Toronto Maple Leafs vs Detroit Red Wings Prediction, Picks & Odds | 28 Dec 2025

NHL Betting Preview: Maple Leafs vs Red Wings

The Toronto Maple Leafs clash with the Detroit Red Wings at Little Caesars Arena, with face-off scheduled for 19:00 on Sunday, December 28.

We should take advantage of the -123 when it comes to the Maple Leafs and the Red Wings going Under 6.5. These odds look to be on the generous side.

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Toronto Maple Leafs have lost three straight road games. In their previous appearance, they recorded a 7-5 home win over Ottawa Senators at Scotiabank Arena. Max Domi landed 3 points, all of them were assists.

Detroit Red Wings have enjoyed two home wins in a row. They were defeated in their last game when losing 5-2 on the road against Carolina Hurricanes. Andrew Copp and Michael Rasmussen scored one goal each.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The Red Wings have claimed victories in the last two encounters against the Leafs. At Little Caesars Arena, the scoreline was 6-3 and then we saw 3-2 at Scotiabank Arena. We’ve seen six Red Wings wins in the past 10 meetings between the teams.

Starting Goalies

Dennis Hildeby (Expected)

Season	W-L-OTL:	GAA:	SV%:	SO:
24/25	2-5-3	3	.908	1

Cam Talbot (Expected)

Season	W-L-OTL:	GAA:	SV%:	SO:
24/25	10-6-2	3	.887	0
23/24	27-20-4	2.5	.913	3

4 wins, 4 losses and 2 overtime losses, averaging 2.8 goals from 26.9 shots on goal, with a 12.1% powerplay efficiency. The Leafs have given up 3.4 goals from 30.5 shots, averaging 2.6 penalties with a penalty-killing efficiency of 92.3%.

William Nylander is the top points scorer with 9 points, 3 goals and 6 assists, with Auston Matthews recording 7 points, 4 goals and 3 assists, in the past 10 games. Goalie Dennis Hildeby have a 2.87 goal against average with a .904 save percentage, including one shutout.

The Red Wings have 7 wins and 3 losses, averaging 3.1 goals from 26.4 shots on goal, with a 25.0% powerplay efficiency. They have conceded 2.5 goals from 29.6 shots, averaging 2.8 penalties per game with a penalty-killing efficiency of 89.3%.

The top points scorer is Alex DeBrincat with 10 points, 6 goals and 4 assists, while Lucas Raymond is next in line after registering 10 points, 1 goal and 9 assists. Goalie John Gibson have a 2.01 GAA with a .932 SV%, including two shutouts.

Toronto Maple Leafs vs Detroit Red Wings Prediction & Picks

Get ready for Toronto Maple Leafs vs Detroit Red Wings with all the betting angles covered, from an expert match prediction and correct score advice to player props and a custom bet builder.

Game Prediction

We’re not anticipating the net to be found frequently and that directs us to an Unders pick on the total goals line. Let’s grab the -123 that this outcome happens in the NHL game.

We put solid research behind every hockey prediction, starting with recent form and a clear read on injuries. From there, key NHL stats and advanced metrics help complete the picture and support smarter betting decisions

Key Maple Leafs vs Red Wings stats:

• The 6.5 line hasn’t been covered in 4 of the last 5 Maple Leafs games on the road.
• The 6.5 line hasn’t been covered in 7 of the last 10 Maple Leafs games on the road.
• The 6.5 line hasn’t been covered in 6 of the last 10 Red Wings games.
• The 6.5 line hasn’t been covered in 3 of the last 5 Red Wings games at home.

Under 6.5 Probability

According to the top betting sites, there’s a 55.2% chance of our pick landing a return. After careful examination, our experts have this probability somewhere between 60-65%. The bet can be recommended for this precise reason.

For a larger payout, many bettors will include their Under pick on the Totals with other selections. A Bet Builder is perfect for combining all your predictions.

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Our Game Prediction

Under 6.5 Goals @ -123 Watch Live Bet Now

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Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: John Tavares Under 2.5 Shots -141

John Tavares (Maple Leafs) has finished with Under 2.5 shots on goal in 9 of the past 10 games. When it comes to Shots on Goal, we’re expecting him to fall short and you can currently land odds of -141.

Latest John Tavares Player Prop Odds

Goals

Anytime

+220

First

+1300

Assists

Over 0.5

+150

Under 0.5

-208

Shots on Goal

Over 2.5

+105

Under 2.5

-141

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Correct Score Prediction

Maple Leafs 4 - 2 Red Wings

One bet that has caught our eye is the Maple Leafs to claim a 4-2 correct score win. This selection is available at +1700 meaning that a winning selection will yield a nice return.

Latest Correct Score Odds

Score

Maple Leafs

Red Wings

1-0

Maple Leafs

+6000

Red Wings

+5500

2-0

Maple Leafs

+5500

Red Wings

+5000

2-1

Maple Leafs

+1600

Red Wings

+1500

3-0

Maple Leafs

+4000

Red Wings

+3300

3-1

Maple Leafs

+2200

Red Wings

+1800

3-2

Maple Leafs

+900

Red Wings

+850

4-0

Maple Leafs

+5000

Red Wings

+4000

4-1

Maple Leafs

+1900

Red Wings

+1500

4-2

Maple Leafs

+1700

Red Wings

+1500

4-3

Maple Leafs

+1050

Red Wings

+950

5-0

Maple Leafs

+9000

Red Wings

+6600

5-1

Maple Leafs

+3300

Red Wings

+2200

5-2

Maple Leafs

+1900

Red Wings

+1500

5-3

Maple Leafs

+2400

Red Wings

+2000

5-4

Maple Leafs

+2000

Red Wings

+1800

6-0

Maple Leafs

+13000

Red Wings

+9000

6-1

Maple Leafs

+7500

Red Wings

+5000

6-2

Maple Leafs

+4000

Red Wings

+2800

6-3

Maple Leafs

+3300

Red Wings

+2500

6-4

Maple Leafs

+5000

Red Wings

+4000

6-5

Maple Leafs

+4500

Red Wings

+4500

7-0

Maple Leafs

+4500

Red Wings

+14000

7-1

Maple Leafs

+12000

Red Wings

+8000

7-2

Maple Leafs

+10000

Red Wings

+6600

7-3

Maple Leafs

+6600

Red Wings

+5000

7-4

Maple Leafs

+7000

Red Wings

+5500

7-5

Maple Leafs

+10000

Red Wings

+9000

7-6

Maple Leafs

+11000

Red Wings

+10000

8-1

Maple Leafs

+11000

Red Wings

+13000

8-2

Maple Leafs

+11000

Red Wings

+11000

8-3

Maple Leafs

+11000

Red Wings

+12000

8-4

Maple Leafs

+12500

Red Wings

+10000

8-5

Maple Leafs

+14000

Red Wings

+12500

View More

Toronto Maple Leafs vs Detroit Red Wings Odds

The odds and lines are updated on a frequent basis. You might therefore find that they are different to the ones listed for the above betting predictions.

With the sportsbooks giving them a 60% probability of winning this game, Detroit Red Wings might be a popular parlay pick. That is reflected in their -152 Moneyline betting odds. The market suggests that Toronto Maple Leafs are least likely to win at +126.

The puck line is calculated to be 1.5, while total goals comes in at 6.5. Hockey fans love the chance to get an alternative angle by going for a Totals wager. If you want to wager Over 6.5, there are odds of -100.

There’s no shortage of betting options, with a wide range of game lines and team props offered for every matchup. Explore the top NHL sportsbooks to find the picks that deliver the best value.

Moneyline

Maple Leafs

+126

Red Wings

-152

3-Way Moneyline

Maple Leafs

+180

Tie

+320

Red Wings

+118

Puck Line

Maple Leafs +1.5

-192

Red Wings -1.5

+156

Total Goals

Under 6.5

-122

Over 6.5

-100

Auston Matthews is available at +135 when it comes to Anytime Goalscorer. The favorite is now priced at odds of +900 to find the net first.

Player Goals

Auston Matthews (Maple Leafs)

First

+135

Anytime

+900

Dylan Larkin (Red Wings)

First

+140

Anytime

+900

Alex DeBrincat (Red Wings)

First

+145

Anytime

+1000

Lucas Raymond (Red Wings)

First

+175

Anytime

+1200

John Tavares (Maple Leafs)

First

+220

Anytime

+1300

Matthew Knies (Maple Leafs)

First

+250

Anytime

+1500

Emmitt Finnie (Red Wings)

First

+270

Anytime

+1700

Easton Cowan (Maple Leafs)

First

+320

Anytime

+2000

James van Riemsdyk (Red Wings)

First

+350

Anytime

+1900

John Leonard (Red Wings)

First

+375

Anytime

+2200

Andrew Copp (Red Wings)

First

+425

Anytime

+2500

Max Domi (Maple Leafs)

First

+425

Anytime

+2500

Bobby McMann (Maple Leafs)

First

+425

Anytime

+2500

Matias Maccelli (Maple Leafs)

First

+450

Anytime

+2500

Moritz Seider (Red Wings)

First

+500

Anytime

+2800

J.T. Compher (Red Wings)

First

+525

Anytime

+2500

Nicholas Robertson (Maple Leafs)

First

+575

Anytime

+3300

Marco Kasper (Red Wings)

First

+600

Anytime

+3300

Nicolas Roy (Maple Leafs)

First

+600

Anytime

+3500

Nate Danielson (Red Wings)

First

+625

Anytime

+3300

Mason Appleton (Red Wings)

First

+675

Anytime

+3500

Michael Rasmussen (Red Wings)

First

+700

Anytime

+3500

Axel Sandin Pellikka (Red Wings)

First

+800

Anytime

+4000

Morgan Rielly (Maple Leafs)

First

+800

Anytime

+4000

Oliver Ekman-Larsson (Maple Leafs)

First

+825

Anytime

+4000

Dakota Joshua (Maple Leafs)

First

+900

Anytime

+4500

Scott Laughton (Maple Leafs)

First

+900

Anytime

+4500

Simon Edvinsson (Red Wings)

First

+950

Anytime

+5000

Steven Lorentz (Maple Leafs)

First

+1050

Anytime

+5500

Ben Chiarot (Red Wings)

First

+1350

Anytime

+5500

Player Assists

Moritz Seider (Red Wings)

Over 0.5

-105

Under 0.5

-125

Lucas Raymond (Red Wings)

Over 0.5

-105

Under 0.5

-125

Auston Matthews (Maple Leafs)

Over 0.5

+140

Under 0.5

-189

Dylan Larkin (Red Wings)

Over 0.5

+140

Under 0.5

-189

Alex DeBrincat (Red Wings)

Over 0.5

+140

Under 0.5

-189

Morgan Rielly (Maple Leafs)

Over 0.5

+140

Under 0.5

-189

Matthew Knies (Maple Leafs)

Over 0.5

+145

Under 0.5

-189

John Tavares (Maple Leafs)

Over 0.5

+150

Under 0.5

-208

Emmitt Finnie (Red Wings)

Over 0.5

+210

Under 0.5

-294

Oliver Ekman-Larsson (Maple Leafs)

Over 0.5

+210

Under 0.5

-286

Andrew Copp (Red Wings)

Over 0.5

+220

Under 0.5

-303

Player Shots

Auston Matthews (Maple Leafs)

Over 3.5

+130

Under 3.5

-175

Alex DeBrincat (Red Wings)

Over 3.5

-100

Under 3.5

-135

Dylan Larkin (Red Wings)

Over 2.5

-125

Under 2.5

-105

Lucas Raymond (Red Wings)

Over 2.5

+130

Under 2.5

-175

John Tavares (Maple Leafs)

Over 2.5

+105

Under 2.5

-141

Moritz Seider (Red Wings)

Over 2.5

+125

Under 2.5

-175

Matthew Knies (Maple Leafs)

Over 1.5

-135

Under 1.5

-100

Emmitt Finnie (Red Wings)

Over 1.5

-175

Under 1.5

+130

Bobby McMann (Maple Leafs)

Over 1.5

-145

Under 1.5

+105

Morgan Rielly (Maple Leafs)

Over 1.5

-141

Under 1.5

-100

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Latest regular season and playoff games stats.

Toronto Maple Leafs Stats

Detroit Red Wings Stats

Moneyline

• 4 wins and 6 defeats in the last 10 games
• 4 wins and 6 defeats in the last 10 games on the road

Moneyline

• 7 wins and 3 defeats in the last 10 games
• 6 wins and 4 defeats in the last 10 home games

Puck Line

• +1.5 Betting Line: Have covered the +1.5 puck line in 6 of the last 10 games
• +1.5 Betting Line on the Road: Have covered the +1.5 puck line in 5 of the last 10 games on the road

Puck Line

• -1.5 Betting Line: Have covered the -1.5 puck line in 3 of the last 10 games
• -1.5 Betting Line at Home: Have covered the -1.5 puck line in 1 of the last 10 home games

Total Goals

• Game Totals: An average of 6.30 goals in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals on the Road: An average of 5.90 goals in the previous 10 games on the road
• Over 6.5: Covered in 4 of the previous 10 games
• Over 6.5 on the Road: Covered in 3 of the previous 10 games on the road
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 2.80 goals and allowed 3.50 goals in the last 10 games
• Team Totals on the Road: Have scored an average of 2.80 pts and allowed 3.10 goals in the last 10 games on the road

Total Goals

• Game Totals: An average of 5.60 goals in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals at Home: An average of 6.70 goals in the previous 10 home games
• Over 6.5: Covered in 4 of the previous 10 games
• Over 6.5 at Home: Covered in 5 of the previous 10 home games
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 3.10 goals and allowed 2.50 goals in the last 10 games
• Team Totals at Home: Have scored an average of 3.00 goals and allowed 3.70 goals in the last 10 home games

Team Stats - Avg/Game

Last 10 Games

• Goals Powerplay: 0.4
• Shots: 26.9
• Goals Shorthanded: 0.1
• Penalties: 2.6
• Empty Net Goals: 0.4
• Penalty Minutes: 5.8
• Blocks: 10.4
• Faceoff Wins : 29.8
• Hits: 24.4
• Giveaways: 17.2
• Takeaways: 5.5

Last 10 Games on the Road

• Goals Powerplay: 0.2
• Shots: 25.5
• Goals Shorthanded: 0
• Penalties: 3.4
• Empty Net Goals: 0.2
• Penalty Minutes: 8.7
• Blocks: 11.9
• Faceoff Wins : 31.3
• Hits: 23
• Giveaways: 17.3
• Takeaways: 4.6

Team Stats - Avg/Game

Last 10 Games

• Goals Powerplay: 0.7
• Shots: 26.4
• Goals Shorthanded: 0
• Penalties: 2.8
• Empty Net Goals: 0.3
• Penalty Minutes: 5.6
• Blocks: 12.2
• Faceoff Wins : 26.8
• Hits: 14.8
• Giveaways: 15.3
• Takeaways: 4.6

Last 10 Home Games

• Goals Powerplay: 1
• Shots: 29
• Goals Shorthanded: 0
• Penalties: 3.6
• Empty Net Goals: 0.1
• Penalty Minutes: 9.3
• Blocks: 13.3
• Faceoff Wins : 29.9
• Hits: 16.6
• Giveaways: 14.5
• Takeaways: 4.8

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Injuries & Suspensions

Starting Lineups

Both teams’ confirmed lineups will be published ahead of face-off. There is also the chance to look at the lineups from the previous 10 games.

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