Real Madrid vs Villarreal Prediction, Betting Tips, Lineups & Odds | 04 Oct 2025

La Liga Betting Preview: Real Madrid vs Villarreal

Second-placed Real Madrid host third-placed Villarreal in this Spanish La Liga game at Santiago Bernabéu, with kick-off set for 15:00 on Saturday 4 October. Our betting preview features expert predictions, betting tips, the latest odds, H2H stats, team news and both predicted and confirmed lineups.

Villarreal +1.25 at odds of -109 allows us to split our money between +1 and +1.5. A win or draw against Real Madrid will result in a payout on the Asian Handicap, with a one goal defeat still seeing a return.

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Real Madrid have won three home games on the spin. On the road at Riyadh Air Metropolitano in their last game, they were beaten 5-2 by Atlético Madrid. Los Merengues boasted 63% possession and had two shots on target, while Kylian Mbappe and Arda Guler scored one goal apiece.

On Tuesday night, Real secured a 5-0 Champions League win away to Kairat Almaty.

Villarreal beat Athletic Club in their previous game, making it three straight victories. It was a 1-0 home win at Estadio de la Ceramica. Marcelino Garcia's team had 42% possession and totalled five shots on goal, with Alberto Moleiro scoring the winner in the 77th minute.

Three days ago, Villarreal hosted Juventus and drew 2-2 in the Champions League.

Head-to-Head Statistics

Real have won the last two encounters against Villarreal. A 2-1 away victory at Estadio de la Ceramica followed a 2-0 home win at Santiago Bernabéu. Real have five wins from the past 10 H2H games, with three draws and two Villarreal victories also happening.

La Liga		G	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	GD	P
1	Real Madrid	12	10	1	1	26	10	16	26:10	31
3	Villarreal	12	8	2	2	24	10	14	24:10	26

View Full Table

9 wins and 1 loss, averaging 2.2 goals from 7.2 shots on goal and 19.3 attempts. Real have had 62.1% possession, 584.3 passes and 8.2 corners per game. On average, their opponents have scored 0.9 goals from 2.6 shots on goal and 8.4 attempts, while being awarded 3.4 corners.

Top goalscorer is Kylian Mbappe on 12 goals, while Arda Guler and Vinicius Junior have both bagged 3. Vinicius Junior has the most assists with 5, while goalkeepers Thibaut Courtois and Andriy Lunin have recorded 5 clean sheets between them.

Villarreal have won 8, lost 1 and drawn 1, with an average of 14.7 attempts, 5.8 shots on goal and 2.3 goals. El Submarino Amarillo average 45.8% possession, 431.0 passes, 5.1 corners in their favour and 4.1 corners against, while 0.9 goals have been conceded from 4.2 shots on goal and 12.4 attempts.

The top scorers have been Tajon Buchanan and Pape Gueye on 4, with Nicolas Pepe getting 3. Yeremy Pino is top assists provider with 3, while Luiz Junior has kept 4 clean sheets in the previous 10 games.

Confirmed Lineups

Real Madrid confirmed lineup (4-2-3-1): Thibaut Courtois (GK), Federico Valverde, Eder Militao, Dean Huijsen, Alvaro Carreras, Aurelien Tchouameni, Dani Ceballos, Franco Mastantuono, Arda Guler, Vinicius Junior, Kylian Mbappe.

Villarreal confirmed lineup (4-4-2): Arnau Tenas (GK), Santiago Mourino, Rafa Marin, Renato Veiga, Sergi Cardona, Tajon Buchanan, Santi Comesana, Thomas Partey, Pape Gueye, Tani Oluwaseyi, Alberto Moleiro.

Real Madrid vs Villarreal Prediction & Betting Tips

Get the full betting picture for Real Madrid vs Villarreal, including a key match prediction, our correct score selection, best corners advice, top player prop picks and a ready-made bet builder.

Match Prediction

We’re feeling bullish about Villarreal for this La Liga fixture, especially as you can back the away team at a generous +1.25 line at a price of -109. Taking this Asian Handicap bet could see us enjoy a nice return.

We’re constantly keeping tabs on the La Liga team news. Along with the latest form, this helps us get the value every time. Our football experts are able to take a stats-led approach, with the key numbers providing a guide.

Key Real Madrid vs Villarreal league stats:

• The +1.25 line has been covered by Villarreal in 9 of their last 10 games.
• The +1.25 line has been covered by Villarreal in 18 of their last 20 games.
• The +1.25 line has been covered by Villarreal in 3 consecutive games.
• The -1.25 line hasn’t been covered by Real in 8 of their last 10 games at home.
• The -1.25 line hasn’t been covered by Real in 15 of their last 20 games.
• The -1.25 line hasn’t been covered by Real in 8 of their last 10 games against Villarreal.

The best football betting sites make it a 52.1% chance that our pick is settled as a winner. After careful examination, our team calculate this probability to be closer to 60%. That means we’re regarding it as a value wager.

There’s an opportunity to secure bigger odds and this can be achieved by moving the line. Squeeze more juice from your pick by taking an alternative betting view.

Before placing your bets, explore the latest betting offers. Our comprehensive guide features a wide range of welcome bonuses to choose from.

Our Match Prediction

Villarreal Asian Hcp +1.25 @ -109 Bet Now

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Correct Score Prediction

Real Madrid 1 - 1 Villarreal

Our prediction is a 1-1 draw which is available at odds of +850. Correct score betting allows us to bet at bigger odds and it’s also a fun type of wager.

Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: Nicolas Pepe Over 0.5 Shots On Target -105

Nicolas Pepe (Villarreal) has bagged at least one shot on goal in his past two La Liga games. We anticipate that these numbers will prove telling and that he will cover the Shots on Target line at odds of -105.

Latest Nicolas Pepe Player Prop Odds

Goalscorer

Anytime

+370

First

+1000

Shots On Target

Over 0.5

-104

Under 0.5

-152

Shots

Over 2.5

+123

Under 2.5

-

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Georges Mikautadze To Score +250

Georges Mikautadze (Villarreal) is available to be among the goals at +250. The odds that he will be an Anytime Goalscorer look attractive based on the evidence and we’ll plump for him to find the net.

Latest Georges Mikautadze Player Prop Odds

Goalscorer

Anytime

+260

First

+650

Shots On Target

Over 0.5

-167

Under 0.5

+105

Shots

Over 2.5

+123

Under 2.5

-

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Corners Prediction

Villarreal Under 3.5 Corners -125

4 of the past 5 Villarreal away games have seen them fall short of 3.5 corners, while Real Madrid have conceded an average of 2.40 corners in the past 5 home matches. If you agree with our verdict that the Villarreal Team Corners line is too big, go for odds of -125 that they go under.

League Games

League Games

Last 10 Total For Against

Last 10 at Home Total For Against

Last 10 Away Total For Against

Real Madrid

Total

11.60 8.20 3.40

Home

12.40 9.20 3.20

Away

10.50 4.50 6.00

Villarreal

Total

9.20 5.10 4.10

Home

10.40 6.30 4.10

Away

8.30 3.70 4.60

Latest Corner Odds

Total Corners

Over 9.5

-143

Under 9.5

+102

Real Madrid Corners

Over 6.5

-100

Under 6.5

-138

Villarreal Corners

Over 3.5

-120

Under 3.5

-120

Most Corners

1

-333

X

+800

2

+340

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Real Madrid vs Villarreal Odds

The odds are updated on a frequent basis. You might therefore find that they are different to the ones listed for the above betting predictions.

Real Madrid have been chalked up as the convincing -263 favourites for this La Liga encounter. This means that the bookmakers afford them a 72% probability of winning. Villarreal are trading at a much larger price than their opponents and the outsiders can be backed at +550.

Real can be backed at -125 on the Half-Time Result and you’ll need them to have their noses in front by the break. Villarreal can be chanced at +450 and the draw is +188.

You can find the shortest odds for Over 2.5 Goals, which means three goals or more being scored. BTTS wagering is popular and you can back Yes at -172 on the Both Teams to Score market.

There are hundreds of markets which means lots of options to find a football wager for the latest La Liga game. The leading betting apps leave no stone unturned to provide a first-class service.

Full-Time Result

1

-263

X

+440

2

+550

Half-Time Result

1

-125

X

+188

2

+450

Double Chance

1X

-909

12

-667

X2

+185

Draw No Bet

1

-625

2

+370

Asian Handicap

1 Hcp -1.5

-102

2 Hcp +1.5

-123

Total Goals

Under 2.5

+200

Over 2.5

-270

Both Teams to Score

Yes

-172

No

+128

Those interested in favourite Kylian Mbappé to find the net first can get +160, while the Anytime Goalscorer angle could hold more appeal and this is -278.

Kylian Mbappé (Real Madrid)

First

-278

Anytime

+160

Vinicius Junior (Real Madrid)

First

+188

Anytime

+550

Gonzalo García (Real Madrid)

First

+225

Anytime

+550

Georges Mikautadze (Villarreal)

First

+260

Anytime

+650

Endrick Moreira de Sousa (Real Madrid)

First

+260

Anytime

+650

Franco Mastantuono (Real Madrid)

First

+310

Anytime

+850

Rodrygo (Real Madrid)

First

+310

Anytime

+850

Arda Guler (Real Madrid)

First

+340

Anytime

+900

Gerard Moreno (Villarreal)

First

+370

Anytime

+1050

Nicolas Pepe (Villarreal)

First

+370

Anytime

+1000

Tani Oluwaseyi (Villarreal)

First

+390

Anytime

+1100

Manor Solomon (Villarreal)

First

+480

Anytime

+1200

Federico Valverde (Real Madrid)

First

+510

Anytime

+1500

Brahim Díaz (Real Madrid)

First

+525

Anytime

+1300

Tajon Buchanan (Villarreal)

First

+600

Anytime

+1700

Alberto Moleiro (Villarreal)

First

+650

Anytime

+1700

Dean Huijsen (Real Madrid)

First

+750

Anytime

+2200

Pape Gueye (Villarreal)

First

+850

Anytime

+2200

Vinicius Junior (Real Madrid)

Over 0.5

-227

Under 0.5

+140

Gonzalo García (Real Madrid)

Over 0.5

-172

Under 0.5

+107

Georges Mikautadze (Villarreal)

Over 0.5

-167

Under 0.5

+105

Arda Guler (Real Madrid)

Over 0.5

-130

Under 0.5

-120

Rodrygo (Real Madrid)

Over 0.5

-125

Under 0.5

-125

Endrick Moreira de Sousa (Real Madrid)

Over 0.5

-123

Under 0.5

-127

Franco Mastantuono (Real Madrid)

Over 0.5

-110

Under 0.5

-143

Nicolas Pepe (Villarreal)

Over 0.5

-104

Under 0.5

-152

Kylian Mbappé (Real Madrid)

Over 2.5

+110

Under 2.5

-175

Tani Oluwaseyi (Villarreal)

Over 0.5

+112

Under 0.5

-179

Gerard Moreno (Villarreal)

Over 0.5

+125

Under 0.5

-204

Manor Solomon (Villarreal)

Over 0.5

+150

Under 0.5

-244

Federico Valverde (Real Madrid)

Over 0.5

+165

Under 0.5

-270

Brahim Díaz (Real Madrid)

Over 0.5

+185

Under 0.5

-313

Tajon Buchanan (Villarreal)

Over 0.5

+185

Under 0.5

-313

Alberto Moleiro (Villarreal)

Over 0.5

+200

Under 0.5

-357

Pape Gueye (Villarreal)

Over 0.5

+250

Under 0.5

-476

Dean Huijsen (Real Madrid)

Over 0.5

+310

Under 0.5

-667

Kylian Mbappé (Real Madrid)

Over 4.5

-133

Under 4.5

-

Arda Guler (Real Madrid)

Over 3.5

+120

Under 3.5

-

Vinicius Junior (Real Madrid)

Over 2.5

-100

Under 2.5

-

Georges Mikautadze (Villarreal)

Over 2.5

+123

Under 2.5

-

Franco Mastantuono (Real Madrid)

Over 2.5

-127

Under 2.5

-

Rodrygo (Real Madrid)

Over 2.5

-143

Under 2.5

-

Nicolas Pepe (Villarreal)

Over 2.5

+123

Under 2.5

-

Gonzalo García (Real Madrid)

Over 1.5

-182

Under 1.5

-

Endrick Moreira de Sousa (Real Madrid)

Over 1.5

-154

Under 1.5

-

Gerard Moreno (Villarreal)

Over 1.5

+110

Under 1.5

-

Tani Oluwaseyi (Villarreal)

Over 1.5

-112

Under 1.5

-

Manor Solomon (Villarreal)

Over 1.5

+140

Under 1.5

-

Pape Gueye (Villarreal)

Over 1.5

+120

Under 1.5

-

Federico Valverde (Real Madrid)

Over 0.5

-244

Under 0.5

-

Tajon Buchanan (Villarreal)

Over 0.5

-208

Under 0.5

-

Alberto Moleiro (Villarreal)

Over 0.5

-227

Under 0.5

-

Real Madrid have racked up eight consecutive victories at Santiago Bernabéu. Los Merengues have racked up eight wins and two defeats in the last 10 home matches, recording an average of 1.70 goals per game and conceding 0.90.

Villarreal have collected six victories, three losses and one draw in the last 10 away games, recording an average of 1.20 goals per match and conceding 1.20.

The most recent Santiago Bernabéu meeting saw Real claim a 2-0 win over Villarreal. We’ve seen the past 5 H2H matches at Santiago Bernabéu involve three wins for Real, one draw and one victory for Villarreal.

Last 10 League Games		W-D-L	G	GF	GA	O2.5	U2.5	B-Y	B-No
Real Madrid Home Stats		8-0-2	2.60	1.70	0.90	6	4	6	4
Villarreal Away Stats		6-1-3	2.40	1.20	1.20	5	5	5	5

• W-D-L = Wins-Draws-Losses
• G = Avg. Goals
• GF = Avg. Goals For
• GA = Avg. Goals Against
• O2.5 = Matches Over 2.5 Goals
• U2.5 = Matches Under 2.5 Goals
• B-Y = Matches BTTS Yes
• B-No = Matches BTTS No

Real Madrid vs Villarreal Lineups & Team News

Avoid surprises — review the Real vs Villarreal team news before you bet. We’ll have the predicted and confirmed La Liga lineups for you plus all the latest on player injuries.

Real Madrid Team Page Villarreal Team Page

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