Tampa Bay Lightning vs Florida Panthers Prediction, Picks & Odds | 28 Apr 2025

Under 5.5 the Most Likely Outcome

Tampa Bay Lightning (47-27-8, 18-19-4 Away) square off against Florida Panthers (47-31-4, 27-12-2 at Home) in this Stanley Cup Playoffs game at Amerant Bank Arena. The Panthers lead the series 2-1.

There might not be lots of goals when the Lightning meet the Panthers. There’s a case to be made for Under 5.5 goals considering the odds of -108 available.

Lightning Claimed 5-1 Win in Previous H2H

Tampa Bay Lightning and Florida Panthers faced off on Saturday, with Lightning enjoying a 5-1 victory at Amerant Bank Arena.

The Lightning had 25 shots on goal and Brayden Point was one of five different players on the scoresheet. Goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy played a starring role, stopping 33 shots (.971). Panthers registered 34 shots and Matthew Tkachuk recorded the only goal.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The previous 10 games featuring these teams have resulted in six Panthers victories.

Starting Goalies

Andrei Vasilevskiy (Confirmed)

Season	W-L-OTL:	GAA:	SV%:	SO:
24/25	3-3-2	2.6	.899	0
23/24	30-20-2	2.9	.900	2

Sergei Bobrovsky (Confirmed)

Season	W-L-OTL:	GAA:	SV%:	SO:
24/25	5-3-0	2.3	.903	1
23/24	36-17-3	2.37	.915	6

4 wins, 3 losses and 3 overtime losses, averaging 3.2 goals from 24.8 shots on goal, with a 18.2% powerplay efficiency. The Lightning have been giving up 2.9 goals from 27.9 shots, averaging 3.5 penalties with a penalty-killing efficiency of 80.0%.

Nikita Kucherov is the top points scorer with 14 points, 4 goals and 10 assists, with Jake Guentzel recording 10 points, 5 goals and 5 assists, in the last 10 games. Goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy have a 2.55 goal against average with a .907 save percentage.

The Panthers have 5 wins and 5 losses, averaging 2.3 goals from 30.2 shots on goal, with a 12.5% powerplay efficiency. They have been conceding 2.6 goals from 23.4 shots, averaging 5.4 penalties per game with a penalty-killing efficiency of 88.9%.

The top points scorer is Carter Verhaeghe with 7 points, 3 goals and 4 assists, while Aleksander Barkov is next best after registering 7 points, 1 goal and 6 assists. Goalie Sergei Bobrovsky have a 2.15 GAA with a .899 SV%, including one shutout.

Tampa Bay Lightning vs Florida Panthers Prediction & Picks

Game Prediction

It’s definitely worth considering an Unders wager, especially at betting odds of -108. We’re not expecting the net to be found six times or more in this NHL clash.

The NHL predictions are only provided once we have a handle on the team news and the latest form guide. We are also on point when it comes to the most valuable player and goalie stats.

Key Lightning vs Panthers stats:

• The 5.5 line hasn’t been covered in 3 of the last 5 Lightning games on the road.
• The 5.5 line hasn’t been covered in 13 of the last 25 Lightning games on the road this season.
• The 5.5 line hasn’t been covered in 31 of the last 50 Panthers games this season.
• The 5.5 line hasn’t been covered in 6 of the last 10 Panthers games.

Under 5.5 Probability

The sportsbooks imply that our pick has a 51.8% prospect of winning. After careful examination, our experts have this probability somewhere between 55-60%. It’s the reason why we are recommending this hockey bet.

You can be flexible with your Total bet by moving the line. Consider all the Under options and then wager on the selection that you think provides the most value.

Best Bet

Under 5.5 Goals @ -108 Bet Now

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Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: Aleksander Barkov Over 1.5 Shots -182

Aleksander Barkov (Panthers) has covered the 1.5 shots on goal total in 4 straight home games. The stats suggest that he can oblige with our Overs wager and we’re more than happy to take the -182 available.

Latest Aleksander Barkov Player Prop Odds

Goals

Anytime

+215

First

+1150

Shots on Goal

Over 1.5

-182

Under 1.5

+136

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Correct Score Prediction

Lightning 3 - 2 Panthers

Tampa Bay Lightning vs Florida Panthers Odds

The odds and lines are updated on a frequent basis. You might therefore find that they are different to the ones listed for the above betting predictions.

Panthers Likely to Win According to Latest Odds

For this game, the sportsbooks’ Moneyline betting odds mean Florida Panthers are -139 favorites to win and that means a 58% chance of landing a victory. For those wanting to back Tampa Bay Lightning, you will find +115 about the underdogs.

The puck line is 1.5 and total goals is 5.5. There are many ways to wager on the NHL including Totals. The Over 5.5 selection is available to back at -110.

National Hockey League fans are spoilt for choice thanks to the wide range of game lines and team props which are available for every clash on the coupon. Head to the betting sites and find the best value wagers.

Moneyline

Lightning

+115

Panthers

-139

3-Way Moneyline

Lightning

+175

Tie

+320

Panthers

+123

Puck Line

Lightning +1.5

-222

Panthers -1.5

+176

Total Goals

Under 5.5

-110

Over 5.5

-110

Sam Reinhart Favorite to Be First Goalscorer

Sam Reinhart is the favorite to be First Goalscorer at +800. If you’re interested in backing him to find the net at anytime, then the price is +140.

Player Goals

Sam Reinhart (Panthers)

First

+140

Anytime

+800

Matthew Tkachuk (Panthers)

First

+155

Anytime

+850

Brayden Point (Lightning)

First

+165

Anytime

+950

Nikita Kucherov (Lightning)

First

+165

Anytime

+950

Jake Guentzel (Lightning)

First

+205

Anytime

+1100

Aleksander Barkov (Panthers)

First

+215

Anytime

+1150

Carter Verhaeghe (Panthers)

First

+215

Anytime

+1150

Brandon Hagel (Lightning)

First

+230

Anytime

+1200

Sam Bennett (Panthers)

First

+255

Anytime

+1300

Mackie Samoskevich (Panthers)

First

+270

Anytime

+1400

Brad Marchand (Panthers)

First

+290

Anytime

+1400

Anthony Cirelli (Lightning)

First

+360

Anytime

+1700

Anton Lundell (Panthers)

First

+360

Anytime

+1700

Gage Goncalves (Lightning)

First

+390

Anytime

+1800

Nick Paul (Lightning)

First

+420

Anytime

+1900

Eetu Luostarinen (Panthers)

First

+425

Anytime

+2000

Yanni Gourde (Lightning)

First

+480

Anytime

+2200

Evan Rodrigues (Panthers)

First

+510

Anytime

+2200

Player Shots

Sam Reinhart (Panthers)

Over 2.5

-100

Under 2.5

-130

Matthew Tkachuk (Panthers)

Over 2.5

-130

Under 2.5

-100

Nikita Kucherov (Lightning)

Over 2.5

-130

Under 2.5

-100

Jake Guentzel (Lightning)

Over 2.5

-100

Under 2.5

-128

Carter Verhaeghe (Panthers)

Over 2.5

-100

Under 2.5

-132

Sam Bennett (Panthers)

Over 2.5

+115

Under 2.5

-149

Brayden Point (Lightning)

Over 1.5

-200

Under 1.5

+150

Aleksander Barkov (Panthers)

Over 1.5

-182

Under 1.5

+136

Brandon Hagel (Lightning)

Over 1.5

-169

Under 1.5

+130

Mackie Samoskevich (Panthers)

Over 1.5

-143

Under 1.5

+110

Brad Marchand (Panthers)

Over 1.5

-185

Under 1.5

+140

Anthony Cirelli (Lightning)

Over 1.5

+115

Under 1.5

-149

Nick Paul (Lightning)

Over 1.5

-111

Under 1.5

-116

Micro Betting

An increasing number of bettors are now enjoying micro betting on the NHL and it’s something which is available on an in-game basis. Wait for the action to start and then wager on something specific to happen.

Last 5 & H2H

Latest regular season and playoff games stats.

Tampa Bay Lightning Stats

Florida Panthers Stats

Moneyline

• 4 wins and 6 defeats in the last 10 games
• 5 wins and 5 defeats in the last 10 games on the road

Moneyline

• 5 wins and 5 defeats in the last 10 games
• 7 wins and 3 defeats in the last 10 home games

Puck Line

• +1.5 Betting Line: Have covered the +1.5 puck line in 7 of the last 10 games
• +1.5 Betting Line on the Road: Have covered the +1.5 puck line in 7 of the last 10 games on the road

Puck Line

• -1.5 Betting Line: Have covered the -1.5 puck line in 4 of the last 10 games
• -1.5 Betting Line at Home: Have covered the -1.5 puck line in 4 of the last 10 home games

Total Goals

• Game Totals: An average of 6.20 goals in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals on the Road: An average of 5.80 goals in the previous 10 games on the road
• Over 5.5: Covered in 7 of the previous 10 games
• Over 5.5 on the Road: Covered in 5 of the previous 10 games on the road
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 3.20 goals and allowed 3.00 goals in the last 10 games
• Team Totals on the Road: Have scored an average of 3.20 pts and allowed 2.60 goals in the last 10 games on the road

Total Goals

• Game Totals: An average of 5.00 goals in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals at Home: An average of 5.10 goals in the previous 10 home games
• Over 5.5: Covered in 4 of the previous 10 games
• Over 5.5 at Home: Covered in 4 of the previous 10 home games
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 2.40 goals and allowed 2.60 goals in the last 10 games
• Team Totals at Home: Have scored an average of 2.90 goals and allowed 2.20 goals in the last 10 home games

Team Stats - Avg/Game

Last 10 Games

• Goals Powerplay: 0.8
• Shots: 24.8
• Goals Shorthanded: 0.1
• Penalties: 3.5
• Empty Net Goals: 0.2
• Penalty Minutes: 8.9
• Blocks: 16.8
• Faceoff Wins : 26.4
• Hits: 20.6
• Giveaways: 15.3
• Takeaways: 4.8

Last 10 Games on the Road

• Goals Powerplay: 0.5
• Shots: 29.4
• Goals Shorthanded: 0
• Penalties: 3.4
• Empty Net Goals: 0.5
• Penalty Minutes: 8.5
• Blocks: 16.4
• Faceoff Wins : 28.4
• Hits: 16.1
• Giveaways: 13.2
• Takeaways: 3.8

Team Stats - Avg/Game

Last 10 Games

• Goals Powerplay: 0.5
• Shots: 30.2
• Goals Shorthanded: 0
• Penalties: 5.4
• Empty Net Goals: 0.2
• Penalty Minutes: 16
• Blocks: 14.2
• Faceoff Wins : 27.7
• Hits: 40
• Giveaways: 13.7
• Takeaways: 5

Last 10 Home Games

• Goals Powerplay: 0.6
• Shots: 32.7
• Goals Shorthanded: 0
• Penalties: 4.3
• Empty Net Goals: 0.3
• Penalty Minutes: 12.5
• Blocks: 17.3
• Faceoff Wins : 25.7
• Hits: 33.3
• Giveaways: 12.7
• Takeaways: 4.8

Team News

Tampa Bay Lightning Player Stats & Roster

#	Player	GP	MIN	G	A	P	+/-
86	Nikita Kucherov	3	21.93	0	4	4	3
59	Jake Guentzel	3	21.77	2	2	4	0
93	Gage Goncalves	3	17.03	0	3	3	1

27	Ryan McDonagh	3	19.53	0	3	3	3
21	Brayden Point	3	20.43	2	0	2	1
77	Victor Hedman	3	23.93	0	1	1	-2
37	Yanni Gourde	3	14.1	0	1	1	0
71	Anthony Cirelli	3	13.63	1	0	1	-2
20	Nick Paul	3	18.13	1	0	1	-1
11	Luke Glendening	3	10.23	1	0	1	1
81	Erik Cernak	3	18	0	0	0	2
90	Janis Jerome Moser	3	15.3	0	0	0	0
78	Emil Lilleberg	3	12.93	0	0	0	-1
28	Zemgus Girgensons	3	11.67	0	0	0	0
14	Conor Geekie	3	12.17	0	0	0	-1
48	Nicklaus Perbix	3	12.83	0	0	0	-1
43	Darren Raddysh	2	14.25	0	0	0	-1
38	Brandon Hagel	2	21.05	0	0	0	-4
41	Mitchell Chaffee	2	10.5	0	0	0	0

#	Goalies	GP	GAA	SV%
31	Jonas Johansson	-	-	-
88	Andrei Vasilevskiy	3	2.7	0.89

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Florida Panthers Player Stats & Roster

#	Player	GP	MIN	G	A	P	+/-
9	Sam Bennett	3	14.77	2	2	4	0
19	Matthew Tkachuk	3	13.8	3	1	4	1
88	Nate Schmidt	3	15.6	3	0	3	2

16	Aleksander Barkov	3	17.73	0	3	3	-1
13	Sam Reinhart	3	21.23	1	2	3	0
63	Brad Marchand	3	15.53	0	1	1	2
25	Mackie Samoskevich	3	11.97	0	1	1	0
17	Evan Rodrigues	3	13.27	0	1	1	0
7	Dmitry Kulikov	3	16.93	0	1	1	0
23	Carter Verhaeghe	3	16.47	0	1	1	-1
3	Seth Jones	3	25.23	0	1	1	2
27	Eetu Luostarinen	3	16.17	0	0	0	0
42	Gustav Forsling	3	22.67	0	0	0	-2
77	Niko Mikkola	3	18.7	0	0	0	1
70	Jesper Boqvist	3	8.57	0	0	0	-1
15	Anton Lundell	3	16.1	0	0	0	-1
8	Nico Sturm	3	10.43	0	0	0	0
26	Uvis Janis Balinskis	2	12.95	0	0	0	2
5	Aaron Ekblad	1	20.3	0	0	0	-4

#	Goalies	GP	GAA	SV%
41	Vitek Vanecek	-	-	-
72	Sergei Bobrovsky	3	2.01	0.903

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Injuries & Suspensions

Starting Lineups