New Mexico St vs New Mexico Prediction, Picks & Odds | 27 Sep 2025

College Football Betting Preview: New Mexico St vs New Mexico

New Mexico St face off against New Mexico in this NCAAF Week 5 matchup at University Stadium, Albuquerque, with kickoff scheduled for 16:00 on Saturday 27 September. Our betting preview features expert predictions, picks, the latest betting odds and H2H stats.

The Total Line Looks Too Generous to Miss

We’re confident that Over 53.5 is the value play at -115. We’re expecting New Mexico and New Mexico St to rack up the points, so we’ll have a bet on the totals.

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New Mexico Beat NM State in their Last Clash

New Mexico State Aggies were defeated in their previous game. On the road, they suffered a 49-14 reverse against Louisiana Tech Bulldogs at Joe Aillet Stadium.

New Mexico Lobos have triumphed in back-to-back games. The latest of these was on the road where UCLA Bruins were beaten 35-10 at Rose Bowl.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The last head-to-head saw New Mexico claim a 50-40 win over NM State at Aggie Memorial Stadium. New Mexico have triumphed in three of the previous 5 clashes between these teams.

New Mexico St vs New Mexico Prediction & Picks

We cover the essential New Mexico St vs New Mexico betting angles, featuring our main match prediction, correct score guidance and a carefully crafted bet builder.

Game Prediction

There could be lots of points being racked up during this college football matchup, with our pick being Over 53.5 points in total. Odds of -115 look worth taking for this outcome.

Sportsgambler.com brings strong college football expertise, built on knowing the team news as soon as it’s confirmed. Recent form plays a big part in our CFB picks and we always back it up with the most relevant stats.

Key New Mexico St vs New Mexico stats:

• The 53.5 line has been covered in 6 of the last 10 New Mexico St games.
• The 53.5 line has been covered in 3 of the last 5 New Mexico St games.
• The 53.5 line has been covered in the last 2 New Mexico St games on the road.
• The 53.5 line has been covered in the last 10 New Mexico games at home.
• The 53.5 line has been covered in 15 of the last 20 New Mexico games.

Over 53.5 Probability

The top sportsbooks imply that our pick has a 53.5% prospect of winning. However, our research has found that the actual probability is closer to 60%. The wager can be recommended for this precise reason.

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Best Bet

Over 53.5 Points @ -115 Bet Now

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Correct Score Prediction

NM State 20 - 41 New Mexico

There’s a massive payout on the cards should you correctly predict the correct score. We’re siding with New Mexico to enjoy a 41-20 victory which will hopefully go close.

New Mexico St vs New Mexico Odds

The odds and lines are updated on a frequent basis. You might therefore find that they are different to the ones listed for the betting predictions and bet builder tips.

New Mexico Heavy Favorites to Win

You might not get rich backing New Mexico at -625. However, the sportsbooks’ betting odds imply a 86% chance of winning this college game. For those wanting to back New Mexico St, you will find +450 about the underdogs.

The spread is currently 14.5, with the total points line at 53.5. The beauty of the Totals is that you only have to choose from one of two options. If you fancy Over 53.5, this outcome can be backed at -115. 

When it comes to college football, the top betting apps deliver a wide variety of game lines and team props. With so many options available, it’s worth taking your time to find the wager that fits your view of the matchup.

Moneyline

NM State

+450

UNM

-625

Point Spread

NM State +14.5

-105

UNM -14.5

-115

Total Points

Under 53.5

-105

Over 53.5

-115

Player Props & Micro Betting

As an alternative to the game lines, check out the quarterback and player props that are available. These can be a great alternative if you want to focus on a player’s performance. The gambling sites will provide lots of options.

Micro betting is an exciting way to wager on college football. There are a huge range of live lines and it’s a simple case of predicting what is going to happen next. Field Goal Outcome, Next Drive Result and Next Play Result are often among the options.

Past Ten New Mexico Home Games Feature Six Losses

New Mexico have four wins and six losses in the last 10 games at home, putting up 34.00 points on average and giving up 38.90.

NM State own a 2-8 mark in their past 10 road games, averaging 16.60 points on offense and surrendering 37.10 on defense.

The last University Stadium, Albuquerque meeting saw NM State beat New Mexico 27-17. Across 3 head-to-heads at University Stadium, Albuquerque, New Mexico have registered two wins and NM State one.

Last 10 Games		W-L	P	PF	PA	O53.5	U53.5
New Mexico Home Stats		4-6	72.90	34.00	38.90	10	0
New Mexico St Away Stats		2-8	53.70	16.60	37.10	4	6

• W-L = Wins-Losses
• P = Avg. Points
• PF = Avg. Points For
• PA = Avg. Points Against
• O53.5 = Games Over 53.5 Points
• U53.5 = Games Under 53.5 Points

Last 5 & H2H

Latest regular season and playoff games stats.

New Mexico State Aggies Stats

New Mexico Lobos Stats

Moneyline

• 4 wins and 6 defeats in the last 10 games
• 2 wins and 8 defeats in the last 10 games on the road

Moneyline

• 6 wins and 4 defeats in the last 10 games
• 4 wins and 6 defeats in the last 10 home games

Point Spread

• +14.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 6 of the last 10 games
• +14.5 Betting Line on the Road: Have covered the spread in 3 of the last 10 games on the road

Point Spread

• -14.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 2 of the last 10 games
• -14.5 Betting Line at Home: Have covered the spread in 2 of the last 10 home games

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 54.10 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals on the Road: An average of 53.70 pts in the previous 10 games on the road
• Over 53.5: Covered in 6 of the previous 10 games
• Over 53.5 on the Road: Covered in 4 of the previous 10 games on the road
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 21.50 pts and allowed 32.60 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals on the Road: Have scored an average of 16.60 pts and allowed 37.10 pts in the last 10 games on the road

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 62.90 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals at Home: An average of 72.90 pts in the previous 10 home games
• Over 53.5: Covered in 6 of the previous 10 games
• Over 53.5 at Home: Covered in the previous 10 home games
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 32.60 pts and allowed 30.30 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals at Home: Have scored an average of 34.00 pts and allowed 38.90 pts in the last 10 home games

NCAAF Standings Select Season 2025/20262024/20252023/20242022/20232021/20222020/20212019/2020

Mountain West	W	L	PF	PA	N. Pts	Home	Away	Strk
UNLV	4	0	147	113	34	2-0	2-0	4W
Fresno State	4	1	164	100	64	2-0	2-1	4W
Utah State	3	1	147	97	50	3-0	0-1	2W
Boise State	2	1	107	85	22	1-0	1-1	2W
New Mexico	2	1	84	66	18	1-0	1-1	2W
San Diego State	2	1	89	36	53	2-0	0-1	1W
Hawaii	3	2	110	106	4	3-1	0-1	1L
Wyoming	2	2	67	75	-8	1-1	1-1	2L
Air Force	1	2	116	111	5	1-1	0-1	2L
Colorado State	1	2	58	72	-14	1-1	0-1	1L
San Jose State	1	2	52	82	-30	1-1	0-1	1W
Nevada	1	3	60	108	-48	1-1	0-2	2L

Conference USA	W	L	PF	PA	N. Pts	Home	Away	Strk
Delaware Blue Hens	3	1	124	105	19	2-0	1-1	2W
Louisiana Tech	3	1	110	57	53	3-0	0-1	2W
Western Kentucky	3	1	148	91	57	3-0	0-1	1W
New Mexico St	2	1	54	66	-12	2-0	0-1	1L
FIU	2	2	96	109	-13	2-1	0-1	1L
Jacksonville State	2	2	123	92	31	2-0	0-2	1W
Kennesaw State	2	2	73	100	-27	2-0	0-2	2W
Missouri State	2	2	86	131	-45	1-1	1-1	1W
Liberty	1	3	78	95	-17	1-1	0-2	3L
M. Tennessee	1	3	66	131	-65	0-2	1-1	1L
UTEP	1	3	93	103	-10	1-1	0-2	2L
Sam Houston	0	4	65	171	-106	0-1	0-3	4L