apps are estimating that there is a 58.8% likelihood of this pick landing a return. Taking all factors into consideration, our tipsters think there’s a stronger chance of success and have a probability interval between 65-70%. This wager can therefore be backed with confidence.

Looking to bet Leeds for a victory but want to get a bigger price? Why not select the larger Double Result odds for our pick to be in front at both the interval and the final whistle.

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Our Match Prediction

Leeds To Win @ -143 Bet Now

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Disclosure: This preview contains affiliate links; we may earn a commission at no extra cost to you. T&Cs apply. We only recommend licensed and regulated operators. See our Editorial Policy. Pick odds and lines reflect the price available at the time of publication (Jan 9, 13:07). Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Correct Score Prediction

Derby 0 - 2 Leeds

Leeds are available to back at +550 to secure a 2-0 victory. This is a risky but potentially more rewarding bet, with this correct score option providing appeal.

Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: Noah Okafor Under 0.5 Shots On Target -115

Noah Okafor (Leeds) hasn’t registered a shot on goal in three straight away games. We can use these statistics to our advantage, with odds of -115 on offer that he fails to cover the Shots on Target line.

Latest Noah Okafor Player Prop Odds

Goalscorer

Anytime

+250

First

+575

Shots On Target

Over 0.5

-152

Under 0.5

-114

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Dominic Calvert-Lewin to Score +150

Dominic Calvert-Lewin (Leeds) has scored in seven of his past ten games. Based on the stats, we think that odds of +150 are really appealing when it comes to betting on Anytime Goalscorer.

Latest Dominic Calvert-Lewin Player Prop Odds

Goalscorer

Anytime

+150

First

+370

Shots On Target

Over 1.5

+132

Under 1.5

-238

Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Corners Prediction

Derby Over 3.5 Corners -118

Derby have had over 3.5 corners in nine consecutive home matches, with Leeds conceding over 3.5 corners in the previous three games. We’re going to take the Overs for Derby Team Corners, with this line standing out and you can get odds of -118.

FA Cup & League Games

League Games

Last 10 Total For Against

Last 10 at Home Total For Against

Last 10 Away Total For Against

Derby

Total

11.20 5.90 5.30

Home

11.90 6.70 5.20

Away

11.20 4.20 7.00

Leeds

Total

9.20 4.70 4.50

Home

8.70 5.30 3.40

Away

8.40 3.90 4.50

Latest Corner Odds

Total Corners

Over 9.5

-128

Under 9.5

-111

Derby Corners

Over 3.5

-143

Under 3.5

-100

Leeds Corners

Over 5.5

-119

Under 5.5

-119

Most Corners

1

+200

X

+650

2

-204

Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Derby vs Leeds Odds

The odds and lines below are updated regularly and may differ from the prices shown in our picks, which are captured at the time of publication.

Favourites Leeds United are regarded as the likeliest winners for this FA Cup clash. The -135 about them triumphing means a 57% chance of coming out on top based on their current betting odds. Derby County are the +375 outsiders, with the draw being a different option which could yield dividends.

A 2+ goal margin of victory for Leeds against Derby means a full payout at -106 when backing them on the Asian Handicap -0.75. A one-goal win means half the stake wins and half is refunded.

If you think there will be two goals or less during the ninety minutes, then Under 2.5 Goals is a potential option. If you’re betting on Both Teams to Score, you can back Yes at -109 and No at -125.

The top football betting sites have excellent coverage when it comes to all FA Cup matches. That means hundreds of markets from which to choose and something to suit everyone.

Full-Time Result

1

+375

X

+255

2

-135

Half-Time Result

1

+400

X

+123

2

+130

Double Chance

1X

+102

12

-357

X2

-556

Draw No Bet

1

+230

2

-357

Asian Handicap

1 Hcp +0.75

-123

2 Hcp -0.75

-106

Total Goals

Under 2.5

-135

Over 2.5

+105

Both Teams to Score

Yes

-109

No

-125

The First Goalscorer favourite is Dominic Calvert-Lewin at +370, with similar odds available for this player to register the last goal.

Dominic Calvert-Lewin (Leeds)

First

+150

Anytime

+370

Lukas Nmecha (Leeds)

First

+200

Anytime

+450

Joël Piroe (Leeds)

First

+200

Anytime

+460

Noah Okafor (Leeds)

First

+250

Anytime

+575

Wilfried Gnonto (Leeds)

First

+270

Anytime

+650

Patrick Agyemang (Derby)

First

+290

Anytime

+700

Brenden Aaronson (Leeds)

First

+300

Anytime

+700

Daniel James (Leeds)

First

+310

Anytime

+700

Anton Stach (Leeds)

First

+360

Anytime

+900

Ben Brereton (Derby)

First

+475

Anytime

+1200

Ao Tanaka (Leeds)

First

+525

Anytime

+1300

Rhian Brewster (Derby)

First

+575

Anytime

+1400

Pascal Struijk (Leeds)

First

+650

Anytime

+1500

Sean Longstaff (Leeds)

First

+650

Anytime

+1700

Bobby Clark (Derby)

First

+700

Anytime

+1600

Jayden Bogle (Leeds)

First

+750

Anytime

+1800

Ilia Gruev (Leeds)

First

+850

Anytime

+2200

Joe Rodon (Leeds)

First

+900

Anytime

+2200

Joe Ward (Derby)

First

+950

Anytime

+2200

Ethan Ampadu (Leeds)

First

+950

Anytime

+2200

Gabriel Gudmundsson (Leeds)

First

+950

Anytime

+2200

Lukas Nmecha (Leeds)

Over 0.5

-200

Under 0.5

+115

Joël Piroe (Leeds)

Over 0.5

-200

Under 0.5

+115

Noah Okafor (Leeds)

Over 0.5

-152

Under 0.5

-114

Wilfried Gnonto (Leeds)

Over 0.5

-143

Under 0.5

-123

Patrick Agyemang (Derby)

Over 0.5

-141

Under 0.5

-125

Daniel James (Leeds)

Over 0.5

-120

Under 0.5

-143

Anton Stach (Leeds)

Over 0.5

-110

Under 0.5

-164

Brenden Aaronson (Leeds)

Over 0.5

-109

Under 0.5

-161

Dominic Calvert-Lewin (Leeds)

Over 1.5

+132

Under 1.5

-238

Ben Brereton (Derby)

Over 0.5

+138

Under 0.5

-250

Rhian Brewster (Derby)

Over 0.5

+175

Under 0.5

-333

Ao Tanaka (Leeds)

Over 0.5

+180

Under 0.5

-345

Sean Longstaff (Leeds)

Over 0.5

+205

Under 0.5

-435

Pascal Struijk (Leeds)

Over 0.5

+215

Under 0.5

-455

Bobby Clark (Derby)

Over 0.5

+225

Under 0.5

-476

Jayden Bogle (Leeds)

Over 0.5

+250

Under 0.5

-588

Ilia Gruev (Leeds)

Over 0.5

+310

Under 0.5

-833

Joe Ward (Derby)

Over 0.5

+310

Under 0.5

-833

Joe Rodon (Leeds)

Over 0.5

+360

Under 0.5

-1000

Ethan Ampadu (Leeds)

Over 0.5

+370

Under 0.5

-1111

Gabriel Gudmundsson (Leeds)

Over 0.5

+370

Under 0.5

-1111

Latest FA Cup and domestic league stats. Full Time Result, Goals, Corners and Possession.

Derby Stats

Leeds Stats

Full-Time Result

• 3 wins, 4 defeats and 3 draws in the previous 10 matches
• 4 wins, 3 defeats and 3 draws in the previous 10 home matches

Full-Time Result

• 2 wins, 3 defeats and 5 draws in the previous 10 matches
• 1 win, 6 defeats and 3 draws in the previous 10 away matches

Goals

• An average of 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded in the previous 10 matches
• An average of 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded in the previous 10 home matches
• An average of 2.60 goals per game in the previous 10 matches
• An average of 2.40 goals per game in the previous 10 home matches
• BTTS Yes in 8 of the previous 10 matches
• BTTS Yes in 7 of the previous 10 home matches
• Over 2.5 Goals in 6 of the previous 10 matches
• Over 2.5 Goals in 4 of the previous 10 home matches

Goals

• An average of 1.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded in the previous 10 matches
• An average of 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded in the previous 10 away matches
• An average of 3.60 goals per game in the previous 10 matches
• An average of 3.00 goals per game in the previous 10 away matches
• BTTS Yes in 9 of the previous 10 matches
• BTTS Yes in 6 of the previous 10 away matches
• Over 2.5 Goals in 6 of the previous 10 matches
• Over 2.5 Goals in 5 of the previous 10 away matches

Corners

• An average of 5.90 corners awarded and 5.30 corners conceded in the last 10 matches
• An average of 6.70 corners awarded and 5.20 corners against in the last 10 home matches
• An average of 11.20 corners awarded in the last 10 matches
• An average of 11.90 corners awarded in the last 10 home matches
• Had the most corners in 6 and least corners in 4 of the last 10 matches
• Had the most corners in 7 and least corners in 3 of the last 10 home matches

Corners

• An average of 4.70 corners awarded and 4.50 corners conceded in the last 10 matches
• An average of 3.90 corners awarded and 4.50 corners against in the last 10 away matches
• An average of 9.20 corners awarded in the last 10 matches
• An average of 8.40 corners awarded in the last 10 away matches
• Had the most corners in 6 and least corners in 3 of the last 10 matches
• Had the most corners in 4 and least corners in 5 of the last 10 away matches

Possession

• An average of 42.70% possession in the last 10 matches
• An average of 44.30% possession in the last 10 home matches
• Most possession in 5 of the last 10 matches
• Most possession in 4 of the last 10 home matches

Possession

• An average of 42.50% possession in the last 10 matches
• An average of 47.70% possession in the last 10 away matches
• Most possession in 2 of the last 10 matches
• Most possession in 4 of the last 10 away matches

Derby vs Leeds Lineups & Team News

Get the latest team news for Derby vs Leeds before you bet. We’ll provide full coverage of predicted and confirmed FA Cup lineups alongside the newest injury information.

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