Louisville vs Pittsburgh Prediction, Picks & Odds | 27 Sep 2025
College Football Betting Preview: Louisville vs Pitt
Louisville face Pitt in this NCAAF Week 5 matchup at Acrisure Stadium, with kickoff scheduled for 12:00 on Saturday, September 27. Our betting preview features expert predictions, picks, the latest betting odds and H2H stats.
Louisville at -4.5 could be the best wager to have on the spread. -110 is available and our betting prediction is for the favorites to secure a solid victory when they meet Pitt.
Louisville Cardinals made it three consecutive wins after a 40-17 home success over Bowling Green Falcons at L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium.
Pittsburgh Panthers have enjoyed two home wins in a row. They were defeated in their last game when losing 31-24 (OT) on the road against West Virginia Mountaineers.
Head-to-Head Statistics
These two teams last met at L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium, with Louisville claiming the win. Beating Pitt by a 37-9 scoreline. The past 4 H2H clashes have seen both teams record two wins.
Quarterbacks
Miller Moss
Eli Holstein
Louisville vs Pittsburgh Prediction & Picks
Take on Louisville vs Pittsburgh with our in-depth betting analysis, featuring an expert match prediction, scoreline advice, key player props and a value-driven bet builder.
Game Prediction
We are confident that the favorites will cover the spread in this college football matchup. -4.5 seems a more than generous betting line and you can get -110 that Louisville will win by a bigger margin.
Our CFB handicappers start by reviewing the latest team news for each team, followed by a close look at recent form. That information is then applied to the most relevant stats to reach a well-informed verdict.
Key Louisville vs Pittsburgh stats:
Louisville -4.5 Probability
The top betting apps make it a 52.4% chance that our pick is settled as a winner. In the opinion of our analysts, there’s actually a probability of success between 55-60%. It is therefore regarded as a value bet.
A Bet Builder provides you with the opportunity to combine Louisville on the spread with other picks. For every additional selection, the price is boosted.
Check out the most rewarding betting offers in our in-depth guide before your next wager. The best bonuses and free bets await.
Player Prop Picks
The odds for Caullin Lacy (Louisville) to record a TD are -105. We believe there’s merit in backing him for an Anytime Touchdown Scorer prop wager, meaning we need him to punch it in.
The odds for Eli Holstein (Pitt) to accumulate over 19.5 rushing yards are -114. We feel confident that he’ll cover the Player Rushing Yards line, which looks generous.
Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.
Same Game Parlay Picks
Take a same game parlay that incorporates Louisville to cover the -4.5 spread along with Over 57.5 points. Add in Caullin Lacy (Louisville) as an anytime touchdown scorer.
A football same game parlay is a single event wager where you make predictions that are going to happen in a particular game. Should a bettor get these picks correct, then they can achieve a big return from a small stake.
Correct Score Prediction
34
-
28
Pitt
A 34-28 win for Louisville is clearly a risky bet although this could be an exciting correct score option where there’s the chance to enjoy a massive potential return.
Louisville vs Pittsburgh Odds
The odds and lines below are updated regularly and may differ from the prices shown in our picks, which are captured at the time of publication.
With the sportsbooks giving them a 60% probability of winning this college game, Louisville might be a popular parlay pick. That is reflected in their -149 Moneyline betting odds. Pittsburgh are the underdogs at +125 and they’re regarded as least likely to win.
3.5 is the spread and 54.5 is the total points line. There is no denying the popularity of wagering on the Totals. If you fancy Under 54.5, then the odds are -110.
College football fans are spoilt for choice thanks to the wide range of game lines and team props which are available for every clash on the coupon. Head to the top betting sites and find the best value picks.
The Anytime Touchdown betting indicates that Keyjuan Brown has odds of %anytime_odds%. He is available at %first_odds% to score the first TD which makes him favorite.
Touchdown
Receiving Yards
Rushing Yards
Passing Yards
It’s possible to use stats to your advantage when it comes to college football micro betting, especially if you’re predicting outcomes such as the Next Drive Result. Check out the live player, score and team props and see if you can find an angle.
Pitt Have Picked Up Eight Wins From Last Ten Home Games
Pitt own a 8-2 mark in their past 10 home games, posting 39.30 points per contest while yielding 19.30.
Louisville own a 6-4 mark in their past 10 games away from home, averaging 29.50 points on offense and surrendering 27.40 on defense.
The last Acrisure Stadium meeting saw Pitt beat Louisville 38-21.
| Last 10 Games | W-L | P | PF | PA | O57.5 | U57.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Pittsburgh Home Stats |
8-2 | 58.60 | 39.30 | 19.30 | 5 | 5 | |
 Louisville Away Stats |
6-4 | 56.90 | 29.50 | 27.40 | 5 | 5 | |
- W-L = Wins-Losses
- P = Avg. Points
- PF = Avg. Points For
- PA = Avg. Points Against
- O57.5 = Games Over 57.5 Points
- U57.5 = Games Under 57.5 Points
Latest regular season and playoff games stats.
Louisville Cardinals Stats
Pittsburgh Stats
- 8 wins and 2 defeats in the last 10 games
- 6 wins and 4 defeats in the last 10 games on the road
- -4.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 6 of the last 10 games
- -4.5 Betting Line on the Road: Have covered the spread in 3 of the last 10 games on the road
- +4.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 5 of the last 10 games
- +4.5 Betting Line at Home: Have covered the spread in 9 of the last 10 home games
- Game Totals: An average of 61.90 pts in the previous 10 games
- Game Totals on the Road: An average of 56.90 pts in the previous 10 games on the road
- Over 57.5: Covered in 5 of the previous 10 games
- Over 57.5 on the Road: Covered in 5 of the previous 10 games on the road
- Team Totals: Have scored an average of 37.60 pts and allowed 24.30 pts in the last 10 games
- Team Totals on the Road: Have scored an average of 29.50 pts and allowed 27.40 pts in the last 10 games on the road
- Game Totals: An average of 59.80 pts in the previous 10 games
- Game Totals at Home: An average of 58.60 pts in the previous 10 home games
- Over 57.5: Covered in 4 of the previous 10 games
- Over 57.5 at Home: Covered in 5 of the previous 10 home games
- Team Totals: Have scored an average of 31.30 pts and allowed 28.50 pts in the last 10 games
- Team Totals at Home: Have scored an average of 39.30 pts and allowed 19.30 pts in the last 10 home games
| Atlantic Coast | W | L | PF | PA | N. Pts | Home | Away | Strk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Miami
|
10 | 2 | 409 | 166 | 243 | 7-1 | 3-1 | 4W |
Virginia
|
10 | 3 | 418 | 267 | 151 | 6-2 | 4-1 | 1L |
Georgia Tech
|
9 | 3 | 397 | 300 | 97 | 5-2 | 4-1 | 2L |
|
Pittsburgh
|
8 | 4 | 421 | 299 | 122 | 4-3 | 4-1 | 1L |
SMU
|
8 | 4 | 395 | 248 | 147 | 5-1 | 3-3 | 1L |
|
Louisville
|
8 | 4 | 362 | 253 | 109 | 5-3 | 3-1 | 1W |
Wake Forest
|
8 | 4 | 322 | 258 | 64 | 5-2 | 3-2 | 1L |
Duke
|
8 | 5 | 442 | 373 | 69 | 3-3 | 5-2 | 3W |
NC State
|
7 | 5 | 362 | 346 | 16 | 6-1 | 1-4 | 2W |
California
|
7 | 5 | 298 | 318 | -20 | 4-2 | 3-3 | 1W |
Clemson
|
7 | 5 | 344 | 245 | 99 | 3-4 | 4-1 | 4W |
Florida State
|
5 | 7 | 396 | 264 | 132 | 5-2 | 0-5 | 2L |
Stanford
|
4 | 8 | 226 | 350 | -124 | 4-2 | 0-6 | 1L |
North Carolina
|
4 | 8 | 231 | 294 | -63 | 2-4 | 2-4 | 3L |
Virginia Tech
|
3 | 9 | 257 | 362 | -105 | 2-5 | 1-4 | 4L |
Syracuse
|
3 | 9 | 242 | 419 | -177 | 2-4 | 1-5 | 8L |
Boston College
|
2 | 10 | 305 | 393 | -88 | 1-6 | 1-4 | 1W |
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