World Cup qualifying Betting Preview: Estonia vs Italy

Bottom-of-the-table Estonia host second-placed Italy in this World Cup qualifying game at A Le Coq Arena, with kick-off set for 14:45 on Saturday 11 October. Our betting preview features expert predictions, betting tips, the latest odds, H2H stats and team news.

Will Estonia Cover the Line?

We think Estonia are able to avoid a three-goal defeat against Italy. It means we’ll take the underdogs on the Asian Handicap with a +2.5 goal start, especially at attractive betting odds of -103.

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Italy 5-0 Win in Previous H2H Encounter

Last time out, Estonia played out a 0-0 draw when hosting Andorra in a friendly match at A. Le Coq Arena.

Italy won their previous match 5-4 against Israel in a World Cup qualifier played at Nagyerdei Stadion in Debrecen, Hungary. Gennaro Gattuso's side enjoyed 54% possession and recorded six shots on goal, while Moise Kean scored twice.

Head-to-Head Statistics

It was Italy who were victorious when they last faced Estonia. At Gewiss Stadium in Bergamo, a 5-0 home triumph was recorded. Italy enjoyed 70% possession and won the shots on target 13-2, with Mateo Retegui (2), Moise Kean, Giacomo Raspadori and Alessandro Bastoni finding the net.

Europe World Cup Qualification		G	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	GD	P
2	Italy	8	6	0	2	21	12	9	21:12	18
4	Estonia	8	1	1	6	8	21	-13	8:21	4

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Estonia – Last 10 Competitive Games

2 wins, 7 losses and 1 draw, averaging 0.8 goals from 2.1 shots on goal and 4.8 attempts. Estonia have had 41.1% possession and 2.4 corners per match. On average, the opposition have scored 2.1 goals from 8.2 shots on goal and 17.1 attempts, while being awarded 8.5 corners.

Top goalscorer Mattias Kaeit has found the net 2 times, with Rauno Sappinen, Rasmus Peetson, Maksim Paskotsi and Ioan Yakovlev scoring 1 each. Michael Schjoenning-Larsen, Ioan Yakovlev and Kevor Palumets have racked up the most assists with 1 each.

Italy – Last 10 Competitive Games

Italy have won 5, lost 3 and drawn 2, averaging 5.4 shots on goal, 15.0 attempts and 2.4 goals. Gli Azzurri average 54.5% possession, 518.3 passes, 5.0 corners awarded and 5.7 corners against, while 1.8 goals have been conceded from 10.7 attempts and 4.4 shots on goal.

Moise Kean is top of the team’s scoring charts with 5, while Giacomo Raspadori and Mateo Retegui have 4. Mateo Retegui and Giacomo Raspadori have had 4 assists in the previous 10 games, while Gianluigi Donnarumma has 3 clean sheets to his name.

Confirmed Lineups

Estonia confirmed lineup (4-2-3-1): Karl Hein (GK), Rasmus Peetson, Maksim Paskotsi, Maerten Kuusk, Joseph Saliste, Rocco Shein, Kevor Palumets, Mattias Kaeit, Markus Soomets, Robi Saarma, Alex Tamm.

Italy confirmed lineup (3-4-3): Gianluigi Donnarumma (GK), Giovanni Di Lorenzo, Alessandro Bastoni, Riccardo Calafiori, Riccardo Orsolini, Nicolo Barella, Sandro Tonali, Federico Dimarco, Giacomo Raspadori, Mateo Retegui, Moise Kean.

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Estonia vs Italy Prediction & Betting Tips

From our key match prediction to corners advice, correct score pick and a builder tailored for value — our Estonia vs Italy betting tips covers it all.

Match Prediction

The Asian Handicap route looks attractive considering you can get Estonia +2.5 at odds of -103. We think the underdogs can keep the scoreline close in this World Cup qualifying encounter and it’s a value wager.

The formbook always proves to be helpful when it comes to providing football betting tips. The latest World Cup qualifying team news is also vital, with the stats helping to shape our opinion too.

Key Estonia vs Italy stats:

The +2.5 line has been covered by Estonia in 4 of their last 5 games at home.
The +2.5 line has been covered by Estonia in 12 of their last 17 games at home.
The +2.5 line has been covered by Estonia in 2 consecutive games at home.
The -2.5 line hasn’t been covered by Italy in 20 consecutive games on the road.

Estonia +2.5 Probability

The best bookies are estimating that there is a 50.8% likelihood of this pick landing a return. However, our experts have this number between 55-60% based on their in-depth research. It is therefore regarded as a value wager.

Looking for Bigger Odds?

Placing a Bet Builder is a recommended option if you want to bet on Estonia to cover the line but want more juice from your wager. Choose the various legs that you want to add in.

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Our Match Prediction

Estonia Asian Hcp +2.5 @ -103 Bet Now

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Published 21:08, 09 October 2025

Correct Score Prediction

Estonia

0 - 2 Italy logo

Italy

We’re taking a correct score bet which involves Italy to win 2-0. The odds of +525 make plenty of appeal and you should hopefully get some entertainment with this wager.

Latest Correct Score Odds

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Corners Prediction

Italy Under 6.5 Corners -102

Italy have had under 6.5 corners in seven consecutive away games, with Estonia conceding less than 6.5 corners in their past two home matches. There are odds of -102 when it comes to this Team Corners bet and we can see Italy fall short of the line here.

Competitive Games

League Games

Last 10 Total For Against

Last 10 at Home Total For Against

Last 10 Away Total For Against

Estonia

Total

10.90 2.40 8.50

Home

8.20 2.60 5.60

Away

11.90 2.30 9.60

Italy

Total

10.70 5.00 5.70

Home

10.90 6.90 4.00

Away

8.90 4.60 4.30

Latest Corner Odds

Total Corners

Estonia Corners

Italy Corners

Most Corners

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Bet Builder Tips

Asian Handicap Estonia +2.5 -103

Total Goals Under 2.5 +200

Team Corners Italy Under 6.5 -102

If you fancy a same-game multi, then why not take Estonia with the +2.5 Asian Handicap, less than three goals in total accompanied by Italy to have under 6.5 corners.

A bet builder is a single event wager where you select outcomes for a particular football game. It’s a great bet to have if you’re confident of certain outcomes, especially as the price for each selection is combined.

Bet Boosts

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Estonia vs Italy Odds

The odds are updated on a frequent basis. You might therefore find that they are different to the ones listed for the above betting predictions.

Betting Sites Have Italy as Huge Favourites

On the basis of the Full-Time Result betting, Italy are huge -2000 favourites to get the job done and that means a 95% probability of succeeding in this World Cup qualifying clash. Estonia are the rank outsiders at +3300 which suggests a low likelihood of winning.

There’s sometimes a case for betting on the Half-Time Result market, with Italy available at -303 and Estonia at +1500. The third option is the draw which is priced at +285.

If you’re looking to bet on more than two goals, then Over 2.5 has the lowest price. If you believe this suggests that there will be a one-sided or low-scoring affair, then BTTS No could be a great pick at -250.

You can find hundreds of markets for every World Cup qualifying match, with the top betting apps creating lots of different options. Check out the pre-game and In-Play selections before placing your football bets.

Full-Time Result

Half-Time Result

Double Chance

Draw No Bet

Asian Handicap

Total Goals

Both Teams to Score

Moise Kean Heads First Goalscorer Market

Favourite Moise Kean is now available at +210 to be the First Goalscorer. You will find similar odds apply when it comes to him scoring the last goal.

Player Goals

Moise Kean (Italy)

Mateo Retegui (Italy)

Giacomo Raspadori (Italy)

Francesco Pio Esposito (Italy)

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Player Shots On Target

Matteo Politano (Italy)

Nicolo Cambiaghi (Italy)

Mateo Retegui (Italy)

Davide Frattesi (Italy)

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Player Shots

Moise Kean (Italy)

Mateo Retegui (Italy)

Giacomo Raspadori (Italy)

Francesco Pio Esposito (Italy)

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Best Betting Offers

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Last 5 Games

Estonia

Italy

Head to Head

Estonia vs Italy

Europe World Cup Qualification: 05/09 2025 Italy 5 Estonia 0

Team Stats

Latest competitive match stats. Full Time Result and Goals.

Estonia Stats

Italy Stats

Full-Time Result

2 wins, 7 defeats and 1 draw in the previous 10 matches
2 wins and 8 defeats in the previous 10 home matches

Full-Time Result

5 wins, 3 defeats and 2 draws in the previous 10 matches
4 wins, 3 defeats and 3 draws in the previous 10 away matches

Goals

An average of 0.80 goals scored and 2.10 conceded in the previous 10 matches
An average of 0.60 goals scored and 2.20 conceded in the previous 10 home matches
An average of 2.90 goals per game in the previous 10 matches
An average of 2.80 goals per game in the previous 10 home matches
BTTS Yes in 4 of the previous 10 matches
BTTS Yes in 3 of the previous 10 home matches
Over 2.5 Goals in 7 of the previous 10 matches
Over 2.5 Goals in 6 of the previous 10 home matches

Goals

An average of 2.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded in the previous 10 matches
An average of 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded in the previous 10 away matches
An average of 4.20 goals per game in the previous 10 matches
An average of 3.10 goals per game in the previous 10 away matches
BTTS Yes in 6 of the previous 10 matches
BTTS Yes in 5 of the previous 10 away matches
Over 2.5 Goals in 8 of the previous 10 matches
Over 2.5 Goals in 5 of the previous 10 away matches

Corners

An average of 2.40 corners awarded and 8.50 corners conceded in the last 10 matches
An average of 2.60 corners awarded and 5.60 corners against in the last 10 home matches
An average of 10.90 corners awarded in the last 10 matches
An average of 8.20 corners awarded in the last 10 home matches
Had the most corners in 0 and least corners in 8 of the last 10 matches
Had the most corners in 1 and least corners in 6 of the last 10 home matches

Corners

An average of 5.00 corners awarded and 5.70 corners conceded in the last 10 matches
An average of 4.60 corners awarded and 4.30 corners against in the last 10 away matches
An average of 10.70 corners awarded in the last 10 matches
An average of 8.90 corners awarded in the last 10 away matches
Had the most corners in 3 and least corners in 5 of the last 10 matches
Had the most corners in 4 and least corners in 5 of the last 10 away matches

Possession

An average of 41.10% possession in the last 10 matches
An average of 41.00% possession in the last 10 home matches
Most possession in 3 of the last 10 matches
Most possession in 2 of the last 10 home matches

Possession

An average of 54.50% possession in the last 10 matches
An average of 50.80% possession in the last 10 away matches
Most possession in 7 of the last 10 matches
Most possession in 5 of the last 10 away matches

Estonia vs Italy Lineups & Team News

The Estonia vs Italy team news could change everything — review it before betting. We’ll share the most up-to-date confirmed World Cup qualifying lineups and injury information.