Moldova vs Italy Prediction, Betting Tips, Lineups & Odds | 13 Nov 2025

World Cup qualifying Betting Preview: Moldova vs Italy

Bottom-of-the-table Moldova take on second-placed Italy at Zimbru Stadium, with kick-off set for 14:45 on Thursday 13 November. Our Group I betting preview features expert World Cup qualifying predictions, betting tips, the latest odds, H2H stats and team news.

Strong Case for Moldova to Cover the Line

Moldova +3 stand out as a good bet at odds of -106. We are happy to take the home team with a big Asian Handicap and think that they might be able to perform above expectation levels against Italy.

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Italy 2-0 Victory in Previous H2H Meeting

Moldova played out a 1-1 World Cup qualifying draw in their last game. This was away from home at A Le Coq Arena against Estonia. The Tricolours enjoyed just 39% possession and had four shots on target, while Stefan Bodisteanu was the goalscorer.

Italy claimed a home victory in their previous game. A 3-0 World Cup qualifying win occurred against Israel at Stadio Friuli. Gennaro Gattuso's team enjoyed 53% possession and six shots on goal, while Mateo Retegui found the net twice and Gianluca Mancini bagged one.

Head-to-Head Statistics

Italy overcame Moldova at home when the teams last played. It was a 2-0 scoreline at Stadio Giglio.

Europe World Cup Qualification		G	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	GD	P
2	Italy	6	5	0	1	18	8	10	18:8	15
5	Moldova	6	0	1	5	4	26	-22	4:26	1

View Full Table

3 wins, 6 losses and 1 draw, averaging 0.9 goals from 9.3 attempts and 3.8 shots on goal. Moldova have had 43.3% possession and 3.7 corners per match. On average, the opposition have scored 2.7 goals from 14.1 attempts and 6.0 shots on goal, while earning 3.7 corners.

Ion Nicolaescu and Mihail Caimacov are the top scorers with 2 goals each, while Stefan Bodisteanu has 1. Virgiliu Postolachi, Maxim Cojocaru and Mihail Caimacov are the leading assists makers with 1.

Italy have won 6, lost 3 and drawn 1, with an average of 2.4 goals from 16.3 attempts and 5.7 shots on goal. Gli Azzurri average 55.5% possession, 524.8 passes, 5.1 corners awarded and 4.6 corners against them, while conceding 1.6 goals from 9.8 attempts and 4.1 shots on goal.

Moise Kean is top of the team’s scoring charts with 6, Mateo Retegui is on 5 and Giacomo Raspadori on 4. Mateo Retegui has been the top assist maker on 4, with Gianluigi Donnarumma notching 4 clean sheets in the last 10 games.

Moldova vs Italy Prediction & Betting Tips

Discover our expert Moldova vs Italy betting tips, featuring a match prediction, correct score suggestion, corners market outlook and bet builder advice. Scroll down for full analysis.

Match Prediction

Moldova +3 at -106 on the Asian Handicap is our prediction. We think that the hosts can perform above expectation levels in this World Cup qualifying match, with the betting sites giving them a nice headstart.

It's important to understand the players who are unavailable for the upcoming World Cup qualifying action and the respective form of each team. If you want stats, you have come to the right place and they form the basis of our football predictions.

Key Moldova vs Italy stats:

• The +3 line has been covered by Moldova in 8 of their last 10 games at home.
• The +3 line has been covered by Moldova in 16 of their last 20 games.
• The -3 line hasn’t been covered by Italy in 20 consecutive games on the road.

Moldova +3 Probability

The best betting sites make it a 51.5% chance that our pick is settled as a winner. Taking all factors into consideration, our tipsters think there’s a stronger chance of success and estimate the probability to be closer to 60%. This is why we regard this as a value wager.

There are several alternatives to the Asian Handicap and we particularly like the Winning Margin market. It’s great whether you’re expecting things to be close or comprehensive.

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Our Match Prediction

Moldova Asian Hcp +3 @ -106 Bet Now

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Correct Score Prediction

Moldova 0 - 2 Italy

We’ve got a correct score prediction which involves Italy winning 2-0. Odds of +480 look appealing and we should get a run for our money here.

Corners Prediction

Italy Under 7.5 Corners -137

Italy have been awarded an average of 3.80 corners in the past 5 away games, while the corner count against Moldova has been less than 7.5 in the last ten matches. We’re happy to back the -137 when it comes to Italy falling short of the Team Corners line which looks generous.

Competitive Games

League Games

Last 10 Total For Against

Last 10 at Home Total For Against

Last 10 Away Total For Against

Moldova

Total

7.40 3.70 3.70

Home

8.40 4.70 3.70

Away

8.90 3.70 5.20

Italy

Total

9.70 5.10 4.60

Home

11.00 6.70 4.30

Away

8.40 4.50 3.90

Latest Corner Odds

Total Corners

Over 9.5

+102

Under 9.5

-143

Moldova Corners

Over 1.5

-120

Under 1.5

-120

Italy Corners

Over 6.5

-150

Under 6.5

+110

Most Corners

1

+1400

X

+1500

2

-2500

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Moldova vs Italy Odds

The odds are updated on a frequent basis. You might therefore find that they are different to the ones listed for the above betting predictions.

Italy Huge Favourites With the Bookies

Italy are trading as the gigantic -3333 favourites for this World Cup qualifying encounter. This means the bookmakers give them a 97% probability of winning. If you want to back the rank outsider, Moldova are available at +3500.

If you want to back the favourites to be ahead by the break, then Italy are -385 on the Half-Time Result market. Alternatively, Moldova are +2000 and the draw is priced at +330.

The Total Goals odds suggest that Over 2.5 is a strong probability in this contest. If you think this points to a low-scoring or one-sided affair, then BTTS No could be an option at -417.

The top football betting sites definitely give customers lots of choice. When it comes to World Cup qualifying games, choose from hundreds of markets until you find the most attractive odds.

Full-Time Result

1

+3500

X

+1300

2

-3333

Half-Time Result

1

+2000

X

+330

2

-385

Draw No Bet

1

+3400

2

-10000

Asian Handicap

1 Hcp +3

-106

2 Hcp -3

-116

Total Goals

Under 2.5

+240

Over 2.5

-333

Both Teams to Score

Yes

+265

No

-417

Mateo Retegui Favourite to Be First Goalscorer

You will find Mateo Retegui at +190 to be First Goalscorer which makes him the favourite. There’s the chance to get -250 that he finds the net at anytime.

Mateo Retegui (Italy)

First

-250

Anytime

+190

Giacomo Raspadori (Italy)

First

-100

Anytime

+330

Riccardo Orsolini (Italy)

First

+110

Anytime

+390

Nicolò Barella (Italy)

First

+275

Anytime

+850

Sandro Tonali (Italy)

First

+340

Anytime

+1050

Andrea Cambiaso (Italy)

First

+390

Anytime

+1200

Manuel Locatelli (Italy)

First

+420

Anytime

+1300

Federico Dimarco (Italy)

First

+425

Anytime

+1200

Riccardo Calafiori (Italy)

First

+525

Anytime

+1600

Gianluca Mancini (Italy)

First

+650

Anytime

+2200

Mateo Retegui (Italy)

Over 1.5

-217

Under 1.5

+125

Giacomo Raspadori (Italy)

Over 1.5

+120

Under 1.5

-208

Nicolò Barella (Italy)

Over 0.5

+123

Under 0.5

-217

Sandro Tonali (Italy)

Over 0.5

+128

Under 0.5

-227

Riccardo Orsolini (Italy)

Over 1.5

+155

Under 1.5

-286

Federico Dimarco (Italy)

Over 0.5

+163

Under 0.5

-313

Andrea Cambiaso (Italy)

Over 0.5

+190

Under 0.5

-357

Manuel Locatelli (Italy)

Over 0.5

+230

Under 0.5

-455

Riccardo Calafiori (Italy)

Over 0.5

+270

Under 0.5

-625

Gianluca Mancini (Italy)

Over 0.5

+350

Under 0.5

-1000

Latest competitive match stats. Full Time Result and Goals.

Moldova Stats

Italy Stats

Full-Time Result

• 3 wins, 6 defeats and 1 draw in the previous 10 matches
• 4 wins, 3 defeats and 3 draws in the previous 10 home matches

Full-Time Result

• 6 wins, 3 defeats and 1 draw in the previous 10 matches
• 5 wins, 3 defeats and 2 draws in the previous 10 away matches

Goals

• An average of 0.90 goals scored and 2.70 conceded in the previous 10 matches
• An average of 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded in the previous 10 home matches
• An average of 3.60 goals per game in the previous 10 matches
• An average of 2.90 goals per game in the previous 10 home matches
• BTTS Yes in 3 of the previous 10 matches
• BTTS Yes in 4 of the previous 10 home matches
• Over 2.5 Goals in 4 of the previous 10 matches
• Over 2.5 Goals in 4 of the previous 10 home matches

Goals

• An average of 2.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded in the previous 10 matches
• An average of 1.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded in the previous 10 away matches
• An average of 4.00 goals per game in the previous 10 matches
• An average of 3.50 goals per game in the previous 10 away matches
• BTTS Yes in 5 of the previous 10 matches
• BTTS Yes in 6 of the previous 10 away matches
• Over 2.5 Goals in 8 of the previous 10 matches
• Over 2.5 Goals in 6 of the previous 10 away matches

Corners

• An average of 3.70 corners awarded and 3.70 corners conceded in the last 10 matches
• An average of 4.70 corners awarded and 3.70 corners against in the last 10 home matches
• An average of 7.40 corners awarded in the last 10 matches
• An average of 8.40 corners awarded in the last 10 home matches
• Had the most corners in 5 and least corners in 4 of the last 10 matches
• Had the most corners in 5 and least corners in 4 of the last 10 home matches

Corners

• An average of 5.10 corners awarded and 4.60 corners conceded in the last 10 matches
• An average of 4.50 corners awarded and 3.90 corners against in the last 10 away matches
• An average of 9.70 corners awarded in the last 10 matches
• An average of 8.40 corners awarded in the last 10 away matches
• Had the most corners in 4 and least corners in 4 of the last 10 matches
• Had the most corners in 4 and least corners in 5 of the last 10 away matches

Possession

• An average of 43.30% possession in the last 10 matches
• An average of 45.80% possession in the last 10 home matches
• Most possession in 3 of the last 10 matches
• Most possession in 4 of the last 10 home matches

Possession

• An average of 55.50% possession in the last 10 matches
• An average of 51.30% possession in the last 10 away matches
• Most possession in 8 of the last 10 matches
• Most possession in 5 of the last 10 away matches

Moldova vs Italy Lineups & Team News

Double-check the Moldova vs Italy team news before placing your bets. Get the confirmed World Cup qualifying lineups and the most recent injury news from us.