Independiente vs Vélez Sarsfield Prediction, Betting Tips, Lineups & Odds | 12 Feb 2025

Independiente to Get the Better of Vélez

The standout bet can be found on the Full-Time Result market where Independiente are currently priced at +105. We think they can overcome Vélez Sarsfield and this looks a value play.

Vélez Too Good for Independiente in Last H2H

Independiente have landed successive home wins. Their last appearance was a 2-0 road loss against River Plate. Julio Vaccari's side had 46% possession and totalled three shots on target.

Vélez Sarsfield drew their previous game which was at home. The action ended 0-0 against San Lorenzo. El Fortín had an impressive 74% of possession and recorded one shot on goal.

Head-to-Head Statistics

Vélez are unbeaten when it comes to the past three meetings against Independiente. In their last clash, it was a 1-0 Copa Argentina home win for Vélez. The past 8 H2H matches have witnessed four draws along with two wins each.

Primera División		G	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	GD	P
5	Independiente	16	8	5	3	23	12	11	23:12	29
28	Vélez Sarsfield	16	4	2	10	7	22	-15	7:22	14

View Full Table

6 wins, 3 losses and 1 draw, averaging 1.3 goals from 5.0 shots on goal and 11.6 attempts. Independiente have had 53.9% possession and 5.6 corners per game. On average, their opponents have scored 0.9 goals from 3.5 shots on goal and 7.5 attempts, while being awarded 3.2 corners.

Gabriel Avalos is the top scorer with 5 goals, while Alvaro Angulo, Adrian Sporle, Luciano Cabral and Felipe Loyola each have 1. Leading assistor is Santiago Hidalgo with 2.

Vélez have 2 victories, 4 defeats and 4 draws, with an average of 0.4 goals from 8.5 attempts and 3.7 shots on goal. Sebastian Dominguez's team average 62.3% possession, 5.3 corners in their favour and 3.2 corners against, while conceding 0.8 goals from 7.0 attempts and 2.7 shots on goal.

Claudio Aquino is top of the team’s scoring charts with 2, while Damian Fernandez and Braian Romero both have 1.

Confirmed Lineups

Independiente confirmed lineup (4-2-3-1): Rodrigo Rey (GK), Federico Vera, Kevin Lomonaco, Sebastian Valdez, Adrian Sporle, Ivan Marcone, Felipe Loyola, Lautaro Millan, Luciano Cabral, Diego Tarzia, Gabriel Avalos.

Vélez Sarsfield confirmed lineup (4-2-3-1): Tomas Marchiori (GK), Jano Gordon, Patricio Pernicone, Aaron Quiros, Tomas Cavanagh, Agustin Bouzat, Christian Ordonez, Francisco Pizzini, Tomas Galvan, Alvaro Montoro, Michael Santos.

Independiente vs Vélez Sarsfield Prediction & Betting Tips

We can’t pass up the opportunity to back Independiente considering they are +105 to record a Primera División victory. We’ll take this bet with confidence based on the stats that are available to us.

The formbook is always a good place to start ahead of making football predictions. Team news is also an important port of call, while the stats we present always tell an interesting story.

Key Independiente vs Vélez Sarsfield league stats:

• Independiente have won all of their last 5 games at home.
• Independiente have won 7 of their last 10 games at home.
• Independiente have won 6 consecutive games at home.
• Vélez have lost 3 of their last 5 games.
• Vélez have lost their last 3 games on the road.

Independiente to Win Probability

According to the betting sites, our pick has a 48.8% chance of landing a return. After careful examination, our tipsters have this probability somewhere between 55-60%. It’s the reason why we are recommending this wager.

There are lots of ways to get with Independiente beyond the match winner market. This includes backing them to be leading at half-time and full-time and on the Asian Handicap.

Our Match Prediction

Independiente To Win @ +105 Bet Now

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Correct Score Prediction

Independiente 1 - 0 Vélez

Let’s take a chance on the +400 available that Independiente secure a 1-0 victory. There’s a nice potential return waiting if we’re able to predict the correct score.

Corners Prediction

Under 8.5 Corners -125

We’ve seen an average 5.80 corners in the past 5 Vélez games, while 7 of the last 10 Independiente home matches have featured under 8.5 corners. The number of corners could be lower than the line suggests and that leads us to a bet at odds of -125.

League Games

League Games

Last 10 Total For Against

Last 10 at Home Total For Against

Last 10 Away Total For Against

Independiente

Total

8.80 5.60 3.20

Home

8.10 4.70 3.40

Away

6.80 3.70 3.10

Vélez

Total

8.50 5.30 3.20

Home

9.70 7.30 2.40

Away

8.90 3.90 5.00

Latest Corner Odds

Total Corners

Over 8.5

-120

Under 8.5

-120

Independiente Corners

Over 4.5

-138

Under 4.5

-100

Vélez Corners

Over 3.5

-110

Under 3.5

-125

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Independiente vs Vélez Sarsfield Odds

The bookies betting odds have Independiente as -105 favourites for this Primera Division clash, implying that they are 51% likely to win the match. Vélez Sarsfield are regarded as a long shot to win and you can currently back them at +350.

The game is predicted to be a low-scoring one and that is borne out by Under 2.5 Goals trading at short odds.

The football betting sites offer a Draw No Bet market for all Primera División matches and you can back Independiente at -275 and Vélez Sarsfield at +200.

Full-Time Result

1

-105

X

+220

2

+350

Half-Time Result

1

+175

X

-110

2

+450

Double Chance

1X

-549

12

-275

X2

-125

Draw No Bet

1

-275

2

+200

Asian Handicap

1 Hcp -0.5

-103

2 Hcp +0.5

-114

Total Goals

Under 2.5

-250

Over 2.5

+187.5

Both Teams to Score

Yes

+137.5

No

-188

Independiente vs Vélez Sarsfield Lineups & Team News

It’s good to know about any injuries and this is reflected in our Independiente vs Vélez team news, with this leading to predicted and confirmed lineups.

Getting the player information you need is easy thanks to the Primera División squads.

Independiente Team Page Vélez Sarsfield Team Page