Pittsburgh Penguins vs Tampa Bay Lightning Prediction, Picks & Odds | 25 Mar 2025

Lightning Look Too Strong for Penguins

Head to the puck line and back the Lightning -1.5. This means beating the Penguins by at least two goals and our prediction is priced at -100 which means there is lots of juice.

Lightning 5-2 Winners in Previous H2H

Pittsburgh Penguins lost on the road in their previous game. Florida Panthers won 4-3 (SO) at Amerant Bank Arena. Bryan Rust scored two goals and Evgeni Malkin bagged the other.

Tampa Bay Lightning have been defeated in back-to-back games. On the road at T-Mobile Arena, Vegas Golden Knights recently beat them 4-2. Nikita Kucherov and Nick Paul scored one goal each.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The Lightning have claimed back-to-back victories over the Penguins. Both successes came at PPG PAINTS Arena and the scorelines were 3-2 (OT) and 5-2. The Penguins have triumphed in six of the previous 10 clashes between these teams.

Starting Goalies

Tristan Jarry (Confirmed)

Season	W-L-OTL:	GAA:	SV%:	SO:
24/25	3-1-0	2.5	.921	1
23/24	19-25-5	2.91	.903	6

Andrei Vasilevskiy (Confirmed)

Season	W-L-OTL:	GAA:	SV%:	SO:
24/25	1-3-2	3	.892	0
23/24	30-20-2	2.9	.900	2

5 wins, 3 losses and 2 overtime losses, averaging 3.5 goals from 25.6 shots on goal, with a 28.6% powerplay efficiency. The Penguins have given up 3.3 goals from 32.9 shots, averaging 2.5 penalties with a penalty-killing efficiency of 68.0%.

Sidney Crosby is the top points scorer with 16 points, 7 goals and 9 assists, with Rickard Rakell recording 12 points, 6 goals and 6 assists, in the past 10 games. Goalie Tristan Jarry have a 2.47 goal against average with a .923 save percentage.

The Lightning have 5 wins, 4 losses and 1 overtime loss, averaging 3.2 goals from 29.9 shots on goal, with a 17.1% powerplay efficiency. They have conceded 3.2 goals from 26.3 shots, averaging 3.5 penalties per game with a penalty-killing efficiency of 91.4%.

The top points scorer is Nikita Kucherov with 11 points, 3 goals and 8 assists, while Jake Guentzel is next in line after registering 10 points, 7 goals and 3 assists. Goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy have a 2.70 GAA with a .891 SV%, including one shutout.

Pittsburgh Penguins vs Tampa Bay Lightning Prediction & Picks

Game Prediction

Tampa Bay Lightning -1.5 look a great wager on the puck line for this NHL clash. Our pick is that they’ll win with something to spare against their opponents and you can get -100.

Our expert NHL handicappers study the latest form, while injuries can also affect the potential outcome. Before coming up with a verdict, we combine this data with the latest player and goalie stats.

Key Penguins vs Lightning stats:

• The -1.5 line has been covered by Lightning in 6 of their last 10 games at home.
• The -1.5 line has been covered by Lightning in 3 of their last 5 games at home.
• The +1.5 line hasn’t been covered by Penguins in 3 of their last 5 games on the road.

Lightning -1.5 Probability

The sportsbooks make it a 50% chance that our pick is settled as a winner. Taking all factors into consideration, our analysts think there’s a stronger chance of success and have a probability interval between 55-60%. It is the reason why we are recommending this hockey wager.

Want bigger odds when it comes to your Puck Line wager? Never fear, you are able to head to the sportsbooks and move the line until you’re happy with the price.

Best Bet

Lightning -1.5 @ -100 Bet Now

BetMGM Promo Up To $1500 in Bonus Bets Get Bonus T&C apply. Gamble responsibly 18+

Gamble responsibly 18+. All odds are correct at time of publishing and are subject to change. To use the Bookmaker Live Streaming services you will need to be logged in and have a funded account or to have placed a bet in the last 24 hours. Geo-restrictions apply.

Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: Jake Guentzel Over 2.5 Shots -130

Jake Guentzel (Lightning) has finished with Over 2.5 shots on goal in 4 of the past 5 games. We’re expecting history to repeat itself and for him to cover the Shots on Goal line at odds of -130.

Latest Jake Guentzel Player Prop Odds

Goals

Anytime

+133

First

+850

Shots on Goal

Over 2.5

-139

Under 2.5

+105

T&C apply. Gamble responsibly 18+

Correct Score Prediction

Penguins 1 - 3 Lightning

The Lightning can be backed at +1500 to triumph by a 3-1 scoreline. It can be fun to have a wager on the correct score and there’s a big potential return if the bet wins.

Latest Correct Score Odds

Score

Penguins

Lightning

1-0

Penguins

+6000

Lightning

+5500

2-0

Penguins

+7000

Lightning

+4000

2-1

Penguins

+1900

Lightning

+1500

3-0

Penguins

+6000

Lightning

+2400

3-1

Penguins

+3300

Lightning

+1500

3-2

Penguins

+1150

Lightning

+850

4-0

Penguins

+8000

Lightning

+2500

4-1

Penguins

+3300

Lightning

+1050

4-2

Penguins

+2500

Lightning

+1200

4-3

Penguins

+1300

Lightning

+1000

5-0

Penguins

+14000

Lightning

+3500

5-1

Penguins

+5500

Lightning

+1400

5-2

Penguins

+3400

Lightning

+1100

5-3

Penguins

+3500

Lightning

+1800

5-4

Penguins

+2400

Lightning

+1900

6-0

Penguins

+2400

Lightning

+5500

6-1

Penguins

+13000

Lightning

+2800

6-2

Penguins

+6600

Lightning

+1800

6-3

Penguins

+5500

Lightning

+2000

6-4

Penguins

+7000

Lightning

+4000

6-5

Penguins

+5500

Lightning

+4500

7-0

Penguins

+5500

Lightning

+8000

7-1

Penguins

+5500

Lightning

+4500

7-2

Penguins

+5500

Lightning

+4000

7-3

Penguins

+10000

Lightning

+3500

7-4

Penguins

+10000

Lightning

+4500

7-5

Penguins

+13000

Lightning

+9000

7-6

Penguins

+12500

Lightning

+11000

8-0

Penguins

+12500

Lightning

+12000

8-1

Penguins

+12500

Lightning

+7500

8-2

Penguins

+12500

Lightning

+7000

8-3

Penguins

+12500

Lightning

+8000

8-4

Penguins

+12500

Lightning

+8000

8-5

Penguins

+12500

Lightning

+11000

9-1

Penguins

+12500

Lightning

+12500

9-2

Penguins

+12500

Lightning

+11000

9-3

Penguins

+12500

Lightning

+12500

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Pittsburgh Penguins vs Tampa Bay Lightning Odds

The odds and lines are updated on a frequent basis. You might therefore find that they are different to the ones listed for the above betting predictions.

Lightning Big Favorites to Win

With an estimated 75% chance of winning, the sportsbooks are taking no chances with their -303 betting odds about Tampa Bay Lightning triumphing in this game. At +240, Pittsburgh Penguins are regarded as having a lower probability of winning.

The puck line is 1.5, with the total goals line at 6.5. NHL bettors regularly enjoy the opportunity to wager on Totals. If you're keen on Over 6.5, this selection is available at -102.

There are odds of -180 for the Lightning to open the scoring and that makes them favorites. Opponents Penguins are +135 to light the lamp first instead.

The betting sites offer hundreds of game lines and team props when it comes to National Hockey League clashes. Make sure you look through all the available options before deciding which bet to place.

Moneyline

Penguins

+240

Lightning

-303

3-Way Moneyline

Penguins

+375

Tie

+380

Lightning

-175

Puck Line

Penguins +1.5

-106

Lightning -1.5

-114

Total Goals

Under 6.5

-120

Over 6.5

-102

Nikita Kucherov Favorite to Be First Goalscorer

Nikita Kucherov can be backed to light the lamp at anytime at +105. He is the favorite to score the first goal at odds of +700.

Player Goals

Nikita Kucherov (Lightning)

First

+105

Anytime

+700

Brayden Point (Lightning)

First

+105

Anytime

+700

Jake Guentzel (Lightning)

First

+133

Anytime

+850

Brandon Hagel (Lightning)

First

+148

Anytime

+900

Sidney Crosby (Penguins)

First

+200

Anytime

+1150

Rickard Rakell (Penguins)

First

+205

Anytime

+1200

Oliver Björkstrand (Lightning)

First

+225

Anytime

+1300

Anthony Cirelli (Lightning)

First

+245

Anytime

+1300

Nick Paul (Lightning)

First

+260

Anytime

+1400

Bryan Rust (Penguins)

First

+260

Anytime

+1400

Yanni Gourde (Lightning)

First

+285

Anytime

+1500

Evgeni Malkin (Penguins)

First

+335

Anytime

+1800

Mitchell Chaffee (Lightning)

First

+370

Anytime

+1900

Thomas Novak (Penguins)

First

+400

Anytime

+2000

Conor Sheary (Lightning)

First

+410

Anytime

+2000

Gage Goncalves (Lightning)

First

+410

Anytime

+2000

Danton Heinen (Penguins)

First

+430

Anytime

+2200

Philip Tomasino (Penguins)

First

+430

Anytime

+2200

Victor Hedman (Lightning)

First

+460

Anytime

+2200

Player Shots

Nikita Kucherov (Lightning)

Over 3.5

+115

Under 3.5

-149

Brayden Point (Lightning)

Over 2.5

-105

Under 2.5

-125

Jake Guentzel (Lightning)

Over 2.5

-139

Under 2.5

+105

Brandon Hagel (Lightning)

Over 2.5

-100

Under 2.5

-132

Sidney Crosby (Penguins)

Over 2.5

-100

Under 2.5

-132

Rickard Rakell (Penguins)

Over 2.5

+135

Under 2.5

-175

Bryan Rust (Penguins)

Over 2.5

+110

Under 2.5

-143

Victor Hedman (Lightning)

Over 2.5

+110

Under 2.5

-143

Micro Betting

Among the various options for wagering on the NHL, you will find that micro betting is provided. It focuses on short-term in-game outcomes such as whether a goal will be scored within the next 10 minutes.

Last 5 & H2H

Latest regular season and playoff games stats.

Pittsburgh Penguins Stats

Tampa Bay Lightning Stats

Moneyline

• 5 wins and 5 defeats in the last 10 games
• 3 wins and 7 defeats in the last 10 games on the road

Moneyline

• 5 wins and 5 defeats in the last 10 games
• 8 wins and 2 defeats in the last 10 home games

Puck Line

• +1.5 Betting Line: Have covered the +1.5 puck line in 7 of the last 10 games
• +1.5 Betting Line on the Road: Have covered the +1.5 puck line in 6 of the last 10 games on the road

Puck Line

• -1.5 Betting Line: Have covered the -1.5 puck line in 3 of the last 10 games
• -1.5 Betting Line at Home: Have covered the -1.5 puck line in 6 of the last 10 home games

Total Goals

• Game Totals: An average of 6.90 goals in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals on the Road: An average of 5.00 goals in the previous 10 games on the road
• Over 6: Covered in 5 of the previous 10 games
• Over 6 on the Road: Covered in 2 of the previous 10 games on the road
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 3.50 goals and allowed 3.40 goals in the last 10 games
• Team Totals on the Road: Have scored an average of 1.80 pts and allowed 3.20 goals in the last 10 games on the road

Total Goals

• Game Totals: An average of 6.60 goals in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals at Home: An average of 5.60 goals in the previous 10 home games
• Over 6: Covered in 5 of the previous 10 games
• Over 6 at Home: Covered in 3 of the previous 10 home games
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 3.30 goals and allowed 3.30 goals in the last 10 games
• Team Totals at Home: Have scored an average of 3.60 goals and allowed 2.00 goals in the last 10 home games

Team Stats - Avg/Game

Last 10 Games

• Goals Powerplay: 0.6
• Shots: 25.6
• Goals Shorthanded: 0
• Penalties: 2.5
• Empty Net Goals: 0.4
• Penalty Minutes: 5.5
• Blocks: 13.2
• Faceoff Wins : 29.8
• Hits: 19.4
• Giveaways: 17.5
• Takeaways: 5

Last 10 Games on the Road

• Goals Powerplay: 0.4
• Shots: 27.5
• Goals Shorthanded: 0
• Penalties: 2.5
• Empty Net Goals: 0.1
• Penalty Minutes: 5.5
• Blocks: 18
• Faceoff Wins : 28.2
• Hits: 20.6
• Giveaways: 16.1
• Takeaways: 5

Team Stats - Avg/Game

Last 10 Games

• Goals Powerplay: 0.6
• Shots: 29.9
• Goals Shorthanded: 0
• Penalties: 3.5
• Empty Net Goals: 0.4
• Penalty Minutes: 8.1
• Blocks: 15.9
• Faceoff Wins : 31.6
• Hits: 18.8
• Giveaways: 14.9
• Takeaways: 3.7

Last 10 Home Games

• Goals Powerplay: 0.7
• Shots: 29.6
• Goals Shorthanded: 0.1
• Penalties: 3
• Empty Net Goals: 0.6
• Penalty Minutes: 7.6
• Blocks: 15.6
• Faceoff Wins : 29.7
• Hits: 19.5
• Giveaways: 14
• Takeaways: 3.9

Team News

Pittsburgh Penguins Player Stats & Roster

#	Player	GP	MIN	G	A	P	+/-
87	Sidney Crosby	70	20.36	25	53	78	-20
67	Rickard Rakell	71	19.37	32	30	62	-17
17	Bryan Rust	61	19.71	25	29	54	-21

65	Erik Karlsson	72	23.31	10	40	50	-22
71	Evgeni Malkin	62	17.9	15	31	46	-22
24	Matt Grzelcyk	72	20.41	1	32	33	-3
58	Kris Letang	65	23.61	8	20	28	-12
43	Danton Heinen	69	13.53	8	17	25	-2
18	Thomas Novak	54	13.23	13	9	22	-7
53	Philip Tomasino	54	13.38	10	11	21	-6
13	Kevin Hayes	55	12.23	10	10	20	-14
46	Blake Lizotte	53	12.42	9	9	18	-1
20	Conor Timmins	58	16.37	3	9	12	9
55	Noel Acciari	72	13.65	5	6	11	-22
18	Jesse Puljujaervi	26	11.6	3	6	9	-1
23	Vladislav Kolyachonok	32	13.05	2	5	7	-10
19	Connor Dewar	38	10.86	3	4	7	1
5	Ryan Shea	30	16.92	2	3	5	-7
73	Pierre-Olivier Joseph	47	15.26	0	3	3	-22
27	Ryan Graves	51	15.2	1	2	3	-14
83	Matt Nieto	31	12.23	1	2	3	-8
38	Owen Pickering	25	14.82	1	2	3	-5
48	Valtteri Puustinen	10	9.89	1	1	2	-4
15	Joona Koppanen	3	14.57	1	0	1	-1
22	Samuel Poulin	6	10.1	0	1	1	1
52	Emil Bemstroem	10	8.89	0	1	1	0
14	Bokondji Imama	15	5.67	1	0	1	2
3	Jack St. Ivany	19	16.37	0	1	1	-3
11	Vasiliy Ponomaryov	4	9.23	0	0	0	-1
30	Joel Blomqvist	15	51.5	0	0	0	0
2	Rutger McGroarty	3	11.63	0	0	0	-1
4	Nate Clurman	1	11.1	0	0	0	0

#	Goalies	GP	GAA	SV%
39	Alex Nedeljkovic	34	3.16	0.893
35	Tristan Jarry	28	3.08	0.895

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Tampa Bay Lightning Player Stats & Roster

#	Player	GP	MIN	G	A	P	+/-
86	Nikita Kucherov	66	21.45	30	68	98	12
38	Brandon Hagel	70	21.05	32	45	77	26
21	Brayden Point	65	19.65	34	34	68	7

59	Jake Guentzel	69	20.02	34	33	67	9
77	Victor Hedman	67	23.3	12	42	54	9
71	Anthony Cirelli	68	18.85	24	26	50	22
22	Oliver Bjorkstrand	70	15.29	17	22	39	-2
20	Nick Paul	64	16.27	21	17	38	9
43	Darren Raddysh	61	17.93	5	27	32	6
27	Ryan McDonagh	70	20.58	2	21	23	35
37	Yanni Gourde	45	15.75	6	17	23	-5
81	Erik Cernak	64	18.61	3	16	19	24
41	Mitchell Chaffee	61	12.15	12	5	17	-2
78	Emil Lilleberg	64	15.37	0	16	16	-5
48	Nicklaus Perbix	62	14.83	4	11	15	2
93	Gage Goncalves	48	12.36	4	9	13	1
14	Conor Geekie	49	12.14	6	6	12	-3
90	Janis Jerome Moser	42	19.32	2	9	11	14
13	Cam Atkinson	38	8.79	4	5	9	-4
11	Luke Glendening	70	10.85	4	3	7	-9
28	Zemgus Girgensons	70	11.49	2	4	6	-5
67	Declan Carlile	3	13	1	0	1	2
53	Dylan Duke	2	7.85	1	0	1	0
33	Brandon Halverson	1	58	0	0	0	0
73	Conor Sheary	5	11.34	0	0	0	-2
65	Maxwell Crozier	5	16.7	0	0	0	0
64	Steven Santini	1	11.6	0	0	0	0
62	Jack Finley	1	8.4	0	0	0	1

#	Goalies	GP	GAA	SV%
88	Andrei Vasilevskiy	55	2.23	0.92
31	Jonas Johansson	15	3.05	0.898
70	Matt Tomkins	-	-	-
30	Kyle Konin	-	-	-

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Injuries & Suspensions

Starting Lineups