Alabama vs Florida State Prediction, Picks & Odds | 30 Aug 2025

College Football Betting Preview: Alabama vs Florida State

Alabama battle Florida State in this NCAAF Week 1 matchup at Doak Campbell Stadium, with kickoff scheduled for 15:30 on Saturday 30 August. Our betting preview features expert predictions, picks, the latest betting odds and H2H stats.

Will Points Be at a Premium?

The -115 about Under 50.5 points makes lots of appeal and represents value in our eyes. We’re not sure that Florida State and Alabama can combine to reach that total.

Think our Totals pick is worth a shot? Grab the latest BetMGM promo code and check out our comprehensive site review. It could be a smart move.

Two Teams Defeated in Last Game

In their most recent outing, Alabama Crimson Tide fell 19-13 to the Michigan Wolverines in the ReliaQuest Bowl at Raymond James Stadium.

Florida State Seminoles were beaten in their last game, losing 31-11 at home to the Florida Gators at Doak Campbell Stadium.

Quarterbacks

Ty Simpson

243.5 Passing Yards

Over -114

Under -114

Tommy Castellanos

166.5 Passing Yards

Over -114

Under -114

Alabama vs Florida State Prediction & Picks

Gear up for Alabama vs Florida State with our comprehensive betting guide, featuring an expert match prediction, scoreline advice, top player props and a hand-picked bet builder.

Game Prediction

Let’s go Under the 50.5 points total as we think this number is unlikely to be reached. The two college football teams might lack the combined scoring power and -115 can be backed.

We only make our college football picks after confirming the latest team news. Studying recent form and digging into the most relevant stats also helps us build a complete picture.

Key Alabama vs Florida State stats:

• The 50.5 line hasn’t been covered in the last 3 Alabama games.
• The 50.5 line hasn’t been covered in the last 7 Florida State games at home.
• The 50.5 line hasn’t been covered in 8 of the last 10 Florida State games.
• The 50.5 line hasn’t been covered in 14 of the last 20 Florida State games.

Under 50.5 Probability

According to the latest betting odds, our pick has a 53.5% chance of winning. After careful examination, our analysts calculate this probability to be closer to 60%. The wager can be recommended for this precise reason.

For a larger payout, many bettors will include their Under wager on the Totals with other selections. A Bet Builder is perfect for combining all your picks.

Why bet empty-handed? Check our up-to-date guide for the latest sign-up promos, welcome bonuses and betting offers.

Best Bet

Under 50.5 Points @ -115 Bet Now

BetMGM Promo Up To $1500 in Bonus Bets Get Bonus T&C apply. Gamble responsibly 18+

Gamble responsibly 18+. All odds are correct at time of publishing and are subject to change. To use the Bookmaker Live Streaming services you will need to be logged in and have a funded account or to have placed a bet in the last 24 hours. Geo-restrictions apply.

Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: Tommy Castellanos Under 166.5 Passing Yards -114

The odds for Tommy Castellanos (Florida State) to record fewer than 166.5 passing yards are -114. If you agree with our verdict that the line is too high, this QB Passing Yards wager is worth backing.

Latest Tommy Castellanos Player Prop Odds

Touchdown

Anytime

+185

First

+1300

Passing Yards

Over 166.5

-114

Under 166.5

-114

Rushing Yards

Over 25.5

-112

Under 25.5

-112

---

Ryan Williams Under 71.5 Receiving Yards -114

You can back Ryan Williams (Florida State) at -114 to end with fewer than 71.5 receiving yards. He could struggle to reach the Player Receiving Yards line, making this prop bet highly appealing.

Latest Ryan Williams Player Prop Odds

Touchdown

Anytime

+105

First

+650

Receiving Yards

Over 69.5

-112

Under 69.5

-112

Correct Score Prediction

Alabama 28 - 13 Florida State

There are some huge returns lying in wait if you can get the correct score right. With this in mind, we’ll have a play on the Crimson Tide to enjoy a 28-13 winning scoreline.

Alabama vs Florida State Odds

The odds and lines are updated on a frequent basis. You might therefore find that they are different to the ones listed for the betting predictions and bet builder tips.

Bama Big Favorites on the Moneyline

Alabama have short betting odds and they’re overwhelming -625 favorites for this college game. This means the sportsbooks give them a 86% chance of winning. For those wanting to back Florida State, you will find +450 about the underdogs.

The spread is 13.5 and the total points line is currently 47.5. There is no denying the popularity of wagering on the Totals. If you want to bet Under 47.5, there are odds of -105.

If you’re planning to place a college football wager, visit the best betting apps and check out the huge selection of available team props and game lines. Find the odds and betting lines which are the most attractive.

Moneyline

Alabama

-625

FSU

+450

Point Spread

Alabama -13.5

-120

FSU +13.5

-102

Total Points

Under 47.5

-105

Over 47.5

-115

Richard Young Favorite to Be First Touchdown Scorer

The First TD Scorer favorite is Richard Young at +460. Similar odds can be found if you’re interested in this player to record the last touchdown.

Touchdown

Richard Young (Alabama)

First TD

+460

Anytime TD

-149

Ryan Williams (Alabama)

First TD

+650

Anytime TD

+105

Daniel Hill (Alabama)

First TD

+800

Anytime TD

+140

Dre Washington (Alabama)

First TD

+1100

Anytime TD

+190

Isaiah Horton (Alabama)

First TD

+1200

Anytime TD

+200

Germie Bernard (Alabama)

First TD

+1200

Anytime TD

+240

Tommy Castellanos (FSU)

First TD

+1300

Anytime TD

+185

Ty Simpson (Alabama)

First TD

+1400

Anytime TD

+200

Roydell Williams (FSU)

First TD

+1600

Anytime TD

+240

Gavin Sawchuk (FSU)

First TD

+1800

Anytime TD

+310

Duce Robinson (FSU)

First TD

+1900

Anytime TD

+280

Josh Cuevas (Alabama)

First TD

+2000

Anytime TD

+400

Jayvan Boggs (FSU)

First TD

+3000

Anytime TD

+450

Jaylin Lucas (FSU)

First TD

+3000

Anytime TD

+550

Randy Pittman Jr. (FSU)

First TD

+3300

Anytime TD

+550

Squirrel White (FSU)

First TD

+3500

Anytime TD

+600

Cole Adams (Alabama)

First TD

+4000

Anytime TD

+700

Landen Thomas (FSU)

First TD

+5500

Anytime TD

+950

Receiving Yards

Ryan Williams (Alabama)

Over 69.5

-112

Under 69.5

-112

Germie Bernard (Alabama)

Over 53.5

-112

Under 53.5

-112

Isaiah Horton (Alabama)

Over 37.5

-112

Under 37.5

-112

Duce Robinson (FSU)

Over 37.5

-112

Under 37.5

-112

Squirrel White (FSU)

Over 22.5

-112

Under 22.5

-112

Josh Cuevas (Alabama)

Over 17.5

-112

Under 17.5

-112

Randy Pittman Jr. (FSU)

Over 16.5

-112

Under 16.5

-112

Richard Young (Alabama)

Over 8.5

-112

Under 8.5

-112

Roydell Williams (FSU)

Over 7.5

-112

Under 7.5

-112

Rushing Yards

Richard Young (Alabama)

Over 58.5

-112

Under 58.5

-112

Roydell Williams (FSU)

Over 27.5

-112

Under 27.5

-112

Tommy Castellanos (FSU)

Over 25.5

-112

Under 25.5

-112

Ty Simpson (Alabama)

Over 24.5

-112

Under 24.5

-112

Passing Yards

Ty Simpson (Alabama)

Over 243.5

-114

Under 243.5

-114

Tommy Castellanos (FSU)

Over 166.5

-114

Under 166.5

-114

Micro Betting

There are always opportunities to enjoy college football micro betting. It’s generally the case that you will find player and team props in-game and bettors can use their insight to wager on outcomes such as the Next Punt, Turnover or Score Play.

Florida State Have Endured Six Defeats in Previous Ten at Home

Florida State have four wins and six losses in the last 10 home games, putting up 19.20 points per contest and giving up 24.10.

Alabama own a 5-5 mark in their past 10 road games, averaging 27.40 points scored and 22.20 points allowed.

Last 10 Games		W-L	P	PF	PA	O50.5	U50.5
Florida State Home Stats		4-6	43.30	19.20	24.10	2	8
Alabama Away Stats		5-5	49.60	27.40	22.20	5	5

• W-L = Wins-Losses
• P = Avg. Points
• PF = Avg. Points For
• PA = Avg. Points Against
• O50.5 = Games Over 50.5 Points
• U50.5 = Games Under 50.5 Points

Last 5 & H2H

Latest regular season and playoff games stats.

Alabama Crimson Tide Stats

Florida State Seminoles Stats

Moneyline

• 6 wins and 4 defeats in the last 10 games
• 5 wins and 5 defeats in the last 10 games on the road

Moneyline

• 2 wins and 8 defeats in the last 10 games
• 4 wins and 6 defeats in the last 10 home games

Point Spread

• -13.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 4 of the last 10 games
• -13.5 Betting Line on the Road: Have covered the spread in 3 of the last 10 games on the road

Point Spread

• +13.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 4 of the last 10 games
• +13.5 Betting Line at Home: Have covered the spread in 5 of the last 10 home games

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 49.20 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals on the Road: An average of 49.60 pts in the previous 10 games on the road
• Over 50.5: Covered in 5 of the previous 10 games
• Over 50.5 on the Road: Covered in 5 of the previous 10 games on the road
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 29.20 pts and allowed 20.00 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals on the Road: Have scored an average of 27.40 pts and allowed 22.20 pts in the last 10 games on the road

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 43.50 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals at Home: An average of 43.30 pts in the previous 10 home games
• Over 50.5: Covered in 2 of the previous 10 games
• Over 50.5 at Home: Covered in 2 of the previous 10 home games
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 15.10 pts and allowed 28.40 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals at Home: Have scored an average of 19.20 pts and allowed 24.10 pts in the last 10 home games

NCAAF Standings Select Season 2025/20262024/20252023/20242022/20232021/20222020/20212019/2020

Atlantic Coast	W	L	PF	PA	N. Pts	Home	Away	Strk
Georgia Tech	6	0	220	126	94	4-0	2-0	6W
Miami	5	1	196	92	104	4-1	1-0	1L
Virginia	5	1	258	143	115	4-0	1-1	4W
Louisville	5	1	204	126	78	3-1	2-0	1W
California	5	2	166	153	13	3-1	2-1	1W
SMU	4	2	204	134	70	3-1	1-1	2W
Wake Forest	4	2	174	120	54	2-2	2-0	2W
Pittsburgh	4	2	239	129	110	3-1	1-1	2W
Duke	4	2	219	153	66	2-1	2-1	3W
NC State	4	3	210	186	24	3-1	1-2	1L
Clemson	3	3	158	111	47	1-2	2-1	2W
Florida State	3	3	265	138	127	3-2	0-1	3L
Syracuse	3	3	174	179	-5	2-1	1-2	2L
North Carolina	2	4	112	150	-38	1-2	1-2	3L
Stanford	2	4	113	181	-68	2-0	0-4	1L
Virginia Tech	2	5	161	205	-44	1-3	1-2	2L
Boston College	1	5	167	199	-32	1-2	0-3	5L

Southeastern	W	L	PF	PA	N. Pts	Home	Away	Strk
Ole Miss	6	0	227	115	112	5-0	1-0	6W
Texas A&M	6	0	208	122	86	5-0	1-0	6W
Alabama	5	1	209	104	105	3-0	2-1	5W
Georgia	5	1	193	102	91	3-1	2-0	2W
LSU	5	1	155	71	84	4-0	1-1	1W
Missouri	5	1	250	100	150	5-1	0-0	1L
Oklahoma	5	1	175	59	116	4-0	1-1	1L
Tennessee	5	1	289	176	113	4-1	1-0	3W
Vanderbilt	5	1	259	116	143	3-0	2-1	1L
Mississippi State	4	2	202	119	83	3-1	1-1	2L
Texas	4	2	171	66	105	4-0	0-2	1W
Auburn	3	3	148	102	46	2-1	1-2	3L
South Carolina	3	3	134	114	20	3-1	0-2	1L
Kentucky	2	3	122	139	-17	2-1	0-2	2L
Arkansas	2	4	218	184	34	2-1	0-3	4L
Florida	2	4	134	119	15	2-1	0-3	1L