Michigan State vs USC Prediction, Picks & Odds | 20 Sep 2025

College Football Betting Preview: Michigan State vs USC

Michigan State square off against USC in this NCAAF Week 4 matchup at LA Memorial Coliseum, with kickoff scheduled for 23:00 on Saturday 20 September. Our betting preview features expert predictions, picks, the latest betting odds and H2H stats.

We’re Expecting USC to Win Big

There’s a case to be made for USC on the spread when they play Michigan State. Our prediction is that the betting favorites can cover the -18.5 line at odds of -110 considering they should be superior.

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Each Team Bidding to Secure Another Win

Michigan State Spartans claimed a home victory in their previous game. A 41-24 triumph against Youngstown State Penguins at Spartan Stadium made it three straight wins.

USC Trojans won last time out by a 33-17 scoreline. On the road against Purdue Boilermakers at Ross-Ade Stadium, they made it three wins on the spin.

Quarterbacks

Aidan Chiles

213.5 Passing Yards

Over -114

Under -114

Jayden Maiava

279.5 Passing Yards

Over -114

Under -114

Michigan State vs USC Prediction & Picks

We bring you the complete Michigan State vs USC betting insight, including our top match prediction, correct score forecast, player prop advice and a ready-made bet builder.

Game Prediction

The favorites at -18.5 on the spread really stand out in this college football matchup. We are prepared to wager at -110 and expect USC to cover this line.

We only publish our CFB predictions once we’ve got a clear and confident read on team news and the latest form. We also stay sharp by digging into the most valuable stats to support every pick we make.

Key Michigan State vs USC stats:

• The -18.5 line has been covered by USC in 2 consecutive games at home.

USC -18.5 Probability

The top betting apps are suggesting that our pick has a 52.4% chance of delivering a return. However, our cappers have this number between 55-60% based on their in-depth research. It’s the reason why we are recommending this college bet.

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Best Bet

USC -18.5 @ -110 Bet Now

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Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: Jayden Maiava Over 279.5 Passing Yards -114

The odds for Jayden Maiava (USC) to surpass 279.5 passing yards are -114. We’re happy to take him to cover the QB Passing Yards line and bettors can place this wager with confidence.

Latest Jayden Maiava Player Prop Odds

Passing Yards

Over 279.5

-114

Under 279.5

-114

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Makai Lemon Over 83.5 Receiving Yards -114

Makai Lemon (Michigan State) is available at -114 to rack up over 83.5 receiving yards. We feel confident that he’ll cover the Player Receiving Yards line, which looks generous.

Latest Makai Lemon Player Prop Odds

Receiving Yards

Over 83.5

-114

Under 83.5

-114

Correct Score Prediction

Michigan State 17 - 45 USC

A 45-17 win for the Trojans is clearly a risky bet although this could be an exciting correct score option where there’s the chance to enjoy a massive potential return.

Michigan State vs USC Odds

The odds and lines are updated on a frequent basis. You might therefore find that they are different to the ones listed for the betting predictions and bet builder tips.

USC Win on the Cards According to the Books

USC are massive -1000 favorites. They are regarded as 91% likely to win this college game judging by the sportsbooks’ latest Moneyline odds. Michigan State are the underdogs at +640 and they’re regarded as least likely to win.

18.5 is where the spread lies, with total points being 55.5 right now. A wager on the Totals allows football bettors to use the latest data to good effect. There’s the chance to back Under 55.5 at -105.

The top sportsbooks cover every college football matchup with a great mix of game lines and team props. Whether you prefer to bet before kickoff or during the action, make sure to explore all available options.

Moneyline

MSU

+640

USC

-1000

Point Spread

MSU +18.5

-110

USC -18.5

-110

Total Points

Under 55.5

-105

Over 55.5

-115

Player Odds

Receiving Yards

Makai Lemon (USC)

Over 83.5

-114

Under 83.5

-114

Lake McRee (USC)

Over 32.5

-114

Under 32.5

-114

Rushing Yards

Waymond Jordan (USC)

Over 77.5

-114

Under 77.5

-114

Passing Yards

Jayden Maiava (USC)

Over 279.5

-114

Under 279.5

-114

Aidan Chiles (MSU)

Over 213.5

-114

Under 213.5

-114

USC Have Seven Wins in Their Last Ten Home Games

USC own a 7-3 mark in their past 10 home games, averaging 41.50 points scored and 24.20 points allowed.

Michigan State have suffered four consecutive road defeats. They have a 2-8 record in their last 10 games on the road, averaging 16.80 points on offense and surrendering 27.90 on defense.

Last 10 Games		W-L	P	PF	PA	O55.5	U55.5
USC Home Stats		7-3	65.70	41.50	24.20	8	2
Michigan State Away Stats		2-8	44.70	16.80	27.90	0	10

• W-L = Wins-Losses
• P = Avg. Points
• PF = Avg. Points For
• PA = Avg. Points Against
• O55.5 = Games Over 55.5 Points
• U55.5 = Games Under 55.5 Points

Last 5 & H2H

Latest regular season and playoff games stats.

Michigan State Spartans Stats

USC Stats

Moneyline

• 5 wins and 5 defeats in the last 10 games
• 2 wins and 8 defeats in the last 10 games on the road

Moneyline

• 7 wins and 3 defeats in the last 10 games
• 8 wins and 2 defeats in the last 10 home games

Point Spread

• +18.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 6 of the last 10 games
• +18.5 Betting Line on the Road: Have covered the spread in 7 of the last 10 games on the road

Point Spread

• -18.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 3 of the last 10 games
• -18.5 Betting Line at Home: Have covered the spread in 4 of the last 10 home games

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 51.70 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals on the Road: An average of 44.70 pts in the previous 10 games on the road
• Over 55.5: Covered in 3 of the previous 10 games
• Over 55.5 on the Road: Has not been covered in any of the previous 10 games on the road
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 22.90 pts and allowed 28.80 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals on the Road: Have scored an average of 16.80 pts and allowed 27.90 pts in the last 10 games on the road

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 61.10 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals at Home: An average of 66.50 pts in the previous 10 home games
• Over 55.5: Covered in 6 of the previous 10 games
• Over 55.5 at Home: Covered in 8 of the previous 10 home games
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 37.30 pts and allowed 23.80 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals at Home: Have scored an average of 43.00 pts and allowed 23.50 pts in the last 10 home games

NCAAF Standings Select Season 2025/20262024/20252023/20242022/20232021/20222020/20212019/2020

Big Ten	W	L	PF	PA	N. Pts	Home	Away	Strk
Illinois	3	0	135	22	113	2-0	1-0	3W
Penn State	3	0	132	17	115	3-0	0-0	3W
Washington	2	0	108	31	77	2-0	0-0	2W
Indiana	3	0	156	23	133	3-0	0-0	3W
Rutgers	3	0	139	58	81	3-0	0-0	3W
USC	3	0	165	50	115	2-0	1-0	3W
Oregon	3	0	162	30	132	2-0	1-0	3W
Ohio State	3	0	121	16	105	3-0	0-0	3W
Nebraska	3	0	147	24	123	2-0	1-0	3W
Michigan State	3	0	106	70	36	3-0	0-0	3W
Maryland	3	0	103	33	70	3-0	0-0	3W
Iowa	2	1	94	30	64	2-0	0-1	1W
Michigan	2	1	110	44	66	2-0	0-1	1W
Minnesota	2	1	103	37	66	2-0	0-1	1L
Purdue	2	1	82	50	32	2-1	0-0	1L
Wisconsin	2	1	73	48	25	2-0	0-1	1L
Northwestern	1	2	59	64	-5	1-1	0-1	1L
UCLA	0	3	43	108	-65	0-2	0-1	3L