Italy vs Estonia Prediction, Betting Tips, Lineups & Odds | 05 Sep 2025

By Richard Clarke, Football Analyst | Published: 6 hours ago | 4 min read

Italy

Football Europe World Cup Qualification Gewiss Stadium Fri 5 Sep 14:45

Estonia

Prediction
Odds
Stats
Team News
Squads
Table

World Cup qualifying Betting Preview: Italy vs Estonia

Italy host Estonia in this World Cup qualifying clash at Gewiss Stadium, with kick-off set for 14:45 on Friday 5 September 2025. Our betting preview features expert predictions, betting tips, the latest odds, H2H stats and team news.

Grab the Big Line When it Comes to Estonia

There’s an argument for backing Estonia +3 for the Asian Handicap at odds of -125. We expect the visitors to exceed expectations when they clash with Italy and we’re feeling confident.

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Italy Triumphed in Last Game

Italy were winners in their last game, overcoming Moldova by a 2-0 scoreline at Stadio Giglio in the World Cup qualifier. Gennaro Gattuso's side managed seven shots on target and enjoyed 66% possession, while Giacomo Raspadori and Andrea Cambiaso each scored one goal.

Estonia were defeated in their previous game, being beaten at home to Norway by a 1-0 World Cup qualifying scoreline at A Le Coq Arena. The Blueshirts finished with just 38% possession and had two shots on goal.

Europe World Cup Qualification		G	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	GD	P
3	Italy	2	1	0	1	2	3	-1	2:3	3
4	Estonia	4	1	0	3	5	8	-3	5:8	3

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Italy – Last 10 Competitive Games

Italy have 5 wins, 3 losses and 2 draws, averaging 1.9 goals from 4.8 shots on goal and 12.5 attempts. Gennaro Gattuso's men have averaged 51.9% possession, 519.6 passes and 4.1 corners per game, with the opposition getting 1.6 goals from 4.1 shots on goal, 10.8 attempts and 5.5 corners.

Giacomo Raspadori, Andrea Cambiaso, Moise Kean and Davide Frattesi are the top scorers with 3 goals each, while Davide Frattesi has 3. Giacomo Raspadori and Federico Dimarco are top assists makers with 3, while goalkeeper Gianluigi Donnarumma has kept 2 clean sheets.

Estonia – Last 10 Competitive Games

Estonia have 2 victories, 7 defeats and 1 draw, with an average of 0.8 goals from 2.1 shots on goal and 4.8 attempts. The Blueshirts have averaged 41.8% possession, 2.2 corners awarded and 8.0 corners against, while they’ve conceded 1.7 goals from 7.6 shots on goal and 15.2 attempts.

Mattias Kaeit is top of the team’s scoring charts with 2, while Rauno Sappinen, Rasmus Peetson, Maksim Paskotsi and Ioan Yakovlev have 1. Michael Schjoenning-Larsen, Ioan Yakovlev and Kevor Palumets have managed 1 assists in the last 10 games.

Italy vs Estonia Prediction & Betting Tips

Our Italy vs Estonia betting preview covers everything you need, including a key match prediction, a corners betting angle, correct score insight, top player prop bets and a value-packed bet builder recommendation.

Match Prediction

We anticipate that Estonia will perform above expectation in this World Cup qualifying match and we’ll take the visitors at +3 on the Asian Handicap. Betting odds of -125 look really attractive that they’re able secure a payout.

Team news is very useful and our football tipsters are keen to identify the players who are doubtful with injury. You’ll also find us studying the form guide, with lots of World Cup qualifying data available which provides a clear picture from the stats.

Key Italy vs Estonia stats:

The +3 line has been covered by Estonia in 6 consecutive games.
The +3 line has been covered by Estonia in 17 of their last 20 games on the road.
The +3 line has been covered by Estonia in 8 of their last 10 games.
The -3 line hasn’t been covered by Italy in 6 consecutive games.
The -3 line hasn’t been covered by Italy in any of their last 10 games.
The -3 line hasn’t been covered by Italy in 19 of their last 20 games.

Estonia +3 Probability

When you look at the latest betting odds, our pick has a 55.6% chance of winning. Based on our in-depth research, we calculate the actual probability to be 60-65%. The wager can be recommended for this precise reason.

Looking for Bigger Odds?

There are ways of betting on Estonia to win by a certain number of goals thanks to the Winning Margin market, with this being a nice alternative to Asian Handicap.

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Our Match Prediction

Estonia Asian Hcp +3 @ -125 Bet Now

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Published 21:07, 03 September 2025

Correct Score Prediction

Italy

2 - 0 Estonia logo

Estonia

A 2-0 win in favor of Italy can be backed at odds of +550. We like placing a bet on correct score due to the fun element and the big potential return.

Latest Correct Score Odds

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Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: Mateo Retegui Under 1.5 Shots On Target -105

Mateo Retegui (Italy) has recorded under 1.5 shots on goal in four straight matches. We think he might not cover the line, with odds of -105 being served up for this Shots on Target bet.

Latest Mateo Retegui Player Prop Odds

Goalscorer

Shots On Target

Shots

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Giacomo Raspadori To Score +105

Giacomo Raspadori (Italy) can be wagered at +105 to score. There are appealing odds on offer for this Anytime Goalscorer pick and we think this is an attractive wager for him to be on the scoresheet.

Latest Giacomo Raspadori Player Prop Odds

Goalscorer

Shots On Target

Shots

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Corners Prediction

Italy Under 7.5 Corners -110

In their past six games, Italy have not covered the 7.5 corners line, while the previous three Estonia matches have involved them conceding under 7.5 corners. We’re happy to back the -110 when it comes to Italy falling short of the Team Corners line which looks generous.

Competitive Games

League Games

Last 10 Total For Against

Last 10 at Home Total For Against

Last 10 Away Total For Against

Italy

Total

9.60 4.10 5.50

Home

10.40 6.40 4.00

Away

8.50 4.40 4.10

Estonia

Total

10.20 2.20 8.00

Home

8.20 2.60 5.60

Away

10.90 2.20 8.70

Latest Corner Odds

Total Corners

Italy Corners

Estonia Corners

Most Corners

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Bet Builder Tips

Asian Handicap Estonia +3 -125

Both Team To Score No -244

Shots On Target Mateo Retegui Under 1.5 -105

If you want to follow our bet builder, try Estonia with an Asian Handicap of +3, No on the Both Teams to Score market accompanied by Mateo Retegui (Italy) to finish with under 1.5 shots on target.

Should you want to back different outcomes for the same football game, then a bet builder will suit your needs. You require all predictions to be on the money and our readers enjoy placing a tailored wager on a specific encounter taking place.

Bet Boosts

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Italy vs Estonia Odds

The odds are updated on a frequent basis. You might therefore find that they are different to the ones listed for the above betting predictions.

Italy Massive Favourites to Win

Italy are operating as the colossal -2000 favourites for this World Cup qualifying clash. This means the bookies give them a 95% chance of victory. Estonia are the underdogs at +3500 which implies a low percentage prospect of winning.

If you want to back the favourites to be ahead by the break, then Italy are -294 on the Half-Time Result market. Alternatively, Estonia are +1400 and the draw is priced at +285.

If you’re looking to bet on more than two goals, then Over 2.5 has the lowest price. Providing that at least one side fails to score, then the No pick on the Both Teams to Score market will be a winner at -244.

If you visit one of the recommended betting sites, it’s fantastic to access hundreds of markets for whichever World Cup qualifying game appeals. Scan through the choices and pick your football wager.

Full-Time Result

Half-Time Result

Draw No Bet

Asian Handicap

Total Goals

Both Teams to Score

Moise Kean Favourite to Be First Goalscorer

Favourite Moise Kean is available at +265 to be the First Goalscorer. Similar odds apply if you’re interested in him to score the last goal.

Player Goals

Moise Kean (Italy)

Mateo Retegui (Italy)

Giacomo Raspadori (Italy)

Davide Frattesi (Italy)

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Player Shots On Target

Davide Frattesi (Italy)

Mateo Retegui (Italy)

Moise Kean (Italy)

Nicolò Barella (Italy)

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Player Shots

Moise Kean (Italy)

Over 4.5

+117

Under 4.5

Mateo Retegui (Italy)

Over 4.5

-115

Under 4.5

Giacomo Raspadori (Italy)

Over 3.5

+128

Under 3.5

Davide Frattesi (Italy)

Over 2.5

-123

Under 2.5

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Last 5 Games

Italy

Estonia

Team Stats

Latest competitive match stats. Full Time Result and Goals.

Italy Stats

Estonia Stats

Full-Time Result

5 wins, 3 defeats and 2 draws in the previous 10 matches
6 wins, 3 defeats and 1 draw in the previous 10 home matches

Full-Time Result

2 wins, 7 defeats and 1 draw in the previous 10 matches
1 win, 7 defeats and 2 draws in the previous 10 away matches

Goals

An average of 1.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded in the previous 10 matches
An average of 2.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded in the previous 10 home matches
An average of 3.50 goals per game in the previous 10 matches
An average of 3.80 goals per game in the previous 10 home matches
BTTS Yes in 7 of the previous 10 matches
BTTS Yes in 8 of the previous 10 home matches
Over 2.5 Goals in 8 of the previous 10 matches
Over 2.5 Goals in 9 of the previous 10 home matches

Goals

An average of 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded in the previous 10 matches
An average of 0.70 goals scored and 2.30 conceded in the previous 10 away matches
An average of 2.50 goals per game in the previous 10 matches
An average of 3.00 goals per game in the previous 10 away matches
BTTS Yes in 4 of the previous 10 matches
BTTS Yes in 5 of the previous 10 away matches
Over 2.5 Goals in 6 of the previous 10 matches
Over 2.5 Goals in 6 of the previous 10 away matches

Corners

An average of 4.10 corners awarded and 5.50 corners conceded in the last 10 matches
An average of 6.40 corners awarded and 4.00 corners against in the last 10 home matches
An average of 9.60 corners awarded in the last 10 matches
An average of 10.40 corners awarded in the last 10 home matches
Had the most corners in 3 and least corners in 6 of the last 10 matches
Had the most corners in 7 and least corners in 2 of the last 10 home matches

Corners

An average of 2.20 corners awarded and 8.00 corners conceded in the last 10 matches
An average of 2.20 corners awarded and 8.70 corners against in the last 10 away matches
An average of 10.20 corners awarded in the last 10 matches
An average of 10.90 corners awarded in the last 10 away matches
Had the most corners in 0 and least corners in 8 of the last 10 matches
Had the most corners in 1 and least corners in 9 of the last 10 away matches

Possession

An average of 51.90% possession in the last 10 matches
An average of 57.20% possession in the last 10 home matches
Most possession in 5 of the last 10 matches
Most possession in 7 of the last 10 home matches

Possession

An average of 41.80% possession in the last 10 matches
An average of 38.80% possession in the last 10 away matches
Most possession in 3 of the last 10 matches
Most possession in 2 of the last 10 away matches

Italy vs Estonia Lineups & Team News

Don’t bet on Italy vs Estonia without reviewing the latest team news. Get the confirmed World Cup qualifying lineups and the most recent injury news from us.