Tampa Bay Lightning vs Toronto Maple Leafs Prediction, Picks & Odds | 08 Dec 2025

NHL Betting Preview: Lightning vs Maple Leafs

The Tampa Bay Lightning go up against the Toronto Maple Leafs at Scotiabank Arena, with face-off scheduled for 19:30 on Monday, December 8.

There is -114 on offer when it comes to the Lightning on the Moneyline and we’re expecting the visitors to beat the Maple Leafs. There’s plenty of juice when it comes to backing our prediction.

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Tampa Bay Lightning have lost in their previous three outings. In a recent home game at Benchmark International Arena, they were turned over 2-0 by New York Islanders. They registered 32 shots on goal, with goalie Jonas Johansson making 17 saves (.944).

Toronto Maple Leafs were beaten 2-1 (SO) at Scotiabank Arena in their last game, being turned over at home to Montreal Canadiens. Scott Laughton scored the only goal, with Dennis Hildeby recording 33 saves (.971).

Head-to-Head Statistics

It was a 4-3 win for the Leafs at Benchmark International Arena when they last played the Lightning. The Leafs have four straight wins against the Lightning. They’ve also claimed 7 victories in the past 10 head-to-head meetings.

Starting Goalies

Jonas Johansson (Confirmed)

Season	W-L-OTL:	GAA:	SV%:	SO:
24/25	10-7-1	2.9	.890	0
23/24	12-7-5	3.37	.890	2

Dennis Hildeby (Confirmed)

Season	W-L-OTL:	GAA:	SV%:	SO:
24/25	5-6-4	2.9	.910	1

7 wins and 3 losses, averaging 3.4 goals from 28.6 shots on goal, with a 13.9% powerplay efficiency. The Lightning have given up 1.8 goals from 26.5 shots, averaging 3.7 penalties with a penalty-killing efficiency of 91.9%.

Nikita Kucherov is the top points scorer with 18 points, 4 goals and 14 assists, with Brandon Hagel racking up 14 points, 10 goals and 4 assists, over the last 10 games. Goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy have a 1.34 goal against average with a .953 save percentage, including one shutout.

The Leafs have 5 wins, 3 losses and 2 overtime losses, averaging 3.0 goals from 26.4 shots on goal, with a 6.5% powerplay efficiency. They have been conceding 2.3 goals from 31.8 shots, averaging 3.4 penalties per game with a penalty-killing efficiency of 91.2%.

The top points scorer is Oliver Ekman-Larsson with 8 points, 2 goals and 6 assists, while William Nylander is next best after having 7 points, 3 goals and 4 assists. Goalie Joseph Woll have a 2.30 GAA with a .928 SV%.

Tampa Bay Lightning vs Toronto Maple Leafs Prediction & Picks

We bring you the complete Tampa Bay Lightning vs Toronto Maple Leafs betting insight, including our top match prediction, correct score forecast, player prop advice and a ready-made bet builder.

Game Prediction

The best pick for this NHL clash is to back Tampa Bay Lightning at -114. We think that the home team are vulnerable, so this is the best angle of attack with our wager.

We put solid research behind every hockey prediction, starting with recent form and a clear read on injuries. From there, key NHL stats and advanced metrics help complete the picture and support smarter betting decisions

Key Lightning vs Maple Leafs stats:

• Lightning have won 4 of their last 5 games on the road.
• Lightning have won 7 of their last 10 games.
• Maple Leafs have lost 4 of their last 5 games at home.
• Maple Leafs have lost their last 2 games at home.

Lightning Moneyline Probability

The top betting apps are estimating that there is a 53.2% likelihood of this pick winning. After careful examination, our analysts calculate this probability to be closer to 60%. It’s the reason why we are recommending this hockey bet.

There’s the opportunity to get bigger win odds for Tampa Bay by combining this with the number of goals that are scored. Match Winner & Total Goals is a popular betting option.

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Our Game Prediction

Lightning Moneyline @ -114 Bet Now

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Disclosure: This preview contains affiliate links; we may earn a commission at no extra cost to you. T&Cs apply. We only recommend licensed and regulated operators. See our Editorial Policy. Pick odds and lines reflect the price available at the time of publication (23:56, 07 December 2025). Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: John Tavares Over 2.5 Shots -164

John Tavares (Maple Leafs) has covered the 2.5 shots on goal total in 8 of the past 10 games. There is odds of -164 available when it comes to this Shots on Goal wager and we think he’ll cover the line.

Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Correct Score Prediction

Lightning 4 - 2 Maple Leafs

We’ve got a correct score prediction which involves the Lightning winning 4-2. Odds of +1500 look appealing and we should get a run for our money here.

Latest Correct Score Odds

Score

Lightning

Maple Leafs

1-0

Lightning

+6000

Maple Leafs

+6600

2-0

Lightning

+5500

Maple Leafs

+6000

2-1

Lightning

+1700

Maple Leafs

+1700

3-0

Lightning

+3500

Maple Leafs

+4000

3-1

Lightning

+2000

Maple Leafs

+2200

3-2

Lightning

+900

Maple Leafs

+950

4-0

Lightning

+4500

Maple Leafs

+5000

4-1

Lightning

+1600

Maple Leafs

+1900

4-2

Lightning

+1500

Maple Leafs

+1700

4-3

Lightning

+950

Maple Leafs

+1000

5-0

Lightning

+7000

Maple Leafs

+9000

5-1

Lightning

+2500

Maple Leafs

+3000

5-2

Lightning

+1500

Maple Leafs

+1800

5-3

Lightning

+2000

Maple Leafs

+2200

5-4

Lightning

+1700

Maple Leafs

+1800

6-0

Lightning

+10000

Maple Leafs

+13000

6-1

Lightning

+5000

Maple Leafs

+7000

6-2

Lightning

+2800

Maple Leafs

+3500

6-3

Lightning

+2400

Maple Leafs

+2900

6-4

Lightning

+4000

Maple Leafs

+4500

6-5

Lightning

+4000

Maple Leafs

+4000

7-0

Lightning

+15000

Maple Leafs

+14000

7-1

Lightning

+9000

Maple Leafs

+11000

7-2

Lightning

+6600

Maple Leafs

+9000

7-3

Lightning

+4500

Maple Leafs

+6000

7-4

Lightning

+5000

Maple Leafs

+6000

7-5

Lightning

+8000

Maple Leafs

+9000

7-6

Lightning

+9000

Maple Leafs

+9000

8-1

Lightning

+14000

Maple Leafs

+14000

8-2

Lightning

+11000

Maple Leafs

+14000

8-3

Lightning

+11000

Maple Leafs

+14000

8-4

Lightning

+9000

Maple Leafs

+11000

8-5

Lightning

+11000

Maple Leafs

+12500

View More

Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Tampa Bay Lightning vs Toronto Maple Leafs Odds

The odds and lines below are updated regularly and may differ from the prices shown in our picks, which are captured at the time of publication.

Toronto Maple Leafs have been given Moneyline odds of +104 against Tampa Bay Lightning who are -125. The sportsbooks award a 56% probability that the road team will be settled as a winning bet.

The puck line is 1.5 and the total goals line is 6.5. A wager on Totals allows bettors to use the latest data to good effect. If you’re going for Over 6.5, then the odds are -104.

The good news is that you can access hundreds of team props and game lines for every National Hockey League matchup. The best sportsbooks have a huge range of pre-game and in-game betting options.

Moneyline

Lightning

-125

Maple Leafs

+104

3-Way Moneyline

Lightning

+125

Tie

+320

Maple Leafs

+170

Puck Line

Lightning -1.5

+194

Maple Leafs +1.5

-244

Total Goals

Under 6.5

-118

Over 6.5

-104

Should you be more interested in a specific individual who is competing, check out the gambling sites’ prop bets where you can pick out player and goalie props that focus on performance rather than the game result.

An increasing number of bettors are now enjoying micro betting on the NHL and it’s something which is available on an in-game basis. Wait for the action to start and then wager on something specific to happen.

Latest regular season and playoff games stats.

Tampa Bay Lightning Stats

Toronto Maple Leafs Stats

Moneyline

• 7 wins and 3 defeats in the last 10 games
• 7 wins and 3 defeats in the last 10 games on the road

Moneyline

• 5 wins and 5 defeats in the last 10 games
• 5 wins and 5 defeats in the last 10 home games

Puck Line

• -1.5 Betting Line: Have covered the -1.5 puck line in 6 of the last 10 games
• -1.5 Betting Line on the Road: Have covered the -1.5 puck line in 7 of the last 10 games on the road

Puck Line

• +1.5 Betting Line: Have covered the +1.5 puck line in 8 of the last 10 games
• +1.5 Betting Line at Home: Have covered the +1.5 puck line in 9 of the last 10 home games

Total Goals

• Game Totals: An average of 5.20 goals in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals on the Road: An average of 6.10 goals in the previous 10 games on the road
• Over 6.5: Covered in 3 of the previous 10 games
• Over 6.5 on the Road: Covered in 4 of the previous 10 games on the road
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 3.40 goals and allowed 1.80 goals in the last 10 games
• Team Totals on the Road: Have scored an average of 3.80 pts and allowed 2.30 goals in the last 10 games on the road

Total Goals

• Game Totals: An average of 5.40 goals in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals at Home: An average of 6.60 goals in the previous 10 home games
• Over 6.5: Covered in 2 of the previous 10 games
• Over 6.5 at Home: Covered in 7 of the previous 10 home games
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 3.00 goals and allowed 2.40 goals in the last 10 games
• Team Totals at Home: Have scored an average of 3.30 goals and allowed 3.30 goals in the last 10 home games

Team Stats - Avg/Game

Last 10 Games

• Goals Powerplay: 0.5
• Shots: 28.6
• Goals Shorthanded: 0.1
• Penalties: 3.7
• Empty Net Goals: 0.3
• Penalty Minutes: 9.6
• Blocks: 14.9
• Faceoff Wins : 24.8
• Hits: 17
• Giveaways: 15.3
• Takeaways: 4.7

Last 10 Games on the Road

• Goals Powerplay: 0.5
• Shots: 26.2
• Goals Shorthanded: 0.1
• Penalties: 4.5
• Empty Net Goals: 0.6
• Penalty Minutes: 10.9
• Blocks: 13.9
• Faceoff Wins : 24.9
• Hits: 16.7
• Giveaways: 14.8
• Takeaways: 3.9

Team Stats - Avg/Game

Last 10 Games

• Goals Powerplay: 0.2
• Shots: 26.4
• Goals Shorthanded: 0.1
• Penalties: 3.4
• Empty Net Goals: 0.2
• Penalty Minutes: 8.7
• Blocks: 13.1
• Faceoff Wins : 33.8
• Hits: 23.4
• Giveaways: 15.8
• Takeaways: 4.7

Last 10 Home Games

• Goals Powerplay: 0.4
• Shots: 24.8
• Goals Shorthanded: 0.1
• Penalties: 3.3
• Empty Net Goals: 0.1
• Penalty Minutes: 7.2
• Blocks: 11.3
• Faceoff Wins : 34.3
• Hits: 24.2
• Giveaways: 16.4
• Takeaways: 4.3

Injuries & Suspensions

Starting Lineups

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