Virginia vs Louisville Prediction, Picks & Odds | 04 Oct 2025
College Football Betting Preview: Virginia vs Louisville
Virginia face off against Louisville in this NCAAF Week 6 matchup at L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium, with kickoff scheduled for 15:30 on Saturday, October 4. Our betting preview features expert predictions, picks, the latest betting odds and H2H stats.
Louisville should be taken against the spread at -6.5 with our prediction being for the favorites to achieve a comfortable margin of victory in their meeting with Virginia. Back them at the odds of -106 that are available.
Virginia Cavaliers made it three consecutive wins after a 46-38 (OT) home success over Florida State Seminoles at Scott Stadium.
Louisville Cardinals got a fourth straight win in their last game. It was a 34-27 road triumph at Acrisure Stadium when meeting Pittsburgh Panthers.
Head-to-Head Statistics
Louisville beat Virginia in their last head-to-head matchup. It was a 24-20 scoreline at Scott Stadium. Louisville have won four of the previous 6 H2H meetings.
Quarterbacks
Chandler Morris
Miller Moss
Virginia vs Louisville Prediction & Picks
Prepare for Virginia vs Louisville with our expert betting guide featuring a trusted match prediction, likely scoreline, key player props and a well-crafted bet builder.
Game Prediction
It’s time to go for Louisville against the spread, especially with an attractive -6.5 line at -106. Our pick is that the favorites can achieve a comfortable win in this college football battle.
We put solid research behind every CFB pick, starting with recent form and a clear read on injuries. From there, key stats and advanced metrics help complete the picture and support smarter betting decisions.
Key Virginia vs Louisville stats:
Louisville -6.5 Probability
According to the top sportsbooks, our pick has a 51.5% chance of delivering a return. Our cappers think there’s a stronger chance of success and calculate the probability to be 55-60%. The bet can be recommended for this precise reason.
The sportsbooks give you the chance to buy or sell points, meaning that you can select from a variety of lines. Buying means shorter prices, with selling sending the odds upwards.
Make the most of your next wager by unlocking the best betting offers along with the latest sign-up bonuses and promotions.
Player Prop Picks
You can place a bet on Chandler Morris (Virginia) at -114 to record fewer than 263.5 passing yards. The line looks too high and we’re confident he’ll fall short of the QB Passing Yards total.
Chris Bell (Virginia) is available at -114 to finish with fewer than 80.5 receiving yards. There’s no reason to doubt our instinct, so we’ll bet on him falling short of the Player Receiving Yards line.
Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.
Same Game Parlay Picks
Try out our same game parlay pick which starts with Louisville -6.5. We’ve also gone for Under 61.5 points and Chandler Morris (Virginia) to have Under 263.5 passing yards.
The same game parlay option is fantastic for football bettors wanting a personalised multi-leg wager on the same game. It’s especially good if you have a strong opinion on the likely outcomes and the odds for each selection are combined.
Correct Score Prediction
21
-
31
Louisville
A 31-21 win for Louisville is clearly a risky bet although this could be an exciting correct score option where there’s the chance to enjoy a massive potential return.
Virginia vs Louisville Odds
The odds and lines below are updated regularly and may differ from the prices shown in our picks, which are captured at the time of publication.
With a 71% chance of securing victory, Louisville are favorites for this college game and the sportsbooks have them at betting odds of -250. If you’re looking for an alternative angle, Virginia are trading at +205.
The current spread is 6.5 and the total points line is 60.5. There is no denying the popularity of wagering on the Totals. There’s the chance to back Under 60.5 at -115.
Whether you are wagering pre-game or in-game on college football, the top betting apps let you feast on a wide range of team props and game lines. The selections are practically endless, and it’s awesome to have so many options at your fingertips.
Isaac Brown is the market leader to score a touchdown at anytime and you can get -179. There is the chance to back the favorite to grab the first TD at odds of +500.
Touchdown
Receiving Yards
Rushing Yards
Passing Yards
It’s possible to use stats to your advantage when it comes to college football micro betting, especially if you’re predicting outcomes such as the Next Drive Result. Check out the live player, score and team props and see if you can find an angle.
Louisville Tough to Crack at Home
Louisville have rattled off four straight wins at L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium. They have gone 7-3 across their last 10 home games, putting up 40.10 points on average and giving up 21.40.
Virginia are riding a skid of three consecutive road defeats. They have four wins and six losses in the last 10 games away from home, averaging 27.20 points scored and 31.50 points allowed.
Louisville defeated Virginia 31-24 the last time they played at L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium. Across the past 3 head-to-head meetings at L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium, Louisville have recorded two wins, with Virginia winning once.
| Last 10 Games | W-L | P | PF | PA | O61.5 | U61.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Louisville Home Stats |
7-3 | 61.50 | 40.10 | 21.40 | 5 | 5 | |
 Virginia Away Stats |
4-6 | 58.70 | 27.20 | 31.50 | 3 | 7 | |
- W-L = Wins-Losses
- P = Avg. Points
- PF = Avg. Points For
- PA = Avg. Points Against
- O61.5 = Games Over 61.5 Points
- U61.5 = Games Under 61.5 Points
Latest regular season and playoff games stats.
Virginia Cavaliers Stats
Louisville Cardinals Stats
- 5 wins and 5 defeats in the last 10 games
- 4 wins and 6 defeats in the last 10 games on the road
- +6.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 6 of the last 10 games
- +6.5 Betting Line on the Road: Have covered the spread in 6 of the last 10 games on the road
- -6.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 7 of the last 10 games
- -6.5 Betting Line at Home: Have covered the spread in 7 of the last 10 home games
- Game Totals: An average of 58.50 pts in the previous 10 games
- Game Totals on the Road: An average of 58.70 pts in the previous 10 games on the road
- Over 61.5: Covered in 4 of the previous 10 games
- Over 61.5 on the Road: Covered in 3 of the previous 10 games on the road
- Team Totals: Have scored an average of 30.40 pts and allowed 28.10 pts in the last 10 games
- Team Totals on the Road: Have scored an average of 27.20 pts and allowed 31.50 pts in the last 10 games on the road
- Game Totals: An average of 58.30 pts in the previous 10 games
- Game Totals at Home: An average of 61.50 pts in the previous 10 home games
- Over 61.5: Covered in 3 of the previous 10 games
- Over 61.5 at Home: Covered in 5 of the previous 10 home games
- Team Totals: Have scored an average of 36.50 pts and allowed 21.80 pts in the last 10 games
- Team Totals at Home: Have scored an average of 40.10 pts and allowed 21.40 pts in the last 10 home games
| Atlantic Coast | W | L | PF | PA | N. Pts | Home | Away | Strk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Miami
|
10 | 2 | 409 | 166 | 243 | 7-1 | 3-1 | 4W |
|
Virginia
|
10 | 3 | 418 | 267 | 151 | 6-2 | 4-1 | 1L |
Georgia Tech
|
9 | 3 | 397 | 300 | 97 | 5-2 | 4-1 | 2L |
Pittsburgh
|
8 | 4 | 421 | 299 | 122 | 4-3 | 4-1 | 1L |
SMU
|
8 | 4 | 395 | 248 | 147 | 5-1 | 3-3 | 1L |
|
Louisville
|
8 | 4 | 362 | 253 | 109 | 5-3 | 3-1 | 1W |
Wake Forest
|
8 | 4 | 322 | 258 | 64 | 5-2 | 3-2 | 1L |
Duke
|
8 | 5 | 442 | 373 | 69 | 3-3 | 5-2 | 3W |
NC State
|
7 | 5 | 362 | 346 | 16 | 6-1 | 1-4 | 2W |
California
|
7 | 5 | 298 | 318 | -20 | 4-2 | 3-3 | 1W |
Clemson
|
7 | 5 | 344 | 245 | 99 | 3-4 | 4-1 | 4W |
Florida State
|
5 | 7 | 396 | 264 | 132 | 5-2 | 0-5 | 2L |
Stanford
|
4 | 8 | 226 | 350 | -124 | 4-2 | 0-6 | 1L |
North Carolina
|
4 | 8 | 231 | 294 | -63 | 2-4 | 2-4 | 3L |
Virginia Tech
|
3 | 9 | 257 | 362 | -105 | 2-5 | 1-4 | 4L |
Syracuse
|
3 | 9 | 242 | 419 | -177 | 2-4 | 1-5 | 8L |
Boston College
|
2 | 10 | 305 | 393 | -88 | 1-6 | 1-4 | 1W |
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