Tampa Bay Lightning vs Buffalo Sabres Prediction, Picks & Odds | 05 Apr 2025

Lightning Worth Backing

We are going to bet against the Sabres with our prediction. The best way of doing this is by siding with their opponents and we like the -119 about the Lightning winning on the 3-Way Moneyline.

Lightning Beat Sabres in Pair’s Last Meeting

Tampa Bay Lightning were defeated in their previous game. On the road, they suffered a 2-1 loss against Ottawa Senators at Canadian Tire Centre. Lightning racked up 32 shots and Brandon Hagel bagged the only goal.

Buffalo Sabres have triumphed in their last four home games. Most recently, they won on the road when beating Ottawa Senators 5-2 at Canadian Tire Centre. The goals were shared around between five players including Rasmus Dahlin. Goalie James Reimer made 33 saves (.943).

Head-to-Head Statistics

The Lightning won the most recent encounter between these teams. A 6-5 victory was registered against the Sabres at Amalie Arena. The past 10 H2H clashes have seen both teams record five wins.

Starting Goalies

Jonas Johansson (Confirmed)

Season	W-L-OTL:	GAA:	SV%:	SO:
24/25	2-1-0	3.1	.913	0
23/24	12-7-5	3.37	.890	2

James Reimer (Confirmed)

Season	W-L-OTL:	GAA:	SV%:	SO:
24/25	10-10-2	3.1	.896	1
23/24	11-8-2	3.11	.904	2

7 wins and 3 losses, averaging 4.0 goals from 29.4 shots on goal, with a 14.3% powerplay efficiency. The Lightning have been giving up 2.1 goals from 23.8 shots, averaging 3.3 penalties with a penalty-killing efficiency of 87.9%.

Nikita Kucherov is the top points scorer with 19 points, 5 goals and 14 assists, with Jake Guentzel recording 11 points, 6 goals and 5 assists, in the past 10 games. Goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy have a 1.37 goal against average with a .937 save percentage, including two shutouts.

The Sabres have 7 wins and 3 losses, averaging 4.1 goals from 25.2 shots on goal, with a 21.1% powerplay efficiency. They have conceded 3.6 goals from 28.0 shots, averaging 3.9 penalties per game with a penalty-killing efficiency of 84.6%.

The top points scorer is Ryan McLeod with 13 points, 5 goals and 8 assists, while Jack Quinn is next in line after registering 11 points, 4 goals and 7 assists. Goalie James Reimer have a 2.85 GAA with a .909 SV%.

Tampa Bay Lightning vs Buffalo Sabres Prediction & Picks

Game Prediction

There’s an attractive -119 that Tampa Bay Lightning are able to get the better of their opponents. This pick can be wagered on the 60-minute line for this NHL game.

The team news that filters through can have a knock-on effect as far as the NHL betting lines and odds are concerned. We use this information along with the form guide, while some key player and goalie stats are also taken into consideration.

Key Lightning vs Sabres stats:

• Lightning have won 4 of their last 5 games.
• Lightning have won 7 of their last 10 games.
• Sabres have lost 29 of their last 50 games this season.

Lightning 3-Way Moneyline Probability

According to the latest odds, our pick has a 54.3% chance of winning. In the opinion of our analysts, there’s actually a probability of success closer to 60%. This hockey bet can therefore be backed with confidence.

There’s often a case for placing a same game parlay which includes a 3-Way Moneyline selection among others. A Bet Builder is a popular way of getting more juice from your wager.

Best Bet

Lightning 3-Way Moneyline @ -119 Bet Now

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Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: Jake Guentzel Over 2.5 Shots -110

Jake Guentzel (Lightning) has totaled Over 2.5 shots on goal in 8 of the past 10 games. We’re going to take him on the Overs for Shots on Goal, with this line making plenty of appeal at odds of -110.

Latest Jake Guentzel Player Prop Odds

Goals

Anytime

+138

First

+900

Shots on Goal

Over 2.5

-110

Under 2.5

-118

T&C apply. Gamble responsibly 18+

Correct Score Prediction

Lightning 5 - 2 Sabres

The Lightning can be backed to win 5-2 when it comes to the correct score. We’ll go for the +1150 that this happens and hopefully we’ll get a good run for our money.

Latest Correct Score Odds

Score

Lightning

Sabres

1-0

Lightning

+6600

Sabres

+6600

2-0

Lightning

+5000

Sabres

+7000

2-1

Lightning

+1700

Sabres

+1900

3-0

Lightning

+2900

Sabres

+5500

3-1

Lightning

+1800

Sabres

+2800

3-2

Lightning

+900

Sabres

+1050

4-0

Lightning

+3000

Sabres

+7000

4-1

Lightning

+1200

Sabres

+2800

4-2

Lightning

+1300

Sabres

+2200

4-3

Lightning

+950

Sabres

+1150

5-0

Lightning

+5000

Sabres

+12000

5-1

Lightning

+1700

Sabres

+4500

5-2

Lightning

+1150

Sabres

+2500

5-3

Lightning

+1800

Sabres

+2900

5-4

Lightning

+1700

Sabres

+2000

6-1

Lightning

+3500

Sabres

+10000

6-2

Lightning

+2000

Sabres

+5000

6-3

Lightning

+2000

Sabres

+4000

6-4

Lightning

+3500

Sabres

+5500

6-5

Lightning

+4000

Sabres

+4500

7-2

Lightning

+4500

Sabres

+12000

7-3

Lightning

+3500

Sabres

+8000

7-4

Lightning

+4500

Sabres

+8000

7-5

Lightning

+8000

Sabres

+11000

7-6

Lightning

+9000

Sabres

+11000

8-4

Lightning

+7500

Sabres

+14000

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Tampa Bay Lightning vs Buffalo Sabres Odds

The odds and lines are updated on a frequent basis. You might therefore find that they are different to the ones listed for the above betting predictions.

Lightning Big Favorites on the Moneyline

The Tampa Bay Lightning odds have been priced up by the sportsbooks and they are -208 betting favorites to land victory in this game which means a 68% chance of winning. For those wanting to oppose the market leader, you can get +172 about Buffalo Sabres.

The puck line is 1.5 and the total goals line is 6.5. There are many ways to wager on the NHL including Totals. If you're keen on Over 6.5, this selection is available at -128.

The Lightning are -155 should you want to back the betting favorites in the Race to 3 Goals. The Sabres can be wagered at +220 to get to the 3-goal mark first.

If you’re wagering on National Hockey League clashes, we recommend heading to the betting sites and scanning through the hundreds of team props and game lines. There’s the opportunity to bet pre-game and in-game.

Moneyline

Lightning

-208

Sabres

+172

3-Way Moneyline

Lightning

-130

Tie

+360

Sabres

+270

Puck Line

Lightning -1.5

+114

Sabres +1.5

-141

Total Goals

Under 6.5

+104

Over 6.5

-128

Brayden Point is the First Goalscorer Favorite

Those interested in Brayden Point to light the lamp at anytime are able to get +110. There is the chance to back the favorite to score the first goal at odds of +750.

Player Goals

Brayden Point (Lightning)

First

+110

Anytime

+750

Nikita Kucherov (Lightning)

First

+110

Anytime

+750

Jake Guentzel (Lightning)

First

+138

Anytime

+900

Brandon Hagel (Lightning)

First

+155

Anytime

+950

Tage Thompson (Sabres)

First

+160

Anytime

+1000

Alex Tuch (Sabres)

First

+205

Anytime

+1200

John-Jason Peterka (Sabres)

First

+225

Anytime

+1300

Anthony Cirelli (Lightning)

First

+235

Anytime

+1300

Oliver Björkstrand (Lightning)

First

+270

Anytime

+1500

Josh Norris (Sabres)

First

+280

Anytime

+1500

Jason Zucker (Sabres)

First

+280

Anytime

+1500

Nick Paul (Lightning)

First

+295

Anytime

+1600

Ryan McLeod (Sabres)

First

+310

Anytime

+1700

Yanni Gourde (Lightning)

First

+320

Anytime

+1700

Jiri Kulich (Sabres)

First

+335

Anytime

+1800

Jack Quinn (Sabres)

First

+335

Anytime

+1800

Rasmus Dahlin (Sabres)

First

+380

Anytime

+2000

Mitchell Chaffee (Lightning)

First

+380

Anytime

+2000

Isak Rosén (Sabres)

First

+410

Anytime

+2200

Noah Östlund (Sabres)

First

+410

Anytime

+2200

Zach Benson (Sabres)

First

+410

Anytime

+2200

Gage Goncalves (Lightning)

First

+425

Anytime

+2200

Conor Sheary (Lightning)

First

+425

Anytime

+2200

Player Shots

Nikita Kucherov (Lightning)

Over 3.5

+140

Under 3.5

-185

Tage Thompson (Sabres)

Over 3.5

+150

Under 3.5

-200

Brayden Point (Lightning)

Over 2.5

+125

Under 2.5

-164

Jake Guentzel (Lightning)

Over 2.5

-110

Under 2.5

-118

Brandon Hagel (Lightning)

Over 2.5

+105

Under 2.5

-139

Alex Tuch (Sabres)

Over 2.5

+150

Under 2.5

-200

John-Jason Peterka (Sabres)

Over 2.5

+125

Under 2.5

-164

Rasmus Dahlin (Sabres)

Over 2.5

+115

Under 2.5

-149

Jason Zucker (Sabres)

Over 1.5

-135

Under 1.5

+105

Micro Betting

Among the various options for wagering on the NHL, you will find that micro betting is provided. It focuses on short-term in-game outcomes such as whether a goal will be scored within the next 10 minutes.

Last 5 & H2H

Latest regular season and playoff games stats.

Tampa Bay Lightning Stats

Buffalo Sabres Stats

Moneyline

• 7 wins and 3 defeats in the last 10 games
• 4 wins and 6 defeats in the last 10 games on the road

Moneyline

• 7 wins and 3 defeats in the last 10 games
• 8 wins and 2 defeats in the last 10 home games

Puck Line

• -1.5 Betting Line: Have covered the -1.5 puck line in 6 of the last 10 games
• -1.5 Betting Line on the Road: Have covered the -1.5 puck line in 3 of the last 10 games on the road

Puck Line

• +1.5 Betting Line: Have covered the +1.5 puck line in 7 of the last 10 games
• +1.5 Betting Line at Home: Have covered the +1.5 puck line in 8 of the last 10 home games

Total Goals

• Game Totals: An average of 6.20 goals in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals on the Road: An average of 5.60 goals in the previous 10 games on the road
• Over 6.5: Covered in 5 of the previous 10 games
• Over 6.5 on the Road: Covered in 3 of the previous 10 games on the road
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 4.10 goals and allowed 2.10 goals in the last 10 games
• Team Totals on the Road: Have scored an average of 2.80 pts and allowed 2.80 goals in the last 10 games on the road

Total Goals

• Game Totals: An average of 7.80 goals in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals at Home: An average of 6.80 goals in the previous 10 home games
• Over 6.5: Covered in 7 of the previous 10 games
• Over 6.5 at Home: Covered in 5 of the previous 10 home games
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 4.20 goals and allowed 3.60 goals in the last 10 games
• Team Totals at Home: Have scored an average of 3.90 goals and allowed 2.90 goals in the last 10 home games

Team Stats - Avg/Game

Last 10 Games

• Goals Powerplay: 0.5
• Shots: 29.4
• Goals Shorthanded: 0
• Penalties: 3.3
• Empty Net Goals: 0.5
• Penalty Minutes: 8
• Blocks: 14.7
• Faceoff Wins : 28.5
• Hits: 15.7
• Giveaways: 14.2
• Takeaways: 3.5

Last 10 Games on the Road

• Goals Powerplay: 0.4
• Shots: 29
• Goals Shorthanded: 0
• Penalties: 3.6
• Empty Net Goals: 0.4
• Penalty Minutes: 8.1
• Blocks: 15.2
• Faceoff Wins : 27.7
• Hits: 17
• Giveaways: 12.7
• Takeaways: 3.8

Team Stats - Avg/Game

Last 10 Games

• Goals Powerplay: 0.8
• Shots: 25.2
• Goals Shorthanded: 0.4
• Penalties: 3.9
• Empty Net Goals: 0.3
• Penalty Minutes: 9.8
• Blocks: 12.7
• Faceoff Wins : 26.7
• Hits: 19.9
• Giveaways: 14.8
• Takeaways: 4.5

Last 10 Home Games

• Goals Powerplay: 0.3
• Shots: 28.6
• Goals Shorthanded: 0.1
• Penalties: 4.6
• Empty Net Goals: 0
• Penalty Minutes: 12.3
• Blocks: 15.3
• Faceoff Wins : 29.8
• Hits: 24.8
• Giveaways: 18.1
• Takeaways: 3.9

Team News

Tampa Bay Lightning Player Stats & Roster

#	Player	GP	MIN	G	A	P	+/-
86	Nikita Kucherov	71	21.31	33	78	111	22
38	Brandon Hagel	75	20.94	34	48	82	30
21	Brayden Point	70	19.6	38	37	75	17

59	Jake Guentzel	74	20.06	38	36	74	20
77	Victor Hedman	72	23.21	14	46	60	18
71	Anthony Cirelli	73	18.75	26	27	53	26
22	Oliver Bjorkstrand	75	15.14	20	23	43	1
20	Nick Paul	69	16.39	22	18	40	13
43	Darren Raddysh	66	17.67	5	30	35	10
27	Ryan McDonagh	75	20.52	3	26	29	41
37	Yanni Gourde	50	15.72	6	20	26	-2
81	Erik Cernak	69	18.38	3	18	21	29
48	Nicklaus Perbix	67	14.72	5	13	18	6
78	Emil Lilleberg	69	15.32	0	18	18	-2
41	Mitchell Chaffee	62	12.13	12	5	17	-2
93	Gage Goncalves	53	12.33	5	9	14	3
90	Janis Jerome Moser	47	19.09	2	11	13	18
14	Conor Geekie	49	12.14	6	6	12	-3
13	Cam Atkinson	38	8.79	4	5	9	-4
11	Luke Glendening	74	10.9	4	3	7	-9
28	Zemgus Girgensons	75	11.59	2	4	6	-5
67	Declan Carlile	3	13	1	0	1	2
53	Dylan Duke	2	7.85	1	0	1	0
64	Steven Santini	1	11.6	0	0	0	0
65	Maxwell Crozier	5	16.7	0	0	0	0
73	Conor Sheary	5	11.34	0	0	0	-2
33	Brandon Halverson	1	58	0	0	0	0
62	Jack Finley	1	8.4	0	0	0	1

#	Goalies	GP	GAA	SV%
88	Andrei Vasilevskiy	59	2.14	0.922
30	Kyle Konin	-	-	-
31	Jonas Johansson	16	3.05	0.9
70	Matt Tomkins	-	-	-

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Buffalo Sabres Player Stats & Roster

#	Player	GP	MIN	G	A	P	+/-
72	Tage Thompson	68	18.7	39	27	66	-1
77	John-Jason Peterka	69	18.34	23	37	60	0
89	Alex Tuch	74	19.36	32	27	59	13

26	Rasmus Dahlin	65	24.24	14	45	59	7
17	Jason Zucker	65	15.99	19	30	49	2
71	Ryan McLeod	71	16.81	19	29	48	14
25	Owen Power	74	21.48	7	32	39	-15
4	Bowen Byram	74	22.87	7	28	35	11
13	Josh Norris	56	18.35	21	14	35	-6
22	Jack Quinn	66	15.01	14	21	35	-18
9	Zach Benson	67	14.61	10	15	25	-1
19	Peyton Krebs	73	13.69	9	15	24	-2
20	Jiri Kulich	54	14.53	14	7	21	-4
23	Mattias Samuelsson	54	18.89	4	10	14	2
75	Connor Clifton	65	15.71	0	14	14	-1
29	Beck Malenstyn	70	10.46	4	6	10	-15
12	Jordan Greenway	34	15.07	3	5	8	-4
78	Jacob Bryson	45	14.41	0	7	7	-7
24	Jacob Bernard-Docker	32	13.3	2	5	7	5
81	Sam Lafferty	52	9.78	3	3	6	-11
48	Tyson Kozak	21	10.49	3	2	5	-2
63	Isak Rosen	6	10.35	0	1	1	-2
27	Devon Levi	9	53.4	0	0	0	0
33	Ryan Johnson	3	17.67	0	0	0	-2
57	Brett Murray	3	7.9	0	0	0	-2
44	Josh Dunne	2	7.1	0	0	0	-3

#	Goalies	GP	GAA	SV%
1	Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen	52	3.23	0.885
47	James Reimer	19	2.94	0.9
32	Felix Sandstroem	-	-	-

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Injuries & Suspensions

Starting Lineups