St. Pauli vs Hamburger SV Prediction, Betting Tips, Lineups & Odds | 23 Jan 2026

Bundesliga Betting Preview: St. Pauli vs Hamburger SV

Bottom club St. Pauli go head-to-head with Hamburger SV in the Hamburg derby at Millerntor-Stadion, with kick-off set for 15:30 on Friday 23 January.

There’s an attractive -119 available when it comes to fierce rivals St. Pauli and Hamburger SV both scoring at least one goal. We’re expecting a nice return from this BTTS Yes wager based on the available stats.

St. Pauli have suffered defeat in their last two Bundesliga games. Most recently, a 3-2 scoreline occurred on the road at Signal Iduna Park against Borussia Dortmund. Alexander Blessin's team recorded just 36% possession and had five shots on target, while James Sands and Ricky-Jade Jones scored one goal apiece.

Hamburger SV drew their previous game which was at home. The action at Volksparkstadion ended 0-0 against Borussia Monchengladbach. HSV enjoyed 56% possession and managed twelve shots on goal.

Head-to-Head Statistics

It was St. Pauli who came out on top when they last played HSV. At Volksparkstadion, a 2-0 away win was recorded. In the previous 10 H2H matches, we’ve seen five St. Pauli victories, three HSV wins and two draws.

Bundesliga		G	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	GD	P
10	Hamburger SV	25	7	8	10	28	36	-8	28:36	29
16	St. Pauli	25	6	6	13	23	40	-17	23:40	24

View Full Table

1 win, 7 losses and 2 draws, averaging 0.8 goals from 8.8 attempts and 2.8 shots on goal. St. Pauli have had 42.3% possession, 416.9 passes and 4.6 corners per match. On average, they have conceded 1.9 goals from 11.9 attempts and 5.1 shots on goal, while their opponents have earned 5.9 corners.

Top goalscorers are Ricky-Jade Jones and Martijn Kaars on 2 goals, while James Sands has bagged 1. Eric Smith and Joel Chima Fujita are top assists makers with 2, while goalkeeper Nikola Vasilj has kept one clean sheet.

HSV have won 2, lost 5 and drawn 3, averaging 5.3 shots on goal, 13.4 attempts and 1.0 goals. Merlin Polzin's side average 47.6% possession, 414.5 passes, 4.1 corners awarded and 3.5 corners against, while 1.7 goals have been conceded from 12.2 attempts and 4.2 shots on goal.

Luka Vuskovic and Albert Sambi Lokonga have top scored with 2, while Rayan Philippe is next on 1. Miro Muheim has had 3 assists in the previous 10 games, while Daniel Heuer Fernandes has one clean sheet to his name.

Confirmed Lineups

St. Pauli confirmed lineup (3-4-3): Nikola Vasilj (GK), Adam Dzwigala, Hauke Wahl, Karol Mets, Arkadiusz Pyrka, James Sands, Eric Smith, Louis Oppie, Joel Chima Fujita, Martijn Kaars, Mathias Pereira Lage.

Hamburger SV confirmed lineup (4-2-3-1): Daniel Heuer Fernandes (GK), Nicolas Capaldo, Luka Vuskovic, Jordan Torunarigha, Miro Muheim, Fabio Vieira, Nicolai Remberg, Bakery Jatta, Ransford Koenigsdoerffer, Alexander Roessing, Damion Downs.

St. Pauli vs Hamburger SV Prediction & Betting Tips

Take in the full St. Pauli vs Hamburger SV betting outlook — from our expert match prediction and correct score pick to sharp corners advice, player prop insights and a bet builder tailored for value.

Match Prediction

The odds of -119 look too good to pass up when it comes to both teams scoring in this Hamburg derby showdown. A nice potential return is on the cards by taking this BTTS Yes option and we think it has a good chance.

The Bundesliga experts at Sportsgambler.com have a strong handle when it comes to injuries and suspensions. The recent form also helps to shape our football predictions, with this being cross-referenced with the latest numbers.

Key St. Pauli vs Hamburger SV league stats:

• BTTS Yes has been covered in 4 of the last 5 St. Pauli games.
• BTTS Yes has been covered in 6 of the last 10 St. Pauli games.
• BTTS Yes has been covered in 2 straight St. Pauli games.
• BTTS Yes has been covered in 4 of the last 5 HSV games on the road.
• BTTS Yes has been covered in 7 of the last 10 HSV games.
• BTTS Yes has been covered in 2 straight HSV games on the road.

According to the top bookies, our pick has a 54.3% chance of landing a return. After careful examination, our experts have this probability close to 60%. It’s why we think it’s worth placing this wager.

There’s a chance to secure bigger odds for your BTTS Yes pick by heading to the Total Goals & Both Teams to Score market and including Over 2.5. Land a return if there are at least three goals along with both sides finding the net.

Take advantage of top welcome bonuses and free bets by browsing our complete list of betting promo codes today.

Our Match Prediction

Both Teams To Score - Yes @ -119 Bet Now

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Disclosure: This preview contains affiliate links; we may earn a commission at no extra cost to you. T&Cs apply. We only recommend licensed and regulated operators. See our Editorial Policy. Pick odds and lines reflect the price available at the time of publication (Jan 21, 21:37). Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Correct Score Prediction

St. Pauli 1 - 1 Hamburger SV

There’s plenty of juice to be found by backing the two teams to draw 1-1. We can’t pass up the odds of +440 when it comes to correct score betting and it’s a fun wager.

Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: Mathias Pereira Lage Over 0.5 Shots On Target +105

Mathias Pereira Lage (St. Pauli) has bagged a minimum of one shot on goal in his past two Bundesliga matches. We’re expecting him to produce a high level of performance and cover the Shots on Target line, with odds of +105 on offer.

Latest Mathias Pereira Lage Player Prop Odds

Goalscorer

Anytime

+400

First

+850

Shots On Target

Over 0.5

+115

Under 0.5

-200

Shots

Over 2.5

+138

Under 2.5

-

---

Damion Downs To Score +340

Damion Downs (HSV) is available to be on the scoresheet at +340. Using all information, we’ll head to the Anytime Goalscorer market where we can bet him to find the net at attractive odds.

Latest Damion Downs Player Prop Odds

Goalscorer

Anytime

+360

First

+700

Shots On Target

Over 0.5

-110

Under 0.5

-161

Shots

Over 1.5

-159

Under 1.5

-

Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Corners Prediction

Under 9.5 Corners -130

The 9.5 Total Corners line has not been covered in seven consecutive HSV away matches. The corners tally could be lower than the line implies and that leads us to a wager at a price of -130.

League Games

League Games

Last 10 Total For Against

Last 10 at Home Total For Against

Last 10 Away Total For Against

St. Pauli

Total

10.50 4.60 5.90

Home

10.20 6.50 3.70

Away

9.40 3.50 5.90

Hamburger SV

Total

7.60 4.10 3.50

Home

8.90 3.60 5.30

Away

7.80 4.10 3.70

Latest Corner Odds

Total Corners

Over 9.5

+104

Under 9.5

-147

St. Pauli Corners

Over 4.5

-130

Under 4.5

-110

Hamburger SV Corners

Over 3.5

-167

Under 3.5

+114

Most Corners

1

-127

X

+600

2

+135

Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

St. Pauli vs Hamburger SV Odds

The odds and lines below are updated regularly and may differ from the prices shown in our picks, which are captured at the time of publication.

The bookies have chalked up the draw at +195 on the 1x2 betting, with Hamburger SV available to bet at odds of +165. St. Pauli are +188 to claim victory in the Hamburg derby.

A win for HSV would see a full payout on the Asian Handicap -0.25 option. You can get +123 that they overcome St. Pauli going down this route and half stake refunded if it’s a draw.

A low-scoring contest will be anticipated by many and Under 2.5 Goals currently has the shortest odds. An alternative angle is a BTTS bet and Both Teams to Score No is available at -132.

Hundreds of markets are made available when it comes to Bundesliga games, with the best football betting sites leaving no stone unturned in terms of available options.

Full-Time Result

1

+188

X

+195

2

+165

Half-Time Result

1

+250

X

-100

2

+235

Double Chance

1X

-222

12

-263

X2

-250

Draw No Bet

1

-111

2

-128

Asian Handicap

1 Hcp +0.25

-154

2 Hcp -0.25

+123

Total Goals

Under 2.5

-200

Over 2.5

+150

Both Teams to Score

Yes

-100

No

-132

Jean-Luc Dompé is favourite to be First Goalscorer at +500 and if you’re keen to back him to simply find the net, then the price is +240.

Jean-Luc Dompé (HSV)

First

+240

Anytime

+500

Ransford Königsdörffer (HSV)

First

+280

Anytime

+600

Rayan Philippe (HSV)

First

+280

Anytime

+600

Danel Sinani (St. Pauli)

First

+350

Anytime

+800

Damion Downs (HSV)

First

+360

Anytime

+700

Robert Glatzel (HSV)

First

+370

Anytime

+800

Oladapo Afolayan (St. Pauli)

First

+400

Anytime

+800

Mathias Pereira Lage (St. Pauli)

First

+400

Anytime

+850

Fábio Baldé (HSV)

First

+420

Anytime

+900

Fabio Vieira (HSV)

First

+475

Anytime

+1050

Bakery Jatta (HSV)

First

+510

Anytime

+1100

Connor Metcalfe (St. Pauli)

First

+525

Anytime

+1200

Jackson Irvine (St. Pauli)

First

+540

Anytime

+1200

Louis Oppie (St. Pauli)

First

+575

Anytime

+1200

Nicolas Capaldo (HSV)

First

+650

Anytime

+1400

Nicolai Remberg (HSV)

First

+650

Anytime

+1500

James Sands (St. Pauli)

First

+800

Anytime

+1900

Arkadiusz Pyrka (St. Pauli)

First

+850

Anytime

+1900

Eric Smith (St. Pauli)

First

+900

Anytime

+2000

Adam Dźwigała (St. Pauli)

First

+900

Anytime

+2000

Giorgi Gocholeishvili (HSV)

First

+900

Anytime

+2200

Albert Sambi Lokonga (HSV)

First

+950

Anytime

+2000

Manolis Saliakas (St. Pauli)

First

+950

Anytime

+2200

Lars Ritzka (St. Pauli)

First

+1000

Anytime

+2200

Jean-Luc Dompé (HSV)

Over 0.5

-182

Under 0.5

+102

Rayan Philippe (HSV)

Over 0.5

-143

Under 0.5

-123

Ransford Königsdörffer (HSV)

Over 0.5

-118

Under 0.5

-147

Damion Downs (HSV)

Over 0.5

-110

Under 0.5

-161

Danel Sinani (St. Pauli)

Over 0.5

-108

Under 0.5

-161

Robert Glatzel (HSV)

Over 0.5

-100

Under 0.5

-175

Oladapo Afolayan (St. Pauli)

Over 0.5

+115

Under 0.5

-208

Mathias Pereira Lage (St. Pauli)

Over 0.5

+115

Under 0.5

-200

Fábio Baldé (HSV)

Over 0.5

+130

Under 0.5

-238

Fabio Vieira (HSV)

Over 0.5

+150

Under 0.5

-286

Jackson Irvine (St. Pauli)

Over 0.5

+155

Under 0.5

-294

Connor Metcalfe (St. Pauli)

Over 0.5

+165

Under 0.5

-313

Bakery Jatta (HSV)

Over 0.5

+180

Under 0.5

-345

Louis Oppie (St. Pauli)

Over 0.5

+180

Under 0.5

-345

Nicolas Capaldo (HSV)

Over 0.5

+220

Under 0.5

-476

Nicolai Remberg (HSV)

Over 0.5

+220

Under 0.5

-476

James Sands (St. Pauli)

Over 0.5

+250

Under 0.5

-556

Arkadiusz Pyrka (St. Pauli)

Over 0.5

+280

Under 0.5

-667

Albert Sambi Lokonga (HSV)

Over 0.5

+290

Under 0.5

-769

Giorgi Gocholeishvili (HSV)

Over 0.5

+300

Under 0.5

-833

Eric Smith (St. Pauli)

Over 0.5

+310

Under 0.5

-833

Adam Dźwigała (St. Pauli)

Over 0.5

+320

Under 0.5

-833

Manolis Saliakas (St. Pauli)

Over 0.5

+350

Under 0.5

-1000

Lars Ritzka (St. Pauli)

Over 0.5

+360

Under 0.5

-1429

Jean-Luc Dompé (HSV)

Over 2.5

+115

Under 2.5

-

Mathias Pereira Lage (St. Pauli)

Over 2.5

+138

Under 2.5

-

Rayan Philippe (HSV)

Over 2.5

+140

Under 2.5

-

Ransford Königsdörffer (HSV)

Over 2.5

+145

Under 2.5

-

Louis Oppie (St. Pauli)

Over 1.5

+145

Under 1.5

-

Connor Metcalfe (St. Pauli)

Over 1.5

+143

Under 1.5

-

Fabio Vieira (HSV)

Over 1.5

-110

Under 1.5

-

Jackson Irvine (St. Pauli)

Over 1.5

+130

Under 1.5

-

Fábio Baldé (HSV)

Over 1.5

+132

Under 1.5

-

Oladapo Afolayan (St. Pauli)

Over 1.5

-120

Under 1.5

-

Robert Glatzel (HSV)

Over 1.5

-120

Under 1.5

-

Damion Downs (HSV)

Over 1.5

-159

Under 1.5

-

Danel Sinani (St. Pauli)

Over 1.5

-182

Under 1.5

-

Bakery Jatta (HSV)

Over 0.5

-244

Under 0.5

-

Nicolas Capaldo (HSV)

Over 0.5

-167

Under 0.5

-

Nicolai Remberg (HSV)

Over 0.5

-172

Under 0.5

-

James Sands (St. Pauli)

Over 0.5

-164

Under 0.5

-

Arkadiusz Pyrka (St. Pauli)

Over 0.5

-135

Under 0.5

-

Eric Smith (St. Pauli)

Over 0.5

-115

Under 0.5

-

Adam Dźwigała (St. Pauli)

Over 0.5

-108

Under 0.5

-

Giorgi Gocholeishvili (HSV)

Over 0.5

-122

Under 0.5

-

Albert Sambi Lokonga (HSV)

Over 0.5

-137

Under 0.5

-

Manolis Saliakas (St. Pauli)

Over 0.5

+110

Under 0.5

-

Lars Ritzka (St. Pauli)

Over 0.5

+120

Under 0.5

-

St. Pauli have collected six defeats, two wins and two draws in the previous 10 home matches, scoring an average of 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.90.

Hamburger SV have been defeated in five straight away matches. HSV have clocked up seven losses, two draws and one win in the past 10 away games, recording an average of 1.00 goals per match and conceding 2.10.

When previously meeting at Millerntor-Stadion, St. Pauli and HSV played out a 2-2 draw. Aside from one draw, St. Pauli have dominated the previous 5 H2H matches at Millerntor-Stadion with four wins.

Last 10 League Games		W-D-L	G	GF	GA	O2.5	U2.5	B-Y	B-No
St. Pauli Home Stats		2-2-6	2.80	0.90	1.90	6	4	5	5
Hamburger SV Away Stats		1-2-7	3.10	1.00	2.10	7	3	5	5

• W-D-L = Wins-Draws-Losses
• G = Avg. Goals
• GF = Avg. Goals For
• GA = Avg. Goals Against
• O2.5 = Matches Over 2.5 Goals
• U2.5 = Matches Under 2.5 Goals
• B-Y = Matches BTTS Yes
• B-No = Matches BTTS No

St. Pauli vs Hamburger SV Lineups & Team News

Know who’s in and who’s out for St. Pauli vs HSV before making your bets. We’ll bring you both the expected and confirmed lineups for the Bundesliga, along with current injury news.

St. Pauli Team Page Hamburger SV Team Page

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