Estonia vs Italy Prediction, Betting Tips, Lineups & Odds | 11 Oct 2025

World Cup qualifying Betting Preview: Estonia vs Italy

Estonia host Italy in this World Cup qualifying game at A Le Coq Arena, with kick-off set for 14:45 on Saturday 11 October. Our betting preview features expert predictions, betting tips, the latest odds, H2H stats and team news.

Will Estonia Cover the Line?

We think Estonia are able to avoid a three-goal defeat against Italy. It means we’ll take the underdogs on the Asian Handicap with a +2.5 goal start, especially at attractive betting odds of -103.

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Italy 5-0 Win in Previous H2H Encounter

Italy won their previous game by a 5-4 scoreline. It was against Israel at Nagyerdei Stadion in the World Cup qualifier. Gennaro Gattuso's side enjoyed 54% possession and recorded six shots on goal, while Moise Kean scored twice.

Head-to-Head Statistics

It was Italy who were victorious when they last faced Estonia. At Gewiss Stadium, a 5-0 home triumph was recorded.

Europe World Cup Qualification		G	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	GD	P
2	Italy	4	3	0	1	12	7	5	12:7	9
4	Estonia	5	1	0	4	5	13	-8	5:13	3

View Full Table

2 wins, 7 losses and 1 draw, averaging 0.8 goals from 2.1 shots on goal and 4.8 attempts. Estonia have had 41.1% possession and 2.4 corners per match. On average, the opposition have scored 2.1 goals from 8.2 shots on goal and 17.1 attempts, while being awarded 8.5 corners.

Top goalscorer Mattias Kaeit has found the net 2 times, with Rauno Sappinen, Rasmus Peetson, Maksim Paskotsi and Ioan Yakovlev scoring 1 each. Michael Schjoenning-Larsen, Ioan Yakovlev and Kevor Palumets have racked up the most assists with 1 each.

Italy have won 5, lost 3 and drawn 2, averaging 5.4 shots on goal, 15.0 attempts and 2.4 goals. Gli Azzurri average 54.5% possession, 518.3 passes, 5.0 corners awarded and 5.7 corners against, while 1.8 goals have been conceded from 10.7 attempts and 4.4 shots on goal.

Moise Kean is top of the team’s scoring charts with 5, while Giacomo Raspadori and Mateo Retegui have 4. Mateo Retegui and Giacomo Raspadori have had 4 assists in the previous 10 games, while Gianluigi Donnarumma has 3 clean sheets to his name.

Estonia vs Italy Prediction & Betting Tips

From our key match prediction to corners advice, correct score pick and a builder tailored for value — our Estonia vs Italy betting tips covers it all.

Match Prediction

The Asian Handicap route looks attractive considering you can get Estonia +2.5 at odds of -103. We think the underdogs can keep the scoreline close in this World Cup qualifying encounter and it’s a value wager.

The formbook always proves to be helpful when it comes to providing football betting tips. The latest World Cup qualifying team news is also vital, with the stats helping to shape our opinion too.

Key Estonia vs Italy stats:

• The +2.5 line has been covered by Estonia in 4 of their last 5 games at home.
• The +2.5 line has been covered by Estonia in 12 of their last 17 games at home.
• The +2.5 line has been covered by Estonia in 2 consecutive games at home.
• The -2.5 line hasn’t been covered by Italy in 20 consecutive games on the road.

Estonia +2.5 Probability

The best bookies are estimating that there is a 50.8% likelihood of this pick landing a return. However, our experts have this number between 55-60% based on their in-depth research. It is therefore regarded as a value wager.

Placing a Bet Builder is a recommended option if you want to bet on Estonia to cover the line but want more juice from your wager. Choose the various legs that you want to add in.

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Our Match Prediction

Estonia Asian Hcp +2.5 @ -103 Bet Now

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Correct Score Prediction

Estonia 0 - 2 Italy

We’re taking a correct score bet which involves Italy to win 2-0. The odds of +480 make plenty of appeal and you should hopefully get some entertainment with this wager.

Corners Prediction

Italy Under 6.5 Corners -102

Italy have had under 6.5 corners in seven consecutive away games, with Estonia conceding less than 6.5 corners in their past two home matches. There are odds of -102 when it comes to this Team Corners bet and we can see Italy fall short of the line here.

Competitive Games

League Games

Last 10 Total For Against

Last 10 at Home Total For Against

Last 10 Away Total For Against

Estonia

Total

10.90 2.40 8.50

Home

8.20 2.60 5.60

Away

11.90 2.30 9.60

Italy

Total

10.70 5.00 5.70

Home

10.90 6.90 4.00

Away

8.90 4.60 4.30

Latest Corner Odds

Total Corners

Over 9.5

-103

Under 9.5

-135

Estonia Corners

Over 2.5

+123

Under 2.5

-172

Italy Corners

Over 6.5

-135

Under 6.5

-103

Most Corners

1

+900

X

+1200

2

-1111

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Estonia vs Italy Odds

The odds are updated on a frequent basis. You might therefore find that they are different to the ones listed for the above betting predictions.

Betting Sites Have Italy as Huge Favourites

On the basis of the Full-Time Result betting, Italy are huge -1429 favourites to get the job done and that means a 93% probability of succeeding in this World Cup qualifying clash. Estonia are the rank outsiders at +2800 which suggests a low likelihood of winning.

There’s sometimes a case for betting on the Half-Time Result market, with Italy available at -278 and Estonia at +1300. The third option is the draw which is priced at +265.

If you’re looking to bet on more than two goals, then Over 2.5 has the lowest price. If you believe this suggests that there will be a one-sided or low-scoring affair, then BTTS No could be a great pick at -250.

You can find hundreds of markets for every World Cup qualifying match, with the top betting apps creating lots of different options. Check out the pre-game and In-Play selections before placing your football bets.

Full-Time Result

1

+2800

X

+950

2

-1429

Half-Time Result

1

+1300

X

+265

2

-278

Double Chance

1X

+600

12

-2500

X2

--100

Draw No Bet

1

+1700

2

-5000

Asian Handicap

1 Hcp +2.5

-103

2 Hcp -2.5

-119

Total Goals

Under 2.5

+200

Over 2.5

-270

Both Teams to Score

Yes

+175

No

-250

Moise Kean Heads First Goalscorer Market

Favourite Moise Kean is now available at +250 to be the First Goalscorer. You will find similar odds apply when it comes to him scoring the last goal.

Moise Kean (Italy)

First

-137

Anytime

+250

Mateo Retegui (Italy)

First

-125

Anytime

+270

Francesco Pio Esposito (Italy)

First

+105

Anytime

+320

Giacomo Raspadori (Italy)

First

+125

Anytime

+350

Riccardo Orsolini (Italy)

First

+140

Anytime

+450

Mattia Zaccagni (Italy)

First

+160

Anytime

+450

Matteo Politano (Italy)

First

+180

Anytime

+500

Nicolo Cambiaghi (Italy)

First

+200

Anytime

+550

Davide Frattesi (Italy)

First

+215

Anytime

+600

Hans Nicolussi Caviglia (Italy)

First

+300

Anytime

+800

Bryan Cristante (Italy)

First

+310

Anytime

+900

Nicolò Barella (Italy)

First

+330

Anytime

+900

Sandro Tonali (Italy)

First

+370

Anytime

+1050

Andrea Cambiaso (Italy)

First

+450

Anytime

+1300

Manuel Locatelli (Italy)

First

+475

Anytime

+1300

Federico Dimarco (Italy)

First

+525

Anytime

+1300

Alessandro Bastoni (Italy)

First

+550

Anytime

+1600

Riccardo Calafiori (Italy)

First

+600

Anytime

+1800

Diego Coppola (Italy)

First

+650

Anytime

+1900

Matteo Gabbia (Italy)

First

+700

Anytime

+2000

Matteo Politano (Italy)

Over 0.5

-244

Under 0.5

+148

Nicolo Cambiaghi (Italy)

Over 0.5

-222

Under 0.5

+132

Davide Frattesi (Italy)

Over 0.5

-185

Under 0.5

+120

Mateo Retegui (Italy)

Over 1.5

-159

Under 1.5

-100

Moise Kean (Italy)

Over 1.5

-147

Under 1.5

-109

Sandro Tonali (Italy)

Over 0.5

-133

Under 0.5

-122

Hans Nicolussi Caviglia (Italy)

Over 0.5

-125

Under 0.5

-122

Francesco Pio Esposito (Italy)

Over 1.5

-118

Under 1.5

-132

Bryan Cristante (Italy)

Over 0.5

-103

Under 0.5

-154

Nicolò Barella (Italy)

Over 0.5

+102

Under 0.5

-172

Giacomo Raspadori (Italy)

Over 1.5

+130

Under 1.5

-213

Riccardo Orsolini (Italy)

Over 1.5

+135

Under 1.5

-217

Federico Dimarco (Italy)

Over 0.5

+140

Under 0.5

-233

Andrea Cambiaso (Italy)

Over 0.5

+150

Under 0.5

-233

Mattia Zaccagni (Italy)

Over 1.5

+155

Under 1.5

-263

Manuel Locatelli (Italy)

Over 0.5

+190

Under 0.5

-333

Alessandro Bastoni (Italy)

Over 0.5

+215

Under 0.5

-370

Riccardo Calafiori (Italy)

Over 0.5

+240

Under 0.5

-435

Diego Coppola (Italy)

Over 0.5

+240

Under 0.5

-455

Matteo Gabbia (Italy)

Over 0.5

+280

Under 0.5

-588

Latest competitive match stats. Full Time Result and Goals.

Estonia Stats

Italy Stats

Full-Time Result

• 2 wins, 7 defeats and 1 draw in the previous 10 matches
• 2 wins and 8 defeats in the previous 10 home matches

Full-Time Result

• 5 wins, 3 defeats and 2 draws in the previous 10 matches
• 4 wins, 3 defeats and 3 draws in the previous 10 away matches

Goals

• An average of 0.80 goals scored and 2.10 conceded in the previous 10 matches
• An average of 0.60 goals scored and 2.20 conceded in the previous 10 home matches
• An average of 2.90 goals per game in the previous 10 matches
• An average of 2.80 goals per game in the previous 10 home matches
• BTTS Yes in 4 of the previous 10 matches
• BTTS Yes in 3 of the previous 10 home matches
• Over 2.5 Goals in 7 of the previous 10 matches
• Over 2.5 Goals in 6 of the previous 10 home matches

Goals

• An average of 2.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded in the previous 10 matches
• An average of 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded in the previous 10 away matches
• An average of 4.20 goals per game in the previous 10 matches
• An average of 3.10 goals per game in the previous 10 away matches
• BTTS Yes in 6 of the previous 10 matches
• BTTS Yes in 5 of the previous 10 away matches
• Over 2.5 Goals in 8 of the previous 10 matches
• Over 2.5 Goals in 5 of the previous 10 away matches

Corners

• An average of 2.40 corners awarded and 8.50 corners conceded in the last 10 matches
• An average of 2.60 corners awarded and 5.60 corners against in the last 10 home matches
• An average of 10.90 corners awarded in the last 10 matches
• An average of 8.20 corners awarded in the last 10 home matches
• Had the most corners in 0 and least corners in 8 of the last 10 matches
• Had the most corners in 1 and least corners in 6 of the last 10 home matches

Corners

• An average of 5.00 corners awarded and 5.70 corners conceded in the last 10 matches
• An average of 4.60 corners awarded and 4.30 corners against in the last 10 away matches
• An average of 10.70 corners awarded in the last 10 matches
• An average of 8.90 corners awarded in the last 10 away matches
• Had the most corners in 3 and least corners in 5 of the last 10 matches
• Had the most corners in 4 and least corners in 5 of the last 10 away matches

Possession

• An average of 41.10% possession in the last 10 matches
• An average of 41.00% possession in the last 10 home matches
• Most possession in 3 of the last 10 matches
• Most possession in 2 of the last 10 home matches

Possession

• An average of 54.50% possession in the last 10 matches
• An average of 50.80% possession in the last 10 away matches
• Most possession in 7 of the last 10 matches
• Most possession in 5 of the last 10 away matches

Estonia vs Italy Lineups & Team News

The Estonia vs Italy team news could change everything — review it before betting. We’ll share the most up-to-date confirmed World Cup qualifying lineups and injury information.