Tennessee vs Mississippi State Prediction, Picks & Odds | 27 Sep 2025
College Football Betting Preview: Tennessee vs Mississippi State
Tennessee clash with Mississippi State in this NCAAF Week 5 matchup at Davis Wade Stadium, with kickoff scheduled for 16:15 on Saturday, September 27. Our betting preview features expert predictions, picks, the latest betting odds and H2H stats.
Our prediction is that Mississippi State will cover the line and prove to be competitive. It’s currently set at +7.5 against Tennessee and that makes plenty of appeal, with -110 available.
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Tennessee Volunteers previous game saw them claim a 56-24 home win over UAB Blazers at Neyland Stadium.
Mississippi State Bulldogs were winners for the fourth straight time in their last game. Landing a 38-10 home victory against Northern Illinois Huskies at Davis Wade Stadium.
Head-to-Head Statistics
These two teams last met at Neyland Stadium, with Tennessee claiming the win. Beating Mississippi State by a 33-14 scoreline.
Quarterbacks
Joey Aguilar
Blake Shapen
Tennessee vs Mississippi State Prediction & Picks
Unlock a complete betting breakdown for Tennessee vs Mississippi State, featuring our expert match prediction, expected final score, standout player prop picks and a ready-to-play bet builder.
Game Prediction
We’re confident that Mississippi State can push for a victory in this college football showdown and the +7.5 about them on the spread makes lots of appeal. Take -110 that they cover the line.
Our team of college football handicappers track current injuries closely. Combined with recent form, this helps us identify the best value odds. A data-led approach backed by key stats and the latest team news keeps our analysis sharp.
Key Tennessee vs Mississippi State stats:
MS State +7.5 Probability
According to the best betting apps, our pick has a 52.4% chance of winning. Our experts think there’s a stronger chance of success and calculate the probability to be 55-60%. It’s why we think it’s worth placing this college bet.
If you want a viable alternative to backing Mississippi State on the spread, then the Winning Margin lines could be up your street. Choose from a wide range of options.
Explore the latest free bet promotions and welcome bonuses in our expert betting guide, updated with the best offers.
Player Prop Picks
You can back Fluff Bothwell (Mississippi State) at -115 to hit paydirt. The Anytime Touchdown Scorer odds are appealing from all angles and we’re willing to take a chance on him.
You can back Joey Aguilar (Tennessee) at -114 surpass 272.5 passing yards. We’re tempted to back him to cover the QB Passing Yards line, with plenty of juice on offer.
Same Game Parlay Picks
We’ve got a same game parlay with three options: Mississippi State +7.5, Under 63.5 points and Fluff Bothwell (Mississippi State) to record a touchdown.
There are many options when you place a same game parlay. You can go through the football lines and identify your favorite outcomes before combining the odds on the bet slip. Personalised betting doesn’t come any better.
Correct Score Prediction
28
-
27
MS State
Don’t pass up the opportunity to have a speculative bet on the Vols to land a 28-27 win. We don’t think that there will be too much between the teams.
Tennessee vs Mississippi State Odds
The odds and lines are updated on a frequent basis. You might therefore find that they are different to the ones listed for the betting predictions and bet builder tips.
The sportsbooks have Tennessee at -294 when it comes to the Moneyline betting, implying the market leaders are 75% likely to win this college game according to the latest odds. Mississippi State are the underdogs at +235 and they’re regarded as least likely to win.
The current spread is 7.5 and total points is 63.5. A Total wager is always available and can often provide value selections. If you’re going for Under 63.5, this outcome can be backed at -110.
Make sure to explore all angles before placing your college football bets. The top sportsbooks offer a wide range of game lines and team props and it’s all about finding a wager which matches your prediction of the matchup.
The First Touchdown Scorer favorite is Fluff Bothwell at +750. Similar odds can be found if you’re interested in this player to register the final TD.
Touchdown
Receiving Yards
Rushing Yards
Passing Yards
Micro betting provides a rollercoaster ride for college football bettors. It can be great to enjoy the live lines, with the opportunity to wager on the Next Scoring Play. Watch the live action before deciding which way to go.
Mississippi State Keep Cashing In at Home
Mississippi State are riding three straight wins at Davis Wade Stadium. They own a 5-5 mark in their past 10 home games, averaging 34.00 points on offense and surrendering 27.40 on defense.
Tennessee have four wins and six losses in the last 10 road games, averaging 23.60 points on offense and surrendering 26.60 on defense.
| Last 10 Games | W-L | P | PF | PA | O63.5 | U63.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Mississippi State Home Stats |
5-5 | 61.40 | 34.00 | 27.40 | 3 | 7 | |
 Tennessee Away Stats |
4-6 | 50.20 | 23.60 | 26.60 | 0 | 10 | |
- W-L = Wins-Losses
- P = Avg. Points
- PF = Avg. Points For
- PA = Avg. Points Against
- O63.5 = Games Over 63.5 Points
- U63.5 = Games Under 63.5 Points
Latest regular season and playoff games stats.
Tennessee Volunteers Stats
Mississippi State Bulldogs Stats
- 7 wins and 3 defeats in the last 10 games
- 4 wins and 6 defeats in the last 10 games on the road
- -7.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 7 of the last 10 games
- -7.5 Betting Line on the Road: Have covered the spread in 3 of the last 10 games on the road
- +7.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 5 of the last 10 games
- +7.5 Betting Line at Home: Have covered the spread in 5 of the last 10 home games
- Game Totals: An average of 64.00 pts in the previous 10 games
- Game Totals on the Road: An average of 50.20 pts in the previous 10 games on the road
- Over 63.5: Covered in 4 of the previous 10 games
- Over 63.5 on the Road: Has not been covered in any of the previous 10 games on the road
- Team Totals: Have scored an average of 40.10 pts and allowed 23.90 pts in the last 10 games
- Team Totals on the Road: Have scored an average of 23.60 pts and allowed 26.60 pts in the last 10 games on the road
- Game Totals: An average of 55.80 pts in the previous 10 games
- Game Totals at Home: An average of 61.40 pts in the previous 10 home games
- Over 63.5: Covered in 2 of the previous 10 games
- Over 63.5 at Home: Covered in 3 of the previous 10 home games
- Team Totals: Have scored an average of 30.10 pts and allowed 25.70 pts in the last 10 games
- Team Totals at Home: Have scored an average of 34.00 pts and allowed 27.40 pts in the last 10 home games
| Southeastern | W | L | PF | PA | N. Pts | Home | Away | Strk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Georgia
|
11 | 1 | 387 | 200 | 187 | 6-1 | 5-0 | 8W |
Ole Miss
|
11 | 1 | 447 | 241 | 206 | 8-0 | 3-1 | 5W |
Texas A&M
|
11 | 1 | 436 | 263 | 173 | 7-0 | 4-1 | 1L |
Alabama
|
10 | 2 | 399 | 198 | 201 | 6-1 | 4-1 | 2W |
Oklahoma
|
10 | 2 | 317 | 167 | 150 | 6-1 | 4-1 | 4W |
Vanderbilt
|
10 | 2 | 473 | 263 | 210 | 7-0 | 3-2 | 3W |
Texas
|
9 | 3 | 355 | 237 | 118 | 7-0 | 2-3 | 2W |
Missouri
|
8 | 4 | 386 | 233 | 153 | 6-2 | 2-2 | 1W |
|
Tennessee
|
8 | 4 | 489 | 345 | 144 | 5-3 | 3-1 | 1L |
LSU
|
7 | 5 | 262 | 220 | 42 | 6-1 | 1-4 | 1L |
Kentucky
|
5 | 7 | 276 | 317 | -41 | 4-3 | 1-4 | 2L |
Auburn
|
5 | 7 | 321 | 248 | 73 | 3-4 | 2-3 | 1L |
|
Mississippi State
|
5 | 7 | 366 | 350 | 16 | 3-4 | 2-3 | 3L |
Florida
|
4 | 8 | 259 | 288 | -29 | 4-3 | 0-5 | 1W |
South Carolina
|
4 | 8 | 272 | 265 | 7 | 4-4 | 0-4 | 1L |
Arkansas
|
2 | 10 | 395 | 406 | -11 | 2-5 | 0-5 | 10L |
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