Florida Panthers vs Tampa Bay Lightning Prediction, Picks & Odds | 22 Apr 2025

Why We’re Expecting Lightning to Win

Florida Panthers (47-31-4, 20-19-2 Away) square off against Tampa Bay Lightning (47-27-8, 29-8-4 at Home) in this Stanley Cup Playoffs first round game at Amalie Arena.

We are going to bet against the Panthers with our prediction. The best way of doing this is by siding with the home team and we really like the -127 about the Lightning winning on the Moneyline.

Lightning Too Good for Panthers in Last H2H

Florida Panthers were beaten in their previous six road games and the latest was at Amalie Arena. Tampa Bay Lightning claimed a 5-1 win. Panthers racked up 24 shots and Brad Marchand bagged the only goal.

Tampa Bay Lightning have landed back-to-back home victories. In their last game, it was a 4-0 road defeat against New York Rangers at Madison Square Garden. Lightning won the shots on goal, 27 to 22.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The last encounter between the Lightning and the Panthers saw the former win. It was a 5-1 scoreline at Amalie Arena. The past 10 games between the teams have seen the Panthers win six times.

Starting Goalies

Sergei Bobrovsky (Confirmed)

Season	W-L-OTL:	GAA:	SV%:	SO:
24/25	6-3-0	2.4	.899	1
23/24	36-17-3	2.37	.915	6

Andrei Vasilevskiy (Confirmed)

Season	W-L-OTL:	GAA:	SV%:	SO:
24/25	3-3-2	2.6	.899	0
23/24	30-20-2	2.9	.900	2

3 wins, 6 losses and 1 overtime loss, averaging 2.0 goals from 31.2 shots on goal, with a 12.1% powerplay efficiency. The Panthers have been giving up 2.9 goals from 24.1 shots, averaging 4.6 penalties with a penalty-killing efficiency of 84.8%.

Carter Verhaeghe is the top points scorer with 7 points, 3 goals and 4 assists, with Seth Jones racking up 6 points, 1 goal and 5 assists, over the last 10 games. Goalie Sergei Bobrovsky have a 2.53 goal against average with a .889 save percentage.

The Lightning have 5 wins, 2 losses and 3 overtime losses, averaging 3.5 goals from 26.5 shots on goal, with a 20.0% powerplay efficiency. They have been conceding 2.6 goals from 29.1 shots, averaging 3.1 penalties per game with a penalty-killing efficiency of 80.7%.

The top points scorer is Nikita Kucherov with 16 points, 5 goals and 11 assists, while Brayden Point is next best after having 11 points, 6 goals and 5 assists. Goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy have a 2.15 GAA with a .923 SV%.

Florida Panthers vs Tampa Bay Lightning Prediction & Picks

Game Prediction

Take Tampa Bay Lightning at -127 on the Moneyline to get the better of their opponents. We believe that they have a strong chance of claiming a victory in this NHL clash.

The formbook is always a good place to start ahead of making NHL picks. Team news is also an important port of call, while the player and goalie stats we present always tell an interesting story.

Key Panthers vs Lightning stats:

• Lightning have won 19 of their last 25 games at home this season.
• Lightning have won 15 of their last 20 games at home.
• Lightning have won 2 consecutive games at home.
• Panthers have lost 5 of their last 5 games on the road.
• Panthers have lost 8 of their last 10 games on the road.
• Panthers have lost their last 6 games on the road this season.

Lightning Moneyline Probability

The sportsbooks are estimating that there is a 55.9% likelihood of this pick winning. After careful examination, our analysts have this probability somewhere between 60-65%. This hockey bet can therefore be backed with confidence.

Tampa Bay can be backed in many different ways and you might find the odds more attractive when you check out the Puck Line, Winning Margin or the Match Winner & Total Goals options.

Best Bet

Lightning Moneyline @ -127 Bet Now

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Gamble responsibly 18+. All odds are correct at time of publishing and are subject to change. To use the Bookmaker Live Streaming services you will need to be logged in and have a funded account or to have placed a bet in the last 24 hours. Geo-restrictions apply.

Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: Aleksander Barkov Over 1.5 Shots -192

Aleksander Barkov (Panthers) has totaled Over 1.5 shots on goal in 5 straight games. We think that the value can be found by wagering on Shots on Goal and you can get -192 that he goes over the line.

Latest Aleksander Barkov Player Prop Odds

Goals

Anytime

+240

First

+1200

Shots on Goal

Over 1.5

-192

Under 1.5

+145

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Correct Score Prediction

Panthers 2 - 5 Lightning

Florida Panthers vs Tampa Bay Lightning Odds

The odds and lines are updated on a frequent basis. You might therefore find that they are different to the ones listed for the above betting predictions.

Latest Odds Suggest Lightning Win

Sportsbooks’ favorites Tampa Bay Lightning are regarded as likeliest victors for this game and the -120 about them triumphing means a 55% chance based on their current Moneyline betting odds. For those wanting to back Florida Panthers, you will find -100 about the underdogs.

The puck line stands at 1.5 and the total goals line is 5.5. A wager on Totals allows bettors to use the latest NHL data to good effect. If you're keen on Over 5.5, this selection is available at -112.

Consider every angle when placing your National Hockey League bets. The betting sites have hundreds of team props and game lines and it’s all about finding a selection which matches your prediction of the game.

Moneyline

Panthers

-100

Lightning

-120

3-Way Moneyline

Panthers

+163

Tie

+310

Lightning

+133

Puck Line

Panthers +1.5

-263

Lightning -1.5

+205

Total Goals

Under 5.5

-108

Over 5.5

-112

Nikita Kucherov Favorite to Score the First Goal

Nikita Kucherov can be backed to find the net at anytime at +160. There is the chance to back the market leader to score the first goal at +900.

Player Goals

Nikita Kucherov (Lightning)

First

+160

Anytime

+900

Brayden Point (Lightning)

First

+165

Anytime

+950

Jake Guentzel (Lightning)

First

+180

Anytime

+1000

Matthew Tkachuk (Panthers)

First

+188

Anytime

+1000

Sam Reinhart (Panthers)

First

+188

Anytime

+1000

Brandon Hagel (Lightning)

First

+210

Anytime

+1100

Aleksander Barkov (Panthers)

First

+240

Anytime

+1200

Sam Bennett (Panthers)

First

+250

Anytime

+1300

Carter Verhaeghe (Panthers)

First

+285

Anytime

+1400

Oliver Björkstrand (Lightning)

First

+320

Anytime

+1600

Anthony Cirelli (Lightning)

First

+320

Anytime

+1600

Mackie Samoskevich (Panthers)

First

+320

Anytime

+1600

Yanni Gourde (Lightning)

First

+340

Anytime

+1700

Brad Marchand (Panthers)

First

+340

Anytime

+1700

Nick Paul (Lightning)

First

+370

Anytime

+1800

Evan Rodrigues (Panthers)

First

+425

Anytime

+2000

Anton Lundell (Panthers)

First

+460

Anytime

+2200

Eetu Luostarinen (Panthers)

First

+460

Anytime

+2200

Conor Geekie (Lightning)

First

+480

Anytime

+2200

Mitchell Chaffee (Lightning)

First

+480

Anytime

+2200

Player Shots

Nikita Kucherov (Lightning)

Over 2.5

-185

Under 2.5

+140

Brayden Point (Lightning)

Over 2.5

+150

Under 2.5

-200

Jake Guentzel (Lightning)

Over 2.5

+120

Under 2.5

-156

Matthew Tkachuk (Panthers)

Over 2.5

-125

Under 2.5

-103

Sam Reinhart (Panthers)

Over 2.5

+110

Under 2.5

-143

Brandon Hagel (Lightning)

Over 2.5

+135

Under 2.5

-175

Sam Bennett (Panthers)

Over 2.5

+120

Under 2.5

-156

Carter Verhaeghe (Panthers)

Over 2.5

-105

Under 2.5

-123

Aleksander Barkov (Panthers)

Over 1.5

-192

Under 1.5

+145

Anthony Cirelli (Lightning)

Over 1.5

-135

Under 1.5

+104

Brad Marchand (Panthers)

Over 1.5

-156

Under 1.5

+120

Nick Paul (Lightning)

Over 1.5

+110

Under 1.5

-143

Anton Lundell (Panthers)

Over 1.5

-110

Under 1.5

-118

Micro Betting

It’s possible to use stats to your advantage when it comes to NHL micro betting, especially if you’re predicting outcomes such as the Next Goal and Next Goalscorer. Check out the live team and player props and see if you can find an angle.

Last 5 & H2H

Latest regular season and playoff games stats.

Florida Panthers Stats

Tampa Bay Lightning Stats

Moneyline

• 6 wins and 4 defeats in the last 10 games
• 3 wins and 7 defeats in the last 10 games on the road

Moneyline

• 4 wins and 6 defeats in the last 10 games
• 6 wins and 4 defeats in the last 10 home games

Puck Line

• +1.5 Betting Line: Have covered the +1.5 puck line in 7 of the last 10 games
• +1.5 Betting Line on the Road: Have covered the +1.5 puck line in 6 of the last 10 games on the road

Puck Line

• -1.5 Betting Line: Have covered the -1.5 puck line in 4 of the last 10 games
• -1.5 Betting Line at Home: Have covered the -1.5 puck line in 6 of the last 10 home games

Total Goals

• Game Totals: An average of 5.30 goals in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals on the Road: An average of 4.80 goals in the previous 10 games on the road
• Over 5.5: Covered in 5 of the previous 10 games
• Over 5.5 on the Road: Covered in 4 of the previous 10 games on the road
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 2.80 goals and allowed 2.50 goals in the last 10 games
• Team Totals on the Road: Have scored an average of 2.00 pts and allowed 2.80 goals in the last 10 games on the road

Total Goals

• Game Totals: An average of 6.30 goals in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals at Home: An average of 6.60 goals in the previous 10 home games
• Over 5.5: Covered in 8 of the previous 10 games
• Over 5.5 at Home: Covered in 8 of the previous 10 home games
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 3.20 goals and allowed 3.10 goals in the last 10 games
• Team Totals at Home: Have scored an average of 4.10 goals and allowed 2.50 goals in the last 10 home games

Team Stats - Avg/Game

Last 10 Games

• Goals Powerplay: 0.5
• Shots: 28.6
• Goals Shorthanded: 0
• Penalties: 4.9
• Empty Net Goals: 0.3
• Penalty Minutes: 14.5
• Blocks: 14.2
• Faceoff Wins : 28.1
• Hits: 39.1
• Giveaways: 13.4
• Takeaways: 4.7

Last 10 Games on the Road

• Goals Powerplay: 0.7
• Shots: 28.3
• Goals Shorthanded: 0
• Penalties: 4.6
• Empty Net Goals: 0.1
• Penalty Minutes: 12.2
• Blocks: 14.6
• Faceoff Wins : 26.7
• Hits: 37
• Giveaways: 17
• Takeaways: 4.7

Team Stats - Avg/Game

Last 10 Games

• Goals Powerplay: 0.8
• Shots: 24.4
• Goals Shorthanded: 0.1
• Penalties: 3.5
• Empty Net Goals: 0.2
• Penalty Minutes: 8.9
• Blocks: 16.1
• Faceoff Wins : 25.9
• Hits: 21.5
• Giveaways: 14.7
• Takeaways: 4.5

Last 10 Home Games

• Goals Powerplay: 0.8
• Shots: 24.8
• Goals Shorthanded: 0.1
• Penalties: 3.4
• Empty Net Goals: 0.2
• Penalty Minutes: 8.4
• Blocks: 15.1
• Faceoff Wins : 26.5
• Hits: 20.2
• Giveaways: 16.3
• Takeaways: 4.5

Team News

Florida Panthers Player Stats & Roster

#	Player	GP	MIN	G	A	P	+/-
13	Sam Reinhart	4	21.4	1	3	4	1
9	Sam Bennett	4	15.5	2	2	4	0
16	Aleksander Barkov	4	18.43	0	4	4	0

19	Matthew Tkachuk	4	14.48	3	1	4	1
88	Nate Schmidt	4	15.23	3	0	3	2
15	Anton Lundell	4	15.9	1	1	2	1
63	Brad Marchand	4	15.65	0	2	2	4
7	Dmitry Kulikov	4	16.45	0	2	2	1
3	Seth Jones	4	25.48	1	1	2	3
23	Carter Verhaeghe	4	17.15	1	1	2	0
17	Evan Rodrigues	4	14.2	0	1	1	0
27	Eetu Luostarinen	4	15.9	0	1	1	2
25	Mackie Samoskevich	3	11.97	0	1	1	0
5	Aaron Ekblad	2	21.25	1	0	1	-3
42	Gustav Forsling	4	22.88	0	0	0	-1
77	Niko Mikkola	4	17.78	0	0	0	1
70	Jesper Boqvist	4	8.18	0	0	0	-2
8	Nico Sturm	4	9.53	0	0	0	-1
26	Uvis Janis Balinskis	2	12.95	0	0	0	2
10	A.J. Greer	1	4.3	0	0	0	-1

#	Goalies	GP	GAA	SV%
41	Vitek Vanecek	-	-	-
72	Sergei Bobrovsky	4	2.01	0.902

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Tampa Bay Lightning Player Stats & Roster

#	Player	GP	MIN	G	A	P	+/-
59	Jake Guentzel	4	22.35	2	3	5	-1
86	Nikita Kucherov	4	22.83	0	4	4	2
27	Ryan McDonagh	4	19.55	0	3	3	3

93	Gage Goncalves	4	16.38	0	3	3	-1
21	Brayden Point	4	21.3	2	0	2	1
77	Victor Hedman	4	24	0	1	1	-4
48	Nicklaus Perbix	4	12.48	0	1	1	-1
78	Emil Lilleberg	4	12.25	0	1	1	-1
71	Anthony Cirelli	4	15.4	1	0	1	-3
37	Yanni Gourde	4	14.48	0	1	1	-1
20	Nick Paul	4	17.08	1	0	1	-3
11	Luke Glendening	4	9.9	1	0	1	1
81	Erik Cernak	4	18.13	1	0	1	2
41	Mitchell Chaffee	3	11.23	1	0	1	0
90	Janis Jerome Moser	4	16.05	0	0	0	-1
28	Zemgus Girgensons	4	11.55	0	0	0	1
43	Darren Raddysh	3	13.33	0	0	0	-2
38	Brandon Hagel	3	17.73	0	0	0	-4
14	Conor Geekie	3	12.17	0	0	0	-1

#	Goalies	GP	GAA	SV%
31	Jonas Johansson	-	-	-
88	Andrei Vasilevskiy	4	2.79	0.884

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Injuries & Suspensions

Starting Lineups