Derby vs Leeds Prediction, Betting Tips, Lineups & Odds | 11 Jan 2026

FA Cup Betting Preview: Derby vs Leeds

Championship club Derby host Premier League team Leeds at Pride Park, with kick-off set for 07:00 on Sunday 11 January.

Leeds look like excellent value at -143 for bettors who are wagering on the Full-Time Result market. The favourites are capable of securing a win against Derby based on the numbers at our disposal.

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Derby County were defeated last time out. Pride Park saw them beaten at home to Wrexham by a 2-1 scoreline in the Championship. John Eustace's side had 52% possession and six shots on target, with Ben Brereton Diaz scoring the goal.

Leeds United suffered a defeat in their previous game. A 4-3 Premier League scoreline occurred away from home at St James' Park against Newcastle United. The Whites were restricted to just 37% possession and managed six shots on goal, while Brenden Aaronson was on the scoresheet twice and Dominic Calvert-Lewin also found the net.

Head-to-Head Statistics

Leeds have racked up three consecutive wins over Derby. In the last encounter, Leeds banked a 1-0 Championship victory when visiting Pride Park. The previous 7 H2H meetings have involved five Leeds wins, a single draw and one Derby victory.

Championship		G	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	GD	P
13	Derby	26	9	8	9	35	35	0	35:35	35

Premier League		G	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	GD	P
16	Leeds	21	5	7	9	29	37	-8	29:37	22

3 wins, 4 losses and 3 draws, averaging 1.3 goals from 10.9 attempts and 4.0 shots on goal. Derby have had 42.7% possession and 5.9 corners per match. On average, the opposition have scored 1.3 goals from 11.2 attempts and 3.5 shots on goal, while earning 5.3 corners.

Top goalscorer Patrick Agyemang has found the net 4 times, with Ben Brereton Diaz, Bobby Clark, Rhian Brewster and Liam Thompson scoring 1 each. Matthew Clarke, Lars-Joergen Salvesen and Callum Elder have racked up the most assists with 2 each.

Leeds have won 2, lost 3 and drawn 5, averaging 4.7 shots on goal, 13.2 attempts and 1.9 goals. Daniel Farke's team average 42.5% possession, 365.8 passes, 4.7 corners taken and 4.5 corners against them, while 1.7 goals have been conceded from 14.0 attempts and 4.2 shots on goal.

Dominic Calvert-Lewin got 8 goals, Brenden Aaronson notched 3, while Anton Stach and two other players scored 2. Brenden Aaronson has had 2 assists in the previous 10 games, while Lucas Perri has one clean sheet to his name.

Derby vs Leeds Prediction & Betting Tips

Our Derby vs Leeds betting tips provide expert coverage of all major angles, including our main match prediction, top player prop picks, correct score recommendation, corners betting angle and best bet builder insights.

Match Prediction

There’s plenty of scope for Leeds to triumph in this FA Cup encounter and we’ll take them to secure a victory. Take the odds of -143 feeling optimistic that a win can be bagged.

We’re always aware of the injuries and suspensions for each team before we decide which way to go with our football picks. The form and data also help the FA Cup experts at Sportsgambler.com when it comes to a betting view on the action.

Key Derby vs Leeds FA Cup & league stats:

• Derby have lost their last 3 games against Leeds.

The betting apps are estimating that there is a 58.8% likelihood of this pick landing a return. Taking all factors into consideration, our tipsters think there’s a stronger chance of success and have a probability interval between 65-70%. This wager can therefore be backed with confidence.

Looking to bet Leeds for a victory but want to get a bigger price? Why not select the larger Double Result odds for our pick to be in front at both the interval and the final whistle.

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Our Match Prediction

Leeds To Win @ -143 Bet Now

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Correct Score Prediction

Derby 0 - 2 Leeds

Leeds are available to back at +575 to secure a 2-0 victory. This is a risky but potentially more rewarding bet, with this correct score option providing appeal.

Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: Noah Okafor Under 0.5 Shots On Target -115

Noah Okafor (Leeds) hasn’t registered a shot on goal in three straight away games. We can use these statistics to our advantage, with odds of -115 on offer that he fails to cover the Shots on Target line.

Latest Noah Okafor Player Prop Odds

Goalscorer

Anytime

+260

First

+575

Shots On Target

Over 0.5

-147

Under 0.5

-118

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Dominic Calvert-Lewin to Score +150

Dominic Calvert-Lewin (Leeds) has scored in seven of his past ten games. Based on the stats, we think that odds of +150 are really appealing when it comes to betting on Anytime Goalscorer.

Latest Dominic Calvert-Lewin Player Prop Odds

Goalscorer

Anytime

+155

First

+380

Shots On Target

Over 1.5

+140

Under 1.5

-263

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Corners Prediction

Derby Over 3.5 Corners -118

Derby have had over 3.5 corners in nine consecutive home matches, with Leeds conceding over 3.5 corners in the previous three games. We’re going to take the Overs for Derby Team Corners, with this line standing out and you can get odds of -118.

FA Cup & League Games

League Games

Last 10 Total For Against

Last 10 at Home Total For Against

Last 10 Away Total For Against

Derby

Total

11.20 5.90 5.30

Home

11.90 6.70 5.20

Away

11.20 4.20 7.00

Leeds

Total

9.20 4.70 4.50

Home

8.70 5.30 3.40

Away

8.40 3.90 4.50

Latest Corner Odds

Total Corners

Over 9.5

-122

Under 9.5

-116

Derby Corners

Over 3.5

-139

Under 3.5

-102

Leeds Corners

Over 5.5

-114

Under 5.5

-125

Most Corners

1

+195

X

+650

2

-200

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Derby vs Leeds Odds

The odds are updated on a frequent basis. You might therefore find that they are different to the ones listed for the above betting predictions.

Favourites Leeds United are regarded as the likeliest winners for this FA Cup clash. The -127 about them triumphing means a 56% chance of coming out on top based on their current betting odds. Derby County are the +360 outsiders, with the draw being a different option which could yield dividends.

The Asian Handicap -0.5 bet means you need your selection to simply win. Leeds are -128, although Derby are +0.5 at -102 and you win with the latter if things end in a draw.

If you think there will be two goals or less during the ninety minutes, then Under 2.5 Goals is a potential option. Providing that at least one side fails to score, then the No pick on the Both Teams to Score market will be a winner at -132.

The top football betting sites have excellent coverage when it comes to all FA Cup matches. That means hundreds of markets from which to choose and something to suit everyone.

Full-Time Result

1

+360

X

+240

2

-127

Half-Time Result

1

+390

X

+118

2

+138

Double Chance

1X

-103

12

-333

X2

-526

Draw No Bet

1

+215

2

-333

Asian Handicap

1 Hcp +0.5

-102

2 Hcp -0.5

-128

Total Goals

Under 2.5

-152

Over 2.5

+116

Both Teams to Score

Yes

-103

No

-132

The First Goalscorer favourite is Dominic Calvert-Lewin at +380, with similar odds available for this player to register the last goal.

Dominic Calvert-Lewin (Leeds)

First

+155

Anytime

+380

Joël Piroe (Leeds)

First

+200

Anytime

+475

Lukas Nmecha (Leeds)

First

+210

Anytime

+450

Noah Okafor (Leeds)

First

+260

Anytime

+575

Wilfried Gnonto (Leeds)

First

+280

Anytime

+650

Patrick Agyemang (Derby)

First

+300

Anytime

+700

Brenden Aaronson (Leeds)

First

+300

Anytime

+700

Daniel James (Leeds)

First

+310

Anytime

+700

Anton Stach (Leeds)

First

+380

Anytime

+900

Ben Brereton (Derby)

First

+500

Anytime

+1150

Ao Tanaka (Leeds)

First

+525

Anytime

+1300

Rhian Brewster (Derby)

First

+575

Anytime

+1400

Pascal Struijk (Leeds)

First

+650

Anytime

+1500

Sean Longstaff (Leeds)

First

+650

Anytime

+1700

Bobby Clark (Derby)

First

+700

Anytime

+1600

Jayden Bogle (Leeds)

First

+750

Anytime

+1800

Ilia Gruev (Leeds)

First

+900

Anytime

+2200

Joe Rodon (Leeds)

First

+900

Anytime

+2200

Ethan Ampadu (Leeds)

First

+950

Anytime

+2200

Gabriel Gudmundsson (Leeds)

First

+950

Anytime

+2200

Joe Ward (Derby)

First

+950

Anytime

+2200

Joël Piroe (Leeds)

Over 0.5

-200

Under 0.5

+112

Lukas Nmecha (Leeds)

Over 0.5

-192

Under 0.5

+110

Noah Okafor (Leeds)

Over 0.5

-147

Under 0.5

-118

Wilfried Gnonto (Leeds)

Over 0.5

-139

Under 0.5

-125

Patrick Agyemang (Derby)

Over 0.5

-137

Under 0.5

-127

Daniel James (Leeds)

Over 0.5

-116

Under 0.5

-154

Brenden Aaronson (Leeds)

Over 0.5

-109

Under 0.5

-161

Anton Stach (Leeds)

Over 0.5

-105

Under 0.5

-167

Dominic Calvert-Lewin (Leeds)

Over 1.5

+140

Under 1.5

-263

Ben Brereton (Derby)

Over 0.5

+140

Under 0.5

-263

Rhian Brewster (Derby)

Over 0.5

+170

Under 0.5

-333

Ao Tanaka (Leeds)

Over 0.5

+180

Under 0.5

-345

Sean Longstaff (Leeds)

Over 0.5

+210

Under 0.5

-455

Pascal Struijk (Leeds)

Over 0.5

+220

Under 0.5

-455

Bobby Clark (Derby)

Over 0.5

+220

Under 0.5

-476

Jayden Bogle (Leeds)

Over 0.5

+250

Under 0.5

-588

Joe Ward (Derby)

Over 0.5

+310

Under 0.5

-833

Ilia Gruev (Leeds)

Over 0.5

+320

Under 0.5

-833

Joe Rodon (Leeds)

Over 0.5

+360

Under 0.5

-1000

Ethan Ampadu (Leeds)

Over 0.5

+380

Under 0.5

-1429

Gabriel Gudmundsson (Leeds)

Over 0.5

+380

Under 0.5

-1429

Latest FA Cup and domestic league stats. Full Time Result, Goals, Corners and Possession.

Derby Stats

Leeds Stats

Full-Time Result

• 3 wins, 4 defeats and 3 draws in the previous 10 matches
• 4 wins, 3 defeats and 3 draws in the previous 10 home matches

Full-Time Result

• 2 wins, 3 defeats and 5 draws in the previous 10 matches
• 1 win, 6 defeats and 3 draws in the previous 10 away matches

Goals

• An average of 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded in the previous 10 matches
• An average of 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded in the previous 10 home matches
• An average of 2.60 goals per game in the previous 10 matches
• An average of 2.40 goals per game in the previous 10 home matches
• BTTS Yes in 8 of the previous 10 matches
• BTTS Yes in 7 of the previous 10 home matches
• Over 2.5 Goals in 6 of the previous 10 matches
• Over 2.5 Goals in 4 of the previous 10 home matches

Goals

• An average of 1.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded in the previous 10 matches
• An average of 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded in the previous 10 away matches
• An average of 3.60 goals per game in the previous 10 matches
• An average of 3.00 goals per game in the previous 10 away matches
• BTTS Yes in 9 of the previous 10 matches
• BTTS Yes in 6 of the previous 10 away matches
• Over 2.5 Goals in 6 of the previous 10 matches
• Over 2.5 Goals in 5 of the previous 10 away matches

Corners

• An average of 5.90 corners awarded and 5.30 corners conceded in the last 10 matches
• An average of 6.70 corners awarded and 5.20 corners against in the last 10 home matches
• An average of 11.20 corners awarded in the last 10 matches
• An average of 11.90 corners awarded in the last 10 home matches
• Had the most corners in 6 and least corners in 4 of the last 10 matches
• Had the most corners in 7 and least corners in 3 of the last 10 home matches

Corners

• An average of 4.70 corners awarded and 4.50 corners conceded in the last 10 matches
• An average of 3.90 corners awarded and 4.50 corners against in the last 10 away matches
• An average of 9.20 corners awarded in the last 10 matches
• An average of 8.40 corners awarded in the last 10 away matches
• Had the most corners in 6 and least corners in 3 of the last 10 matches
• Had the most corners in 4 and least corners in 5 of the last 10 away matches

Possession

• An average of 42.70% possession in the last 10 matches
• An average of 44.30% possession in the last 10 home matches
• Most possession in 5 of the last 10 matches
• Most possession in 4 of the last 10 home matches

Possession

• An average of 42.50% possession in the last 10 matches
• An average of 47.70% possession in the last 10 away matches
• Most possession in 2 of the last 10 matches
• Most possession in 4 of the last 10 away matches

Derby vs Leeds Lineups & Team News

Get the latest team news for Derby vs Leeds before you bet. We’ll provide full coverage of predicted and confirmed FA Cup lineups alongside the newest injury information.

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