Tampa Bay Lightning vs Toronto Maple Leafs Prediction, Picks & Odds | 07 Mar 2026

NHL Betting Preview: Lightning vs Maple Leafs

The Tampa Bay Lightning meet the Toronto Maple Leafs at Scotiabank Arena, with face-off scheduled for 19:00 on Saturday, March 7.

The Lightning should prove too strong for the Maple Leafs over 60 minutes. Our best prediction is to back the road team on the 3-Way Moneyline where a generous -100 can be landed.

Tampa Bay Lightning have now lost four straight games. On the road in their previous game, Winnipeg Jets won 4-1 at Canada Life Centre. Brayden Point was the solitary scorer after Lightning registered 27 shots.

Toronto Maple Leafs have now lost seven consecutive times at home. In their last game, they were beaten 6-2 on the road by New York Rangers at Madison Square Garden. Easton Cowan and Matias Maccelli scored one goal apiece.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The Lightning beat the Leafs in their last head-to-head encounter. It was a 4-2 scoreline at Benchmark International Arena. The past 10 games between the teams have seen the Leafs win seven times.

Starting Goalies

Andrei Vasilevskiy (Expected)

Season	W-L-OTL:	GAA:	SV%:	SO:
24/25	28-10-3	2.3	.913	2
23/24	30-20-2	2.9	.900	2

Anthony Stolarz (Expected)

Season	W-L-OTL:	GAA:	SV%:	SO:
24/25	7-8-3	3.4	.891	0
23/24	16-7-1	2.03	.925	2

6 wins and 4 losses, averaging 3.3 goals from 32.9 shots on goal, with a 16.1% powerplay efficiency. The Lightning have been giving up 3.2 goals from 30.0 shots, averaging 5.7 penalties with a penalty-killing efficiency of 87.7%.

Nikita Kucherov is the top points scorer with 18 points, 6 goals and 12 assists, with Darren Raddysh recording 12 points, 4 goals and 8 assists, in the past 10 games. Goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy have a 2.84 goal against average with a .902 save percentage, including one shutout.

The Leafs have 3 wins, 5 losses and 2 overtime losses, averaging 2.5 goals from 29.8 shots on goal, with a 24.1% powerplay efficiency. They have conceded 3.6 goals from 32.7 shots, averaging 3.2 penalties per game with a penalty-killing efficiency of 87.5%.

The top points scorer is William Nylander with 10 points, 4 goals and 6 assists, while Matias Maccelli is next best after registering 7 points, 5 goals and 2 assists. Goalie Anthony Stolarz have a 2.75 GAA with a .915 SV%.

Tampa Bay Lightning vs Toronto Maple Leafs Prediction & Picks

This Tampa Bay Lightning vs Toronto Maple Leafs betting breakdown features a main match prediction, a correct score insight and a sharply constructed bet builder to guide your wagers.

Game Prediction

There is -100 available when it comes to Tampa Bay Lightning on the 60-minute line. We believe that the visitors has a strong chance of winning this NHL encounter and the odds makes plenty of appeal.

We keep a close eye on the NHL team news and our handicappers stay sharp by tracking the latest form and lineups. You’ll also find a full set of stats that offer valuable insight and help shape smarter hockey predictions ahead of the action.

Key Lightning vs Maple Leafs stats:

• Lightning have won 14 of their last 20 games.
• Lightning have won 6 of their last 10 games.
• Maple Leafs have lost their last 7 games at home.
• Maple Leafs have lost 14 of their last 20 games.

Lightning 3-Way Moneyline Probability

According to the latest odds, our pick has a 50% chance of winning. After careful examination, our team calculate this probability to be closer to 60%. The wager can be recommended for this precise reason.

Fancy Tampa Bay to win but want more juice in the odds? Why not take a look at the Puck Line and consider them to cover one of the available lines.

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Our Game Prediction

Lightning 3-Way Moneyline @ -100 Watch Live Bet Now

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Disclosure: This preview contains affiliate links; we may earn a commission at no extra cost to you. T&Cs apply. We only recommend licensed and regulated operators. See our Editorial Policy. Pick odds and lines reflect the price available at the time of publication (Mar 6, 23:56). Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Correct Score Prediction

Lightning 5 - 2 Maple Leafs

We’ve found an attractive bet at odds of +1300 and it involves the Lightning winning 5-2. We like a wager on correct score as there’s the chance to bank a bigger return.

Latest Correct Score Odds

Score

Lightning

Maple Leafs

1-0

Lightning

+5500

Maple Leafs

+6000

2-0

Lightning

+4500

Maple Leafs

+6000

2-1

Lightning

+1400

Maple Leafs

+1700

3-0

Lightning

+2900

Maple Leafs

+4500

3-1

Lightning

+1700

Maple Leafs

+2400

3-2

Lightning

+800

Maple Leafs

+1000

4-0

Lightning

+3300

Maple Leafs

+6600

4-1

Lightning

+1300

Maple Leafs

+2400

4-2

Lightning

+1300

Maple Leafs

+2000

4-3

Lightning

+900

Maple Leafs

+1150

5-0

Lightning

+5500

Maple Leafs

+11000

5-1

Lightning

+1900

Maple Leafs

+4000

5-2

Lightning

+1300

Maple Leafs

+2400

5-3

Lightning

+1900

Maple Leafs

+2800

5-4

Lightning

+1700

Maple Leafs

+2000

6-0

Lightning

+7500

Maple Leafs

+14000

6-1

Lightning

+4000

Maple Leafs

+9000

6-2

Lightning

+2400

Maple Leafs

+4500

6-3

Lightning

+2200

Maple Leafs

+4000

6-4

Lightning

+4000

Maple Leafs

+5500

6-5

Lightning

+4000

Maple Leafs

+5000

7-1

Lightning

+6600

Maple Leafs

+14000

7-2

Lightning

+5500

Maple Leafs

+12000

7-3

Lightning

+4500

Maple Leafs

+7500

7-4

Lightning

+5000

Maple Leafs

+7500

7-5

Lightning

+9000

Maple Leafs

+11000

7-6

Lightning

+10000

Maple Leafs

+11000

8-4

Lightning

+9000

Maple Leafs

+14000

8-5

Lightning

+12000

Maple Leafs

+15000

View More

Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Tampa Bay Lightning vs Toronto Maple Leafs Odds

The odds and lines below are updated regularly and may differ from the prices shown in our picks, which are captured at the time of publication.

The sportsbooks’ betting odds have Tampa Bay Lightning as -175 favorites for this game, implying that they are 64% likely to win. The market suggests that Toronto Maple Leafs are least likely to win at +146.

The puck line is 1.5 and the total goals line is 6.5. A Totals bet relates to the number of goals that will be scored overall. If you want to wager Over 6.5, there are odds of -100.

From team props to game lines, National Hockey League wagering comes with no shortage of options. Head to the best betting apps to discover the market that fits your read on the game.

Moneyline

Lightning

-175

Maple Leafs

+146

3-Way Moneyline

Lightning

-110

Tie

+320

Maple Leafs

+245

Puck Line

Lightning -1.5

+142

Maple Leafs +1.5

-175

Total Goals

Under 6.5

-122

Over 6.5

-100

Latest regular season and playoff games stats.

Tampa Bay Lightning Stats

Toronto Maple Leafs Stats

Moneyline

• 6 wins and 4 defeats in the last 10 games
• 5 wins and 5 defeats in the last 10 games on the road

Moneyline

• 3 wins and 7 defeats in the last 10 games
• 3 wins and 7 defeats in the last 10 home games

Puck Line

• -1.5 Betting Line: Have covered the -1.5 puck line in 4 of the last 10 games
• -1.5 Betting Line on the Road: Have covered the -1.5 puck line in 3 of the last 10 games on the road

Puck Line

• +1.5 Betting Line: Have covered the +1.5 puck line in 5 of the last 10 games
• +1.5 Betting Line at Home: Have covered the +1.5 puck line in 5 of the last 10 home games

Total Goals

• Game Totals: An average of 6.60 goals in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals on the Road: An average of 6.40 goals in the previous 10 games on the road
• Over 6.5: Covered in 5 of the previous 10 games
• Over 6.5 on the Road: Covered in 3 of the previous 10 games on the road
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 3.40 goals and allowed 3.20 goals in the last 10 games
• Team Totals on the Road: Have scored an average of 3.30 pts and allowed 3.10 goals in the last 10 games on the road

Total Goals

• Game Totals: An average of 6.40 goals in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals at Home: An average of 7.00 goals in the previous 10 home games
• Over 6.5: Covered in 5 of the previous 10 games
• Over 6.5 at Home: Covered in 5 of the previous 10 home games
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 2.60 goals and allowed 3.80 goals in the last 10 games
• Team Totals at Home: Have scored an average of 3.10 goals and allowed 3.90 goals in the last 10 home games

Team Stats - Avg/Game

Last 10 Games

• Goals Powerplay: 0.9
• Shots: 32.9
• Goals Shorthanded: 0
• Penalties: 5.7
• Empty Net Goals: 0.1
• Penalty Minutes: 19.5
• Blocks: 13.1
• Faceoff Wins : 30
• Hits: 22.6
• Giveaways: 14.5
• Takeaways: 4.2

Last 10 Games on the Road

• Goals Powerplay: 0.7
• Shots: 28.3
• Goals Shorthanded: 0
• Penalties: 4
• Empty Net Goals: 0.1
• Penalty Minutes: 12.9
• Blocks: 12.7
• Faceoff Wins : 24.6
• Hits: 17.9
• Giveaways: 15.8
• Takeaways: 4.3

Team Stats - Avg/Game

Last 10 Games

• Goals Powerplay: 0.7
• Shots: 29.8
• Goals Shorthanded: 0
• Penalties: 3.2
• Empty Net Goals: 0.2
• Penalty Minutes: 7.8
• Blocks: 11.9
• Faceoff Wins : 27.9
• Hits: 19.6
• Giveaways: 15.2
• Takeaways: 4.9

Last 10 Home Games

• Goals Powerplay: 0.6
• Shots: 26.9
• Goals Shorthanded: 0
• Penalties: 3.5
• Empty Net Goals: 0.1
• Penalty Minutes: 8.7
• Blocks: 12
• Faceoff Wins : 30.9
• Hits: 23.5
• Giveaways: 14
• Takeaways: 4.6

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Injuries & Suspensions

Starting Lineups

Both teams’ confirmed lineups will be published ahead of face-off. There is also the chance to look at the lineups from the previous 10 games.

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