SMU vs TCU Prediction, Picks & Odds | 20 Sep 2025

College Football Betting Preview: SMU vs TCU

SMU clash with TCU in this NCAAF Week 4 matchup at Amon G. Carter Stadium, with kickoff scheduled for 12:00 on Saturday 20 September. Our betting preview features expert predictions, picks, the latest betting odds and H2H stats.

We’re Expecting a Low Points Total

TCU and SMU are unlikely to reach the 62.5 points line in our opinion. Therefore, chance an Under bet at -110 and hope the teams don’t reach that number.

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SMU Beat TCU in their Last H2H Battle

SMU Mustangs got the win in their previous game. A 28-10 triumph occurred on the road at Robert W. Plaster Stadium when playing Missouri State Bears.

Texas Christian Horned Frogs won their last game 42-21, making it successive victories. This was a home win at Amon G. Carter Stadium against Abilene Christian Wildcats.

Head-to-Head Statistics

SMU won the most recent matchup between these teams. A 66-42 victory was registered against TCU at Gerald J. Ford Stadium. SMU have won three of the past 5 games that these teams have played.

Quarterbacks

Kevin Jennings

271.5 Passing Yards

Over -114

Under -114

Josh Hoover

320.5 Passing Yards

Over -114

Under -114

SMU vs TCU Prediction & Picks

We dive into the top SMU vs TCU betting angles, including our main match prediction, correct score play, standout player prop picks and a bet builder tailored for value.

Game Prediction

The totals for this college football matchup provides lots of value at -110. The betting line is set at 62.5 and we’d be surprised if the combined points total exceeds that amount.

The CFB handicappers at Sportsgambler.com stay on top of injuries and team form that could impact the outcome. We also leave no stone unturned when analyzing the latest stats to support every prediction.

Key SMU vs TCU stats:

• The 62.5 line hasn’t been covered in the last 9 SMU games on the road.
• The 62.5 line hasn’t been covered in 15 of the last 20 SMU games on the road.
• The 62.5 line hasn’t been covered in 6 of the last 10 TCU games.
• The 62.5 line hasn’t been covered in 3 of the last 5 TCU games.

Under 62.5 Probability

The top sportsbooks imply that our pick has a 52.4% prospect of winning. However, we think that the probability is close to 60% taking all factors into consideration. This college bet can therefore be backed with confidence.

If you’re wanting to wager Under on the Totals, then you can aim for bigger odds. In order to do this, you simply move the line to where you feel a winning return can still be found.

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Best Bet

Under 62.5 Points @ -110 Bet Now

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Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: Josh Hoover Under 315.5 Passing Yards -114

Josh Hoover (TCU) is available at -114 to end with fewer than 315.5 passing yards. There’s no reason to doubt our instinct, so we’ll bet on him falling short of the QB Passing Yards line.

Latest Josh Hoover Player Prop Odds

Passing Yards

Over 320.5

-114

Under 320.5

-114

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T.J. Harden Under 70.5 Rushing Yards -114

You can back T.J. Harden (SMU) at -114 to finish with fewer than 70.5 rushing yards. There’s no reason to doubt our instinct, so we’ll bet on him falling short of the Player Rushing Yards line.

Latest T.J. Harden Player Prop Odds

Rushing Yards

Over 70.5

-114

Under 70.5

-114

Correct Score Prediction

SMU 23 - 34 TCU

Should you wish to go for a speculative bet, try TCU to triumph 34-23 on the correct score lines. This should be a fun wager which could potentially yield a huge return.

SMU vs TCU Odds

The odds and lines are updated on a frequent basis. You might therefore find that they are different to the ones listed for the betting predictions and bet builder tips.

Books Expecting a TCU Victory

Sportsbooks’ favorites TCU are regarded as likeliest victors for this college game and the -263 about them triumphing means a 72% chance based on their current Moneyline betting odds. For those wanting to oppose the market leader, you can get +205 about SMU.

There is a spread of 7.5 and total points has a line of 62.5. A Total wager is always available and can often provide value selections. Those expecting a low total can back Under 62.5 at -110.

Whether you are wagering pre-game or in-game on college football, the top betting apps let you feast on a wide range of team props and game lines. The selections are practically endless, and it’s awesome to have so many options at your fingertips.

Moneyline

SMU

+205

TCU

-263

Point Spread

SMU +7.5

-120

TCU -7.5

-102

Total Points

Under 62.5

-110

Over 62.5

-110

Player Odds

Receiving Yards

Jordan Dwyer (TCU)

Over 79.5

-114

Under 79.5

-114

Romello Brinson (SMU)

Over 75.5

-114

Under 75.5

-114

Eric McAlister (TCU)

Over 64.5

-114

Under 64.5

-114

Jalen Cooper (SMU)

Over 50.5

-114

Under 50.5

-114

Rushing Yards

T.J. Harden (SMU)

Over 70.5

-114

Under 70.5

-114

Passing Yards

Josh Hoover (TCU)

Over 320.5

-114

Under 320.5

-114

Kevin Jennings (SMU)

Over 271.5

-114

Under 271.5

-114

TCU Racking Up the Home Wins

TCU have strung together four in a row at Amon G. Carter Stadium. They own a 7-3 mark in their past 10 home games, averaging 37.40 points on offense and surrendering 21.80 on defense.

SMU are 8-2 in their last 10 games on the road, putting up 28.00 points on average and giving up 21.40.

TCU beat SMU 34-17 in their most recent meeting at Amon G. Carter Stadium. Looking back at the past 3 head-to-head meetings at Amon G. Carter Stadium, SMU have posted two victories, with TCU earning one.

Last 10 Games		W-L	P	PF	PA	O62.5	U62.5
TCU Home Stats		7-3	59.20	37.40	21.80	4	6
SMU Away Stats		8-2	49.40	28.00	21.40	1	9

• W-L = Wins-Losses
• P = Avg. Points
• PF = Avg. Points For
• PA = Avg. Points Against
• O62.5 = Games Over 62.5 Points
• U62.5 = Games Under 62.5 Points

Last 5 & H2H

Latest regular season and playoff games stats.

SMU Stats

Texas Christian Horned Frogs Stats

Moneyline

• 7 wins and 3 defeats in the last 10 games
• 8 wins and 2 defeats in the last 10 games on the road

Moneyline

• 8 wins and 2 defeats in the last 10 games
• 7 wins and 3 defeats in the last 10 home games

Point Spread

• +7.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 9 of the last 10 games
• +7.5 Betting Line on the Road: Have covered the spread in 8 of the last 10 games on the road

Point Spread

• -7.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 5 of the last 10 games
• -7.5 Betting Line at Home: Have covered the spread in 6 of the last 10 home games

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 57.70 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals on the Road: An average of 49.40 pts in the previous 10 games on the road
• Over 62.5: Covered in 4 of the previous 10 games
• Over 62.5 on the Road: Covered in 1 of the previous 10 games on the road
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 34.10 pts and allowed 23.60 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals on the Road: Have scored an average of 28.00 pts and allowed 21.40 pts in the last 10 games on the road

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 53.20 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals at Home: An average of 57.40 pts in the previous 10 home games
• Over 62.5: Covered in 4 of the previous 10 games
• Over 62.5 at Home: Covered in 4 of the previous 10 home games
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 33.20 pts and allowed 20.00 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals at Home: Have scored an average of 36.40 pts and allowed 21.00 pts in the last 10 home games

NCAAF Standings Select Season 2025/20262024/20252023/20242022/20232021/20222020/20212019/2020

Big 12	W	L	PF	PA	N. Pts	Home	Away	Strk
Arizona	3	0	111	26	85	3-0	0-0	3W
BYU	2	0	96	3	93	2-0	0-0	2W
Houston	3	0	98	29	69	2-0	1-0	3W
Iowa State	4	0	119	57	62	2-0	2-0	4W
TCU	2	0	90	35	55	1-0	1-0	2W
Texas Tech	3	0	174	35	139	3-0	0-0	3W
UCF	2	0	85	17	68	2-0	0-0	2W
Utah	3	0	137	25	112	1-0	2-0	3W
Baylor	2	1	114	90	24	1-1	1-0	2W
Cincinnati	2	1	121	40	81	2-1	0-0	2W
Kansas	2	1	108	56	52	2-0	0-1	1L
West Virginia	2	1	86	44	42	2-0	0-1	1W
Oklahoma State	1	1	30	76	-46	1-0	0-1	1L
Colorado	1	2	71	70	1	1-1	0-1	1L
Kansas State	1	3	97	106	-9	1-2	0-1	2L

Atlantic Coast	W	L	PF	PA	N. Pts	Home	Away	Strk
California	3	0	96	32	64	2-0	1-0	3W
Florida State	2	0	108	20	88	2-0	0-0	2W
Georgia Tech	3	0	110	53	57	2-0	1-0	3W
Louisville	2	0	79	31	48	2-0	0-0	2W
Miami	3	0	121	39	82	3-0	0-0	3W
NC State	3	0	93	72	21	2-0	1-0	3W
Wake Forest	2	1	76	53	23	2-1	0-0	1L
Virginia	2	1	134	58	76	2-0	0-1	1W
SMU	2	1	115	71	44	1-1	1-0	1W
Syracuse	2	1	119	89	30	2-0	0-1	2W
Pittsburgh	2	1	130	57	73	2-0	0-1	1L
North Carolina	2	1	75	57	18	1-1	1-0	2W
Boston College	1	2	126	82	44	1-0	0-2	2L
Clemson	1	2	58	57	1	1-1	0-1	1L
Duke	1	2	91	96	-5	1-1	0-1	2L
Stanford	1	2	53	70	-17	1-0	0-2	1W
Virginia Tech	0	3	57	113	-56	0-2	0-1	3L