Florida vs Miami Prediction, Picks & Odds | 20 Sep 2025

College Football Betting Preview: Florida vs Miami

Florida go up against Miami in this NCAAF Week 4 matchup at Hard Rock Stadium, with kickoff scheduled for 19:30 on Saturday 20 September. Our betting preview features expert predictions, picks, the latest betting odds and H2H stats.

Miami to Make Short Work of Florida

Bet on Miami against the spread, with an attractive line of -8.5 that they have the upper hand against Florida. There are odds of -112 that are currently on offer for this selection.

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41-17 Victory for Miami in Pair’s Last Head-to-Head

Florida Gators have suffered a defeat in back-to-back games including a recent 20-10 loss. This occurred on the road at Tiger Stadium against LSU Tigers.

Miami Hurricanes won their last game 49-12, making it three victories on the bounce. This was a home win at Hard Rock Stadium against South Florida.

Head-to-Head Statistics

These two teams last met at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium, with Miami claiming the win. Beating Florida by a 41-17 scoreline.

Quarterbacks

DJ Lagway

223.5 Passing Yards

Over -114

Under -114

Carson Beck

272.5 Passing Yards

Over -114

Under -114

Florida vs Miami Prediction & Picks

We’ve lined up expert Florida vs Miami betting tips, from our match prediction and correct score call to player prop picks and best bet builder advice. Read on for the full breakdown.

Game Prediction

Miami should be taken against the spread at -8.5 with our pick being for the favorites to achieve a comfortable margin of victory in this college football battle. Back them at the odds of -112 that are available.

Our CFB handicappers start by reviewing the latest team news for each team, followed by a close look at recent form. That information is then applied to the most relevant stats to reach a well-informed verdict.

Key Florida vs Miami stats:

• The -8.5 line has been covered by Miami in 7 of their last 10 games at home.
• The -8.5 line has been covered by Miami in 3 of their last 5 games at home.
• The -8.5 line has been covered by Miami in 2 consecutive games.
• The +8.5 line hasn’t been covered by Florida in 3 of their last 5 games on the road.

Miami -8.5 Probability

According to the top sportsbooks, there’s a 52.9% likelihood of our pick landing a return. Based on our cappers in-depth research, we calculate the actual probability to be 55-60%. This is why we regard this as a value wager.

If you want a viable alternative to backing Miami on the spread, then the Winning Margin lines could be up your street. Choose from a wide range of options.

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Best Bet

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Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: DJ Lagway Under 223.5 Passing Yards -114

DJ Lagway (Florida) is priced at -114 to record fewer than 223.5 passing yards. We're confident he’ll fall short of the QB Passing Yards line, so we're backing the Under.

Latest DJ Lagway Player Prop Odds

Passing Yards

Over 223.5

-114

Under 223.5

-114

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Eugene Wilson III Under 50.5 Receiving Yards -114

The odds for Eugene Wilson III (Florida) to end with fewer than 50.5 receiving yards are -114. He could struggle to reach the Player Receiving Yards line, making this prop bet highly appealing.

Latest Eugene Wilson III Player Prop Odds

Receiving Yards

Over 50.5

-114

Under 50.5

-114

Correct Score Prediction

Florida 24 - 34 Miami

We’re going for Miami to claim a 34-24 victory and the good news is that there are huge odds for this outcome. A small stake can return a potentially large amount.

Florida vs Miami Odds

The odds and lines are updated on a frequent basis. You might therefore find that they are different to the ones listed for the betting predictions and bet builder tips.

Miami Big Favorites to Win

Miami are -333 favorites and that means a 77% chance of winning this college game according to the Moneyline betting odds with the sportsbooks. Florida are trading at bigger odds than their opponents and they can be backed at +265.

The current spread is 8.5 and the total points line is 51.5. The beauty of the Totals is that you only have to choose from one of two options. Those expecting a low total can back Under 51.5 at -115.

There are a wide range of game lines and team props when it comes to most college football matchups and we recommend visiting the best betting apps to find the wager that matches your view on the game.

Moneyline

Florida

+265

Miami

-333

Point Spread

Florida +8.5

-108

Miami -8.5

-112

Total Points

Under 51.5

-115

Over 51.5

-105

Player Odds

Receiving Yards

Malachi Toney (Miami)

Over 66.5

-114

Under 66.5

-114

Eugene Wilson III (Florida)

Over 50.5

-114

Under 50.5

-114

CJ Daniels (Miami)

Over 48.5

-114

Under 48.5

-114

Hayden Hansen (Florida)

Over 34.5

-114

Under 34.5

-114

Keelan Marion (Miami)

Over 32.5

-114

Under 32.5

-114

Rushing Yards

Mark Fletcher Jr. (Miami)

Over 72.5

-114

Under 72.5

-114

Jadan Baugh (Florida)

Over 64.5

-114

Under 64.5

-114

Passing Yards

Carson Beck (Miami)

Over 272.5

-114

Under 272.5

-114

DJ Lagway (Florida)

Over 223.5

-114

Under 223.5

-114

Can Miami Keep Their Home Streak Alive?

Miami have put together nine straight wins at Hard Rock Stadium. They have nine wins and one loss in the last 10 home games, putting up 43.20 points on average and giving up 17.20.

Florida own a 3-7 mark in their past 10 road games, averaging 26.10 points scored and 32.20 points allowed.

In their last matchup at Hard Rock Stadium, Florida came out on top 24-20 against Miami.

Last 10 Games		W-L	P	PF	PA	O51.5	U51.5
Miami Home Stats		9-1	60.40	43.20	17.20	7	3
Florida Away Stats		3-7	58.30	26.10	32.20	6	4

• W-L = Wins-Losses
• P = Avg. Points
• PF = Avg. Points For
• PA = Avg. Points Against
• O51.5 = Games Over 51.5 Points
• U51.5 = Games Under 51.5 Points

Last 5 & H2H

Latest regular season and playoff games stats.

Florida Gators Stats

Miami Stats

Moneyline

• 6 wins and 4 defeats in the last 10 games
• 3 wins and 7 defeats in the last 10 games on the road

Moneyline

• 7 wins and 3 defeats in the last 10 games
• 9 wins and 1 defeat in the last 10 home games

Point Spread

• +8.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 7 of the last 10 games
• +8.5 Betting Line on the Road: Have covered the spread in 5 of the last 10 games on the road

Point Spread

• -8.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 5 of the last 10 games
• -8.5 Betting Line at Home: Have covered the spread in 7 of the last 10 home games

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 47.40 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals on the Road: An average of 58.30 pts in the previous 10 games on the road
• Over 51.5: Covered in 4 of the previous 10 games
• Over 51.5 on the Road: Covered in 6 of the previous 10 games on the road
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 28.10 pts and allowed 19.30 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals on the Road: Have scored an average of 26.10 pts and allowed 32.20 pts in the last 10 games on the road

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 66.10 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals at Home: An average of 63.20 pts in the previous 10 home games
• Over 51.5: Covered in 6 of the previous 10 games
• Over 51.5 at Home: Covered in 7 of the previous 10 home games
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 40.60 pts and allowed 25.50 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals at Home: Have scored an average of 44.90 pts and allowed 18.30 pts in the last 10 home games

NCAAF Standings Select Season 2025/20262024/20252023/20242022/20232021/20222020/20212019/2020

Atlantic Coast	W	L	PF	PA	N. Pts	Home	Away	Strk
California	3	0	96	32	64	2-0	1-0	3W
Florida State	2	0	108	20	88	2-0	0-0	2W
Georgia Tech	3	0	110	53	57	2-0	1-0	3W
Louisville	2	0	79	31	48	2-0	0-0	2W
Miami	3	0	121	39	82	3-0	0-0	3W
NC State	3	0	93	72	21	2-0	1-0	3W
Wake Forest	2	1	76	53	23	2-1	0-0	1L
Virginia	2	1	134	58	76	2-0	0-1	1W
SMU	2	1	115	71	44	1-1	1-0	1W
Syracuse	2	1	119	89	30	2-0	0-1	2W
Pittsburgh	2	1	130	57	73	2-0	0-1	1L
North Carolina	2	1	75	57	18	1-1	1-0	2W
Boston College	1	2	126	82	44	1-0	0-2	2L
Clemson	1	2	58	57	1	1-1	0-1	1L
Duke	1	2	91	96	-5	1-1	0-1	2L
Stanford	1	2	53	70	-17	1-0	0-2	1W
Virginia Tech	0	3	57	113	-56	0-2	0-1	3L

Southeastern	W	L	PF	PA	N. Pts	Home	Away	Strk
Auburn	3	0	111	42	69	2-0	1-0	3W
Georgia	3	0	117	54	63	2-0	1-0	3W
LSU	3	0	60	27	33	2-0	1-0	3W
Mississippi State	3	0	121	37	84	2-0	1-0	3W
Missouri	3	0	155	47	108	3-0	0-0	3W
Oklahoma	3	0	101	19	82	2-0	1-0	3W
Ole Miss	3	0	134	65	69	2-0	1-0	3W
Texas A&M	3	0	127	86	41	2-0	1-0	3W
Vanderbilt	3	0	120	30	90	1-0	2-0	3W
Alabama	2	1	128	45	83	2-0	0-1	2W
Arkansas	2	1	143	62	81	2-0	0-1	1L
Kentucky	2	1	95	69	26	2-1	0-0	1W
South Carolina	2	1	69	52	17	2-1	0-0	1L
Tennessee	2	1	158	87	71	2-1	0-0	1L
Texas	2	1	72	31	41	2-0	0-1	2W
Florida	1	2	81	38	43	1-1	0-1	2L