Tampa Bay Lightning vs Toronto Maple Leafs Prediction, Picks & Odds | 08 Dec 2025

NHL Betting Preview: Lightning vs Maple Leafs

The Tampa Bay Lightning go up against the Toronto Maple Leafs at Scotiabank Arena, with face-off scheduled for 19:30 on Monday, December 8.

There is -114 on offer when it comes to the Lightning on the Moneyline and we’re expecting the visitors to beat the Maple Leafs. There’s plenty of juice when it comes to backing our prediction.

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Tampa Bay Lightning have lost in their previous three outings. In a recent home game at Benchmark International Arena, they were turned over 2-0 by New York Islanders. They registered 32 shots on goal, with goalie Jonas Johansson making 17 saves (.944).

Toronto Maple Leafs were beaten 2-1 (SO) at Scotiabank Arena in their last game, being turned over at home to Montreal Canadiens. Scott Laughton scored the only goal, with Dennis Hildeby recording 33 saves (.971).

Head-to-Head Statistics

It was a 4-3 win for the Leafs at Benchmark International Arena when they last played the Lightning. The Leafs have four straight wins against the Lightning. They’ve also claimed 7 victories in the past 10 head-to-head meetings.

Starting Goalies

Jonas Johansson (Expected)

Season	W-L-OTL:	GAA:	SV%:	SO:
24/25	5-4-0	2.9	.896	0
23/24	12-7-5	3.37	.890	2

Dennis Hildeby (Expected)

Season	W-L-OTL:	GAA:	SV%:	SO:
24/25	1-2-2	2.5	.927	0

7 wins and 3 losses, averaging 3.4 goals from 28.6 shots on goal, with a 13.9% powerplay efficiency. The Lightning have given up 1.8 goals from 26.5 shots, averaging 3.7 penalties with a penalty-killing efficiency of 91.9%.

Nikita Kucherov is the top points scorer with 18 points, 4 goals and 14 assists, with Brandon Hagel racking up 14 points, 10 goals and 4 assists, over the last 10 games. Goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy have a 1.34 goal against average with a .953 save percentage, including one shutout.

The Leafs have 5 wins, 3 losses and 2 overtime losses, averaging 3.0 goals from 26.4 shots on goal, with a 6.5% powerplay efficiency. They have been conceding 2.3 goals from 31.8 shots, averaging 3.4 penalties per game with a penalty-killing efficiency of 91.2%.

The top points scorer is Oliver Ekman-Larsson with 8 points, 2 goals and 6 assists, while William Nylander is next best after having 7 points, 3 goals and 4 assists. Goalie Joseph Woll have a 2.30 GAA with a .928 SV%.

Tampa Bay Lightning vs Toronto Maple Leafs Prediction & Picks

Prepare for Tampa Bay Lightning vs Toronto Maple Leafs with our expert betting guide featuring a trusted match prediction, a correct score recommendation and a well-crafted bet builder.

Game Prediction

The best pick for this NHL clash is to back Tampa Bay Lightning at -114. We think that the home team are vulnerable, so this is the best angle of attack with our wager.

We put solid research behind every hockey prediction, starting with recent form and a clear read on injuries. From there, key NHL stats and advanced metrics help complete the picture and support smarter betting decisions

Key Lightning vs Maple Leafs stats:

• Lightning have won 4 of their last 5 games on the road.
• Lightning have won 7 of their last 10 games.
• Maple Leafs have lost 4 of their last 5 games at home.
• Maple Leafs have lost their last 2 games at home.

Lightning Moneyline Probability

The top betting apps are estimating that there is a 53.2% likelihood of this pick winning. After careful examination, our analysts calculate this probability to be closer to 60%. It’s the reason why we are recommending this hockey bet.

There’s the opportunity to get bigger win odds for Tampa Bay by combining this with the number of goals that are scored. Match Winner & Total Goals is a popular betting option.

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Our Game Prediction

Lightning Moneyline @ -114 Watch Live Bet Now

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Correct Score Prediction

Lightning 4 - 2 Maple Leafs

We’ve got a correct score prediction which involves the Lightning winning 4-2. Odds of +1600 look appealing and we should get a run for our money here.

Latest Correct Score Odds

Score

Lightning

Maple Leafs

1-0

Lightning

+5500

Maple Leafs

+5500

2-0

Lightning

+5000

Maple Leafs

+5000

2-1

Lightning

+1500

Maple Leafs

+1500

3-0

Lightning

+3400

Maple Leafs

+3300

3-1

Lightning

+1900

Maple Leafs

+1800

3-2

Lightning

+900

Maple Leafs

+850

4-0

Lightning

+4500

Maple Leafs

+4000

4-1

Lightning

+1700

Maple Leafs

+1500

4-2

Lightning

+1600

Maple Leafs

+1500

4-3

Lightning

+1050

Maple Leafs

+1000

5-0

Lightning

+7500

Maple Leafs

+6600

5-1

Lightning

+2800

Maple Leafs

+2400

5-2

Lightning

+1800

Maple Leafs

+1600

5-3

Lightning

+2400

Maple Leafs

+2200

5-4

Lightning

+2000

Maple Leafs

+1900

6-0

Lightning

+12000

Maple Leafs

+10000

6-1

Lightning

+6600

Maple Leafs

+5500

6-2

Lightning

+3500

Maple Leafs

+2900

6-3

Lightning

+3000

Maple Leafs

+2800

6-4

Lightning

+5000

Maple Leafs

+4500

6-5

Lightning

+5000

Maple Leafs

+4500

7-0

Lightning

+5000

Maple Leafs

+14000

7-1

Lightning

+11000

Maple Leafs

+9000

7-2

Lightning

+9000

Maple Leafs

+7000

7-3

Lightning

+6000

Maple Leafs

+5500

7-4

Lightning

+7000

Maple Leafs

+6000

7-5

Lightning

+11000

Maple Leafs

+10000

7-6

Lightning

+11000

Maple Leafs

+11000

8-1

Lightning

+11000

Maple Leafs

+14000

8-2

Lightning

+11000

Maple Leafs

+12000

8-3

Lightning

+11000

Maple Leafs

+12500

8-4

Lightning

+12500

Maple Leafs

+11000

8-5

Lightning

+15000

Maple Leafs

+13000

View More

Tampa Bay Lightning vs Toronto Maple Leafs Odds

The odds and lines are updated on a frequent basis. You might therefore find that they are different to the ones listed for the above betting predictions.

If you have a strong view of the likely winner of this game, then the good news is that the sportsbooks afford the same probability when it comes to Toronto Maple Leafs and Tampa Bay Lightning. Take the -110 about the team that you prefer.

The puck line is 1.5 and the total goals line is 6.5. A wager on Totals allows bettors to use the latest data to good effect. If you’re going for Over 6.5, then the odds are +108.

The good news is that you can access hundreds of team props and game lines for every National Hockey League matchup. The best sportsbooks have a huge range of pre-game and in-game betting options.

Moneyline

Lightning

-110

Maple Leafs

-110

3-Way Moneyline

Lightning

+160

Tie

+330

Maple Leafs

+130

Puck Line

Lightning +1.5

-263

Maple Leafs -1.5

+210

Total Goals

Under 6.5

-132

Over 6.5

+108

Latest regular season and playoff games stats.

Tampa Bay Lightning Stats

Toronto Maple Leafs Stats

Moneyline

• 7 wins and 3 defeats in the last 10 games
• 7 wins and 3 defeats in the last 10 games on the road

Moneyline

• 5 wins and 5 defeats in the last 10 games
• 5 wins and 5 defeats in the last 10 home games

Puck Line

• -1.5 Betting Line: Have covered the -1.5 puck line in 6 of the last 10 games
• -1.5 Betting Line on the Road: Have covered the -1.5 puck line in 7 of the last 10 games on the road

Puck Line

• +1.5 Betting Line: Have covered the +1.5 puck line in 8 of the last 10 games
• +1.5 Betting Line at Home: Have covered the +1.5 puck line in 9 of the last 10 home games

Total Goals

• Game Totals: An average of 5.20 goals in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals on the Road: An average of 6.10 goals in the previous 10 games on the road
• Over 6.5: Covered in 3 of the previous 10 games
• Over 6.5 on the Road: Covered in 4 of the previous 10 games on the road
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 3.40 goals and allowed 1.80 goals in the last 10 games
• Team Totals on the Road: Have scored an average of 3.80 pts and allowed 2.30 goals in the last 10 games on the road

Total Goals

• Game Totals: An average of 5.40 goals in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals at Home: An average of 6.60 goals in the previous 10 home games
• Over 6.5: Covered in 2 of the previous 10 games
• Over 6.5 at Home: Covered in 7 of the previous 10 home games
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 3.00 goals and allowed 2.40 goals in the last 10 games
• Team Totals at Home: Have scored an average of 3.30 goals and allowed 3.30 goals in the last 10 home games

Team Stats - Avg/Game

Last 10 Games

• Goals Powerplay: 0.5
• Shots: 28.6
• Goals Shorthanded: 0.1
• Penalties: 3.7
• Empty Net Goals: 0.3
• Penalty Minutes: 9.6
• Blocks: 14.9
• Faceoff Wins : 24.8
• Hits: 17
• Giveaways: 15.3
• Takeaways: 4.7

Last 10 Games on the Road

• Goals Powerplay: 0.5
• Shots: 26.2
• Goals Shorthanded: 0.1
• Penalties: 4.5
• Empty Net Goals: 0.6
• Penalty Minutes: 10.9
• Blocks: 13.9
• Faceoff Wins : 24.9
• Hits: 16.7
• Giveaways: 14.8
• Takeaways: 3.9

Team Stats - Avg/Game

Last 10 Games

• Goals Powerplay: 0.2
• Shots: 26.4
• Goals Shorthanded: 0.1
• Penalties: 3.4
• Empty Net Goals: 0.2
• Penalty Minutes: 8.7
• Blocks: 13.1
• Faceoff Wins : 33.8
• Hits: 23.4
• Giveaways: 15.8
• Takeaways: 4.7

Last 10 Home Games

• Goals Powerplay: 0.4
• Shots: 24.8
• Goals Shorthanded: 0.1
• Penalties: 3.3
• Empty Net Goals: 0.1
• Penalty Minutes: 7.2
• Blocks: 11.3
• Faceoff Wins : 34.3
• Hits: 24.2
• Giveaways: 16.4
• Takeaways: 4.3

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Injuries & Suspensions

Starting Lineups

Both teams’ confirmed lineups will be published ahead of face-off. There is also the chance to look at the lineups from the previous 10 games.

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