Virginia vs Louisville Prediction, Picks & Odds | 04 Oct 2025

By Joshua Davis, NCAAF Analyst | Published: 2 hours ago | 4 min read

Virginia Cavaliers

American Football NCAAF L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium Sat 4 Oct 15:30

Louisville Cardinals

Prediction
Bet Builder
Odds
Player Props
Stats
Standings

College Football Betting Preview: Virginia vs Louisville

Virginia face off against Louisville in this NCAAF Week 6 matchup at L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium, with kickoff scheduled for 15:30 on Saturday 4 October. Our betting preview features expert predictions, picks, the latest betting odds and H2H stats.

Louisville Look the Value Bet

Louisville should be taken against the spread at -6.5 with our prediction being for the favorites to achieve a comfortable margin of victory in their meeting with Virginia. Back them at the odds of -106 that are available.

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Teams’ Last Battle Saw 24-20 Louisville Victory

Virginia Cavaliers made it three consecutive wins after a 46-38 (OT) home success over Florida State Seminoles at Scott Stadium.

Louisville Cardinals got a fourth straight win in their last game. It was a 34-27 road triumph at Acrisure Stadium when meeting Pittsburgh Panthers.

Head-to-Head Statistics

Louisville beat Virginia in their last head-to-head matchup. It was a 24-20 scoreline at Scott Stadium. Louisville have won four of the previous 6 H2H meetings.

Quarterbacks

Chandler Morris

Miller Moss

Virginia vs Louisville Prediction & Picks

Prepare for Virginia vs Louisville with our expert betting guide featuring a trusted match prediction, likely scoreline, key player props and a well-crafted bet builder.

Game Prediction

It’s time to go for Louisville against the spread, especially with an attractive -6.5 line at -106. Our pick is that the favorites can achieve a comfortable win in this college football battle.

We put solid research behind every CFB pick, starting with recent form and a clear read on injuries. From there, key stats and advanced metrics help complete the picture and support smarter betting decisions.

Key Virginia vs Louisville stats:

The -6.5 line has been covered by Louisville in 4 consecutive games.
The -6.5 line has been covered by Louisville in 17 of their last 20 games at home.
The -6.5 line has been covered by Louisville in 7 of their last 10 games.
The +6.5 line hasn’t been covered by Virginia in 3 of their last 5 games on the road.

Louisville -6.5 Probability

According to the top sportsbooks, our pick has a 51.5% chance of delivering a return. Our cappers think there’s a stronger chance of success and calculate the probability to be 55-60%. The bet can be recommended for this precise reason.

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Best Bet

Louisville -6.5 @ -106 Bet Now

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Published 22:26, 02 October 2025

Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: Chandler Morris Under 263.5 Passing Yards -114

You can place a bet on Chandler Morris (Virginia) at -114 to record fewer than 263.5 passing yards. The line looks too high and we’re confident he’ll fall short of the QB Passing Yards total.

Latest Chandler Morris Player Prop Odds

Touchdown

Passing Yards

Rushing Yards

Chris Bell Under 80.5 Receiving Yards -114

Chris Bell (Virginia) is available at -114 to finish with fewer than 80.5 receiving yards. There’s no reason to doubt our instinct, so we’ll bet on him falling short of the Player Receiving Yards line.

Latest Chris Bell Player Prop Odds

Touchdown

Receiving Yards

Same Game Parlay Picks

Spread Louisville -6.5

Totals Under 61.5

Passing Yards Chandler Morris Under 263.5

Try out our same game parlay pick which starts with Louisville -6.5. We’ve also gone for Under 61.5 points and Chandler Morris (Virginia) to have Under 263.5 passing yards.

The same game parlay option is fantastic for football bettors wanting a personalised multi-leg wager on the same game. It’s especially good if you have a strong opinion on the likely outcomes and the odds for each selection are combined.

Bet Boosts

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Correct Score Prediction

Virginia

21 - 31 Louisville logo

Louisville

A 31-21 win for Louisville is clearly a risky bet although this could be an exciting correct score option where there’s the chance to enjoy a massive potential return.

Virginia vs Louisville Odds

The odds and lines are updated on a frequent basis. You might therefore find that they are different to the ones listed for the betting predictions and bet builder tips.

Louisville Could Have the Edge Say the Books

With a 68% chance of securing victory, Louisville are favorites for this college game and the sportsbooks have them at betting odds of -213. If you’re looking for an alternative angle, Virginia are trading at +180.

The current spread is 6.5 and the total points line is 61.5. There is no denying the popularity of wagering on the Totals. There’s the chance to back Under 61.5 at -110.

Whether you are wagering pre-game or in-game on college football, the top betting apps let you feast on a wide range of team props and game lines. The selections are practically endless, and it’s awesome to have so many options at your fingertips.

Moneyline

Point Spread

Total Points

Isaac Brown Favorite to Score First Touchdown

Isaac Brown is the market leader to score a touchdown at anytime and you can get -208. There is the chance to back the favorite to grab the first TD at odds of +500.

Touchdown

Isaac Brown (Louisville)

J'Mari Taylor (Virginia)

Chris Bell (Louisville)

Caullin Lacy (Louisville)

View More View Less

Receiving Yards

Chris Bell (Louisville)

Caullin Lacy (Louisville)

Trell Harris (Virginia)

Cam Ross (Virginia)

View More View Less

Rushing Yards

J'Mari Taylor (Virginia)

Isaac Brown (Louisville)

Chandler Morris (Virginia)

Passing Yards

Miller Moss (Louisville)

Chandler Morris (Virginia)

Best Betting Offers

L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium

Louisville Tough to Crack at Home

Louisville have rattled off four straight wins at L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium. They have gone 7-3 across their last 10 home games, putting up 40.10 points on average and giving up 21.40.

Virginia are riding a skid of three consecutive road defeats. They have four wins and six losses in the last 10 games away from home, averaging 27.20 points scored and 31.50 points allowed.

Louisville defeated Virginia 31-24 the last time they played at L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium. Across the past 3 head-to-head meetings at L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium, Louisville have recorded two wins, with Virginia winning once.

Last 10 Games		W-L	P	PF	PA	O61.5	U61.5
Louisville Home Stats		7-3	61.50	40.10	21.40	5	5
Virginia Away Stats		4-6	58.70	27.20	31.50	3	7

W-L = Wins-Losses
P = Avg. Points
PF = Avg. Points For
PA = Avg. Points Against
O61.5 = Games Over 61.5 Points
U61.5 = Games Under 61.5 Points

Last 5 & H2H

All
Home
Away

Last 5 Games

Virginia

NCAAF: 27/09 Florida State38 Virginia 46
NCAAF: 21/09 Stanford20 Virginia 48
NCAAF: 13/09 William & Mary16 Virginia 55
NCAAF: 06/09 Virginia31 NC State 35
NCAAF: 31/08 Coastal Carolina7 Virginia 48

Louisville

NCAAF: 27/09 Louisville34 Pittsburgh 27
NCAAF: 20/09 Bowling Green17 Louisville 40
NCAAF: 06/09 James Madison14 Louisville 28
NCAAF: 30/08 Eastern Kentucky17 Louisville 51
NCAAF Bowls: 31/12 Louisville35 Washington 34

Head to Head

Virginia vs Louisville

NCAAF: 12/10 2024 Louisville 24 Virginia 20
NCAAF: 10/11 2023 Virginia 24 Louisville 31
NCAAF: 08/10 2022 Louisville 34 Virginia 17
NCAAF: 09/10 2021 Virginia 34 Louisville 33
NCAAF: 14/11 2020 Louisville 17 Virginia 31
NCAAF: 26/10 2019 Virginia 21 Louisville 28

Team Stats

Latest regular season and playoff games stats.

Virginia Cavaliers Stats

Louisville Cardinals Stats

Moneyline

5 wins and 5 defeats in the last 10 games
4 wins and 6 defeats in the last 10 games on the road

Moneyline

9 wins and 1 defeat in the last 10 games
7 wins and 3 defeats in the last 10 home games

Point Spread

+6.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 6 of the last 10 games
+6.5 Betting Line on the Road: Have covered the spread in 6 of the last 10 games on the road

Point Spread

-6.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 7 of the last 10 games
-6.5 Betting Line at Home: Have covered the spread in 7 of the last 10 home games

Total Points

Game Totals: An average of 58.50 pts in the previous 10 games
Game Totals on the Road: An average of 58.70 pts in the previous 10 games on the road
Over 61.5: Covered in 4 of the previous 10 games
Over 61.5 on the Road: Covered in 3 of the previous 10 games on the road
Team Totals: Have scored an average of 30.40 pts and allowed 28.10 pts in the last 10 games
Team Totals on the Road: Have scored an average of 27.20 pts and allowed 31.50 pts in the last 10 games on the road

Total Points

Game Totals: An average of 58.30 pts in the previous 10 games
Game Totals at Home: An average of 61.50 pts in the previous 10 home games
Over 61.5: Covered in 3 of the previous 10 games
Over 61.5 at Home: Covered in 5 of the previous 10 home games
Team Totals: Have scored an average of 36.50 pts and allowed 21.80 pts in the last 10 games
Team Totals at Home: Have scored an average of 40.10 pts and allowed 21.40 pts in the last 10 home games

NCAAF Standings Select Season

Atlantic Coast	W	L	PF	PA	N. Pts	Home	Away	Strk
Georgia Tech	5	0	185	106	79	3-0	2-0	5W
Louisville	4	0	153	75	78	3-0	1-0	4W
Miami	4	0	147	46	101	4-0	0-0	4W
California	4	1	124	90	34	2-0	2-1	1W
Virginia	4	1	228	116	112	4-0	0-1	3W
Florida State	3	1	212	76	136	3-0	0-1	1L
Syracuse	3	2	156	148	8	2-1	1-1	1L
NC State	3	2	147	140	7	2-1	1-1	2L
Duke	3	2	174	132	42	2-1	1-1	2W
North Carolina	2	2	84	91	-7	1-1	1-1	1L
Pittsburgh	2	2	157	91	66	2-1	0-1	2L
SMU	2	2	139	106	33	1-1	1-1	1L
Wake Forest	2	2	105	83	22	2-2	0-0	2L
Stanford	2	3	103	147	-44	2-0	0-3	1W
Virginia Tech	2	3	118	140	-22	1-2	1-1	2W
Boston College	1	3	150	110	40	1-1	0-2	3L
Clemson	1	3	79	91	-12	1-2	0-1	2L