São Paulo vs Grêmio Prediction, Betting Tips, Lineups & Odds | 17 May 2025

Back São Paulo to Beat Grêmio

We’ll take São Paulo at attractive betting odds of -125 considering that they could be dominant against Grêmio. The Full-Time Result market provides plenty of value and a nice potential return.

Grêmio 2-1 Victory in Previous H2H Meeting

São Paulo suffered a defeat in their last game. A 1-0 scoreline occurred on the road against Palmeiras. Tricolor Paulista had 42% possession and totalled two shots on target.

Grêmio drew their previous game which was at home. The action ended 1-1 against Red Bull Bragantino. Mano Menezes' side were restricted to just 37% possession and managed four shots on goal, while Francis Amuzu found the net.

Head-to-Head Statistics

Grêmio had the upper hand in the last encounter between these sides. They recorded a 2-1 home victory over São Paulo. Both teams have four wins each from the past 10 H2H games, along with two draws.

Série A		G	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	GD	P
7	São Paulo	22	8	8	6	26	23	3	26:23	32
13	Grêmio	21	6	7	8	20	26	-6	20:26	25

View Full Table

1 win, 3 losses and 6 draws, averaging 0.8 goals from 7.8 attempts and 2.9 shots on goal. São Paulo have had 51.7% possession and 4.3 corners per match. On average, they have conceded 1.0 goals from 12.6 attempts and 4.2 shots on goal, while their opponents have earned 6.5 corners.

Top goalscorer Ferreira has found the net 3 times, Andre 2, with Ryan Francisco and two other players on 1. Ferreira is the leading assists maker on 2.

Grêmio have 2 victories, 4 defeats and 4 draws, with an average of 0.8 goals from 9.6 attempts and 3.9 shots on goal. The Porto Alegre club average 43.9% possession, 4.3 corners in their favour and 5.9 corners against, while conceding 1.6 goals from 11.1 attempts and 4.6 shots on goal.

Francis Amuzu is the leading scorer along with five others, with 1 goals on the board each. Martin Braithwaite, Wagner Leonardo and Matias Arezo have been the top assists providers with 1 in the previous 10 games.

Confirmed Lineups

São Paulo confirmed lineup (4-2-3-1): Rafael (GK), Nahuel Ferraresi, Robert Arboleda, Sabino, Enzo Hernan Diaz, Alisson, Marcos Antonio, Lucas Ferreira, Luciano Neves, Oscar, Andre.

Grêmio confirmed lineup (4-4-2): Tiago Volpi (GK), Joao Pedro, Jemerson, Wagner Leonardo, Marlon, Alysson Edward, Mathias Villasanti, Dodi, Alexander Aravena, Miguel Monsalve, Martin Braithwaite.

São Paulo vs Grêmio Prediction & Betting Tips

We believe that São Paulo are excellent value at -125 when it comes to this Série A encounter. The odds look really attractive and we’re confident of landing a return here.

Injuries and suspensions can affect the overall outcome and we use this information as well as the latest form guide. The same applies to the stats so that we can get the best understanding of how things might pan out.

Key São Paulo vs Grêmio league stats:

• São Paulo have won 12 of their last 20 games at home.

São Paulo to Win Probability

According to the latest odds, our pick has a 55.6% chance of winning. However, we think that the probability sits between 60-65% taking all factors into consideration. That means we’re regarding it as a value bet.

Want to back São Paulo for the win but in search of larger odds? How about taking the bigger Double Result price when it comes to our pick leading at both half-time and full-time.

Our Match Prediction

São Paulo To Win @ -125 Bet Now

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Correct Score Prediction

São Paulo 1 - 0 Grêmio

Our correct score prediction is a 1-0 win for São Paulo which is available at odds of +390. We think they’ll achieve victory and this is a way of getting bigger odds and more excitement.

Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: Aldemir Ferreira Over 0.5 Shots On Target -156

Aldemir Ferreira (São Paulo) is available to finish with at least one shot on goal at -156. He stands out as a value pick when it comes to Shots on Target, with the recommendation being to wager this player prop pick.

Latest Aldemir Ferreira Player Prop Odds

Goalscorer

Anytime

+270

First

+510

Shots On Target

Over 0.5

-161

Under 0.5

-104

Shots

Over 2.5

+104

Under 2.5

-

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Lucas dos Santos Ferreira To Score +390

Lucas dos Santos Ferreira (São Paulo) can be backed at +390 to be among the goals. We’ll happily take the odds that he is able to score at least one goal when it comes to wagering on Anytime Goalscorer.

Latest Lucas dos Santos Ferreira Player Prop Odds

Goalscorer

Anytime

+370

First

+700

Shots On Target

Over 0.5

-120

Under 0.5

-143

Shots

Over 1.5

-182

Under 1.5

-

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Corners Prediction

São Paulo Under 5.5 Corners -125

São Paulo have not covered the 5.5 corners line in seven consecutive matches. We think that São Paulo will come up short and this Team Corners bet can be backed at -125.

League Games

League Games

Last 10 Total For Against

Last 10 at Home Total For Against

Last 10 Away Total For Against

São Paulo

Total

10.80 4.30 6.50

Home

10.30 5.70 4.60

Away

10.20 3.50 6.70

Grêmio

Total

10.20 4.30 5.90

Home

10.30 5.00 5.30

Away

10.30 4.30 6.00

Latest Corner Odds

Total Corners

Over 9.5

-143

Under 9.5

-100

São Paulo Corners

Over 5.5

-110

Under 5.5

-125

Grêmio Corners

Over 3.5

-163

Under 3.5

+120

Most Corners

1

-185

X

+575

2

+170

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São Paulo vs Grêmio Odds

The odds are updated on a frequent basis. You might therefore find that they are different to the ones listed for the above betting predictions.

São Paulo Favourites to Win According to Bookies

São Paulo are the -159 favourites and that means a 61% chance of winning this Serie A match according to the betting odds at the bookies. Grêmio are the outsiders at +460 and they’re regarded as least likely to win.

A low-scoring game will be anticipated by many and Under 2.5 Goals currently has the shortest odds.

To combine various Série A selections within the same match, you will find football betting sites offer a Bet Builder. Start adding the picks you fancy until you’re happy with the overall payout.

Full-Time Result

1

-159

X

+265

2

+460

Half-Time Result

1

+130

X

+110

2

+480

Double Chance

1X

-769

12

-400

X2

+114

Draw No Bet

1

-435

2

+280

Asian Handicap

1 Hcp -0.75

-118

2 Hcp +0.75

-106

Total Goals

Under 2.5

-182

Over 2.5

+138

Both Teams to Score

Yes

+128

No

-182

André Oliveira Silva Top of First Goalscorer List

André Oliveira Silva is available at +245 when it comes to Anytime Goalscorer, with the favourite priced at odds of +480 to find the net first.

André Oliveira Silva (São Paulo)

First

+245

Anytime

+480

Aldemir Ferreira (São Paulo)

First

+270

Anytime

+510

José Sabino Chagas Monteiro (São Paulo)

First

+310

Anytime

+600

Enzo Diaz (São Paulo)

First

+350

Anytime

+700

Lucas dos Santos Ferreira (São Paulo)

First

+370

Anytime

+700

Martin Braithwaite (Grêmio)

First

+370

Anytime

+750

Matías Arezo (Grêmio)

First

+380

Anytime

+800

Cristian Olivera (Grêmio)

First

+440

Anytime

+950

Rodrigo "Rodriguinho" Almeida Mendonca (São Paulo)

First

+525

Anytime

+1050

Francis Amuzu (Grêmio)

First

+600

Anytime

+1200

Damián Bobadilla (São Paulo)

First

+650

Anytime

+1300

Alexander Aravena (Grêmio)

First

+700

Anytime

+1200

Marcos Antônio Silva Santos (São Paulo)

First

+750

Anytime

+1500

Luiz Gustavo Dias (São Paulo)

First

+750

Anytime

+1500

Pablo Maia (São Paulo)

First

+850

Anytime

+1800

Mathías Villasanti (Grêmio)

First

+850

Anytime

+1800

Cédric Soares (São Paulo)

First

+850

Anytime

+1800

Franco Cristaldo (Grêmio)

First

+900

Anytime

+1700

Alisson Castro (São Paulo)

First

+900

Anytime

+1800

Wagner Leonardo (Grêmio)

First

+1000

Anytime

+2200

João Pedro Maturano dos Santos (Grêmio)

First

+1050

Anytime

+2200

Ruan Tressoldi (São Paulo)

First

+1100

Anytime

+2200

André Oliveira Silva (São Paulo)

Over 0.5

-172

Under 0.5

-100

Aldemir Ferreira (São Paulo)

Over 0.5

-161

Under 0.5

-104

Lucas dos Santos Ferreira (São Paulo)

Over 0.5

-120

Under 0.5

-143

Martin Braithwaite (Grêmio)

Over 0.5

-120

Under 0.5

-141

Matías Arezo (Grêmio)

Over 0.5

-119

Under 0.5

-139

Cristian Olivera (Grêmio)

Over 0.5

+110

Under 0.5

-192

Francis Amuzu (Grêmio)

Over 0.5

+132

Under 0.5

-222

Rodrigo "Rodriguinho" Almeida Mendonca (São Paulo)

Over 0.5

+138

Under 0.5

-250

Damián Bobadilla (São Paulo)

Over 0.5

+190

Under 0.5

-345

Alexander Aravena (Grêmio)

Over 0.5

+195

Under 0.5

-370

Franco Cristaldo (Grêmio)

Over 0.5

+215

Under 0.5

-435

Mathías Villasanti (Grêmio)

Over 0.5

+230

Under 0.5

-500

Cédric Soares (São Paulo)

Over 0.5

+265

Under 0.5

-625

André Oliveira Silva (São Paulo)

Over 2.5

-123

Under 2.5

-

Aldemir Ferreira (São Paulo)

Over 2.5

+104

Under 2.5

-

Martin Braithwaite (Grêmio)

Over 2.5

+104

Under 2.5

-

Matías Arezo (Grêmio)

Over 2.5

+106

Under 2.5

-

Lucas dos Santos Ferreira (São Paulo)

Over 1.5

-182

Under 1.5

-

Cristian Olivera (Grêmio)

Over 1.5

-167

Under 1.5

-

Francis Amuzu (Grêmio)

Over 1.5

-132

Under 1.5

-

Alexander Aravena (Grêmio)

Over 0.5

-227

Under 0.5

-

Mathías Villasanti (Grêmio)

Over 0.5

-200

Under 0.5

-

Franco Cristaldo (Grêmio)

Over 0.5

-270

Under 0.5

-

São Paulo vs Grêmio Lineups & Team News

It’s good to know about any injuries and this is reflected in our São Paulo vs Grêmio team news, with this leading to predicted and confirmed lineups.

Getting the player information you need is easy thanks to the Série A squads.

São Paulo Team Page Grêmio Team Page