Grêmio vs São Paulo Prediction, Betting Tips, Lineups & Odds | 16 Oct 2025

Série A Betting Preview: Grêmio vs São Paulo

Grêmio host São Paulo in this Brazilian Série A game at Arena do Grêmio, with kick-off set for 18:00 on Thursday 16 October. Our betting preview features expert predictions, betting tips, the latest odds, H2H stats, team news and both predicted and confirmed lineups.

The way forward could be to back Grêmio with a +0.25 Asian Handicap at -147 against São Paulo. This means our stake is split between 0 and +0.5, which allows us to land a return with a draw.

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Grêmio were beaten last game and this was on the road. Red Bull Bragantino claimed a 1-0 victory. The Immortal Tricolor had 40% possession and one shot on target.

São Paulo lost when they last played, being turned over 3-2 at home to Palmeiras. Hernan Crespo's team enjoyed 51% possession and five shots on goal, while Luciano Neves and Gonzalo Tapia were on the scoresheet.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The last clash between São Paulo and Grêmio saw the former win at home. It was a 2-1 scoreline. The previous 10 H2H meetings have seen São Paulo win five times, one draw and four Grêmio triumphs.

Série A		G	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	GD	P
8	São Paulo	36	13	9	14	40	46	-6	40:46	48
9	Grêmio	36	12	10	14	42	48	-6	42:48	46

View Full Table

3 wins, 3 losses and 4 draws, averaging 1.2 goals from 3.5 shots on goal and 7.8 attempts. Grêmio have had 47.0% possession and 2.8 corners per game. On average, they have conceded 1.0 goals from 5.2 shots on goal and 13.0 attempts, while the opposition have been awarded 5.2 corners.

Edenilson, Andre, Alexander Aravena and Tiago Volpi are joint-top scorers with 2 goals on the board. Andre is the leading assists maker with 3.

São Paulo have won 5, lost 4 and drawn 1, with an average of 1.3 goals from 9.1 attempts and 3.9 shots on goal. There’s been an average of 53.9% possession, 5.7 corners awarded and 4.4 corners against them, while they’ve conceded 0.9 goals from 8.9 attempts and 4.2 shots on goal.

Gonzalo Tapia is top of the team’s scoring charts with 3, while Luciano Neves and Damian Bobadilla both have 2. Enzo Hernan Diaz is the top assists provider in the last 10 games with 4.

Confirmed Lineups

Grêmio confirmed lineup (4-2-3-1): Gabriel Grando (GK), Marcos Rocha, Erick Noriega, Wagner Leonardo, Lucas Esteves, Dodi, Arthur, Alysson Edward, Edenilson, Francis Amuzu, Carlos Vinicius.

São Paulo confirmed lineup (4-4-2): Rafael (GK), Alan Franco, Robert Arboleda, Sabino, Mailton, Marcos Antonio, Alisson, Wendell, Rodriguinho, Luciano Neves, Gonzalo Tapia.

Grêmio vs São Paulo Prediction & Betting Tips

Our Grêmio vs São Paulo preview includes expert betting advice on all fronts — from a match prediction and correct score guidance to corners advice, player prop selections and a bet builder tailored for value.

Match Prediction

Grêmio look a good bet in this Série A clash and we can back them at -147 with a +0.25 goal start. The latest stats suggest that the home team can avoid defeat and potentially triumph.

The Série A tipsters at Sportsgambler.com always have a strong handle on team news. A form guide is also utilised for our betting verdict along with checking out the numbers that are going to help inform our final football picks.

Key Grêmio vs São Paulo league stats:

• The +0.25 line has been covered by Grêmio in 8 of their last 10 games at home.
• The +0.25 line has been covered by Grêmio in 4 of their last 5 games.
• The +0.25 line has been covered by Grêmio in 2 consecutive games at home.
• The -0.25 line hasn’t been covered by São Paulo in 15 of their last 19 games on the road.
• The -0.25 line hasn’t been covered by São Paulo in 7 of their last 10 games on the road.

When you look at the latest betting odds, our pick has a 59.5% chance of winning. Our tipsters think there’s a stronger chance of success and calculate the probability to be 65-70%. It is therefore regarded as a value bet.

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Our Match Prediction

Grêmio Asian Hcp +0.25 @ -147 Bet Now

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Correct Score Prediction

Grêmio 1 - 0 São Paulo

There’s plenty of juice to be found by backing Grêmio to win 1-0. We can’t pass up the odds of +600 when it comes to correct score betting and it’s a fun wager.

Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: Aldemir Ferreira Over 0.5 Shots On Target -116

Aldemir Ferreira (São Paulo) can be backed to record a minimum of one shot on goal at -116. The Shots on Target market allows us to follow this selection and get an attractive price in the process.

Latest Aldemir Ferreira Player Prop Odds

Goalscorer

Anytime

+360

First

+650

Shots On Target

Over 0.5

-118

Under 0.5

-137

Shots

Over 2.5

+128

Under 2.5

-

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Wagner Leonardo To Score +750

Wagner Leonardo (Grêmio) can be wagered at +750 to score. We’ll have a play on this Anytime Goalscorer wager as the betting odds look pretty attractive.

Latest Wagner Leonardo Player Prop Odds

Goalscorer

Anytime

+750

First

+1700

Shots On Target

Over 0.5

+240

Under 0.5

-526

Shots

Over 0.5

+270

Under 0.5

-

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Corners Prediction

São Paulo Over 4.5 Corners -125

The past 5 São Paulo away games have involved them having an average of 6.60 corners, with Grêmio conceding over 4.5 corners in their previous three matches. We think that the value can be landed by betting on Team Corners and you can get -125 that São Paulo go over the line.

League Games

League Games

Last 10 Total For Against

Last 10 at Home Total For Against

Last 10 Away Total For Against

Grêmio

Total

8.00 2.80 5.20

Home

9.00 4.00 5.00

Away

9.70 2.60 7.10

São Paulo

Total

10.10 5.70 4.40

Home

8.90 5.40 3.50

Away

10.80 5.00 5.80

Latest Corner Odds

Total Corners

Over 9.5

-109

Under 9.5

-130

Grêmio Corners

Over 4.5

-120

Under 4.5

-120

São Paulo Corners

Over 4.5

-125

Under 4.5

-110

Most Corners

1

+117

X

+600

2

-102

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Grêmio vs São Paulo Odds

The odds are updated on a frequent basis. You might therefore find that they are different to the ones listed for the above betting predictions.

The favourites have a 43% likelihood of success according to the bookies, with São Paulo chalked up at +130 to land a win in this Série A clash. Grêmio are an outside chance to get the job done and you can now back them at +235.

If you want to back the favourites with some insurance, then São Paulo are -172 on the Draw No Bet market. Alternatively, Grêmio are +125 and there is money back if the game ends all square.

When it comes to the Total Goals market, Under 2.5 is the shortest price for this exciting contest. Both Teams to Score betting is always popular and the No option on the BTTS market is available at -161.

The leading football betting sites provide bettors with an abundance of options. For every Série A match, you’re able to select from hundreds of markets and make the best choice.

Full-Time Result

1

+235

X

+200

2

+130

Half-Time Result

1

+310

X

-103

2

+200

Double Chance

1X

-179

12

-286

X2

-345

Draw No Bet

1

+125

2

-172

Asian Handicap

1 Hcp +0.25

-118

2 Hcp -0.25

-104

Total Goals

Under 2.5

-217

Over 2.5

+165

Both Teams to Score

Yes

+114

No

-161

Luciano da Rocha is favourite to be First Goalscorer at +380, while you can get similar odds if you want him to score the last goal.

Luciano da Rocha (São Paulo)

First

+195

Anytime

+380

Gonzalo Tapia (São Paulo)

First

+300

Anytime

+600

Aldemir Ferreira (São Paulo)

First

+360

Anytime

+650

Juan Dinenno (São Paulo)

First

+380

Anytime

+700

Carlos Vinícius (Grêmio)

First

+410

Anytime

+800

Cristian Olivera (Grêmio)

First

+450

Anytime

+950

Emiliano Rigoni (São Paulo)

First

+475

Anytime

+950

Oscar (São Paulo)

First

+475

Anytime

+950

Maílton (São Paulo)

First

+480

Anytime

+1000

Francis Amuzu (Grêmio)

First

+650

Anytime

+1300

Rodrigo Almeida Mendonca "Rodriguinho" (São Paulo)

First

+700

Anytime

+1500

Franco Cristaldo (Grêmio)

First

+700

Anytime

+1300

Alysson Edward Franco da Rocha dos Santos (Grêmio)

First

+700

Anytime

+1400

Wagner Leonardo (Grêmio)

First

+750

Anytime

+1700

Damián Bobadilla (São Paulo)

First

+800

Anytime

+1500

Robert Arboleda (São Paulo)

First

+850

Anytime

+1900

Luiz Gustavo (São Paulo)

First

+1000

Anytime

+1900

Camilo Reijers de Oliveira (Grêmio)

First

+1000

Anytime

+2200

Marcos Antônio Silva Santos (São Paulo)

First

+1050

Anytime

+2200

Alex Santana (Grêmio)

First

+1100

Anytime

+2200

Arthur Melo (Grêmio)

First

+1150

Anytime

+2200

Luciano da Rocha (São Paulo)

Over 0.5

-149

Under 0.5

-114

Gonzalo Tapia (São Paulo)

Over 0.5

-137

Under 0.5

-122

Aldemir Ferreira (São Paulo)

Over 0.5

-118

Under 0.5

-137

Juan Dinenno (São Paulo)

Over 0.5

-105

Under 0.5

-149

Carlos Vinícius (Grêmio)

Over 0.5

-103

Under 0.5

-164

Cristian Olivera (Grêmio)

Over 0.5

+110

Under 0.5

-189

Emiliano Rigoni (São Paulo)

Over 0.5

+130

Under 0.5

-217

Oscar (São Paulo)

Over 0.5

+135

Under 0.5

-217

Maílton (São Paulo)

Over 0.5

+165

Under 0.5

-303

Franco Cristaldo (Grêmio)

Over 0.5

+170

Under 0.5

-303

Francis Amuzu (Grêmio)

Over 0.5

+170

Under 0.5

-313

Rodrigo Almeida Mendonca "Rodriguinho" (São Paulo)

Over 0.5

+195

Under 0.5

-370

Alysson Edward Franco da Rocha dos Santos (Grêmio)

Over 0.5

+205

Under 0.5

-400

Damián Bobadilla (São Paulo)

Over 0.5

+210

Under 0.5

-385

Wagner Leonardo (Grêmio)

Over 0.5

+240

Under 0.5

-526

Robert Arboleda (São Paulo)

Over 0.5

+300

Under 0.5

-769

Alex Santana (Grêmio)

Over 0.5

+320

Under 0.5

-667

Marcos Antônio Silva Santos (São Paulo)

Over 0.5

+350

Under 0.5

-1111

Camilo Reijers de Oliveira (Grêmio)

Over 0.5

+370

Under 0.5

-1250

Arthur Melo (Grêmio)

Over 0.5

+390

Under 0.5

-1429

Luciano da Rocha (São Paulo)

Over 2.5

-143

Under 2.5

-

Aldemir Ferreira (São Paulo)

Over 2.5

+128

Under 2.5

-

Gonzalo Tapia (São Paulo)

Over 2.5

+114

Under 2.5

-

Maílton (São Paulo)

Over 1.5

+148

Under 1.5

-

Franco Cristaldo (Grêmio)

Over 1.5

+140

Under 1.5

-

Rodrigo Almeida Mendonca "Rodriguinho" (São Paulo)

Over 1.5

+108

Under 1.5

-

Francis Amuzu (Grêmio)

Over 1.5

+135

Under 1.5

-

Oscar (São Paulo)

Over 1.5

-100

Under 1.5

-

Emiliano Rigoni (São Paulo)

Over 1.5

-100

Under 1.5

-

Cristian Olivera (Grêmio)

Over 1.5

-154

Under 1.5

-

Carlos Vinícius (Grêmio)

Over 1.5

-175

Under 1.5

-

Juan Dinenno (São Paulo)

Over 1.5

-172

Under 1.5

-

Alysson Edward Franco da Rocha dos Santos (Grêmio)

Over 0.5

-270

Under 0.5

-

Wagner Leonardo (Grêmio)

Over 0.5

+270

Under 0.5

-

Damián Bobadilla (São Paulo)

Over 0.5

-250

Under 0.5

-

Robert Arboleda (São Paulo)

Over 0.5

-118

Under 0.5

-

Camilo Reijers de Oliveira (Grêmio)

Over 0.5

-100

Under 0.5

-

Marcos Antônio Silva Santos (São Paulo)

Over 0.5

-103

Under 0.5

-

Arthur Melo (Grêmio)

Over 0.5

+112

Under 0.5

-

Grêmio vs São Paulo Lineups & Team News

Before placing any bets on Grêmio vs São Paulo, check the team news first. Get the predicted and confirmed Série A lineups plus the latest injury updates from us.

Grêmio Team Page São Paulo Team Page

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