Marseille vs Ajax Prediction, Betting Tips, Lineups & Odds | 30 Sep 2025

Champions League Betting Preview: Marseille vs Ajax

French Ligue 1 side Marseille host Dutch Eredivisie club Ajax in this Champions League match at Stade Vélodrome, with kick-off set for 15:00 on Tuesday 30 September. Our betting preview features expert predictions, betting tips, the latest odds, H2H stats, team news and both predicted and confirmed lineups.

OM Look the Best Bet

We like Marseille -1 at betting odds of -123. This Asian Handicap bet means we need the hosts to win by two goals to land a return, with our money back if they beat Ajax by a one-goal margin.

Trusting our Asian Handicap bet? Read our thorough BetMGM review, then take advantage of the best promo code for today before jumping in.

Both Teams Victorious in Last Game

Marseille won their last game 2-1. This was a Ligue 1 road win against Strasbourg at Stade de la Meinau. Roberto De Zerbi's team boasted 60% possession and recorded nine shots on target, with Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang and Amir Murillo scoring one goal apiece.

Ajax won their previous game, beating NAC Breda at home. It was a 2-1 Eredivisie victory at Johan Cruyff Arena. The Sons of God had 51% possession and recorded seven shots on goal, while Oscar Gloukh and Kenneth Taylor found the net.

In their most recent Champions League matches, Marseille were away to Real Madrid and lost 2-1, while Ajax lost 2-0 at home to Inter Milan.

Champions League		G	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	GD	P
25	Marseille	1	0	0	1	1	2	-1	1:2	0
30	Ajax	1	0	0	1	0	2	-2	0:2	0

View Full Table

7 wins, 2 losses and 1 draw, averaging 2.4 goals from 5.6 shots on goal and 14.1 attempts. Marseille have had 56.8% possession, 520.4 passes and 6.3 corners per game. On average, their opponents have scored 1.0 goals from 3.2 shots on goal and 9.4 attempts, while being awarded 3.2 corners.

Amine Gouiri is the top scorer with 6 goals, while Mason Greenwood has 5 and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang 3. Mason Greenwood is the top assists maker on 5, with goalkeepers Geronimo Rulli and Jeffrey De Lange managing 2 clean sheets between them.

Ajax have won 5, lost 1 and drawn 4, with an average of 6.2 shots on goal, 15.5 attempts and 1.8 goals. Johnny Heitinga's team average 57.1% possession, 529.8 passes, 6.4 corners awarded and 4.7 corners against, while 1.2 goals have been conceded from 11.0 attempts and 4.5 shots on goal.

Wout Weghorst has scored 5 goals, followed by Kenneth Taylor, Oscar Gloukh, Davy Klaassen and Mika Godts on 2. Steven Berghuis has clocked up 3 assists, with Vitezslav Jaros and Remko Pasveer collectively keeping 3 clean sheets in the previous 10 games.

Predicted & Confirmed Lineups

Marseille predicted lineup (4-2-3-1): Gerónimo Rulli (GK), Amir Murillo, Leonardo Balerdi, Nayef Aguerd, Emerson, Matt O'Riley, Pierre Emil Højbjerg, Mason Greenwood, Angel Gomes, Timothy Weah, Amine Gouiri.

Ajax predicted lineup (4-3-3): Vitezslav Jaros (GK), Anton Gaaei, Ko Itakura, Youri Baas, Owen Wijndal, Youri Regeer, Davy Klaassen, Kenneth Taylor, Oliver Valaker Edvardsen, Wouter Weghorst, Mika Godts.

Marseille vs Ajax Prediction & Betting Tips

This expert Marseille vs Ajax betting breakdown features our match prediction, a correct score tip, corners analysis, player prop suggestions and a carefully constructed bet builder to guide your wagers.

Match Prediction

We’re sweet on Marseille for this Champions League game. The favourites are available at -1 on the Asian Handicap and we’re happy to take odds of -123 that are currently on offer for this pick.

The team at Sportsgambler.com are right across the latest Champions League injury news and the form guide also informs our football predictions. This data is combined with the latest stats.

Key Marseille vs Ajax Champions League & league stats:

• The -1 line has been covered by OM in 4 of their last 5 games at home.
• The -1 line has been covered by OM in 7 of their last 10 games at home.

Marseille -1 Probability

When you look at the latest betting odds, our pick has a 55.2% chance of winning. However, our tipsters in-depth research has found that the actual probability is between 60-65%. That means we’re regarding it as a value bet.

It’s good to explore all avenues and you might prefer bigger odds about the prediction you want to make. Go ahead and move the line until you’re happy with the price.

Give yourself a head start. Find betting offers that include generous free bets and welcome packages in our bonus guide.

Our Match Prediction

Marseille Asian Hcp -1 @ -123 Bet Now

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Correct Score Prediction

Marseille 2 - 0 Ajax

Marseille are available at +700 to secure a 2-0 victory. Many bettors enjoy a correct score wager and there are some nice potential returns to be had.

Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: Matt O'Riley Under 0.5 Shots On Target -132

Matt O'Riley (OM) hasn’t managed a shot on goal in three consecutive matches. We’ll go with the latest numbers and back him to go under the Shots on Target line at odds of -132.

Latest Matt O'Riley Player Prop Odds

Goalscorer

Anytime

+290

First

+750

Shots On Target

Over 0.5

-120

Under 0.5

-132

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Mason Greenwood to Score +128

Mason Greenwood (OM) has found the net in seven of his past ten games on home soil. He looks like a value bet to find the net and you’re able to back this Anytime Goalscorer pick at odds of +128.

Latest Mason Greenwood Player Prop Odds

Goalscorer

Anytime

+128

First

+360

Shots On Target

Over 1.5

+120

Under 1.5

-189

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Corners Prediction

Ajax Over 2.5 Corners -156

The 2.5 corners line has been covered by Ajax in their past ten games, while Marseille have conceded 5.20 corners on average in their last 5 matches. If you agree with our verdict that the Ajax Team Corners line is too low, go for odds of -156 that they go over.

Champions League & League Games

League Games

Last 10 Total For Against

Last 10 at Home Total For Against

Last 10 Away Total For Against

Marseille

Total

10.10 6.30 3.80

Home

8.70 6.60 2.10

Away

10.40 6.50 3.90

Ajax

Total

11.00 5.90 5.10

Home

10.40 6.60 3.80

Away

9.40 5.50 3.90

Latest Corner Odds

Total Corners

Over 9.5

-111

Under 9.5

-128

Marseille Corners

Over 6.5

-108

Under 6.5

-132

Ajax Corners

Over 2.5

-141

Under 2.5

-100

Most Corners

1

-556

X

+900

2

+510

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Marseille vs Ajax Odds

The odds are updated on a frequent basis. You might therefore find that they are different to the ones listed for the above betting predictions.

Bookies Giving Marseille Plenty of Respect

Marseille are the -192 favourites on the 1x2 betting. That implies a 66% chance of triumphing in this Champions League encounter according to the latest odds. Ajax are trading at a bigger price than their opponents and the outsiders can be backed at +475.

There’s sometimes a case for betting on the Half-Time Result market, with Marseille available at -100 and Ajax at +410. The third option is the draw which is priced at +163.

If you’re anticipating a high-scoring contest, Over 2.5 Goals has the shortest odds. Both Teams to Score is one of the top markets and the BTTS Yes option can be wagered at -152.

You can find hundreds of markets for every Champions League game, with the best betting sites creating lots of different options. Check out the pre-game and In-Play selections before placing your football bets.

Full-Time Result

1

-192

X

+360

2

+475

Half-Time Result

1

-100

X

+163

2

+410

Double Chance

1X

-714

12

-526

X2

+145

Draw No Bet

1

-500

2

+310

Asian Handicap

1 Hcp -1

-123

2 Hcp +1

-102

Total Goals

Under 2.5

+148

Over 2.5

-185

Both Teams to Score

Yes

-152

No

+116

Mason Greenwood Favourite to Score the First Goal

You will find favourite Mason Greenwood at +360 to be First Goalscorer and there’s also the chance to get +128 that he finds the net any time.

Mason Greenwood (OM)

First

+128

Anytime

+360

Igor Paixão (OM)

First

+155

Anytime

+400

Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (OM)

First

+170

Anytime

+450

Amine Gouiri (OM)

First

+205

Anytime

+525

Robinio Vaz (OM)

First

+245

Anytime

+600

Wout Weghorst (Ajax)

First

+290

Anytime

+650

Matt O'Riley (OM)

First

+290

Anytime

+750

Oliver Edvardsen (Ajax)

First

+370

Anytime

+950

Kasper Dolberg (Ajax)

First

+380

Anytime

+900

Nadir Bilal (OM)

First

+410

Anytime

+1100

Darryl Bakola (OM)

First

+430

Anytime

+1000

Mika Godts (Ajax)

First

+480

Anytime

+1200

Timothy Weah (OM)

First

+500

Anytime

+1200

Kenneth Taylor (Ajax)

First

+525

Anytime

+1300

Oscar Gloukh (Ajax)

First

+525

Anytime

+1300

Angel Gomes (OM)

First

+550

Anytime

+1500

Raul Moro (Ajax)

First

+575

Anytime

+1400

Steven Berghuis (Ajax)

First

+575

Anytime

+1400

Arthur Vermeeren (OM)

First

+600

Anytime

+1600

Davy Klaassen (Ajax)

First

+650

Anytime

+1600

Pierre-Emile Højbjerg (OM)

First

+800

Anytime

+2200

Ulisses Garcia (OM)

First

+900

Anytime

+2200

Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (OM)

Over 0.5

-244

Under 0.5

+145

Amine Gouiri (OM)

Over 0.5

-179

Under 0.5

+110

Robinio Vaz (OM)

Over 0.5

-143

Under 0.5

-111

Matt O'Riley (OM)

Over 0.5

-120

Under 0.5

-132

Wout Weghorst (Ajax)

Over 0.5

-108

Under 0.5

-147

Oscar Gloukh (Ajax)

Over 0.5

+112

Under 0.5

-185

Mason Greenwood (OM)

Over 1.5

+120

Under 1.5

-189

Oliver Edvardsen (Ajax)

Over 0.5

+120

Under 0.5

-200

Kasper Dolberg (Ajax)

Over 0.5

+145

Under 0.5

-233

Nadir Bilal (OM)

Over 0.5

+155

Under 0.5

-250

Igor Paixão (OM)

Over 1.5

+160

Under 1.5

-263

Mika Godts (Ajax)

Over 0.5

+160

Under 0.5

-263

Darryl Bakola (OM)

Over 0.5

+170

Under 0.5

-286

Timothy Weah (OM)

Over 0.5

+175

Under 0.5

-294

Kenneth Taylor (Ajax)

Over 0.5

+195

Under 0.5

-333

Raul Moro (Ajax)

Over 0.5

+205

Under 0.5

-357

Steven Berghuis (Ajax)

Over 0.5

+205

Under 0.5

-357

Angel Gomes (OM)

Over 0.5

+225

Under 0.5

-417

Davy Klaassen (Ajax)

Over 0.5

+240

Under 0.5

-455

Arthur Vermeeren (OM)

Over 0.5

+250

Under 0.5

-476

Pierre-Emile Højbjerg (OM)

Over 0.5

+280

Under 0.5

-526

Latest Champions League and domestic league stats. Full Time Result, Goals, Corners and Possession.

Marseille Stats

Ajax Stats

Full-Time Result

• 7 wins, 2 defeats and 1 draw in the previous 10 matches
• 9 wins and 1 defeat in the previous 10 home matches

Full-Time Result

• 5 wins, 1 defeat and 4 draws in the previous 10 matches
• 5 wins, 1 defeat and 4 draws in the previous 10 away matches

Goals

• An average of 2.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded in the previous 10 matches
• An average of 3.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded in the previous 10 home matches
• An average of 3.40 goals per game in the previous 10 matches
• An average of 4.30 goals per game in the previous 10 home matches
• BTTS Yes in 6 of the previous 10 matches
• BTTS Yes in 6 of the previous 10 home matches
• Over 2.5 Goals in 6 of the previous 10 matches
• Over 2.5 Goals in 7 of the previous 10 home matches

Goals

• An average of 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded in the previous 10 matches
• An average of 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded in the previous 10 away matches
• An average of 3.00 goals per game in the previous 10 matches
• An average of 2.70 goals per game in the previous 10 away matches
• BTTS Yes in 6 of the previous 10 matches
• BTTS Yes in 5 of the previous 10 away matches
• Over 2.5 Goals in 6 of the previous 10 matches
• Over 2.5 Goals in 5 of the previous 10 away matches

Corners

• An average of 6.30 corners awarded and 3.20 corners conceded in the last 10 matches
• An average of 6.60 corners awarded and 2.10 corners against in the last 10 home matches
• An average of 9.50 corners awarded in the last 10 matches
• An average of 8.70 corners awarded in the last 10 home matches
• Had the most corners in 7 and least corners in 2 of the last 10 matches
• Had the most corners in 9 and least corners in 0 of the last 10 home matches

Corners

• An average of 6.40 corners awarded and 4.70 corners conceded in the last 10 matches
• An average of 5.50 corners awarded and 3.90 corners against in the last 10 away matches
• An average of 11.10 corners awarded in the last 10 matches
• An average of 9.40 corners awarded in the last 10 away matches
• Had the most corners in 5 and least corners in 5 of the last 10 matches
• Had the most corners in 4 and least corners in 5 of the last 10 away matches

Possession

• An average of 56.80% possession in the last 10 matches
• An average of 63.80% possession in the last 10 home matches
• Most possession in 8 of the last 10 matches
• Most possession in 9 of the last 10 home matches

Possession

• An average of 57.10% possession in the last 10 matches
• An average of 54.60% possession in the last 10 away matches
• Most possession in 9 of the last 10 matches
• Most possession in 7 of the last 10 away matches

Marseille vs Ajax Lineups & Team News

Always review the Marseille vs Ajax team news before locking in your bets. We’ll provide full coverage of predicted and confirmed Champions League lineups alongside the newest injury information.