Tampa Bay Lightning vs Pittsburgh Penguins Prediction, Picks & Odds | 12 Jan 2025

Why We’re Expecting Lightning to Win

The prediction is that the Lightning will outscore the Penguins in 60 minutes, with odds of -100 currently available on the 3-Way Moneyline. That looks a price worth taking on this value pick.

Penguins Have Won 7 Out of 10 on the H2H

Tampa Bay Lightning have been defeated in their previous four road games. They recently suffered a 3-2 (OT) loss against New Jersey Devils at Prudential Center. Victor Hedman and Nikita Kucherov scored one goal each.

Pittsburgh Penguins were defeated last time out. PPG PAINTS Arena saw them beaten at home to Ottawa Senators by a 5-0 scoreline. They managed 29 shots on goal, with goalie Tristan Jarry making 5 saves (1.000).

Head-to-Head Statistics

The last encounter between the Lightning and the Penguins saw the former win. It was a 3-2 scoreline at PPG PAINTS Arena. In the past 10 H2H meetings, the Penguins have won seven.

Starting Goalies

Jonas Johansson (Confirmed)

Season	W-L-OTL:	GAA:	SV%:	SO:
24/25	2-1-0	3.1	.913	0
23/24	12-7-5	3.37	.890	2

Tristan Jarry (Confirmed)

Season	W-L-OTL:	GAA:	SV%:	SO:
24/25	3-1-0	2.5	.921	1
23/24	19-25-5	2.91	.903	6

4 wins, 5 losses and 1 overtime loss, averaging 2.6 goals from 28.3 shots on goal, with a 13.3% powerplay efficiency. The Lightning have been giving up 2.5 goals from 30.0 shots, averaging 3.5 penalties with a penalty-killing efficiency of 94.3%.

Nikita Kucherov is the top points scorer with 10 points, 4 goals and 6 assists, with Brayden Point recording 9 points, 4 goals and 5 assists, over the past 10 games. Goalie Andrei Vasilevski have a 2.16 goal against average with a .925 save percentage.

The Penguins have 3 wins, 4 losses and 3 overtime losses, averaging 2.8 goals from 25.3 shots on goal, with a 28.2% powerplay efficiency. They have been conceding 3.5 goals from 30.2 shots, averaging 3.1 penalties per game with a penalty-killing efficiency of 74.2%.

The top points scorer is Sidney Crosby with 12 points, 3 goals and 9 assists, while Rickard Rakell is next in line after having 10 points, 6 goals and 4 assists. Goalie Tristan Jarry have a 2.48 GAA with a .908 SV%.

Tampa Bay Lightning vs Pittsburgh Penguins Prediction & Picks

Game Prediction

Tampa Bay Lightning look great value on the 60-minute line and our pick is that the visitors will claim a victory in this NHL game. We’re happy to take the -100 that they win in regulation time.

Getting the lowdown on injuries and studying the form guide are important duties ahead of making NHL picks. We also place great emphasis on the player and goalie stats and a data-led approach can be effective.

Key Lightning vs Penguins stats:

• Lightning have won 22 of their last 40 games this season.
• Lightning have won 11 of their last 20 games.
• Penguins have lost 4 of their last 5 games.
• Penguins have lost 7 of their last 10 games.

Lightning 3-Way Moneyline Probability

The sportsbooks are estimating that there is a 50% likelihood of this pick winning. In the opinion of our cappers, there’s actually a probability of success between 55-60%. This is why we can recommend this hockey bet.

If you’re looking to squeeze more juice from the odds, consider Tampa Bay on the Puck Line. There are some great options when it comes to our pick covering the various betting lines.

Best Bet

Lightning 3-Way Moneyline @ -100 Bet Now

BetMGM Promo Up To $1500 in Bonus Bets Get Bonus T&C apply. Gamble responsibly 18+

Gamble responsibly 18+. All odds are correct at time of publishing and are subject to change. To use the Bookmaker Live Streaming services you will need to be logged in and have a funded account or to have placed a bet in the last 24 hours. Geo-restrictions apply.

Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: Rickard Rakell Under 2.5 Shots -143

Rickard Rakell (Penguins) hasn't covered the 2.5 shots on goal total in 7 of the past 10 games. We think that he will fail to cover the line and this Shots on Goal bet can be backed at -143.

Latest Rickard Rakell Player Prop Odds

Goals

Anytime

+190

First

+1150

Shots on Goal

Over 2.5

+110

Under 2.5

-143

T&C apply. Gamble responsibly 18+

Correct Score Prediction

Lightning 4 - 1 Penguins

There’s plenty of juice to be found by backing the Lightning to win 4-1. We can’t pass up the odds of +1500 when it comes to correct score betting and it’s a fun wager.

Latest Correct Score Odds

Score

Lightning

Penguins

1-0

Lightning

+6600

Penguins

+7000

2-0

Lightning

+6000

Penguins

+7000

2-1

Lightning

+1700

Penguins

+1900

3-0

Lightning

+3500

Penguins

+4500

3-1

Lightning

+2200

Penguins

+2800

3-2

Lightning

+900

Penguins

+1050

4-0

Lightning

+4000

Penguins

+6000

4-1

Lightning

+1500

Penguins

+2200

4-2

Lightning

+1500

Penguins

+1900

4-3

Lightning

+900

Penguins

+1050

5-0

Lightning

+6000

Penguins

+10000

5-1

Lightning

+2200

Penguins

+3500

5-2

Lightning

+1400

Penguins

+2000

5-3

Lightning

+1900

Penguins

+2400

5-4

Lightning

+1600

Penguins

+1800

6-0

Lightning

+9000

Penguins

+14000

6-1

Lightning

+4500

Penguins

+8000

6-2

Lightning

+2400

Penguins

+4000

6-3

Lightning

+2200

Penguins

+3000

6-4

Lightning

+3500

Penguins

+4500

6-5

Lightning

+3500

Penguins

+4000

7-1

Lightning

+7000

Penguins

+13000

7-2

Lightning

+5500

Penguins

+10000

7-3

Lightning

+4000

Penguins

+6000

7-4

Lightning

+4500

Penguins

+6000

7-5

Lightning

+7500

Penguins

+9000

7-6

Lightning

+8000

Penguins

+9000

8-2

Lightning

+9000

Penguins

+14000

8-3

Lightning

+9000

Penguins

+14000

8-4

Lightning

+8000

Penguins

+11000

8-5

Lightning

+10000

Penguins

+12500

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Tampa Bay Lightning vs Pittsburgh Penguins Odds

The odds and lines are updated on a frequent basis. You might therefore find that they are different to the ones listed for the above betting predictions.

Books Predicting a Close Encounter

For this game, the sportsbooks’ Moneyline betting odds mean Tampa Bay Lightning are -156 favorites to win and that means a 61% chance of landing a victory. Pittsburgh Penguins are trading at bigger odds than their opponents and they can be backed at +128.

1.5 is the puck line and 6.5 is the total goals line. A wager on Totals allows bettors to use the latest NHL data to good effect. There’s an opportunity to bet Over 6.5 at -127.

The Lightning are favorites to score first at odds of -130. Conversely, if you think opponents Penguins will open the scoring, they are -110 to do so.

You can find a huge selection of game lines and team props for every National Hockey League encounter, with the betting sites creating many different options. Check out the pre-game and in-game selections before placing your bets.

Moneyline

Lightning

-156

Penguins

+128

3-Way Moneyline

Lightning

+102

Tie

+335

Penguins

+205

Puck Line

Lightning -1.5

+160

Penguins +1.5

-192

Total Goals

Under 6.5

+105

Over 6.5

-127

Nikita Kucherov Favorite to Be First Goalscorer

Nikita Kucherov is available at -102 when it comes to Anytime Goalscorer. The favorite is now priced at odds of +700 to find the net first.

Player Goals

Nikita Kucherov (Lightning)

First

-102

Anytime

+700

Brayden Point (Lightning)

First

+117

Anytime

+800

Jake Guentzel (Lightning)

First

+133

Anytime

+900

Sidney Crosby (Penguins)

First

+160

Anytime

+1000

Brandon Hagel (Lightning)

First

+163

Anytime

+1000

Rickard Rakell (Penguins)

First

+190

Anytime

+1150

Bryan Rust (Penguins)

First

+200

Anytime

+1200

Anthony Cirelli (Lightning)

First

+205

Anytime

+1200

Michael Bunting (Penguins)

First

+245

Anytime

+1400

Evgeni Malkin (Penguins)

First

+245

Anytime

+1400

Conor Geekie (Lightning)

First

+285

Anytime

+1600

Cam Atkinson (Lightning)

First

+310

Anytime

+1700

Nick Paul (Lightning)

First

+310

Anytime

+1700

Michael Eyssimont (Lightning)

First

+370

Anytime

+1900

Gage Goncalves (Lightning)

First

+370

Anytime

+1900

Anthony Beauvillier (Penguins)

First

+370

Anytime

+2000

Drew O'Connor (Penguins)

First

+400

Anytime

+2000

Sam Poulin (Penguins)

First

+440

Anytime

+2200

Blake Lizotte (Penguins)

First

+440

Anytime

+2200

Kevin Hayes (Penguins)

First

+440

Anytime

+2200

Mitchell Chaffee (Lightning)

First

+450

Anytime

+2200

Victor Hedman (Lightning)

First

+450

Anytime

+2200

Conor Sheary (Lightning)

First

+450

Anytime

+2200

Player Shots

Nikita Kucherov (Lightning)

Over 3.5

+110

Under 3.5

-143

Brayden Point (Lightning)

Over 2.5

+110

Under 2.5

-143

Jake Guentzel (Lightning)

Over 2.5

-118

Under 2.5

-110

Sidney Crosby (Penguins)

Over 2.5

-156

Under 2.5

+120

Brandon Hagel (Lightning)

Over 2.5

-100

Under 2.5

-130

Rickard Rakell (Penguins)

Over 2.5

+110

Under 2.5

-143

Bryan Rust (Penguins)

Over 2.5

-125

Under 2.5

-103

Victor Hedman (Lightning)

Over 2.5

+115

Under 2.5

-149

Micro Betting

Micro betting provides an interesting rollercoaster ride for NHL bettors. It can be great to enjoy the live lines, with the opportunity to wager on the Next Goal and Next Goalscorer. Watch the live action before deciding which way to go.

Last 5 & H2H

Latest regular season and playoff games stats.

Tampa Bay Lightning Stats

Pittsburgh Penguins Stats

Moneyline

• 4 wins and 6 defeats in the last 10 games
• 5 wins and 5 defeats in the last 10 games on the road

Moneyline

• 3 wins and 7 defeats in the last 10 games
• 7 wins and 3 defeats in the last 10 home games

Puck Line

• -1.5 Betting Line: Have covered the -1.5 puck line in 3 of the last 10 games
• -1.5 Betting Line on the Road: Have covered the -1.5 puck line in 4 of the last 10 games on the road

Puck Line

• +1.5 Betting Line: Have covered the +1.5 puck line in 6 of the last 10 games
• +1.5 Betting Line at Home: Have covered the +1.5 puck line in 8 of the last 10 home games

Total Goals

• Game Totals: An average of 5.10 goals in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals on the Road: An average of 5.10 goals in the previous 10 games on the road
• Over 6.5: Covered in 2 of the previous 10 games
• Over 6.5 on the Road: Covered in 1 of the previous 10 games on the road
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 2.60 goals and allowed 2.50 goals in the last 10 games
• Team Totals on the Road: Have scored an average of 3.00 pts and allowed 2.10 goals in the last 10 games on the road

Total Goals

• Game Totals: An average of 6.50 goals in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals at Home: An average of 7.20 goals in the previous 10 home games
• Over 6.5: Covered in 5 of the previous 10 games
• Over 6.5 at Home: Covered in 7 of the previous 10 home games
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 2.80 goals and allowed 3.70 goals in the last 10 games
• Team Totals at Home: Have scored an average of 3.90 goals and allowed 3.30 goals in the last 10 home games

Team Stats - Avg/Game

Last 10 Games

• Goals Powerplay: 0.6
• Shots: 28.3
• Goals Shorthanded: 0.4
• Penalties: 3.5
• Empty Net Goals: 0.2
• Penalty Minutes: 10.6
• Blocks: 16.8
• Faceoff Wins : 30.4
• Hits: 19
• Giveaways: 13.8
• Takeaways: 4.9

Last 10 Games on the Road

• Goals Powerplay: 0.9
• Shots: 29
• Goals Shorthanded: 0.2
• Penalties: 2.7
• Empty Net Goals: 0.3
• Penalty Minutes: 7.8
• Blocks: 17.8
• Faceoff Wins : 29
• Hits: 17
• Giveaways: 15.6
• Takeaways: 4.9

Team Stats - Avg/Game

Last 10 Games

• Goals Powerplay: 1.1
• Shots: 25.3
• Goals Shorthanded: 0
• Penalties: 3.1
• Empty Net Goals: 0.1
• Penalty Minutes: 7
• Blocks: 13.7
• Faceoff Wins : 27
• Hits: 17.7
• Giveaways: 12.2
• Takeaways: 4.2

Last 10 Home Games

• Goals Powerplay: 1.2
• Shots: 28.7
• Goals Shorthanded: 0.2
• Penalties: 3.1
• Empty Net Goals: 0.3
• Penalty Minutes: 6.2
• Blocks: 14.9
• Faceoff Wins : 31
• Hits: 16.6
• Giveaways: 12.5
• Takeaways: 4.2

Team News

Tampa Bay Lightning Player Stats & Roster

#	Player	GP	MIN	G	A	P	+/-
86	Nikita Kucherov	38	21.24	18	41	59	13
21	Brayden Point	36	19.79	25	22	47	2
38	Brandon Hagel	40	21.34	19	27	46	16

59	Jake Guentzel	39	20.26	21	19	40	8
71	Anthony Cirelli	39	18.57	16	18	34	18
77	Victor Hedman	38	23.33	6	25	31	7
20	Nick Paul	34	16.47	10	13	23	0
43	Darren Raddysh	32	17.25	1	13	14	6
27	Ryan McDonagh	40	20.54	1	12	13	20
14	Conor Geekie	39	12.33	5	6	11	1
41	Mitchell Chaffee	36	13.16	7	4	11	2
90	Janis Jerome Moser	27	19.9	2	8	10	13
81	Erik Cernak	38	18.62	0	10	10	11
48	Nicklaus Perbix	35	15.27	4	6	10	5
78	Emil Lilleberg	37	15.36	0	8	8	-4
23	Michael Eyssimont	38	11.04	4	2	6	-3
13	Cam Atkinson	23	9.24	3	2	5	-4
11	Luke Glendening	40	10.93	2	2	4	-4
28	Zemgus Girgensons	40	10.79	0	2	2	-4
93	Gage Goncalves	25	11.95	1	1	2	0
67	Declan Carlile	1	11.2	1	0	1	1
73	Conor Sheary	4	11.35	0	0	0	-2
64	Steven Santini	1	11.6	0	0	0	0

#	Goalies	GP	GAA	SV%
88	Andrei Vasilevski	32	2.3	0.916
31	Jonas Johansson	9	3.32	0.898
70	Matt Tomkins	-	-	-

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Pittsburgh Penguins Player Stats & Roster

#	Player	GP	MIN	G	A	P	+/-
87	Sidney Crosby	44	20.18	12	35	47	-12
67	Rickard Rakell	44	18.8	21	15	36	-7
71	Evgeni Malkin	41	18.59	8	24	32	-17

17	Bryan Rust	37	19.55	16	16	32	-19
65	Erik Karlsson	44	22.93	4	27	31	-10
8	Michael Bunting	43	14.96	13	12	25	-13
24	Matt Grzelcyk	44	20.23	1	21	22	-11
58	Kris Letang	38	23.45	7	9	16	-14
28	Marcus Pettersson	38	21.9	2	13	15	-2
10	Drew O'Connor	44	14.69	6	9	15	-11
72	Anthony Beauvillier	43	11.92	9	3	12	0
46	Blake Lizotte	28	11.89	8	4	12	5
13	Kevin Hayes	27	10.24	6	3	9	-11
18	Jesse Puljujaervi	24	11.6	3	6	9	-2
19	Cody Glass	31	12.99	1	8	9	-9
53	Philip Tomasino	27	12.67	4	4	8	-3
55	Noel Acciari	44	13.88	4	4	8	-12
83	Matt Nieto	23	12.6	1	2	3	-2
5	Ryan Shea	20	15.41	0	2	2	-6
73	Pierre-Olivier Joseph	33	14.79	0	2	2	-14
48	Valtteri Puustinen	10	9.89	1	1	2	-4
38	Owen Pickering	19	14.99	1	1	2	-4
3	Jack St. Ivany	19	16.37	0	1	1	-3
22	Samuel Poulin	6	10.1	0	1	1	1
2	Rutger McGroarty	3	11.63	0	0	0	-1
11	Vasiliy Ponomaryov	3	9.2	0	0	0	0
27	Ryan Graves	31	15.43	0	0	0	-8
30	Joel Blomqvist	8	52.03	0	0	0	0
4	Nate Clurman	1	11.1	0	0	0	0

#	Goalies	GP	GAA	SV%
35	Tristan Jarry	20	3.28	0.89
39	Alex Nedeljkovic	19	3.4	0.886

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Injuries & Suspensions

Starting Lineups