New York Islanders vs Tampa Bay Lightning Prediction, Picks & Odds | 06 Dec 2025

NHL Betting Preview: Islanders vs Lightning

The New York Islanders go up against the Tampa Bay Lightning at Benchmark International Arena, with face-off scheduled for 19:00 on Saturday, December 6.

The Islanders and the Lightning aren’t expected to light the lamp too many times, so our prediction has to be Under 6.5. Snap up the -128 that this happens.

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New York Islanders made it back-to-back wins after a 6-3 home success over Colorado Avalanche at UBS Arena. Mathew Barzal racked up 3 points, including 1 goal and 2 assists. Goalie Ilya Sorokin stopped 35 shots (.921).

Tampa Bay Lightning have lost in back-to-back outings. In a recent home game at Benchmark International Arena, they were turned over 4-3 by Pittsburgh Penguins. Brandon Hagel managed two goals and Nikita Kucherov had the other.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The Islanders won the last encounter between the pair. Enjoying a 2-1 triumph when facing the Lightning at UBS Arena. The previous 10 games featuring these teams have resulted in six Lightning victories.

Starting Goalies

Ilya Sorokin (Expected)

Season	W-L-OTL:	GAA:	SV%:	SO:
24/25	9-8-2	2.6	.906	2
23/24	25-19-12	3.01	.908	2

Andrei Vasilevskiy (Expected)

Season	W-L-OTL:	GAA:	SV%:	SO:
24/25	11-6-2	2.3	.916	1
23/24	30-20-2	2.9	.900	2

5 wins, 4 losses and 1 overtime loss, averaging 2.3 goals from 31.3 shots on goal, with a 7.3% powerplay efficiency. The Islanders have given up 2.2 goals from 24.5 shots, averaging 2.5 penalties with a penalty-killing efficiency of 92.0%.

Bo Horvat is the top points scorer with 6 points, 5 goals and 1 assist, with Maxim Shabanov recording 6 points, 2 goals and 4 assists, over the last 10 games. Goalie Ilya Sorokin have a 2.06 goal against average with a .921 save percentage, including one shutout.

The Lightning have 7 wins and 3 losses, averaging 3.6 goals from 28.4 shots on goal, with a 12.2% powerplay efficiency. They have conceded 2.2 goals from 26.4 shots, averaging 4.1 penalties per game with a penalty-killing efficiency of 90.2%.

The top points scorer is Nikita Kucherov with 19 points, 5 goals and 14 assists, while Brandon Hagel is next in line after registering 15 points, 10 goals and 5 assists. Goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy have a 1.34 GAA with a .953 SV%, including one shutout.

New York Islanders vs Tampa Bay Lightning Prediction & Picks

Approach New York Islanders vs Tampa Bay Lightning fully prepared with our expert match prediction, likely correct score outcome and a hand-picked bet builder designed for value.

Game Prediction

The betting odds of -128 look too good to miss when it comes to backing unders on the total line. We’re expecting the scoring to be fairly modest in this NHL encounter.

Injuries can influence the outcome and our NHL handicappers factor that in alongside the latest form guide. We apply the same approach to the stats to build the clearest picture of how the game might unfold.

Key Islanders vs Lightning stats:

• The 6.5 line hasn’t been covered in the last 4 Islanders games on the road.
• The 6.5 line hasn’t been covered in 8 of the last 10 Islanders games.
• The 6.5 line hasn’t been covered in 13 of the last 20 Islanders games.
• The 6.5 line hasn’t been covered in 4 of the last 5 Lightning games at home.
• The 6.5 line hasn’t been covered in 7 of the last 10 Lightning games at home.
• The 6.5 line hasn’t been covered in the last 2 games between these teams.

Under 6.5 Probability

If you go by the top NHL betting sites, our pick has a 56.2% chance of delivering a return. After careful examination, our analysts calculate this probability to be somewhere between 60-65%. This is why we regard this as a value bet.

Placing a bet on Match Winner & Total Goals allows you to go Under but also combine this selection with a franchise to triumph. The advantage is that you will get bigger odds by going down this route.

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Our Game Prediction

Under 6.5 Goals @ -128 Watch Live Bet Now

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Gamble responsibly 18+. All odds are correct at time of publishing and are subject to change. To use the Bookmaker Live Streaming services you will need to be logged in and have a funded account or to have placed a bet in the last 24 hours. Geo-restrictions apply.

Correct Score Prediction

Islanders 4 - 1 Lightning

The Islanders are available at +2200 to secure a 4-1 victory. Many bettors enjoy a correct score wager and there are some nice potential returns to be had.

Latest Correct Score Odds

Score

Islanders

Lightning

1-0

Islanders

+6000

Lightning

+5000

2-0

Islanders

+5500

Lightning

+4500

2-1

Islanders

+1700

Lightning

+1400

3-0

Islanders

+4500

Lightning

+2800

3-1

Islanders

+2400

Lightning

+1600

3-2

Islanders

+1000

Lightning

+800

4-0

Islanders

+6000

Lightning

+3000

4-1

Islanders

+2200

Lightning

+1200

4-2

Islanders

+2000

Lightning

+1300

4-3

Islanders

+1150

Lightning

+950

5-0

Islanders

+11000

Lightning

+5000

5-1

Islanders

+4000

Lightning

+1800

5-2

Islanders

+2400

Lightning

+1300

5-3

Islanders

+2800

Lightning

+2000

5-4

Islanders

+2200

Lightning

+1900

6-0

Islanders

+2200

Lightning

+7500

6-1

Islanders

+9000

Lightning

+4000

6-2

Islanders

+5000

Lightning

+2400

6-3

Islanders

+4000

Lightning

+2400

6-4

Islanders

+5500

Lightning

+4000

6-5

Islanders

+5000

Lightning

+4500

7-0

Islanders

+5000

Lightning

+11000

7-1

Islanders

+5000

Lightning

+6600

7-2

Islanders

+12000

Lightning

+5500

7-3

Islanders

+8000

Lightning

+4500

7-4

Islanders

+8000

Lightning

+5500

7-5

Islanders

+12000

Lightning

+9000

7-6

Islanders

+12000

Lightning

+11000

8-1

Islanders

+12000

Lightning

+11000

8-2

Islanders

+12000

Lightning

+10000

8-3

Islanders

+12000

Lightning

+10000

8-4

Islanders

+12000

Lightning

+10000

8-5

Islanders

+12000

Lightning

+12500

View More

New York Islanders vs Tampa Bay Lightning Odds

The odds and lines are updated on a frequent basis. You might therefore find that they are different to the ones listed for the above betting predictions.

The Tampa Bay Lightning odds have been priced up by the sportsbooks and they are -182 betting favorites to land victory in this game which means a 65% chance of winning. At +150, New York Islanders are regarded as having a lower probability of winning.

The puck line is calculated to be 1.5, while total goals comes in at 6.5. A Totals bet relates to the number of goals that will be scored overall. There’s an opportunity to bet Over 6.5 at +110.

If you're looking to place a National Hockey League wager, head to the top betting apps and explore the wide range of team props and game lines. Take your time to find the lines and odds that offer the best value.

Moneyline

Islanders

+150

Lightning

-182

3-Way Moneyline

Islanders

+245

Tie

+330

Lightning

-112

Puck Line

Islanders +1.5

-164

Lightning -1.5

+134

Total Goals

Under 6.5

-133

Over 6.5

+110

Latest regular season and playoff games stats.

New York Islanders Stats

Tampa Bay Lightning Stats

Moneyline

• 5 wins and 5 defeats in the last 10 games
• 7 wins and 3 defeats in the last 10 games on the road

Moneyline

• 7 wins and 3 defeats in the last 10 games
• 7 wins and 3 defeats in the last 10 home games

Puck Line

• +1.5 Betting Line: Have covered the +1.5 puck line in 7 of the last 10 games
• +1.5 Betting Line on the Road: Have covered the +1.5 puck line in 7 of the last 10 games on the road

Puck Line

• -1.5 Betting Line: Have covered the -1.5 puck line in 6 of the last 10 games
• -1.5 Betting Line at Home: Have covered the -1.5 puck line in 3 of the last 10 home games

Total Goals

• Game Totals: An average of 4.70 goals in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals on the Road: An average of 5.60 goals in the previous 10 games on the road
• Over 6.5: Covered in 2 of the previous 10 games
• Over 6.5 on the Road: Covered in 3 of the previous 10 games on the road
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 2.40 goals and allowed 2.30 goals in the last 10 games
• Team Totals on the Road: Have scored an average of 3.10 pts and allowed 2.50 goals in the last 10 games on the road

Total Goals

• Game Totals: An average of 5.80 goals in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals at Home: An average of 5.40 goals in the previous 10 home games
• Over 6.5: Covered in 4 of the previous 10 games
• Over 6.5 at Home: Covered in 3 of the previous 10 home games
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 3.60 goals and allowed 2.20 goals in the last 10 games
• Team Totals at Home: Have scored an average of 3.00 goals and allowed 2.40 goals in the last 10 home games

Team Stats - Avg/Game

Last 10 Games

• Goals Powerplay: 0.3
• Shots: 31.3
• Goals Shorthanded: 0.1
• Penalties: 2.5
• Empty Net Goals: 0.1
• Penalty Minutes: 7.4
• Blocks: 12.9
• Faceoff Wins : 25.9
• Hits: 16.8
• Giveaways: 14.6
• Takeaways: 4.5

Last 10 Games on the Road

• Goals Powerplay: 0.4
• Shots: 25.8
• Goals Shorthanded: 0.3
• Penalties: 4.1
• Empty Net Goals: 0.2
• Penalty Minutes: 11.4
• Blocks: 12.4
• Faceoff Wins : 29.5
• Hits: 15.2
• Giveaways: 14.5
• Takeaways: 4.2

Team Stats - Avg/Game

Last 10 Games

• Goals Powerplay: 0.5
• Shots: 28.4
• Goals Shorthanded: 0.1
• Penalties: 4.1
• Empty Net Goals: 0.3
• Penalty Minutes: 12.3
• Blocks: 13.7
• Faceoff Wins : 24.9
• Hits: 16.7
• Giveaways: 15.9
• Takeaways: 4.3

Last 10 Home Games

• Goals Powerplay: 0.5
• Shots: 29.2
• Goals Shorthanded: 0.1
• Penalties: 4.1
• Empty Net Goals: 0.1
• Penalty Minutes: 11.8
• Blocks: 13.7
• Faceoff Wins : 25
• Hits: 19.2
• Giveaways: 15.4
• Takeaways: 4.2

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Injuries & Suspensions

Starting Lineups

Both teams’ confirmed lineups will be published ahead of face-off. There is also the chance to look at the lineups from the previous 10 games.

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