Texas vs Florida Prediction, Picks & Odds | 04 Oct 2025

By Joshua Davis, NCAAF Analyst | Published: 2 hours ago | 4 min read

Texas Longhorns

American Football NCAAF Ben Hill Griffin Stadium Sat 4 Oct 15:30

Florida Gators

Prediction
Bet Builder
Odds
Player Props
Stats
Standings

College Football Betting Preview: Texas vs Florida

Texas go up against Florida in this NCAAF Week 6 matchup at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium, with kickoff scheduled for 15:30 on Saturday 4 October. Our betting preview features expert predictions, picks, the latest betting odds and H2H stats.

The Value Lies With Florida

We’re confident that Florida can produce a strong performance against Texas. Our prediction is that they’ll cover the spread of +5.5 and you can currently get -110.

Following our spread pick? Secure the best BetMGM promo code and get the full breakdown in our expert site review ahead of making your move.

49-17 Texas Triumph in Previous Head-to-Head

Texas Longhorns made it three consecutive wins after a 55-0 home success over Sam Houston Bearkats at DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium.

Florida Gators have suffered defeat in their last three games. Most recently, a 26-7 scoreline occurred on the road at Hard Rock Stadium against Miami Hurricanes.

Head-to-Head Statistics

These two teams last met at DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium, with Texas claiming the win. Beating Florida by a 49-17 scoreline.

Quarterbacks

Arch Manning

DJ Lagway

Texas vs Florida Prediction & Picks

We’ve got your Texas vs Florida bets covered, including our expert match prediction, top correct score pick, must-see player props and a tailored bet builder built for value.

Game Prediction

We’re making Florida against the spread our pick for this college football showdown. The line is favorably set at +5.5 and you can secure -110 that this happens.

It’s important to know which players are unavailable for the upcoming action along with the current form of each team. If you're after stats, you're in the right place because they form the foundation of our CFB predictions.

Key Texas vs Florida stats:

The +5.5 line has been covered by Florida in 7 consecutive games at home.
The +5.5 line has been covered by Florida in 8 of their last 10 games at home.
The +5.5 line has been covered by Florida in 15 of their last 20 games at home.

Florida +5.5 Probability

The top betting apps make it a 52.4% chance that our pick is settled as a winner. Taking all factors into consideration, our cappers think there’s a stronger chance of success and estimate the probability to be closer to 60%. The bet can be recommended for this precise reason.

Looking for Bigger Odds?

If you’re in pursuit of bigger odds, then a Bet Builder could be a way forward. Take Florida to cover the line with additional selections until you’re satisfied with the price.

Before placing your bet, explore our exclusive betting promo codes, welcome offers, and best free bets for today.

Best Bet

Florida +5.5 @ -110 Bet Now

BetMGM Promo Up To $1500 in Bonus Bets Get Bonus T&C apply. Gamble responsibly 18+

Gamble responsibly 18+. All odds are correct at time of publishing and are subject to change. To use the Bookmaker Live Streaming services you will need to be logged in and have a funded account or to have placed a bet in the last 24 hours. Geo-restrictions apply.

Published 22:26, 02 October 2025

Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: DJ Lagway Over 189.5 Passing Yards -114

You can place a bet on DJ Lagway (Florida) at -114 to reach over 189.5 passing yards. We’re confident in taking him to cover the QB Passing Yards line and bettors can back this pick with conviction.

Latest DJ Lagway Player Prop Odds

Touchdown

Passing Yards

Eugene Wilson III Over 34.5 Receiving Yards -114

You can back Eugene Wilson III (Florida) at -114 to go over 34.5 receiving yards. The line for Player Receiving Yards looks attractive and we’re confident of securing a return.

Latest Eugene Wilson III Player Prop Odds

Touchdown

Receiving Yards

Same Game Parlay Picks

Spread Florida +5.5

Totals Under 42.5

Passing Yards DJ Lagway Over 189.5

We’ve compiled a same game parlay that includes Florida +5.5 on the spread, combined with Under 42.5 and DJ Lagway (Florida) to have Over 189.5 passing yards.

Should you want to back different outcomes for the same game, then a football same game parlay will suit your needs. The betting sites create this personalised wagering tool where you can make different picks and combine the odds together.

Bet Boosts

T&C apply. Gamble responsibly 18+

Correct Score Prediction

Texas

17 - 21 Florida logo

Florida

There’s every chance that this is going to be a close matchup and we’ll have a play on the Gators achieving a 21-17 winning scoreline. Hopefully this can go close.

Texas vs Florida Odds

The odds and lines are updated on a frequent basis. You might therefore find that they are different to the ones listed for the betting predictions and bet builder tips.

Books Make Texas Moneyline Favorites

With a 68% chance of securing victory, Texas are favorites for this college game and the sportsbooks have them at betting odds of -208. For those wanting to oppose the market leader, you can get +176 about Florida.

The current spread is 5.5 and total points is 42.5. There is no denying the popularity of wagering on the Totals. There’s the chance to back Under 42.5 at -110.

The good news is that you can access a wide range of team props and game lines for most college football clashes. The top betting sites offer a great selection of pre-game and in-game wagering options.

Moneyline

Point Spread

Total Points

Jadan Baugh Favorite to Score First Touchdown

Jadan Baugh is the market leader to be First TD Scorer at +600. Alternatively, there’s the opportunity to back him to register a touchdown at any stage at +135.

Touchdown

Jadan Baugh (Florida)

Quintrevion Wisner (Texas)

CJ Baxter (Texas)

Ryan Wingo (Texas)

View More View Less

Receiving Yards

Ryan Wingo (Texas)

Vernell Brown III (Florida)

DeAndre Moore Jr. (Texas)

Eugene Wilson III (Florida)

View More View Less

Rushing Yards

Jadan Baugh (Florida)

Arch Manning (Texas)

Passing Yards

Arch Manning (Texas)

DJ Lagway (Florida)

Best Betting Offers

Ben Hill Griffin Stadium

Last Ten Home Games Have Produced Seven Wins for Florida

Florida are 7-3 in their last 10 home games, averaging 30.90 points on offense and surrendering 17.30 on defense.

Texas have a 8-2 record in their last 10 road games, putting up 26.10 points per contest and giving up 18.00.

Last 10 Games		W-L	P	PF	PA	O42.5	U42.5
Florida Home Stats		7-3	48.20	30.90	17.30	6	4
Texas Away Stats		8-2	44.10	26.10	18.00	5	5

W-L = Wins-Losses
P = Avg. Points
PF = Avg. Points For
PA = Avg. Points Against
O42.5 = Games Over 42.5 Points
U42.5 = Games Under 42.5 Points

Last 5 & H2H

All
Home
Away

Last 5 Games

Texas

NCAAF: 21/09 Sam Houston0 Texas 55
NCAAF: 13/09 UTEP10 Texas 27
NCAAF: 06/09 San Jose State7 Texas 38
NCAAF: 30/08 Texas7 Ohio State 14
NCAAF National Championship: 11/01 Ohio State28 Texas 14

Florida

NCAAF: 21/09 Florida7 Miami 26
NCAAF: 14/09 Florida10 LSU 20
NCAAF: 06/09 South Florida18 Florida 16
NCAAF: 31/08 LIU0 Florida 55
NCAAF Bowls: 20/12 Tulane8 Florida 33

Head to Head

Texas vs Florida

NCAAF: 09/11 2024 Florida 17 Texas 49

Team Stats

Latest regular season and playoff games stats.

Texas Longhorns Stats

Florida Gators Stats

Moneyline

7 wins and 3 defeats in the last 10 games
8 wins and 2 defeats in the last 10 games on the road

Moneyline

5 wins and 5 defeats in the last 10 games
7 wins and 3 defeats in the last 10 home games

Point Spread

-5.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 7 of the last 10 games
-5.5 Betting Line on the Road: Have covered the spread in 6 of the last 10 games on the road

Point Spread

+5.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 6 of the last 10 games
+5.5 Betting Line at Home: Have covered the spread in 8 of the last 10 home games

Total Points

Game Totals: An average of 44.20 pts in the previous 10 games
Game Totals on the Road: An average of 44.10 pts in the previous 10 games on the road
Over 42.5: Covered in 5 of the previous 10 games
Over 42.5 on the Road: Covered in 5 of the previous 10 games on the road
Team Totals: Have scored an average of 28.50 pts and allowed 15.70 pts in the last 10 games
Team Totals on the Road: Have scored an average of 26.10 pts and allowed 18.00 pts in the last 10 games on the road

Total Points

Game Totals: An average of 43.90 pts in the previous 10 games
Game Totals at Home: An average of 48.20 pts in the previous 10 home games
Over 42.5: Covered in 4 of the previous 10 games
Over 42.5 at Home: Covered in 6 of the previous 10 home games
Team Totals: Have scored an average of 24.00 pts and allowed 19.90 pts in the last 10 games
Team Totals at Home: Have scored an average of 30.90 pts and allowed 17.30 pts in the last 10 home games

NCAAF Standings Select Season

Southeastern	W	L	PF	PA	N. Pts	Home	Away	Strk
Missouri	5	0	226	73	153	5-0	0-0	5W
Oklahoma	4	0	125	36	89	3-0	1-0	4W
Ole Miss	5	0	203	94	109	4-0	1-0	5W
Texas A&M	4	0	143	96	47	3-0	1-0	4W
Vanderbilt	5	0	245	86	159	3-0	2-0	5W
LSU	4	1	135	61	74	3-0	1-1	1L
Mississippi State	4	1	193	88	105	3-1	1-0	1L
Tennessee	4	1	255	145	110	3-1	1-0	2W
Alabama	3	1	152	66	86	2-0	1-1	3W
Georgia	3	1	138	78	60	2-1	1-0	1L
Texas	3	1	127	31	96	3-0	0-1	3W
Auburn	3	2	138	82	56	2-0	1-2	2L
South Carolina	3	2	124	94	30	3-1	0-1	1W
Kentucky	2	2	108	104	4	2-1	0-1	1L
Arkansas	2	3	187	150	37	2-1	0-2	3L
Florida	1	3	88	64	24	1-1	0-2	3L