Texas vs Mississippi State Prediction, Picks & Odds | 25 Oct 2025

College Football Betting Preview: Texas vs Mississippi State

Texas face off against Mississippi State in this NCAAF Week 9 matchup at Davis Wade Stadium, with kickoff scheduled for 16:15 on Saturday 25 October. Our betting preview features expert predictions, picks, the latest betting odds and H2H stats.

Mississippi State to Cover the Line?

We’ll take a chance on Mississippi State who have been given a generous +7.5 on the spread. We think -122 can be taken with confidence that they cover the line against Texas.

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Texas 35-13 Winners in Previous H2H

Texas Longhorns have won back-to-back games. A 16-13 (OT) triumph recently occurred on the road at Kroger Field when playing Kentucky Wildcats.

Mississippi State Bulldogs have suffered defeat in their last three games. Most recently, a 23-21 scoreline occurred on the road at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium against Florida Gators.

Head-to-Head Statistics

It was a 35-13 win for Texas at DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium when they last played Mississippi State.

Quarterbacks

Arch Manning

220.5 Passing Yards

Over -114

Under -114

Blake Shapen

197.5 Passing Yards

Over -114

Under -114

Texas vs Mississippi State Prediction & Picks

Be fully equipped for Texas vs Mississippi State with our betting guide, offering a key match prediction, a correct score recommendation, top player prop picks and a bet builder tailored for value.

Game Prediction

We’re expecting a spirited performance from Mississippi State which leads us to backing the underdogs against the spread for this college football battle. They should be able to cover the +7.5 line where -122 can be found.

Incoming team news often impacts the betting lines and odds in significant ways. Our college football handicappers factor this in alongside recent form, while key stats are also carefully weighed to strengthen each pick.

Key Texas vs Mississippi State stats:

• The +7.5 line has been covered by Mississippi State in 4 consecutive games at home.
• The +7.5 line has been covered by Mississippi State in 6 of their last 7 games this season.
• The +7.5 line has been covered by Mississippi State in 6 of their last 10 games.
• The -7.5 line hasn’t been covered by Texas in 3 consecutive games on the road.

Mississippi State +7.5 Probability

According to the top sportsbooks, there’s a 54.9% likelihood of our pick landing a return. However, our analysts in-depth research has found that the actual probability is closer to 60%. It’s the reason why we are recommending this college bet.

There are many betting alternatives to the spread and we particularly like the Winning Margin lines. It’s great whether you’re expecting things to be close or comprehensive.

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Best Bet

Mississippi State +7.5 @ -122 Bet Now

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Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: Arch Manning Under 220.5 Passing Yards -114

The odds for Arch Manning (Texas) to end with fewer than 220.5 passing yards are -114. We're confident he’ll fall short of the QB Passing Yards line, so we're backing the Under.

Latest Arch Manning Player Prop Odds

Passing Yards

Over 220.5

-114

Under 220.5

-114

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Brenen Thompson Under 52.5 Receiving Yards -114

You can place a bet on Brenen Thompson (Mississippi State) at -114 to have less than 52.5 receiving yards. It’s reasonable to expect he may fall short, making the Player Receiving Yards line appealing.

Latest Brenen Thompson Player Prop Odds

Receiving Yards

Over 52.5

-114

Under 52.5

-114

Correct Score Prediction

Texas 27 - 23 Mississippi State

We’re expecting this to be a close matchup and we’ll take Texas to win 27-23. This is available at massive odds for those that want to have a speculative wager.

Texas vs Mississippi State Odds

The odds and lines are updated on a frequent basis. You might therefore find that they are different to the ones listed for the betting predictions and bet builder tips.

Texas Moneyline Odds Suggest Victory

For this college game, the sportsbooks’ Moneyline betting odds mean Texas are -278 favorites to win and that means a 74% chance of landing a victory. Mississippi State are the underdogs at +225 and they’re regarded as least likely to win.

There is a spread of 7.5 and total points has a line of 46.5. A Total bet relates to the number of points that will be scored overall. Those who wager Under 46.5 can get -110.

Whether you are wagering pre-game or in-game on college football, the top betting apps let you feast on a wide range of team props and game lines. The selections are practically endless, and it’s awesome to have so many options at your fingertips.

Moneyline

Texas

-278

Mississippi State

+225

Point Spread

Texas -7.5

-100

Mississippi State +7.5

-122

Total Points

Under 46.5

-110

Over 46.5

-110

Player Odds

Receiving Yards

Brenen Thompson (Mississippi State)

Over 52.5

-114

Under 52.5

-114

Anthony Evans III (Mississippi State)

Over 51.5

-114

Under 51.5

-114

Ryan Wingo (Texas)

Over 44.5

-114

Under 44.5

-114

Parker Livingstone (Texas)

Over 37.5

-114

Under 37.5

-114

DeAndre Moore Jr. (Texas)

Over 33.5

-114

Under 33.5

-114

Passing Yards

Arch Manning (Texas)

Over 220.5

-114

Under 220.5

-114

Blake Shapen (Mississippi State)

Over 197.5

-114

Under 197.5

-114

Mississippi State Home Results Include Six Losses From Last Ten Games

Mississippi State have a 4-6 record in their last 10 home games, putting up 31.80 points on average and giving up 30.80.

Texas own a 7-3 mark in their past 10 road games, putting up 24.30 points on average and giving up 18.00.

Last 10 Games		W-L	P	PF	PA	O45.5	U45.5
Mississippi State Home Stats		4-6	62.60	31.80	30.80	9	1
Texas Away Stats		7-3	42.30	24.30	18.00	4	6

• W-L = Wins-Losses
• P = Avg. Points
• PF = Avg. Points For
• PA = Avg. Points Against
• O45.5 = Games Over 45.5 Points
• U45.5 = Games Under 45.5 Points

Last 5 & H2H

Latest regular season and playoff games stats.

Texas Longhorns Stats

Mississippi State Bulldogs Stats

Moneyline

• 7 wins and 3 defeats in the last 10 games
• 7 wins and 3 defeats in the last 10 games on the road

Moneyline

• 4 wins and 6 defeats in the last 10 games
• 4 wins and 6 defeats in the last 10 home games

Point Spread

• -7.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 6 of the last 10 games
• -7.5 Betting Line on the Road: Have covered the spread in 5 of the last 10 games on the road

Point Spread

• +7.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 6 of the last 10 games
• +7.5 Betting Line at Home: Have covered the spread in 5 of the last 10 home games

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 44.00 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals on the Road: An average of 42.30 pts in the previous 10 games on the road
• Over 45.5: Covered in 4 of the previous 10 games
• Over 45.5 on the Road: Covered in 4 of the previous 10 games on the road
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 27.80 pts and allowed 16.20 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals on the Road: Have scored an average of 24.30 pts and allowed 18.00 pts in the last 10 games on the road

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 51.10 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals at Home: An average of 62.60 pts in the previous 10 home games
• Over 45.5: Covered in 6 of the previous 10 games
• Over 45.5 at Home: Covered in 9 of the previous 10 home games
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 27.10 pts and allowed 24.00 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals at Home: Have scored an average of 31.80 pts and allowed 30.80 pts in the last 10 home games

NCAAF Standings Select Season 2025/20262024/20252023/20242022/20232021/20222020/20212019/2020

Southeastern	W	L	PF	PA	N. Pts	Home	Away	Strk
Texas A&M	7	0	253	164	89	5-0	2-0	7W
Alabama	6	1	246	124	122	4-0	2-1	6W
Georgia	6	1	236	137	99	4-1	2-0	3W
Missouri	6	1	273	117	156	5-1	1-0	1W
Oklahoma	6	1	201	66	135	4-0	2-1	1W
Ole Miss	6	1	262	158	104	5-0	1-1	1L
Vanderbilt	6	1	290	140	150	4-0	2-1	1W
LSU	5	2	179	102	77	4-0	1-2	1L
Tennessee	5	2	309	213	96	4-1	1-1	1L
Texas	5	2	187	79	108	4-0	1-2	2W
Mississippi State	4	3	223	142	81	3-1	1-2	3L
Auburn	3	4	165	125	40	2-2	1-2	4L
Florida	3	4	157	140	17	3-1	0-3	1W
South Carolina	3	4	141	140	1	3-2	0-2	2L
Kentucky	2	4	135	155	-20	2-2	0-2	3L
Arkansas	2	5	260	229	31	2-2	0-3	5L