NC State vs Duke Prediction, Picks & Odds | 20 Sep 2025

College Football Betting Preview: NC State vs Duke

NC State clash with Duke in this NCAAF Week 4 matchup at Wallace Wade Stadium, with kickoff scheduled for 16:00 on Saturday 20 September. Our betting preview features expert predictions, picks, the latest betting odds and H2H stats.

NC State to Make Life Tough for Duke

There’s the opportunity to back NC State to cover the +2.5 line against Duke. Betting them on the spread seems the logical play and there is -104 now available.

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Duke Claimed 29-19 Win in Previous H2H

North Carolina State Wolfpack have won their previous three games. A 34-24 triumph recently occurred on the road at Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium when playing Wake Forest.

Duke Blue Devils have suffered defeat in their last two games. Most recently, a 34-27 scoreline occurred on the road at Yulman Stadium against Tulane Green Wave.

Head-to-Head Statistics

Duke have claimed victories in the last two matchups against NC State. At Wallace Wade Stadium, the scoreline was 24-3 and then we saw 29-19 at Carter Finley Stadium. Duke have won two of the past 3 games that these teams have played.

Quarterbacks

CJ Bailey

243.5 Passing Yards

Over -114

Under -114

Darian Mensah

293.5 Passing Yards

Over -114

Under -114

NC State vs Duke Prediction & Picks

Approach NC State vs Duke fully prepared with our expert match prediction, likely score outcome, standout player prop picks and a hand-picked bet builder.

Game Prediction

We wouldn’t be surprised to see NC State win this college football showdown. In terms of landing extra value, it makes sense to take +2.5 when it comes to the spread at -104.

Our CFB predictions are built after tracking the latest team news and reviewing recent form. We also dive into stats, which often serve as a solid barometer for how the action might unfold.

Key NC State vs Duke stats:

• The +2.5 line has been covered by NC State in 4 consecutive games on the road.
• The +2.5 line has been covered by NC State in 7 of their last 10 games.
• The +2.5 line has been covered by NC State in 13 of their last 20 games.
• The -2.5 line hasn’t been covered by Duke in 3 of their last 5 games.
• The -2.5 line hasn’t been covered by Duke in 2 consecutive games.

NC State +2.5 Probability

The top betting apps are suggesting that our pick has a 51% chance of delivering a return. Our experts think there’s a stronger chance of success and calculate the probability to be closer to 60%. It is therefore regarded as a value bet.

If you’re hunting for bigger odds, then a Bet Builder could be the perfect way to go. Combine NC State to cover the line with other picks until you’re happy with the overall price.

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Best Bet

NC State +2.5 @ -104 Bet Now

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Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: Darian Mensah Under 295.5 Passing Yards -114

You can place a bet on Darian Mensah (Duke) at -114 to have less than 295.5 passing yards. We're confident he’ll fall short of the QB Passing Yards line, so we're backing the Under.

Latest Darian Mensah Player Prop Odds

Passing Yards

Over 293.5

-114

Under 293.5

-114

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Justin Joly Under 40.5 Receiving Yards -114

The odds for Justin Joly (NC State) to finish with fewer than 40.5 receiving yards are -114. There’s no reason to doubt our instinct, so we’ll bet on him falling short of the Player Receiving Yards line.

Latest Justin Joly Player Prop Odds

Receiving Yards

Over 40.5

-114

Under 40.5

-114

Correct Score Prediction

NC State 34 - 31 Duke

NC State are available at massive odds to register a 34-31 victory and they might have the edge. This should be a close matchup and there won’t be much between the teams.

NC State vs Duke Odds

The odds and lines are updated on a frequent basis. You might therefore find that they are different to the ones listed for the betting predictions and bet builder tips.

Duke Have the Shortest Odds to Win

Duke are -147 favorites and that means a 60% chance of winning this college game according to the Moneyline betting odds with the sportsbooks. NC State are trading at bigger odds than their opponents and they can be backed at +122.

The current spread is 2.5 and the total points line is 58.5. A wager on the Totals allows football bettors to use the latest data to good effect. There’s the chance to back Under 58.5 at -118.

Consider every angle when placing your college football wagers. The best betting sites have a huge selection of team props and game lines and it’s all about finding a bet which matches your prediction of the game.

Moneyline

NC State

+122

Duke

-147

Point Spread

NC State +2.5

-104

Duke -2.5

-118

Total Points

Under 58.5

-118

Over 58.5

-104

Player Odds

Receiving Yards

Cooper Barkate (Duke)

Over 63.5

-114

Under 63.5

-114

Que'Sean Brown (Duke)

Over 50.5

-114

Under 50.5

-114

Wesley Grimes (NC State)

Over 41.5

-114

Under 41.5

-114

Justin Joly (NC State)

Over 40.5

-114

Under 40.5

-114

Andrel Anthony (Duke)

Over 34.5

-114

Under 34.5

-114

Terrell Anderson (NC State)

Over 31.5

-114

Under 31.5

-114

Rushing Yards

Hollywood Smothers (NC State)

Over 97.5

-114

Under 97.5

-114

Jaquez Moore (Duke)

Over 39.5

-114

Under 39.5

-114

CJ Bailey (NC State)

Over 23.5

-114

Under 23.5

-114

Passing Yards

Darian Mensah (Duke)

Over 293.5

-114

Under 293.5

-114

CJ Bailey (NC State)

Over 243.5

-114

Under 243.5

-114

Duke Have Collected Eight Wins From Last Ten at Home

Duke have eight wins and two losses in the last 10 games at home, putting up 26.50 points per matchup and giving up 20.70.

NC State have six wins and four losses in the last 10 road games, putting up 26.40 points on average and giving up 27.30.

Duke defeated NC State 24-3 when the teams last met at Wallace Wade Stadium.

Last 10 Games		W-L	P	PF	PA	O58.5	U58.5
Duke Home Stats		8-2	47.20	26.50	20.70	3	7
NC State Away Stats		6-4	53.70	26.40	27.30	4	6

• W-L = Wins-Losses
• P = Avg. Points
• PF = Avg. Points For
• PA = Avg. Points Against
• O58.5 = Games Over 58.5 Points
• U58.5 = Games Under 58.5 Points

Last 5 & H2H

Latest regular season and playoff games stats.

North Carolina State Wolfpack Stats

Duke Blue Devils Stats

Moneyline

• 6 wins and 4 defeats in the last 10 games
• 6 wins and 4 defeats in the last 10 games on the road

Moneyline

• 5 wins and 5 defeats in the last 10 games
• 8 wins and 2 defeats in the last 10 home games

Point Spread

• +2.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 7 of the last 10 games
• +2.5 Betting Line on the Road: Have covered the spread in 7 of the last 10 games on the road

Point Spread

• -2.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 5 of the last 10 games
• -2.5 Betting Line at Home: Have covered the spread in 7 of the last 10 home games

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 55.90 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals on the Road: An average of 53.70 pts in the previous 10 games on the road
• Over 58.5: Covered in 4 of the previous 10 games
• Over 58.5 on the Road: Covered in 4 of the previous 10 games on the road
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 29.70 pts and allowed 26.20 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals on the Road: Have scored an average of 26.40 pts and allowed 27.30 pts in the last 10 games on the road

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 58.40 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals at Home: An average of 47.20 pts in the previous 10 home games
• Over 58.5: Covered in 6 of the previous 10 games
• Over 58.5 at Home: Covered in 3 of the previous 10 home games
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 27.50 pts and allowed 30.90 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals at Home: Have scored an average of 26.50 pts and allowed 20.70 pts in the last 10 home games

NCAAF Standings Select Season 2025/20262024/20252023/20242022/20232021/20222020/20212019/2020

Atlantic Coast	W	L	PF	PA	N. Pts	Home	Away	Strk
California	3	0	96	32	64	2-0	1-0	3W
Florida State	2	0	108	20	88	2-0	0-0	2W
Georgia Tech	3	0	110	53	57	2-0	1-0	3W
Louisville	2	0	79	31	48	2-0	0-0	2W
Miami	3	0	121	39	82	3-0	0-0	3W
NC State	3	0	93	72	21	2-0	1-0	3W
Wake Forest	2	1	76	53	23	2-1	0-0	1L
Virginia	2	1	134	58	76	2-0	0-1	1W
SMU	2	1	115	71	44	1-1	1-0	1W
Syracuse	2	1	119	89	30	2-0	0-1	2W
Pittsburgh	2	1	130	57	73	2-0	0-1	1L
North Carolina	2	1	75	57	18	1-1	1-0	2W
Boston College	1	2	126	82	44	1-0	0-2	2L
Clemson	1	2	58	57	1	1-1	0-1	1L
Duke	1	2	91	96	-5	1-1	0-1	2L
Stanford	1	2	53	70	-17	1-0	0-2	1W
Virginia Tech	0	3	57	113	-56	0-2	0-1	3L