Grêmio vs São Paulo Prediction, Betting Tips, Lineups & Odds | 16 Oct 2025

Série A Betting Preview: Grêmio vs São Paulo

Grêmio host São Paulo in this Brazilian Série A game, with kick-off set for 18:00 on Thursday 16 October. Our betting preview features expert predictions, betting tips, the latest odds, H2H stats, team news and both predicted and confirmed lineups.

Grêmio Should Be Able to Cover the Line

The way forward could be to back Grêmio with a +0.25 Asian Handicap at -147 against São Paulo. This means our stake is split between 0 and +0.5, which allows us to land a return with a draw.

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2-1 Win for São Paulo in Last Head-to-Head

Grêmio were beaten last game and this was on the road. Red Bull Bragantino claimed a 1-0 victory. The Immortal Tricolor had 40% possession and one shot on target.

São Paulo lost when they last played, being turned over 3-2 at home to Palmeiras. Hernan Crespo's team enjoyed 51% possession and five shots on goal, while Luciano Neves and Gonzalo Tapia were on the scoresheet.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The last clash between São Paulo and Grêmio saw the former win at home. It was a 2-1 scoreline. The previous 10 H2H meetings have seen São Paulo win five times, one draw and four Grêmio triumphs.

Série A		G	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	GD	P
8	São Paulo	27	10	8	9	31	28	3	31:28	38
13	Grêmio	27	8	9	10	28	33	-5	28:33	33

View Full Table

3 wins, 3 losses and 4 draws, averaging 1.2 goals from 3.5 shots on goal and 7.8 attempts. Grêmio have had 47.0% possession and 2.8 corners per game. On average, they have conceded 1.0 goals from 5.2 shots on goal and 13.0 attempts, while the opposition have been awarded 5.2 corners.

Edenilson, Andre, Alexander Aravena and Tiago Volpi are joint-top scorers with 2 goals on the board. Andre is the leading assists maker with 3.

São Paulo have won 5, lost 4 and drawn 1, with an average of 1.3 goals from 9.1 attempts and 3.9 shots on goal. There’s been an average of 53.9% possession, 5.7 corners awarded and 4.4 corners against them, while they’ve conceded 0.9 goals from 8.9 attempts and 4.2 shots on goal.

Gonzalo Tapia is top of the team’s scoring charts with 3, while Luciano Neves and Damian Bobadilla both have 2. Enzo Hernan Diaz is the top assists provider in the last 10 games with 4.

Predicted & Confirmed Lineups

Grêmio predicted lineup (4-2-3-1): Gabriel Grando (GK), Gustavo Martins, Erick Noriega, Wagner Leonardo, Lucas Esteves, Dodi, Arthur, Alysson Edward, Edenilson, Cristian Pavón, Carlos Vinícius.

São Paulo predicted lineup (3-5-2): Rafael (GK), Alan Franco, Robert Arboleda, Sabino, Cedric Soares, Damián Bobadilla, Marcos Antônio, Alisson, Enzo Díaz, Luciano, Aldemir Ferreira.

Grêmio vs São Paulo Prediction & Betting Tips

Our Grêmio vs São Paulo preview includes expert betting advice on all fronts — from a match prediction and correct score guidance to corners advice, player prop selections and a bet builder tailored for value.

Match Prediction

Grêmio look a good bet in this Série A clash and we can back them at -147 with a +0.25 goal start. The latest stats suggest that the home team can avoid defeat and potentially triumph.

The Série A tipsters at Sportsgambler.com always have a strong handle on team news. A form guide is also utilised for our betting verdict along with checking out the numbers that are going to help inform our final football picks.

Key Grêmio vs São Paulo league stats:

• The +0.25 line has been covered by Grêmio in 8 of their last 10 games at home.
• The +0.25 line has been covered by Grêmio in 4 of their last 5 games.
• The +0.25 line has been covered by Grêmio in 2 consecutive games at home.
• The -0.25 line hasn’t been covered by São Paulo in 15 of their last 19 games on the road.
• The -0.25 line hasn’t been covered by São Paulo in 7 of their last 10 games on the road.

Grêmio +0.25 Probability

When you look at the latest betting odds, our pick has a 59.5% chance of winning. Our tipsters think there’s a stronger chance of success and calculate the probability to be 65-70%. It is therefore regarded as a value bet.

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Our Match Prediction

Grêmio Asian Hcp +0.25 @ -147 Watch Live Bet Now

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Correct Score Prediction

Grêmio 1 - 0 São Paulo

There’s plenty of juice to be found by backing Grêmio to win 1-0. We can’t pass up the odds of +575 when it comes to correct score betting and it’s a fun wager.

Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: Aldemir Ferreira Over 0.5 Shots On Target -116

Aldemir Ferreira (São Paulo) can be backed to record a minimum of one shot on goal at -116. The Shots on Target market allows us to follow this selection and get an attractive price in the process.

Latest Aldemir Ferreira Player Prop Odds

Goalscorer

Anytime

+370

First

+750

Shots On Target

Over 0.5

-116

Under 0.5

-135

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Wagner Leonardo To Score +750

Wagner Leonardo (Grêmio) can be wagered at +750 to score. We’ll have a play on this Anytime Goalscorer wager as the betting odds look pretty attractive.

Latest Wagner Leonardo Player Prop Odds

Goalscorer

Anytime

+750

First

+1700

Shots On Target

Over 0.5

+235

Under 0.5

-500

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Corners Prediction

São Paulo Over 4.5 Corners -125

The past 5 São Paulo away games have involved them having an average of 6.60 corners, with Grêmio conceding over 4.5 corners in their previous three matches. We think that the value can be landed by betting on Team Corners and you can get -125 that São Paulo go over the line.

League Games

League Games

Last 10 Total For Against

Last 10 at Home Total For Against

Last 10 Away Total For Against

Grêmio

Total

8.00 2.80 5.20

Home

9.00 4.00 5.00

Away

9.70 2.60 7.10

São Paulo

Total

10.10 5.70 4.40

Home

8.90 5.40 3.50

Away

10.80 5.00 5.80

Latest Corner Odds

Total Corners

Over 9.5

+105

Under 9.5

-149

Grêmio Corners

Over 4.5

-120

Under 4.5

-120

São Paulo Corners

Over 4.5

-125

Under 4.5

-110

Most Corners

1

+117

X

+650

2

-104

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Grêmio vs São Paulo Odds

The odds are updated on a frequent basis. You might therefore find that they are different to the ones listed for the above betting predictions.

Close Contest Expected According to Latest Odds

The 1x2 odds are available for this Série A encounter and you can secure +155 that São Paulo are victorious and +185 that Grêmio get the job done. Those wanting to wager the draw with the bookmakers can secure +215.

If you want to back the favourites with some insurance, then São Paulo are -128 on the Draw No Bet market. Alternatively, Grêmio are -105 and there is money back if the game ends all square.

When it comes to the Total Goals market, Under 2.5 is the shortest price for this exciting contest. Both Teams to Score betting is always popular and the No option on the BTTS market is available at -143.

The leading football betting sites provide bettors with an abundance of options. For every Série A match, you’re able to select from hundreds of markets and make the best choice.

Full-Time Result

1

+185

X

+215

2

+155

Half-Time Result

1

+250

X

+102

2

+225

Double Chance

1X

-217

12

-303

X2

-250

Draw No Bet

1

-105

2

-128

Asian Handicap

1 Hcp +0.25

-147

2 Hcp -0.25

+118

Total Goals

Under 2.5

-189

Over 2.5

+145

Both Teams to Score

Yes

-100

No

-143

Luciano da Rocha Favourite to Find the Net First

Luciano da Rocha is favourite to be First Goalscorer at +500, while you can get similar odds if you want him to score the last goal.

Luciano da Rocha (São Paulo)

First

+260

Anytime

+500

Gonzalo Tapia (São Paulo)

First

+330

Anytime

+650

Juan Dinenno (São Paulo)

First

+370

Anytime

+700

Aldemir Ferreira (São Paulo)

First

+370

Anytime

+750

Cristian Olivera (Grêmio)

First

+390

Anytime

+850

Emiliano Rigoni (São Paulo)

First

+480

Anytime

+1000

Oscar (São Paulo)

First

+500

Anytime

+1000

Alysson Edward Franco da Rocha dos Santos (Grêmio)

First

+550

Anytime

+1050

Franco Cristaldo (Grêmio)

First

+575

Anytime

+1200

Rodrigo Almeida Mendonca "Rodriguinho" (São Paulo)

First

+750

Anytime

+1500

Wagner Leonardo (Grêmio)

First

+750

Anytime

+1700

Damián Bobadilla (São Paulo)

First

+800

Anytime

+1700

Robert Arboleda (São Paulo)

First

+900

Anytime

+2000

Camilo Reijers de Oliveira (Grêmio)

First

+1000

Anytime

+2200

Alex Santana (Grêmio)

First

+1050

Anytime

+2000

Luiz Gustavo (São Paulo)

First

+1050

Anytime

+2000

Arthur Melo (Grêmio)

First

+1150

Anytime

+2200

Luciano da Rocha (São Paulo)

Over 0.5

-200

Under 0.5

+123

Gonzalo Tapia (São Paulo)

Over 0.5

-128

Under 0.5

-125

Aldemir Ferreira (São Paulo)

Over 0.5

-116

Under 0.5

-135

Cristian Olivera (Grêmio)

Over 0.5

-110

Under 0.5

-154

Juan Dinenno (São Paulo)

Over 0.5

-105

Under 0.5

-147

Alysson Edward Franco da Rocha dos Santos (Grêmio)

Over 0.5

+130

Under 0.5

-213

Emiliano Rigoni (São Paulo)

Over 0.5

+132

Under 0.5

-217

Oscar (São Paulo)

Over 0.5

+135

Under 0.5

-217

Franco Cristaldo (Grêmio)

Over 0.5

+145

Under 0.5

-238

Rodrigo Almeida Mendonca "Rodriguinho" (São Paulo)

Over 0.5

+195

Under 0.5

-345

Damián Bobadilla (São Paulo)

Over 0.5

+215

Under 0.5

-385

Wagner Leonardo (Grêmio)

Over 0.5

+235

Under 0.5

-500

Alex Santana (Grêmio)

Over 0.5

+290

Under 0.5

-588

Robert Arboleda (São Paulo)

Over 0.5

+310

Under 0.5

-833

Camilo Reijers de Oliveira (Grêmio)

Over 0.5

+340

Under 0.5

-1000

Arthur Melo (Grêmio)

Over 0.5

+350

Under 0.5

-833

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Grêmio vs São Paulo Lineups & Team News

Before placing any bets on Grêmio vs São Paulo, check the team news first. Get the predicted and confirmed Série A lineups plus the latest injury updates from us.

Grêmio Team Page São Paulo Team Page