Moldova vs Italy Prediction, Betting Tips, Lineups & Odds | 13 Nov 2025

World Cup qualifying Betting Preview: Moldova vs Italy

Bottom-of-the-table Moldova take on second-placed Italy at Zimbru Stadium, with kick-off set for 14:45 on Thursday 13 November. Our Group I betting preview features expert World Cup qualifying predictions, betting tips, the latest odds, H2H stats and team news.

Moldova +3 stand out as a good bet at odds of -106. We are happy to take the home team with a big Asian Handicap and think that Tricolorii might be able to perform above expectation levels against Italy.

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Moldova played out a 1-1 World Cup qualifying draw in their last game. This was away from home at A Le Coq Arena against Estonia. Tricolorii enjoyed just 39% possession and had four shots on target, while Stefan Bodisteanu was the goalscorer.

Italy claimed a home victory in their previous game. A 3-0 World Cup qualifying win occurred against Israel at Stadio Friuli. Gennaro Gattuso's team enjoyed 53% possession and six shots on goal, while Mateo Retegui found the net twice and Gianluca Mancini bagged one.

Head-to-Head Statistics

Italy overcame Moldova at home when the teams last played. It was a 2-0 scoreline at Stadio Giglio.

Europe World Cup Qualification		G	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	GD	P
2	Italy	8	6	0	2	21	12	9	21:12	18
5	Moldova	8	0	1	7	5	32	-27	5:32	1

View Full Table

3 wins, 6 losses and 1 draw, averaging 0.9 goals from 9.3 attempts and 3.8 shots on goal. Moldova have had 43.3% possession and 3.7 corners per match. On average, the opposition have scored 2.7 goals from 14.1 attempts and 6.0 shots on goal, while earning 3.7 corners.

Ion Nicolaescu and Mihail Caimacov are the top scorers with 2 goals each, while Stefan Bodisteanu has 1. Virgiliu Postolachi, Maxim Cojocaru and Mihail Caimacov are the leading assists makers with 1.

Italy have won 6, lost 3 and drawn 1, with an average of 2.4 goals from 16.3 attempts and 5.7 shots on goal. Gli Azzurri average 55.5% possession, 524.8 passes, 5.1 corners awarded and 4.6 corners against them, while conceding 1.6 goals from 9.8 attempts and 4.1 shots on goal.

Moise Kean is top of the team’s scoring charts with 6, Mateo Retegui is on 5 and Giacomo Raspadori on 4. Mateo Retegui has been the top assist maker on 4, with Gianluigi Donnarumma notching 4 clean sheets in the last 10 games.

Confirmed Lineups

Moldova confirmed lineup (5-3-2): Andriy Kozhukhar (GK), Mihail Stefan, Artur Craciun, Daniel Dumbravanu, Ioan-Calin Revenco, Oleg Reabciuk, Sergiu Perciun, Vadim Rata, Artur Ionita, Ion Nicolaescu, Virgiliu Postolachi.

Italy confirmed lineup (4-1-2-3): Guglielmo Vicario (GK), Raoul Bellanova, Gianluca Mancini, Alessandro Buongiorno, Andrea Cambiaso, Bryan Cristante, Sandro Tonali, Giacomo Raspadori, Riccardo Orsolini, Gianluca Scamacca, Mattia Zaccagni.

Moldova vs Italy Prediction & Betting Tips

Our Moldova vs Italy tips include the main match prediction, a correct score forecast, a corners recommendation, bet builder advice and top player prop picks. Each section below offers expert insight into the key betting angles.

Match Prediction

Moldova +3 at -106 on the Asian Handicap is our prediction. We think that the hosts can perform above expectation levels in this World Cup qualifying match, with the betting sites giving them a nice headstart.

It's important to understand the players who are unavailable for the upcoming World Cup qualifying action and the respective form of each team. If you want stats, you have come to the right place and they form the basis of our football predictions.

Key Moldova vs Italy stats:

• The +3 line has been covered by Moldova in 8 of their last 10 games at home.
• The +3 line has been covered by Moldova in 16 of their last 20 games.
• The -3 line hasn’t been covered by Italy in 20 consecutive games on the road.

The best betting sites make it a 51.5% chance that our pick is settled as a winner. Taking all factors into consideration, our tipsters think there’s a stronger chance of success and estimate the probability to be closer to 60%. This is why we regard this as a value wager.

There are several alternatives to the Asian Handicap and we particularly like the Winning Margin market. It’s great whether you’re expecting things to be close or comprehensive.

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Our Match Prediction

Moldova Asian Hcp +3 @ -106 Bet Now

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Disclosure: This preview contains affiliate links; we may earn a commission at no extra cost to you. T&Cs apply. We only recommend licensed and regulated operators. See our Editorial Policy. Pick odds and lines reflect the price available at the time of publication (21:08, 11 November 2025). Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Correct Score Prediction

Moldova 0 - 2 Italy

We’ve got a correct score prediction which involves Italy winning 2-0. Odds of +500 look appealing and we should get a run for our money here.

Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: Sandro Tonali Over 0.5 Shots On Target -143

Sandro Tonali (Italy) has recorded one or more shots on goal in four of his past five games. He certainly looks capable of covering the line when it comes to this player prop and odds of -143 are currently on offer.

Latest Sandro Tonali Player Prop Odds

Goalscorer

Anytime

+225

First

+650

Shots On Target

Over 0.5

-154

Under 0.5

-112

Shots

Over 2.5

+105

Under 2.5

-

---

Andrea Cambiaso to Score +425

Andrea Cambiaso (Italy) has netted two goals in his past seven games. We’re content to land the +425 for this Anytime Goalscorer bet as there’s value in the odds that he features on the scoresheet.

Latest Andrea Cambiaso Player Prop Odds

Goalscorer

Anytime

+430

First

+1300

Shots On Target

Over 0.5

+180

Under 0.5

-333

Shots

Over 1.5

-105

Under 1.5

-

Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Corners Prediction

Italy Under 7.5 Corners -137

Italy have been awarded an average of 3.80 corners in the past 5 away games, while the corner count against Moldova has been less than 7.5 in the last ten matches. We’re happy to back the -137 when it comes to Italy falling short of the Team Corners line which looks generous.

Competitive Games

League Games

Last 10 Total For Against

Last 10 at Home Total For Against

Last 10 Away Total For Against

Moldova

Total

7.40 3.70 3.70

Home

8.40 4.70 3.70

Away

8.90 3.70 5.20

Italy

Total

9.70 5.10 4.60

Home

11.00 6.70 4.30

Away

8.40 4.50 3.90

Latest Corner Odds

Total Corners

Over 9.5

-100

Under 9.5

-141

Moldova Corners

Over 1.5

-167

Under 1.5

+110

Italy Corners

Over 7.5

+104

Under 7.5

-156

Most Corners

1

+1050

X

+1300

2

-2000

Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Moldova vs Italy Odds

The odds and lines below are updated regularly and may differ from the prices shown in our picks, which are captured at the time of publication.

Italy are trading as the gigantic -1000 favourites for this World Cup qualifying encounter. This means the bookmakers give them a 91% probability of winning. If you want to back the rank outsider, Moldova are available at +2200.

If you want to back the favourites to be ahead by the break, then Italy are -250 on the Half-Time Result market. Alternatively, Moldova are +1200 and the draw is priced at +255.

The Total Goals odds suggest that Over 2.5 is a strong probability in this contest. If you think this points to a low-scoring or one-sided affair, then BTTS No could be an option at -213.

The top football betting sites definitely give customers lots of choice. When it comes to World Cup qualifying games, choose from hundreds of markets until you find the most attractive odds.

Full-Time Result

1

+2200

X

+850

2

-1000

Half-Time Result

1

+1200

X

+255

2

-250

Double Chance

1X

+550

12

-2500

X2

--100

Draw No Bet

1

+1400

2

-5000

Asian Handicap

1 Hcp +2.5

-115

2 Hcp -2.5

-108

Total Goals

Under 2.5

+195

Over 2.5

-263

Both Teams to Score

Yes

+150

No

-213

You will find Mateo Retegui at +165 to be First Goalscorer which makes him the favourite. There’s the chance to get -278 that he finds the net at anytime.

Mateo Retegui (Italy)

First

-278

Anytime

+165

Giacomo Raspadori (Italy)

First

+123

Anytime

+360

Riccardo Orsolini (Italy)

First

+132

Anytime

+430

Sandro Tonali (Italy)

First

+225

Anytime

+650

Federico Dimarco (Italy)

First

+300

Anytime

+850

Nicolò Barella (Italy)

First

+310

Anytime

+900

Andrea Cambiaso (Italy)

First

+430

Anytime

+1300

Manuel Locatelli (Italy)

First

+450

Anytime

+1300

Riccardo Calafiori (Italy)

First

+600

Anytime

+1800

Virgiliu Postolachi (Moldova)

First

+600

Anytime

+1800

Gianluca Mancini (Italy)

First

+700

Anytime

+2200

Giovanni Di Lorenzo (Italy)

First

+700

Anytime

+2200

Riccardo Orsolini (Italy)

Over 0.5

-286

Under 0.5

+160

Sandro Tonali (Italy)

Over 0.5

-154

Under 0.5

-112

Federico Dimarco (Italy)

Over 0.5

-102

Under 0.5

-172

Mateo Retegui (Italy)

Over 2.5

+123

Under 2.5

-213

Giacomo Raspadori (Italy)

Over 1.5

+123

Under 1.5

-213

Nicolò Barella (Italy)

Over 0.5

+123

Under 0.5

-208

Virgiliu Postolachi (Moldova)

Over 0.5

+170

Under 0.5

-333

Andrea Cambiaso (Italy)

Over 0.5

+180

Under 0.5

-333

Manuel Locatelli (Italy)

Over 0.5

+215

Under 0.5

-435

Riccardo Calafiori (Italy)

Over 0.5

+265

Under 0.5

-625

Gianluca Mancini (Italy)

Over 0.5

+350

Under 0.5

-1111

Giovanni Di Lorenzo (Italy)

Over 0.5

+400

Under 0.5

-1667

Mateo Retegui (Italy)

Over 5.5

-119

Under 5.5

-

Giacomo Raspadori (Italy)

Over 3.5

-110

Under 3.5

-

Riccardo Orsolini (Italy)

Over 3.5

+102

Under 3.5

-

Sandro Tonali (Italy)

Over 2.5

+105

Under 2.5

-

Federico Dimarco (Italy)

Over 1.5

-182

Under 1.5

-

Nicolò Barella (Italy)

Over 1.5

-115

Under 1.5

-

Andrea Cambiaso (Italy)

Over 1.5

-105

Under 1.5

-

Riccardo Calafiori (Italy)

Over 1.5

-130

Under 1.5

-

Virgiliu Postolachi (Moldova)

Over 1.5

+130

Under 1.5

-

Gianluca Mancini (Italy)

Over 0.5

+110

Under 0.5

-

Giovanni Di Lorenzo (Italy)

Over 0.5

+115

Under 0.5

-

Latest competitive match stats. Full Time Result and Goals.

Moldova Stats

Italy Stats

Full-Time Result

• 3 wins, 6 defeats and 1 draw in the previous 10 matches
• 4 wins, 3 defeats and 3 draws in the previous 10 home matches

Full-Time Result

• 6 wins, 3 defeats and 1 draw in the previous 10 matches
• 5 wins, 3 defeats and 2 draws in the previous 10 away matches

Goals

• An average of 0.90 goals scored and 2.70 conceded in the previous 10 matches
• An average of 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded in the previous 10 home matches
• An average of 3.60 goals per game in the previous 10 matches
• An average of 2.90 goals per game in the previous 10 home matches
• BTTS Yes in 3 of the previous 10 matches
• BTTS Yes in 4 of the previous 10 home matches
• Over 2.5 Goals in 4 of the previous 10 matches
• Over 2.5 Goals in 4 of the previous 10 home matches

Goals

• An average of 2.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded in the previous 10 matches
• An average of 1.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded in the previous 10 away matches
• An average of 4.00 goals per game in the previous 10 matches
• An average of 3.50 goals per game in the previous 10 away matches
• BTTS Yes in 5 of the previous 10 matches
• BTTS Yes in 6 of the previous 10 away matches
• Over 2.5 Goals in 8 of the previous 10 matches
• Over 2.5 Goals in 6 of the previous 10 away matches

Corners

• An average of 3.70 corners awarded and 3.70 corners conceded in the last 10 matches
• An average of 4.70 corners awarded and 3.70 corners against in the last 10 home matches
• An average of 7.40 corners awarded in the last 10 matches
• An average of 8.40 corners awarded in the last 10 home matches
• Had the most corners in 5 and least corners in 4 of the last 10 matches
• Had the most corners in 5 and least corners in 4 of the last 10 home matches

Corners

• An average of 5.10 corners awarded and 4.60 corners conceded in the last 10 matches
• An average of 4.50 corners awarded and 3.90 corners against in the last 10 away matches
• An average of 9.70 corners awarded in the last 10 matches
• An average of 8.40 corners awarded in the last 10 away matches
• Had the most corners in 4 and least corners in 4 of the last 10 matches
• Had the most corners in 4 and least corners in 5 of the last 10 away matches

Possession

• An average of 43.30% possession in the last 10 matches
• An average of 45.80% possession in the last 10 home matches
• Most possession in 3 of the last 10 matches
• Most possession in 4 of the last 10 home matches

Possession

• An average of 55.50% possession in the last 10 matches
• An average of 51.30% possession in the last 10 away matches
• Most possession in 8 of the last 10 matches
• Most possession in 5 of the last 10 away matches

Moldova vs Italy Lineups & Team News

Double-check the Moldova vs Italy team news before placing your bets. Get the confirmed World Cup qualifying lineups and the most recent injury news from us.

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