Toronto Maple Leafs vs Buffalo Sabres Prediction, Picks & Odds | 15 Apr 2025

Leafs and Sabres to Cancel Each Other Out

The Maple Leafs go up against the Sabres and we’re predicting the teams to fall short of the 6.5 goals total. We are therefore backing the Under selection at -125.

Teams’ Last H2H Saw 6-3 Leafs Win

Toronto Maple Leafs have won their previous three games. A 4-1 triumph recently occurred on the road at Lenovo Center when playing Carolina Hurricanes. Auston Matthews was one of four different players on the scoresheet. Goalie Joseph Woll was red hot in the net, stopping 25 shots (.962).

Buffalo Sabres have won seven home games on the spin. On the road at Amalie Arena in their last game, they were beaten 7-4 by Tampa Bay Lightning. There were four different goalscorers including Jiri Kulich.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The scoreline was 6-3 in favor of the Leafs when they last played the Sabres, with the encounter taking place at KeyBank Center. The Leafs have enjoyed four consecutive victories against the Sabres. They’ve landed 6 wins from the past 10 head-to-head meetings.

Starting Goalies

Anthony Stolarz (Confirmed)

Season	W-L-OTL:	GAA:	SV%:	SO:
24/25	2-4-1	3.3	.885	0
23/24	16-7-1	2.03	.925	2

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (Confirmed)

Season	W-L-OTL:	GAA:	SV%:	SO:
24/25	0-0-1	3.9	.818	0
23/24	27-22-4	2.57	.910	5

8 wins, 1 loss and 1 overtime loss, averaging 3.6 goals from 27.1 shots on goal, with a 15.2% powerplay efficiency. The Leafs have given up 1.9 goals from 28.5 shots, averaging 3.8 penalties with a penalty-killing efficiency of 84.2%.

Mitchell Marner is the top points scorer with 14 points, 4 goals and 10 assists, with John Tavares racking up 13 points, 8 goals and 5 assists, in the past 10 games. Goalie Anthony Stolarz have a 1.32 goal against average with a .949 save percentage, including two shutouts.

The Sabres have 6 wins, 3 losses and 1 overtime loss, averaging 4.3 goals from 28.3 shots on goal, with a 21.2% powerplay efficiency. They have been conceding 3.4 goals from 29.3 shots, averaging 3.4 penalties per game with a penalty-killing efficiency of 82.4%.

The top points scorer is Alex Tuch with 14 points, 8 goals and 6 assists, while Rasmus Dahlin is next in line after registering 13 points, 4 goals and 9 assists. Goalie James Reimer have a 2.98 GAA with a .899 SV%, including one shutout.

Toronto Maple Leafs vs Buffalo Sabres Prediction & Picks

Game Prediction

We’re going under the line in this NHL clash. Our pick is available at -125 and we’re expecting the teams to find the net six times or less.

The NHL picks stem from knowing the team news and the latest form for each franchise. We work hard to unearth the most pertinent team, player and goalie stats which can also act as a guide.

Key Maple Leafs vs Sabres stats:

• The 6.5 line hasn’t been covered in 4 of the last 5 Maple Leafs games.
• The 6.5 line hasn’t been covered in 7 of the last 10 Maple Leafs games.
• The 6.5 line hasn’t been covered in the last 2 Maple Leafs games this season.
• The 6.5 line hasn’t been covered in 6 of the last 10 Sabres games at home.
• The 6.5 line hasn’t been covered in 3 of the last 5 Sabres games.

Under 6.5 Probability

The sportsbooks make it a 55.6% chance that our pick is settled as a winner. Based on our in-depth research, we calculate the actual probability to be 60-65%. It is the reason why we are recommending this hockey wager.

Bettors looking for more juice from their Unders bet can wager on Match Winner & Total Goals. Here you simply combine goals with the franchise that will win.

Best Bet

Under 6.5 Goals @ -125 Bet Now

BetMGM Promo Up To $1500 in Bonus Bets Get Bonus T&C apply. Gamble responsibly 18+

Gamble responsibly 18+. All odds are correct at time of publishing and are subject to change. To use the Bookmaker Live Streaming services you will need to be logged in and have a funded account or to have placed a bet in the last 24 hours. Geo-restrictions apply.

Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: Alex Tuch Under 2.5 Shots -156

Alex Tuch (Sabres) has had Under 2.5 shots on goal in 8 of the past 10 games. There’s every chance that the same thing will happen here, with odds of -156 that he doesn’t cover the Shots on Goal line.

Latest Alex Tuch Player Prop Odds

Goals

Anytime

+190

First

+1100

Shots on Goal

Over 2.5

+120

Under 2.5

-156

T&C apply. Gamble responsibly 18+

Correct Score Prediction

Maple Leafs 2 - 4 Sabres

We’re predicting the Sabres to land a 4-2 victory and this is available at +1700. The correct score betting option provides plenty of fun and entertainment.

Latest Correct Score Odds

Score

Maple Leafs

Sabres

1-0

Maple Leafs

+6000

Sabres

+6000

2-0

Maple Leafs

+5000

Sabres

+5000

2-1

Maple Leafs

+1600

Sabres

+1700

3-0

Maple Leafs

+3000

Sabres

+4000

3-1

Maple Leafs

+1800

Sabres

+2000

3-2

Maple Leafs

+850

Sabres

+950

4-0

Maple Leafs

+3500

Sabres

+5500

4-1

Maple Leafs

+1400

Sabres

+2000

4-2

Maple Leafs

+1400

Sabres

+1700

4-3

Maple Leafs

+1000

Sabres

+1100

5-0

Maple Leafs

+6000

Sabres

+9000

5-1

Maple Leafs

+2200

Sabres

+3400

5-2

Maple Leafs

+1400

Sabres

+2000

5-3

Maple Leafs

+2000

Sabres

+2400

5-4

Maple Leafs

+1800

Sabres

+2000

6-0

Maple Leafs

+9000

Sabres

+13000

6-1

Maple Leafs

+4500

Sabres

+7500

6-2

Maple Leafs

+2500

Sabres

+4000

6-3

Maple Leafs

+2400

Sabres

+3500

6-4

Maple Leafs

+4000

Sabres

+5000

6-5

Maple Leafs

+4500

Sabres

+4500

7-1

Maple Leafs

+7500

Sabres

+12500

7-2

Maple Leafs

+6000

Sabres

+10000

7-3

Maple Leafs

+4500

Sabres

+7000

7-4

Maple Leafs

+5500

Sabres

+7000

7-5

Maple Leafs

+9000

Sabres

+10000

7-6

Maple Leafs

+10000

Sabres

+11000

8-4

Maple Leafs

+10000

Sabres

+13000

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Toronto Maple Leafs vs Buffalo Sabres Odds

The odds and lines are updated on a frequent basis. You might therefore find that they are different to the ones listed for the above betting predictions.

Books Anticipating a Tight Affair

Toronto Maple Leafs are regarded as having a 63% chance of winning this game according to the latest betting odds. The sportsbooks have priced them up at -167. If you’re looking for an alternative angle, Buffalo Sabres are trading at +138.

The puck line is 1.5, with the total goals line at 6.5. A wager on Totals allows bettors to use the latest NHL data to good effect. If you want to wager Over 6.5, there are odds of -100.

Wagering on Race to 3 Goals allows bettors to back favorites Leafs at -105. If you’re not sure that either team can make that total, there’s the chance to secure odds of +400.

The betting sites offer a wide range of game lines and team props for every National Hockey League clash. Make sure you look through all the available options before deciding which bet to place.

Moneyline

Maple Leafs

-167

Sabres

+138

3-Way Moneyline

Maple Leafs

+107

Tie

+340

Sabres

+190

Puck Line

Maple Leafs -1.5

+142

Sabres +1.5

-175

Total Goals

Under 6.5

-122

Over 6.5

-100

Auston Matthews Favorite to Light the Lamp First

Favorite Auston Matthews is priced at +650 to be the first player to light the lamp. There’s also the opportunity to back him to score at anytime at odds of -104.

Player Goals

Auston Matthews (Maple Leafs)

First

-104

Anytime

+650

William Nylander (Maple Leafs)

First

+132

Anytime

+850

Tage Thompson (Sabres)

First

+148

Anytime

+900

John Tavares (Maple Leafs)

First

+160

Anytime

+950

Mitchell Marner (Maple Leafs)

First

+185

Anytime

+1100

Alex Tuch (Sabres)

First

+190

Anytime

+1100

Matthew Knies (Maple Leafs)

First

+195

Anytime

+1100

John-Jason Peterka (Sabres)

First

+210

Anytime

+1200

Josh Norris (Sabres)

First

+260

Anytime

+1400

Jason Zucker (Sabres)

First

+260

Anytime

+1400

Bobby McMann (Maple Leafs)

First

+310

Anytime

+1600

Ryan McLeod (Sabres)

First

+310

Anytime

+1600

Jiri Kulich (Sabres)

First

+310

Anytime

+1600

Jack Quinn (Sabres)

First

+335

Anytime

+1700

Max Domi (Maple Leafs)

First

+360

Anytime

+1800

Rasmus Dahlin (Sabres)

First

+360

Anytime

+1800

Scott Laughton (Maple Leafs)

First

+390

Anytime

+1900

Pontus Holmberg (Maple Leafs)

First

+390

Anytime

+1900

Isak Rosén (Sabres)

First

+390

Anytime

+1900

Nicholas Robertson (Maple Leafs)

First

+390

Anytime

+1900

Zach Benson (Sabres)

First

+390

Anytime

+1900

Noah Östlund (Sabres)

First

+410

Anytime

+2000

Calle Järnkrok (Maple Leafs)

First

+430

Anytime

+2000

Alexander Steeves (Maple Leafs)

First

+430

Anytime

+2000

Player Shots

Auston Matthews (Maple Leafs)

Over 3.5

+105

Under 3.5

-137

William Nylander (Maple Leafs)

Over 2.5

-118

Under 2.5

-110

Tage Thompson (Sabres)

Over 2.5

-185

Under 2.5

+140

Alex Tuch (Sabres)

Over 2.5

+120

Under 2.5

-156

John-Jason Peterka (Sabres)

Over 2.5

+150

Under 2.5

-200

Rasmus Dahlin (Sabres)

Over 2.5

-110

Under 2.5

-118

Mitchell Marner (Maple Leafs)

Over 1.5

-192

Under 1.5

+145

Matthew Knies (Maple Leafs)

Over 1.5

-156

Under 1.5

+120

Bobby McMann (Maple Leafs)

Over 1.5

-149

Under 1.5

+115

Jiri Kulich (Sabres)

Over 1.5

-164

Under 1.5

+125

Micro Betting

For those looking to enjoy a thrilling in-game wager, then NHL micro betting could be up your street. You are now able to bet on the Next Goal, Next Goalscorer and what will happen within the next 10 minutes.

Last 5 & H2H

Latest regular season and playoff games stats.

Toronto Maple Leafs Stats

Buffalo Sabres Stats

Moneyline

• 4 wins and 6 defeats in the last 10 games
• 6 wins and 4 defeats in the last 10 games on the road

Moneyline

• 4 wins and 6 defeats in the last 10 games
• 7 wins and 3 defeats in the last 10 home games

Puck Line

• -1.5 Betting Line: Have covered the -1.5 puck line in 3 of the last 10 games
• -1.5 Betting Line on the Road: Have covered the -1.5 puck line in 4 of the last 10 games on the road

Puck Line

• +1.5 Betting Line: Have covered the +1.5 puck line in 4 of the last 10 games
• +1.5 Betting Line at Home: Have covered the +1.5 puck line in 7 of the last 10 home games

Total Goals

• Game Totals: An average of 6.50 goals in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals on the Road: An average of 5.60 goals in the previous 10 games on the road
• Over 6.5: Covered in 7 of the previous 10 games
• Over 6.5 on the Road: Covered in 4 of the previous 10 games on the road
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 2.80 goals and allowed 3.70 goals in the last 10 games
• Team Totals on the Road: Have scored an average of 3.10 pts and allowed 2.50 goals in the last 10 games on the road

Total Goals

• Game Totals: An average of 6.30 goals in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals at Home: An average of 5.90 goals in the previous 10 home games
• Over 6.5: Covered in 3 of the previous 10 games
• Over 6.5 at Home: Covered in 3 of the previous 10 home games
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 2.80 goals and allowed 3.50 goals in the last 10 games
• Team Totals at Home: Have scored an average of 3.30 goals and allowed 2.60 goals in the last 10 home games

Team Stats - Avg/Game

Last 10 Games

• Goals Powerplay: 0.2
• Shots: 26.6
• Goals Shorthanded: 0
• Penalties: 4
• Empty Net Goals: 0.4
• Penalty Minutes: 9.1
• Blocks: 19
• Faceoff Wins : 30.1
• Hits: 30.2
• Giveaways: 17.6
• Takeaways: 3.9

Last 10 Games on the Road

• Goals Powerplay: 0.4
• Shots: 25.4
• Goals Shorthanded: 0
• Penalties: 4.3
• Empty Net Goals: 0.2
• Penalty Minutes: 10
• Blocks: 20.7
• Faceoff Wins : 31.6
• Hits: 31
• Giveaways: 14.8
• Takeaways: 4.4

Team Stats - Avg/Game

Last 10 Games

• Goals Powerplay: 0.7
• Shots: 29.9
• Goals Shorthanded: 0.2
• Penalties: 4.1
• Empty Net Goals: 0.2
• Penalty Minutes: 9
• Blocks: 15.8
• Faceoff Wins : 27.5
• Hits: 19.6
• Giveaways: 15.4
• Takeaways: 4.6

Last 10 Home Games

• Goals Powerplay: 0.7
• Shots: 31.3
• Goals Shorthanded: 0.3
• Penalties: 3.9
• Empty Net Goals: 0.3
• Penalty Minutes: 8.6
• Blocks: 15.3
• Faceoff Wins : 26.6
• Hits: 18.4
• Giveaways: 15.4
• Takeaways: 5.4

Team News

Toronto Maple Leafs Player Stats & Roster

#	Player	GP	MIN	G	A	P	+/-
88	William Nylander	7	19.76	2	11	13	3
91	John Tavares	7	17.49	4	5	9	2
23	Matthew Knies	7	20.63	2	6	8	1

44	Morgan Rielly	7	22.19	2	4	6	-4
34	Auston Matthews	7	21.97	4	2	6	3
95	Oliver Ekman-Larsson	7	19.47	1	4	5	1
19	Calle Jaernkrok	6	11.53	3	0	3	-2
74	Bobby McMann	7	15.17	2	1	3	-1
18	Steven Lorentz	4	9.4	0	2	2	2
63	Matias Maccelli	7	13.81	1	1	2	3
55	Nicolas Roy	7	12.41	1	1	2	-3
22	Jake McCabe	7	21.1	1	1	2	4
2	Simon Benoit	7	17.5	0	1	1	2
89	Nick Robertson	7	11.01	0	1	1	-4
81	Dakota Joshua	7	11.34	0	1	1	-6
11	Max Domi	7	13.41	1	0	1	-4
8	Christopher Tanev	7	17.7	0	1	1	3
53	Easton Cowan	4	13.2	0	1	1	2
25	Brandon Carlo	7	18.54	0	0	0	-1

#	Goalies	GP	GAA	SV%
	Cayden Primeau	1	4	0.867
41	Anthony Stolarz	6	3.17	0.889

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Buffalo Sabres Player Stats & Roster

#	Player	GP	MIN	G	A	P	+/-
91	Josh Doan	7	15.51	3	3	6	1
9	Zach Benson	4	19.13	0	6	6	0
22	Jack Quinn	7	14.94	3	3	6	1

17	Jason Zucker	7	14.6	4	1	5	-5
26	Rasmus Dahlin	7	25.26	0	5	5	-7
71	Ryan McLeod	7	18.19	2	2	4	-2
89	Alex Tuch	7	20.24	1	3	4	1
72	Tage Thompson	7	19.11	1	3	4	-7
25	Owen Power	6	22.3	1	1	2	-3
48	Tyson Kozak	6	11.22	2	0	2	2
4	Bowen Byram	7	24.07	0	2	2	0
20	Jiri Kulich	7	16.4	2	0	2	-7
23	Mattias Samuelsson	5	19.56	0	2	2	-1
19	Peyton Krebs	7	12.67	0	2	2	-2
21	Conor Timmins	7	20.54	0	2	2	-3
78	Jacob Bryson	5	9.46	0	1	1	1
44	Josh Dunne	2	6.5	0	0	0	0
13	Josh Norris	1	18.9	0	0	0	0
	Zach Metsa	2	9.25	0	0	0	1
33	Ryan Johnson	3	9	0	0	0	0
29	Beck Malenstyn	6	10.42	0	0	0	-2
15	Justin Danforth	4	11.7	0	0	0	-2
55	Mason Geertsen	4	4.2	0	0	0	-1
36	Noah Oestlund	1	10	0	0	0	2

#	Goalies	GP	GAA	SV%
34	Alex Lyon	6	2.55	0.924
	Colten Ellis	1	2	0.931

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Injuries & Suspensions

Starting Lineups