Swansea vs Derby Prediction, Betting Tips, Lineups & Odds | 05 Apr 2025

Best Bet Has to Be Under 2.5

There’s an opportunity to back Under 2.5 on the Total Goals market at odds of -163. This looks like an attractive bet, with Swansea and Derby set to play out a low-scoring contest.

2-1 Win for Swansea in Last H2H Clash

Swansea City drew on the road in their last game. A 2-2 scoreline was played out against Leeds United at Elland Road. The Swans recorded 45% possession and had six shots on target, while Harry Darling and Zan Vipotnik scored one goal each.

Derby County made it four consecutive wins after a 2-0 home success over Preston North End at Pride Park. John Eustace's team had just 35% of the ball and recorded two shots on goal, while Craig Forsyth and Jerry Yates were both on target.

Head-to-Head Statistics

Swansea have won the last two head-to-heads against Derby. The most recent triumph saw them win 2-1 away at Pride Park after a 2-1 home success at Swansea.com Stadium. The previous 8 H2H games have ended in three Swansea victories, three draws and two Derby wins.

Championship		G	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	GD	P
6	Derby	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0:0	0
21	Swansea	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0:0	0

View Full Table

Swansea have 3 wins, 5 losses and 2 draws, averaging 0.8 goals from 2.8 shots on goal and 6.1 attempts. The South Wales club have averaged 51.2% possession and 4.3 corners per game, with the opposition getting 1.1 goals from 3.8 shots on goal, 8.6 attempts and 5.0 corners.

Top scorers Zan Vipotnik and Josh Tymon have found the net 2 times, with Harry Darling getting 1. Leading assistor is Myles Peart-Harris with 2.

Derby have won 4, lost 4 and drawn 2, with an average of 1.0 goals from 5.1 attempts and 2.1 shots on goal. The Rams average 41.5% possession, 3.2 corners awarded and 4.1 corners against them, while conceding 1.1 goals from 7.1 attempts and 3.4 shots on goal.

Marcus Harness has scored 3, followed by Craig Forsyth and Jerry Yates with 2 goals apiece. Nathaniel Phillips and Callum Elder have clocked up 3 assists each in the last 10 games.

Confirmed Lineups

Swansea confirmed lineup (5-3-2): Lawrence Vigouroux (GK), Ben Cabango, Jay Fulton, Harry Darling, Josh Key, Josh Tymon, Ronald Pereira, Hannes Delcroix, Goncalo Franco, Lewis O'Brien, Liam Cullen.

Derby confirmed lineup (3-5-2): Jacob Widell Zetterstroem (GK), Nathaniel Phillips, Matthew Clarke, Sondre Klingen Langaas, Kane Wilson, Ebou Adams, Harrison Armstrong, Liam Thompson, Craig Forsyth, Kayden Jackson, Marcus Harness.

Swansea vs Derby Prediction & Betting Tips

There are reasons to side with Under 2.5 Goals for this Championship match. The two sides could fall short of the line and we really like the odds of -163 that are available for this pick.

Injuries and suspensions can affect the overall outcome and we use this information as well as the latest form guide. The same applies to the stats so that we can get the best understanding of how things might pan out.

Key Swansea vs Derby league stats:

• The 2.5 line hasn’t been covered in 4 of the last 5 Swansea games at home.
• The 2.5 line hasn’t been covered in 7 of the last 10 Swansea games.
• The 2.5 line hasn’t been covered in the last 2 Swansea games at home.
• The 2.5 line hasn’t been covered in 7 of the last 10 Derby games.
• The 2.5 line hasn’t been covered in 12 of the last 20 Derby games.

Under 2.5 Probability

The bookies are estimating that there is a 61.9% likelihood of this pick landing a return. After careful examination, our experts have this probability somewhere between 65-70%. This is why we regard this as a value wager.

There’s a different betting option which means choosing Under 2.5 Goals in a Bet Builder with other selections. This will increase the price and provide you with a run for your money.

Our Match Prediction

Under 2.5 Goals @ -163 Bet Now

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Correct Score Prediction

Swansea 1 - 0 Derby

We’ve found an attractive bet at odds of +430 and it involves Swansea winning 1-0. We like a wager on correct score as there’s the chance to bank a bigger return.

Corners Prediction

Derby Over 3.5 Corners -138

Derby have been awarded an average of 4.90 corners in the past 10 away matches, while the corner count against Swansea has been more than 3.5 in the previous four home games. We think that the value can be found by wagering on Team Corners and you can secure -138 that Derby go over the line.

League Games

League Games

Last 10 Total For Against

Last 10 at Home Total For Against

Last 10 Away Total For Against

Swansea

Total

9.30 4.30 5.00

Home

8.40 4.20 4.20

Away

9.70 4.80 4.90

Derby

Total

7.30 3.20 4.10

Home

8.70 3.80 4.90

Away

10.30 4.90 5.40

Latest Corner Odds

Total Corners

Over 9.5

-150

Under 9.5

+110

Swansea Corners

Over 5.5

-138

Under 5.5

-100

Derby Corners

Over 3.5

-138

Under 3.5

-100

Most Corners

1

-204

X

+600

2

+190

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Swansea vs Derby Odds

With the bookies giving them a 48% probability of winning, Swansea City might become a popular accumulator pick at their current betting odds. That is reflected in their +110 price of winning this Championship clash. The market suggests that Derby County are least likely to win at +300.

A tight game could be on the cards and that is reflected in the short odds about Under 2.5 Goals being scored.

Should you want to back Swansea City to win this Championship match, then there is -225 available on the Draw No Bet market, with Derby County chalked at +162.5.

Full-Time Result

1

+110

X

+210

2

+300

Half-Time Result

1

+200

X

-120

2

+400

Double Chance

1X

-450

12

-275

X2

-143

Draw No Bet

1

-225

2

+162.5

Asian Handicap

1 Hcp -0.25

-125

2 Hcp +0.25

+110

Total Goals

Under 2.5

-250

Over 2.5

+200

Both Teams to Score

Yes

+137.5

No

-188

Swansea vs Derby Lineups & Team News

It’s great to get the latest lineups for the match, with injuries being flagged up thanks to our up-to-date Swansea vs Derby team news.

If you’re looking for the latest player information, check out the Championship squads.

Swansea City Team Page Derby County Team Page