Toronto Maple Leafs vs New York Islanders Prediction, Picks & Odds | 03 Jan 2026

NHL Betting Preview: Maple Leafs vs Islanders

The Toronto Maple Leafs go up against the New York Islanders at UBS Arena, with face-off scheduled for 19:00 on Saturday, January 3.

Our betting prediction is the Maple Leafs to have the edge over the Islanders and we think that the -110 represents an attractive wager on the Moneyline.

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Toronto Maple Leafs have lost four straight road games. In their previous appearance, they recorded a 6-5 home win over Winnipeg Jets at Scotiabank Arena. Auston Matthews bagged a hat trick along with 1 assist. Goalie Dennis Hildeby was red hot in the net, stopping 22 shots (.957).

New York Islanders lost their last game, being beaten at home to Utah Mammoth 7-2 at UBS Arena. Matthew Schaefer and Calum Ritchie scored one goal each.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The Leafs have beaten the Islanders in the last two encounters. A 3-1 victory at Scotiabank Arena was followed by a 2-1 win at UBS Arena. The past 10 clashes between these teams have seen six Islanders wins.

Starting Goalies

Joseph Woll (Expected)

Season	W-L-OTL:	GAA:	SV%:	SO:
24/25	8-4-1	2.7	.914	1
23/24	12-11-1	2.93	.907	0

David Rittich (Confirmed)

Season	W-L-OTL:	GAA:	SV%:	SO:
24/25	10-5-2	2.5	.909	2
23/24	13-6-1	2.15	.921	3

5 wins, 4 losses and 1 overtime loss, averaging 3.5 goals from 27.8 shots on goal, with a 20.0% powerplay efficiency. The Leafs have given up 3.8 goals from 31.9 shots, averaging 2.5 penalties with a penalty-killing efficiency of 92.0%.

Auston Matthews is the top points scorer with 10 points, 5 goals and 5 assists, with Matthew Knies recording 8 points, 4 goals and 4 assists, in the last 10 games. Goalie Joseph Woll have a 3.15 goal against average with a .900 save percentage, including one shutout.

The Islanders have 5 wins, 4 losses and 1 overtime loss, averaging 2.2 goals from 25.0 shots on goal, with a 17.7% powerplay efficiency. They have conceded 2.7 goals from 28.4 shots, averaging 3.1 penalties per game with a penalty-killing efficiency of 74.2%.

The top points scorer is Anders Lee with 9 points, 4 goals and 5 assists, while Simon Holmstroem is next in line after having 8 points, 3 goals and 5 assists. Goalie David Rittich have a 2.18 GAA with a .921 SV%, including one shutout.

Toronto Maple Leafs vs New York Islanders Prediction & Picks

This expert Toronto Maple Leafs vs New York Islanders betting breakdown features our match prediction, a correct score pick and a carefully constructed bet builder to guide your wagers.

Game Prediction

We’re eager to back Toronto Maple Leafs to triumph in this NHL clash and that leads us to the Moneyline for our pick. It’s difficult to turn down the -110 that the visitors claim the win.

Our hockey picks are always well-researched, starting with a combination of the latest NHL team news and current form. Once we’ve got a solid read on the matchup, we layer in the key data to back it up.

Key Maple Leafs vs Islanders stats:

• Maple Leafs have won 4 of their last 5 games.
• Maple Leafs have won 2 consecutive games.
• Islanders have lost their last 2 games against Maple Leafs.

Leafs Moneyline Probability

When you look at the latest odds, our pick has a 52.4% chance of landing a return. In the opinion of our cappers, there’s actually a probability of success closer to 60%. It’s why we think it’s worth placing this hockey bet.

Those looking for bigger odds about a win for Toronto should head to the Match Winner & Total Goals lines. You can combine this pick with an Under / Over goals prediction for more juice.

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Our Game Prediction

Maple Leafs Moneyline @ -110 Watch Live Bet Now

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Correct Score Prediction

Maple Leafs 5 - 2 Islanders

A 5-2 win in favor of the Maple Leafs can be backed at odds of +1800. We like placing a bet on correct score due to the fun element and the big potential return.

Latest Correct Score Odds

Score

Maple Leafs

Islanders

1-0

Maple Leafs

+4500

Islanders

+4500

2-0

Maple Leafs

+4000

Islanders

+4500

2-1

Maple Leafs

+1300

Islanders

+1300

3-0

Maple Leafs

+2900

Islanders

+3000

3-1

Maple Leafs

+1700

Islanders

+1700

3-2

Maple Leafs

+800

Islanders

+800

4-0

Maple Leafs

+4000

Islanders

+4000

4-1

Maple Leafs

+1500

Islanders

+1500

4-2

Maple Leafs

+1600

Islanders

+1600

4-3

Maple Leafs

+1050

Islanders

+1050

5-0

Maple Leafs

+7000

Islanders

+7000

5-1

Maple Leafs

+2500

Islanders

+2500

5-2

Maple Leafs

+1800

Islanders

+1800

5-3

Maple Leafs

+2500

Islanders

+2500

5-4

Maple Leafs

+2200

Islanders

+2200

6-0

Maple Leafs

+11000

Islanders

+11000

6-1

Maple Leafs

+6600

Islanders

+6000

6-2

Maple Leafs

+3500

Islanders

+3400

6-3

Maple Leafs

+3400

Islanders

+3300

6-4

Maple Leafs

+5500

Islanders

+5500

6-5

Maple Leafs

+5500

Islanders

+5500

7-1

Maple Leafs

+11000

Islanders

+10000

7-2

Maple Leafs

+9000

Islanders

+9000

7-3

Maple Leafs

+6600

Islanders

+6600

7-4

Maple Leafs

+7500

Islanders

+7500

7-5

Maple Leafs

+12000

Islanders

+12000

7-6

Maple Leafs

+13000

Islanders

+13000

8-4

Maple Leafs

+14000

Islanders

+13000

View More

Toronto Maple Leafs vs New York Islanders Odds

The odds and lines are updated on a frequent basis. You might therefore find that they are different to the ones listed for the above betting predictions.

The sportsbooks are expecting a tight game. They can’t split New York Islanders and Toronto Maple Leafs according to the latest Moneyline betting odds. Both teams can be backed at -110 and it’s a case of working out the most likely winner.

The puck line is 1.5 and the total goals line is currently 5.5. Hockey bettors regularly enjoy the opportunity to wager on Totals. If you want to back Over 5.5, it’s -122.

You can find hundreds of game lines and team props for every National Hockey League clash, with the top betting sites creating lots of different options. Check out the pre-game and in-game selections before placing your bets.

Moneyline

Maple Leafs

-110

Islanders

-110

3-Way Moneyline

Maple Leafs

+148

Tie

+310

Islanders

+148

Puck Line

Maple Leafs +1.5

-278

Islanders -1.5

+220

Total Goals

Under 5.5

-100

Over 5.5

-122

Latest regular season and playoff games stats.

Toronto Maple Leafs Stats

New York Islanders Stats

Moneyline

• 5 wins and 5 defeats in the last 10 games
• 4 wins and 6 defeats in the last 10 games on the road

Moneyline

• 5 wins and 5 defeats in the last 10 games
• 7 wins and 3 defeats in the last 10 home games

Puck Line

• +1.5 Betting Line: Have covered the +1.5 puck line in 6 of the last 10 games
• +1.5 Betting Line on the Road: Have covered the +1.5 puck line in 5 of the last 10 games on the road

Puck Line

• -1.5 Betting Line: Have covered the -1.5 puck line in 2 of the last 10 games
• -1.5 Betting Line at Home: Have covered the -1.5 puck line in 3 of the last 10 home games

Total Goals

• Game Totals: An average of 7.30 goals in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals on the Road: An average of 5.90 goals in the previous 10 games on the road
• Over 5.5: Covered in 6 of the previous 10 games
• Over 5.5 on the Road: Covered in 6 of the previous 10 games on the road
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 3.50 goals and allowed 3.80 goals in the last 10 games
• Team Totals on the Road: Have scored an average of 2.80 pts and allowed 3.10 goals in the last 10 games on the road

Total Goals

• Game Totals: An average of 5.20 goals in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals at Home: An average of 5.70 goals in the previous 10 home games
• Over 5.5: Covered in 3 of the previous 10 games
• Over 5.5 at Home: Covered in 4 of the previous 10 home games
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 2.40 goals and allowed 2.80 goals in the last 10 games
• Team Totals at Home: Have scored an average of 2.90 goals and allowed 2.80 goals in the last 10 home games

Team Stats - Avg/Game

Last 10 Games

• Goals Powerplay: 0.6
• Shots: 27.8
• Goals Shorthanded: 0
• Penalties: 2.5
• Empty Net Goals: 0.4
• Penalty Minutes: 5.3
• Blocks: 10.8
• Faceoff Wins : 27.6
• Hits: 24.2
• Giveaways: 17
• Takeaways: 4.4

Last 10 Games on the Road

• Goals Powerplay: 0.3
• Shots: 24.9
• Goals Shorthanded: 0
• Penalties: 3.4
• Empty Net Goals: 0.2
• Penalty Minutes: 8.7
• Blocks: 11.6
• Faceoff Wins : 30.7
• Hits: 22.6
• Giveaways: 17.1
• Takeaways: 4.5

Team Stats - Avg/Game

Last 10 Games

• Goals Powerplay: 0.6
• Shots: 25
• Goals Shorthanded: 0
• Penalties: 3.1
• Empty Net Goals: 0.1
• Penalty Minutes: 7.5
• Blocks: 15.2
• Faceoff Wins : 29.6
• Hits: 19.7
• Giveaways: 15.2
• Takeaways: 5.7

Last 10 Home Games

• Goals Powerplay: 0.7
• Shots: 27.5
• Goals Shorthanded: 0
• Penalties: 3.1
• Empty Net Goals: 0.2
• Penalty Minutes: 6.2
• Blocks: 13.3
• Faceoff Wins : 28.5
• Hits: 19.7
• Giveaways: 14.6
• Takeaways: 5.9

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Injuries & Suspensions

Starting Lineups

Both teams’ confirmed lineups will be published ahead of face-off. There is also the chance to look at the lineups from the previous 10 games.

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