Real Madrid vs Villarreal Prediction, Betting Tips, Lineups & Odds | 04 Oct 2025

La Liga Betting Preview: Real Madrid vs Villarreal

Second-placed Real Madrid host third-placed Villarreal in this Spanish La Liga game at Santiago Bernabéu, with kick-off set for 15:00 on Saturday 4 October. Our betting preview features expert predictions, betting tips, the latest odds, H2H stats, team news and both predicted and confirmed lineups.

Will Villarreal Keep the Scoreline Respectable?

Villarreal +1.25 at odds of -109 allows us to split our money between +1 and +1.5. A win or draw against Real Madrid will result in a payout on the Asian Handicap, with a one goal defeat still seeing a return.

Backing our Asian Handicap tip? Don’t forget to check out the newest BetMGM promo code and our full site review to get the best value.

Teams’ Previous H2H Saw 2-1 Real Victory

Real Madrid have won three home games on the spin. On the road at Riyadh Air Metropolitano in their last game, they were beaten 5-2 by Atlético Madrid. Los Merengues boasted 63% possession and had two shots on target, while Kylian Mbappe and Arda Guler scored one goal apiece.

On Tuesday night, Real secured a 5-0 Champions League win away to Kairat Almaty.

Villarreal beat Athletic Club in their previous game, making it three straight victories. It was a 1-0 home win at Estadio de la Ceramica. Marcelino Garcia's team had 42% possession and totalled five shots on goal, with Alberto Moleiro scoring the winner in the 77th minute.

Three days ago, Villarreal hosted Juventus and drew 2-2 in the Champions League.

Head-to-Head Statistics

Real have won the last two encounters against Villarreal. A 2-1 away victory at Estadio de la Ceramica followed a 2-0 home win at Santiago Bernabéu. Real have five wins from the past 10 H2H games, with three draws and two Villarreal victories also happening.

La Liga		G	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	GD	P
2	Real Madrid	7	6	0	1	16	8	8	16:8	18
3	Villarreal	7	5	1	1	13	5	8	13:5	16

View Full Table

9 wins and 1 loss, averaging 2.2 goals from 7.2 shots on goal and 19.3 attempts. Real have had 62.1% possession, 584.3 passes and 8.2 corners per game. On average, their opponents have scored 0.9 goals from 2.6 shots on goal and 8.4 attempts, while being awarded 3.4 corners.

Top goalscorer is Kylian Mbappe on 12 goals, while Arda Guler and Vinicius Junior have both bagged 3. Vinicius Junior has the most assists with 5, while goalkeepers Thibaut Courtois and Andriy Lunin have recorded 5 clean sheets between them.

Villarreal have won 8, lost 1 and drawn 1, with an average of 14.7 attempts, 5.8 shots on goal and 2.3 goals. El Submarino Amarillo average 45.8% possession, 431.0 passes, 5.1 corners in their favour and 4.1 corners against, while 0.9 goals have been conceded from 4.2 shots on goal and 12.4 attempts.

The top scorers have been Tajon Buchanan and Pape Gueye on 4, with Nicolas Pepe getting 3. Yeremy Pino is top assists provider with 3, while Luiz Junior has kept 4 clean sheets in the previous 10 games.

Predicted & Confirmed Lineups

Real Madrid predicted lineup (4-2-3-1): Thibaut Courtois (GK), Éder Militão, Aurelien Tchouameni, Dean Donny Huijsen, Álvaro Fernández Carreras, Federico Valverde, Eduardo Camavinga, Arda Güler, Jude Bellingham, Vinícius Júnior, Kylian Mbappe.

Villarreal predicted lineup (4-4-2): Luiz Júnior (GK), Santiago Mouriño, Renato Veiga, Rafa Marín, Sergi Cardona, Ilias Akhomach, Thomas Partey, Pape Gueye, Alberto Moleiro, Nicolas Pepe, Georges Mikautadze.

Real Madrid vs Villarreal Prediction & Betting Tips

Get the full betting picture for Real Madrid vs Villarreal, including a key match prediction, our correct score selection, best corners advice, top player prop picks and a ready-made bet builder.

Match Prediction

We’re feeling bullish about Villarreal for this La Liga fixture, especially as you can back the away team at a generous +1.25 line at a price of -109. Taking this Asian Handicap bet could see us enjoy a nice return.

We’re constantly keeping tabs on the La Liga team news. Along with the latest form, this helps us get the value every time. Our football experts are able to take a stats-led approach, with the key numbers providing a guide.

Key Real Madrid vs Villarreal league stats:

• The +1.25 line has been covered by Villarreal in 9 of their last 10 games.
• The +1.25 line has been covered by Villarreal in 18 of their last 20 games.
• The +1.25 line has been covered by Villarreal in 3 consecutive games.
• The -1.25 line hasn’t been covered by Real in 8 of their last 10 games at home.
• The -1.25 line hasn’t been covered by Real in 15 of their last 20 games.
• The -1.25 line hasn’t been covered by Real in 8 of their last 10 games against Villarreal.

Villarreal +1.25 Probability

The best football betting sites make it a 52.1% chance that our pick is settled as a winner. After careful examination, our team calculate this probability to be closer to 60%. That means we’re regarding it as a value wager.

There’s an opportunity to secure bigger odds and this can be achieved by moving the line. Squeeze more juice from your pick by taking an alternative betting view.

Before placing your bets, explore the latest betting offers. Our comprehensive guide features a wide range of welcome bonuses to choose from.

Our Match Prediction

Villarreal Asian Hcp +1.25 @ -109 Watch Live Bet Now

BetMGM Promo Up To $1500 in Bonus Bets Get Bonus T&C apply. Gamble responsibly 18+

Gamble responsibly 18+. All odds are correct at time of publishing and are subject to change. To use the Bookmaker Live Streaming services you will need to be logged in and have a funded account or to have placed a bet in the last 24 hours. Geo-restrictions apply.

Correct Score Prediction

Real Madrid 1 - 1 Villarreal

Our prediction is a 1-1 draw which is available at odds of +800. Correct score betting allows us to bet at bigger odds and it’s also a fun type of wager.

Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: Nicolas Pepe Over 0.5 Shots On Target -105

Nicolas Pepe (Villarreal) has bagged at least one shot on goal in his past two La Liga games. We anticipate that these numbers will prove telling and that he will cover the Shots on Target line at odds of -105.

Latest Nicolas Pepe Player Prop Odds

Goalscorer

Anytime

+360

First

+1050

Shots On Target

Over 0.5

-105

Under 0.5

-147

T&C apply. Gamble responsibly 18+

---

Georges Mikautadze To Score +250

Georges Mikautadze (Villarreal) is available to be among the goals at +250. The odds that he will be an Anytime Goalscorer look attractive based on the evidence and we’ll plump for him to find the net.

Latest Georges Mikautadze Player Prop Odds

Goalscorer

Anytime

+250

First

+650

Shots On Target

Over 0.5

-172

Under 0.5

+108

T&C apply. Gamble responsibly 18+

Corners Prediction

Villarreal Under 3.5 Corners -125

4 of the past 5 Villarreal away games have seen them fall short of 3.5 corners, while Real Madrid have conceded an average of 2.40 corners in the past 5 home matches. If you agree with our verdict that the Villarreal Team Corners line is too big, go for odds of -125 that they go under.

League Games

League Games

Last 10 Total For Against

Last 10 at Home Total For Against

Last 10 Away Total For Against

Real Madrid

Total

11.60 8.20 3.40

Home

12.40 9.20 3.20

Away

10.50 4.50 6.00

Villarreal

Total

9.20 5.10 4.10

Home

10.40 6.30 4.10

Away

8.30 3.70 4.60

Latest Corner Odds

Total Corners

Over 9.5

-149

Under 9.5

+105

Real Madrid Corners

Over 6.5

+110

Under 6.5

-150

Villarreal Corners

Over 3.5

-110

Under 3.5

-125

Most Corners

1

-333

X

+800

2

+330

T&C apply. Gamble responsibly 18+

Real Madrid vs Villarreal Odds

The odds are updated on a frequent basis. You might therefore find that they are different to the ones listed for the above betting predictions.

Real Big Favourites to Win

For this La Liga clash, Real Madrid are the -238 favourites to triumph according to the latest Full-Time Result betting odds. This reflects that they have a 70% chance of winning. If you want to wager on the underdog, Villarreal have been priced up at +500.

Real can be backed at -118 on the Half-Time Result and you’ll need them to have their noses in front by the break. Villarreal can be chanced at +420 and the draw is +180.

You can find the shortest odds for Over 2.5 Goals, which means three goals or more being scored. BTTS wagering is popular and you can back Yes at -179 on the Both Teams to Score market.

There are hundreds of markets which means lots of options to find a football wager for the latest La Liga game. The leading betting apps leave no stone unturned to provide a first-class service.

Full-Time Result

1

-238

X

+420

2

+500

Half-Time Result

1

-118

X

+180

2

+420

Double Chance

1X

-833

12

-667

X2

+170

Draw No Bet

1

-556

2

+340

Asian Handicap

1 Hcp -1.25

-115

2 Hcp +1.25

-109

Total Goals

Under 2.5

+195

Over 2.5

-270

Both Teams to Score

Yes

-179

No

+133

Kylian Mbappé Shortest Odds for First Goalscorer

Those interested in favourite Kylian Mbappé to find the net first can get +190, while the Anytime Goalscorer angle could hold more appeal and this is -217.

Kylian Mbappé (Real Madrid)

First

-217

Anytime

+190

Vinicius Junior (Real Madrid)

First

+165

Anytime

+480

Gonzalo García (Real Madrid)

First

+205

Anytime

+525

Endrick Moreira de Sousa (Real Madrid)

First

+240

Anytime

+600

Georges Mikautadze (Villarreal)

First

+250

Anytime

+650

Franco Mastantuono (Real Madrid)

First

+280

Anytime

+750

Rodrygo (Real Madrid)

First

+290

Anytime

+800

Arda Guler (Real Madrid)

First

+330

Anytime

+850

Gerard Moreno (Villarreal)

First

+350

Anytime

+1000

Nicolas Pepe (Villarreal)

First

+360

Anytime

+1050

Tani Oluwaseyi (Villarreal)

First

+370

Anytime

+1000

Federico Valverde (Real Madrid)

First

+450

Anytime

+1300

Brahim Díaz (Real Madrid)

First

+480

Anytime

+1300

Manor Solomon (Villarreal)

First

+480

Anytime

+1300

Tajon Buchanan (Villarreal)

First

+575

Anytime

+1500

Alberto Moleiro (Villarreal)

First

+650

Anytime

+1600

Dean Huijsen (Real Madrid)

First

+750

Anytime

+2200

Pape Gueye (Villarreal)

First

+850

Anytime

+2200

Vinicius Junior (Real Madrid)

Over 0.5

-238

Under 0.5

+145

Gonzalo García (Real Madrid)

Over 0.5

-172

Under 0.5

+107

Georges Mikautadze (Villarreal)

Over 0.5

-172

Under 0.5

+108

Endrick Moreira de Sousa (Real Madrid)

Over 0.5

-143

Under 0.5

-110

Franco Mastantuono (Real Madrid)

Over 0.5

-111

Under 0.5

-143

Rodrygo (Real Madrid)

Over 0.5

-111

Under 0.5

-143

Arda Guler (Real Madrid)

Over 0.5

-108

Under 0.5

-143

Nicolas Pepe (Villarreal)

Over 0.5

-105

Under 0.5

-147

Gerard Moreno (Villarreal)

Over 0.5

+105

Under 0.5

-161

Tani Oluwaseyi (Villarreal)

Over 0.5

+108

Under 0.5

-172

Kylian Mbappé (Real Madrid)

Over 2.5

+115

Under 2.5

-182

Manor Solomon (Villarreal)

Over 0.5

+150

Under 0.5

-244

Federico Valverde (Real Madrid)

Over 0.5

+160

Under 0.5

-263

Tajon Buchanan (Villarreal)

Over 0.5

+180

Under 0.5

-303

Brahim Díaz (Real Madrid)

Over 0.5

+185

Under 0.5

-313

Alberto Moleiro (Villarreal)

Over 0.5

+200

Under 0.5

-345

Pape Gueye (Villarreal)

Over 0.5

+245

Under 0.5

-455

Dean Huijsen (Real Madrid)

Over 0.5

+310

Under 0.5

-667

Real Having a Purple Patch at Home

Real Madrid have racked up eight consecutive victories at Santiago Bernabéu. Los Merengues have racked up eight wins and two defeats in the last 10 home matches, recording an average of 1.70 goals per game and conceding 0.90.

Villarreal have collected six victories, three losses and one draw in the last 10 away games, recording an average of 1.20 goals per match and conceding 1.20.

The most recent Santiago Bernabéu meeting saw Real claim a 2-0 win over Villarreal. We’ve seen the past 5 H2H matches at Santiago Bernabéu involve three wins for Real, one draw and one victory for Villarreal.

Last 10 League Games		W-D-L	G	GF	GA	O2.5	U2.5	B-Y	B-No
Real Madrid Home Stats		8-0-2	2.60	1.70	0.90	6	4	6	4
Villarreal Away Stats		6-1-3	2.40	1.20	1.20	5	5	5	5

• W-D-L = Wins-Draws-Losses
• G = Avg. Goals
• GF = Avg. Goals For
• GA = Avg. Goals Against
• O2.5 = Matches Over 2.5 Goals
• U2.5 = Matches Under 2.5 Goals
• B-Y = Matches BTTS Yes
• B-No = Matches BTTS No

Enjoy La Liga live streaming on your mobile, laptop or tablet. It’s great to watch the latest games through your online sportsbook account, with customers able to access high definition streams.

You’re never short of viewing opportunities. Check out the daily list of sporting events that are being covered through this service.

Real Madrid vs Villarreal Live Streaming Watch Live Geo-restrictions apply. To use the services you need to be logged in, a funded account or to have placed a bet in the last 24 hours.

Real Madrid vs Villarreal Lineups & Team News

Avoid surprises — review the Real vs Villarreal team news before you bet. We’ll have the predicted and confirmed La Liga lineups for you plus all the latest on player injuries.

Real Madrid Team Page Villarreal Team Page