Texas vs Mississippi State Prediction, Picks & Odds | 25 Oct 2025
College Football Betting Preview: Texas vs Mississippi State
Texas face off against Mississippi State in this NCAAF Week 9 matchup at Davis Wade Stadium, with kickoff scheduled for 16:15 on Saturday, October 25. Our betting preview features expert predictions, picks, the latest betting odds and H2H stats.
We’ll take a chance on Mississippi State who have been given a generous +7.5 on the spread. We think -122 can be taken with confidence that they cover the line against Texas.
Texas Longhorns have won back-to-back games. A 16-13 (OT) triumph recently occurred on the road at Kroger Field when playing Kentucky Wildcats.
Mississippi State Bulldogs have suffered defeat in their last three games. Most recently, a 23-21 scoreline occurred on the road at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium against Florida Gators.
Head-to-Head Statistics
It was a 35-13 win for Texas at DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium when they last played Mississippi State.
Quarterbacks
Arch Manning
Blake Shapen
Texas vs Mississippi State Prediction & Picks
Be fully equipped for Texas vs Mississippi State with our betting guide, offering a key match prediction, a correct score recommendation, top player prop picks and a bet builder tailored for value.
Game Prediction
We’re expecting a spirited performance from Mississippi State which leads us to backing the underdogs against the spread for this college football battle. They should be able to cover the +7.5 line where -122 can be found.
Incoming team news often impacts the betting lines and odds in significant ways. Our college football handicappers factor this in alongside recent form, while key stats are also carefully weighed to strengthen each pick.
Key Texas vs Mississippi State stats:
MS State +7.5 Probability
According to the top sportsbooks, there’s a 54.9% likelihood of our pick landing a return. However, our analysts in-depth research has found that the actual probability is closer to 60%. It’s the reason why we are recommending this college bet.
There are many betting alternatives to the spread and we particularly like the Winning Margin lines. It’s great whether you’re expecting things to be close or comprehensive.
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Player Prop Picks
The odds for Arch Manning (Texas) to end with fewer than 220.5 passing yards are -114. We're confident he’ll fall short of the QB Passing Yards line, so we're backing the Under.
You can place a bet on Brenen Thompson (Mississippi State) at -114 to have less than 52.5 receiving yards. It’s reasonable to expect he may fall short, making the Player Receiving Yards line appealing.
Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.
Same Game Parlay Picks
We’ve loaded up a same game parlay with the combined picks of Mississippi State +7.5, Over 45.5 and Arch Manning (Texas) to go Under 220.5 passing yards.
A same game parlay allows bettors to place a multiple wager on the same football game. You can go through the available betting lines and cherry-pick the outcomes that you think will happen. The odds for each selection are then combined together.
Correct Score Prediction
27
-
23
MS State
We’re expecting this to be a close matchup and we’ll take Texas to win 27-23. This is available at massive odds for those that want to have a speculative wager.
Texas vs Mississippi State Odds
The odds and lines below are updated regularly and may differ from the prices shown in our picks, which are captured at the time of publication.
For this college game, the sportsbooks’ Moneyline betting odds mean Texas are -323 favorites to win and that means a 76% chance of landing a victory. Mississippi State are the underdogs at +260 and they’re regarded as least likely to win.
There is a spread of 7.5 and total points has a line of 48.5. A Total bet relates to the number of points that will be scored overall. Those who wager Under 48.5 can get -110.
Whether you are wagering pre-game or in-game on college football, the top betting apps let you feast on a wide range of team props and game lines. The selections are practically endless, and it’s awesome to have so many options at your fingertips.
There’s the chance to back Quintrevion Wisner at +480 to be the First Touchdown Scorer. He’s the favorite and available at similar odds to record the last TD instead.
Touchdown
Receiving Yards
Rushing Yards
Passing Yards
Micro betting is an exciting way to wager on college football. There are a huge range of live lines and it’s a simple case of predicting what is going to happen next. Field Goal Outcome, Next Drive Result and Next Play Result are often among the options.
Mississippi State Home Results Include Six Losses From Last Ten Games
Mississippi State have a 4-6 record in their last 10 home games, putting up 31.80 points on average and giving up 30.80.
Texas own a 7-3 mark in their past 10 road games, putting up 24.30 points on average and giving up 18.00.
| Last 10 Games | W-L | P | PF | PA | O45.5 | U45.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Mississippi State Home Stats |
4-6 | 62.60 | 31.80 | 30.80 | 9 | 1 | |
 Texas Away Stats |
7-3 | 42.30 | 24.30 | 18.00 | 4 | 6 | |
- W-L = Wins-Losses
- P = Avg. Points
- PF = Avg. Points For
- PA = Avg. Points Against
- O45.5 = Games Over 45.5 Points
- U45.5 = Games Under 45.5 Points
Latest regular season and playoff games stats.
Texas Longhorns Stats
Mississippi State Bulldogs Stats
- 7 wins and 3 defeats in the last 10 games
- 7 wins and 3 defeats in the last 10 games on the road
- -7.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 6 of the last 10 games
- -7.5 Betting Line on the Road: Have covered the spread in 5 of the last 10 games on the road
- +7.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 6 of the last 10 games
- +7.5 Betting Line at Home: Have covered the spread in 5 of the last 10 home games
- Game Totals: An average of 44.00 pts in the previous 10 games
- Game Totals on the Road: An average of 42.30 pts in the previous 10 games on the road
- Over 45.5: Covered in 4 of the previous 10 games
- Over 45.5 on the Road: Covered in 4 of the previous 10 games on the road
- Team Totals: Have scored an average of 27.80 pts and allowed 16.20 pts in the last 10 games
- Team Totals on the Road: Have scored an average of 24.30 pts and allowed 18.00 pts in the last 10 games on the road
- Game Totals: An average of 51.10 pts in the previous 10 games
- Game Totals at Home: An average of 62.60 pts in the previous 10 home games
- Over 45.5: Covered in 6 of the previous 10 games
- Over 45.5 at Home: Covered in 9 of the previous 10 home games
- Team Totals: Have scored an average of 27.10 pts and allowed 24.00 pts in the last 10 games
- Team Totals at Home: Have scored an average of 31.80 pts and allowed 30.80 pts in the last 10 home games
| Southeastern | W | L | PF | PA | N. Pts | Home | Away | Strk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Georgia
|
12 | 1 | 415 | 207 | 208 | 6-1 | 6-0 | 9W |
Ole Miss
|
11 | 1 | 447 | 241 | 206 | 8-0 | 3-1 | 5W |
Texas A&M
|
11 | 1 | 436 | 263 | 173 | 7-0 | 4-1 | 1L |
Oklahoma
|
10 | 2 | 317 | 167 | 150 | 6-1 | 4-1 | 4W |
Vanderbilt
|
10 | 2 | 473 | 263 | 210 | 7-0 | 3-2 | 3W |
Alabama
|
10 | 3 | 406 | 226 | 180 | 6-2 | 4-1 | 1L |
|
Texas
|
9 | 3 | 355 | 237 | 118 | 7-0 | 2-3 | 2W |
Missouri
|
8 | 4 | 386 | 233 | 153 | 6-2 | 2-2 | 1W |
Tennessee
|
8 | 4 | 489 | 345 | 144 | 5-3 | 3-1 | 1L |
LSU
|
7 | 5 | 262 | 220 | 42 | 6-1 | 1-4 | 1L |
Kentucky
|
5 | 7 | 276 | 317 | -41 | 4-3 | 1-4 | 2L |
Auburn
|
5 | 7 | 321 | 248 | 73 | 3-4 | 2-3 | 1L |
|
Mississippi State
|
5 | 7 | 366 | 350 | 16 | 3-4 | 2-3 | 3L |
Florida
|
4 | 8 | 259 | 288 | -29 | 4-3 | 0-5 | 1W |
South Carolina
|
4 | 8 | 272 | 265 | 7 | 4-4 | 0-4 | 1L |
Arkansas
|
2 | 10 | 395 | 406 | -11 | 2-5 | 0-5 | 10L |
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