Rayo Vallecano vs Atlético Madrid Prediction, Betting Tips, Lineups & Odds | 15 Feb 2026

La Liga Betting Preview: Rayo Vallecano vs Atlético Madrid

Third-from-bottom Rayo Vallecano go head-to-head with third-placed Atlético Madrid at Estadio de Vallecas, with kick-off set for 10:15 on Sunday 15 February.

If you’re in agreement with our verdict that there won’t be lots of goals, back the -132 on the Under 2.5 selection when it comes to Total Goals. We are not anticipating that Rayo vs Atlético Madrid will produce too many fireworks.

Rayo Vallecano have been beaten in their last three league games. Away at Santiago Bernabéu, Real Madrid recently beat them 2-1. Los Franjirrojos had 43% possession and four shots on target, while Jorge de Frutos bagged the goal.

Atlético Madrid were defeated in their previous La Liga game, being turned over 1-0 at home to Real Betis at Riyadh Air Metropolitano. Diego Simeone's side dominated possession with 65% of the ball and managed five shots on goal.

On Thursday night, Atléti won 4-0 when hosting Barcelona in the first leg of the Copa del Rey semi-final.

Head-to-Head Statistics

Atléti have claimed consecutive victories over Rayo, achieving both wins when hosting at Riyadh Air Metropolitano by scorelines of 3-2 and 3-0. There have been two draws in the past 10 H2H games along with eight Atléti wins.

La Liga		G	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	GD	P
4	Atlético Madrid	29	17	6	6	49	28	21	49:28	57
14	Rayo Vallecano	29	7	11	11	28	35	-7	28:35	32

View Full Table

1 win, 5 losses and 4 draws, averaging 0.6 goals from 14.2 attempts and 4.8 shots on goal. Rayo have had 56.5% possession, 438.2 passes and 5.5 corners per match. On average, the opposition have scored 1.6 goals from 12.2 attempts and 4.3 shots on goal, while earning 4.8 corners.

Top goalscorer Jorge de Frutos has found the net 3 times, with Pathe Ciss, Isi Palazon and Nobel Mendy scoring 1 each. Leading assistor is Alvaro Garcia with 2, while goalie Augusto Batalla has recorded 2 clean sheets.

Atléti have 5 victories, 3 defeats and 2 draws, averaging 12.1 attempts, 4.9 shots on goal and 1.3 goals. Los Colchoneros average 53.5% possession, 515.6 passes, 6.2 corners in their favour and 4.4 corners against, while 0.7 goals have been conceded from 2.9 shots on goal and 11.1 attempts.

Alexander Soerloth is top of the team’s scoring charts with 5, while Antoine Griezmann and Koke have 2. Pablo Barrios, Giuliano Simeone and Giacomo Raspadori have all made 1 assists in the last 10 games, while Jan Oblak has 5 clean sheets.

Confirmed Lineups

Rayo Vallecano confirmed lineup (4-2-3-1): Augusto Batalla (GK), Andrei Ratiu, Florian Lejeune, Nobel Mendy, Alfonso Espino, Oscar Valentin, Gerard Gumbau, Ilias Akhomach, Isi Palazon, Fran Perez, Jorge de Frutos.

Atlético Madrid confirmed lineup (4-4-2): Jan Oblak (GK), Nahuel Molina, Jose Gimenez, Clement Lenglet, Matteo Ruggeri, Alejandro Baena, Rodrigo Mendoza, Johnny Cardoso, Nico Gonzalez, Thiago Almada, Alexander Soerloth.

Rayo Vallecano vs Atlético Madrid Prediction & Betting Tips

Get the full betting picture for Rayo Vallecano vs Atlético Madrid, including a key match prediction, our correct score selection, best corners advice, top player prop picks and a ready-made bet builder.

Match Prediction

We don’t think there will be too many goals in this La Liga encounter. The price of -132 for Under 2.5 really stands out and we can place this wager with a large slice of confidence.

Team news can have a significant impact on the betting odds, and we factor this in alongside recent form and the latest La Liga stats when making our football predictions.

Key Rayo Vallecano vs Atlético Madrid league stats:

• The 2.5 line hasn’t been covered in 8 of the last 10 Rayo games at home.
• The 2.5 line hasn’t been covered in 14 of the last 20 Rayo games at home.
• The 2.5 line hasn’t been covered in 8 of the last 10 Atléti games on the road.
• The 2.5 line hasn’t been covered in 4 of the last 5 Atléti games.
• The 2.5 line hasn’t been covered in the last 2 Atléti games.

If you go by the best football betting sites, our pick has a 56.8% chance of delivering a return. After careful examination, our experts calculate this probability to be somewhere between 60-65%. This wager can therefore be backed with confidence.

Those wanting to back Under 2.5 Goals but in search of a bigger price could go for the Bet Builder option. This involves adding picks from other markets in the hunt for a nice pay out.

Before you place your bets, explore our updated guide packed with the latest free bets and betting bonuses.

Our Match Prediction

Under 2.5 Goals @ -132 Bet Now

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Disclosure: This preview contains affiliate links; we may earn a commission at no extra cost to you. T&Cs apply. We only recommend licensed and regulated operators. See our Editorial Policy. Pick odds and lines reflect the price available at the time of publication (Feb 13, 19:09). Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Correct Score Prediction

Rayo 0 - 1 Atléti

There are betting odds of +550 that Atléti land a 1-0 victory. The correct score option is popular due to the potential return that can be achieved.

Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: Jorge de Frutos Over 1.5 Shots -167

Jorge de Frutos (Rayo) has finished with over 1.5 shots in three of his past five La Liga games. We’ve decided to back him on the Overs for Player Shots, with this line looking attractive at odds of -167.

Latest Jorge de Frutos Player Prop Odds

Goalscorer

Anytime

+350

First

+850

Shots

Over 1.5

-175

Under 1.5

-

---

Giuliano Simeone to Score +410

Giuliano Simeone (Atléti) has netted two goals in his past eight La Liga away games. We’re content to land the +410 for this Anytime Goalscorer bet as there’s value in the odds that he features on the scoresheet.

Latest Giuliano Simeone Player Prop Odds

Goalscorer

Anytime

+420

First

+1000

Shots

Over 0.5

-263

Under 0.5

-

Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Corners Prediction

Over 9.5 Corners -133

The 9.5 Total Corners line has been covered in five consecutive Atlético Madrid games, with the last ten Rayo Vallecano home matches averaging 11.60 corners. The Total Corners line could be on the low side based on the stats and -133 is available to back.

League Games

League Games

Last 10 Total For Against

Last 10 at Home Total For Against

Last 10 Away Total For Against

Rayo

Total

10.30 5.50 4.80

Home

11.60 6.90 4.70

Away

11.10 5.00 6.10

Atléti

Total

10.60 6.20 4.40

Home

12.30 8.40 3.90

Away

9.40 5.30 4.10

Latest Corner Odds

Total Corners

Over 9.5

-132

Under 9.5

-108

Rayo Corners

Over 4.5

-114

Under 4.5

-125

Atléti Corners

Over 4.5

-149

Under 4.5

+104

Most Corners

1

+120

X

+650

2

-115

Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Rayo Vallecano vs Atlético Madrid Odds

The odds and lines below are updated regularly and may differ from the prices shown in our picks, which are captured at the time of publication.

Atlético Madrid are available at -123 to come away with a triumph in this La Liga clash, meaning a 55% likelihood of winning according to the published betting odds. The market implies that Rayo Vallecano are the most unlikely to win at +335.

The Asian Handicap -0.5 market is the same as a Full-Time Result wager, with Atléti needing to win at -122 for your bet to be successful. Rayo +0.5 at -102 means you need them to triumph or the draw to happen.

The Total Goals odds suggest that Under 2.5 is the likelier outcome in this contest. If you think both teams will score, then BTTS Yes could appeal. Otherwise, you can back BTTS No as an alternative.

You can find hundreds of markets for every La Liga match, with the top betting apps creating lots of different options. Check out the pre-game and In-Play selections before placing your football bets.

Full-Time Result

1

+335

X

+255

2

-123

Half-Time Result

1

+350

X

+120

2

+143

Double Chance

1X

-108

12

-357

X2

-476

Draw No Bet

1

+200

2

-303

Asian Handicap

1 Hcp +0.5

-102

2 Hcp -0.5

-122

Total Goals

Under 2.5

-127

Over 2.5

-102

Both Teams to Score

Yes

-119

No

-110

Those interested in favourite Alexander Sørloth to find the net first can get +330, while the Anytime Goalscorer angle could hold more appeal and this is +140.

Alexander Sørloth (Atléti)

First

+140

Anytime

+330

Julián Álvarez (Atléti)

First

+140

Anytime

+350

Ademola Lookman (Atléti)

First

+200

Anytime

+525

Antoine Griezmann (Atléti)

First

+260

Anytime

+650

Álvaro García (Rayo)

First

+290

Anytime

+700

Álex Baena (Atléti)

First

+330

Anytime

+750

Jorge de Frutos (Rayo)

First

+350

Anytime

+850

Thiago Almada (Atléti)

First

+400

Anytime

+900

Nicolás González (Atléti)

First

+410

Anytime

+1000

Giuliano Simeone (Atléti)

First

+420

Anytime

+1000

Rodrigo Mendoza (Atléti)

First

+440

Anytime

+1050

Isi Palazón (Rayo)

First

+450

Anytime

+1150

Carlos Martín (Rayo)

First

+480

Anytime

+1200

Sergio Camello (Rayo)

First

+480

Anytime

+1150

Ilias Akhomach (Rayo)

First

+525

Anytime

+1300

Randy Nteka (Rayo)

First

+550

Anytime

+1300

Fran Pérez (Rayo)

First

+600

Anytime

+1400

Óscar Trejo (Rayo)

First

+800

Anytime

+2000

Pathé Ciss (Rayo)

First

+850

Anytime

+2200

Florian Lejeune (Rayo)

First

+850

Anytime

+2200

Gerard Gumbau (Rayo)

First

+850

Anytime

+2200

Obed Vargas (Atléti)

First

+850

Anytime

+2200

Matteo Ruggeri (Atléti)

First

+900

Anytime

+2200

David Hancko (Atléti)

First

+900

Anytime

+2200

Johnny Cardoso (Atléti)

First

+950

Anytime

+2200

Koke (Atléti)

First

+950

Anytime

+2200

Alexander Sørloth (Atléti)

Over 3.5

+125

Under 3.5

-

Julián Álvarez (Atléti)

Over 3.5

-111

Under 3.5

-

Ademola Lookman (Atléti)

Over 2.5

+115

Under 2.5

-

Álvaro García (Rayo)

Over 2.5

+118

Under 2.5

-

Fran Pérez (Rayo)

Over 1.5

+160

Under 1.5

-

Randy Nteka (Rayo)

Over 1.5

+120

Under 1.5

-

Ilias Akhomach (Rayo)

Over 1.5

-147

Under 1.5

-

Sergio Camello (Rayo)

Over 1.5

+108

Under 1.5

-

Carlos Martín (Rayo)

Over 1.5

+118

Under 1.5

-

Isi Palazón (Rayo)

Over 1.5

-119

Under 1.5

-

Rodrigo Mendoza (Atléti)

Over 1.5

+160

Under 1.5

-

Nicolás González (Atléti)

Over 1.5

+130

Under 1.5

-

Thiago Almada (Atléti)

Over 1.5

+145

Under 1.5

-

Jorge de Frutos (Rayo)

Over 1.5

-175

Under 1.5

-

Álex Baena (Atléti)

Over 1.5

-103

Under 1.5

-

Antoine Griezmann (Atléti)

Over 1.5

-161

Under 1.5

-

Giuliano Simeone (Atléti)

Over 0.5

-263

Under 0.5

-

Óscar Trejo (Rayo)

Over 0.5

-167

Under 0.5

-

Pathé Ciss (Rayo)

Over 0.5

-120

Under 0.5

-

Florian Lejeune (Rayo)

Over 0.5

-217

Under 0.5

-

Gerard Gumbau (Rayo)

Over 0.5

-159

Under 0.5

-

Obed Vargas (Atléti)

Over 0.5

+120

Under 0.5

-

David Hancko (Atléti)

Over 0.5

-106

Under 0.5

-

Rayo have managed five victories, four draws and one loss in the last 10 home matches, recording an average of 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.80.

Atlético Madrid have avoided defeat in their last three away matches. Diego Simeone's side have racked up five draws, three wins and two losses in the previous 10 away games, netting an average of 1.10 goals per match and conceding 0.80.

Rayo drew 1-1 with Atléti in their last Estadio de Vallecas meeting. The previous 5 H2H meetings at Estadio de Vallecas have featured four Atléti victories and one draw.

Last 10 League Games		W-D-L	G	GF	GA	O2.5	U2.5	B-Y	B-No
Rayo Vallecano Home Stats		5-4-1	2.20	1.40	0.80	4	6	5	5
Atlético Madrid Away Stats		3-5-2	1.90	1.10	0.80	2	8	5	5

• W-D-L = Wins-Draws-Losses
• G = Avg. Goals
• GF = Avg. Goals For
• GA = Avg. Goals Against
• O2.5 = Matches Over 2.5 Goals
• U2.5 = Matches Under 2.5 Goals
• B-Y = Matches BTTS Yes
• B-No = Matches BTTS No

Rayo Vallecano vs Atlético Madrid Lineups & Team News

Avoid surprises — review the Rayo vs Atléti team news before you bet. Get the latest predicted and confirmed La Liga lineups and injury news right here.

Rayo Vallecano Team Page Atlético Madrid Team Page

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