Bills vs Falcons Prediction, Picks & Odds | 13 Oct 2025

NFL Betting Preview: Bills vs Falcons

The Buffalo Bills battle the Atlanta Falcons in this NFL Week 6 Monday Night Football matchup at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, with kickoff scheduled for 19:15 on Monday, October 13. Our betting preview features expert predictions, picks, updated betting odds, head-to-head stats and the latest team news, including injuries.

We’re expecting Over 49.5 points to be scored by the Falcons and the Bills combined. There’s an attractive -118 for our prediction and we’re anticipating that the scoreboard will tick over.

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Buffalo Bills lost their previous game, being beaten at home to New England Patriots 23-20 at Highmark Stadium. The Bills moved the ball for 363 yards, with 245 through the air and 118 on the ground. The offense managed 25 first downs to go along with two touchdowns.

Atlanta Falcons won their last game which was at home. It was a 34-27 triumph at Mercedes-Benz Stadium against Washington Commanders. The Falcons finished with 435 total yards, made up of 307 through the air and 128 on the ground. They picked up 24 first downs to go with 4 trips to the end zone.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The Bills triumphed 29-15 when they last played the Falcons. This head-to-head was played at Highmark Stadium.

Quarterbacks

Josh Allen

229.5 Passing Yards

Over -112

Under -112

Michael Penix Jr.

225.5 Passing Yards

Over -112

Under -112

Bills vs Falcons Prediction & Picks

Be fully equipped for Bills vs Falcons with our betting guide, offering a key match prediction, a correct score recommendation, top player prop picks and a bet builder tailored for value.

Game Prediction

There’s juice available when it comes to backing Over 49.5 points in this NFL matchup and that’s the betting angle we’re pursuing. Our pick is priced up at -118 which looks worth taking.

The formbook is always a smart starting point when making NFL picks. Up-to-date team news is just as important, while the stats we provide often reveal valuable insights.

Key Bills vs Falcons stats:

• The 49.5 line has been covered in 6 of the last 10 Bills games.
• The 49.5 line has been covered in 3 of the last 5 Bills games this season.

Over 49.5 Probability

According to the top sportsbooks, there’s a 54.1% likelihood of our pick landing a return. However, our cappers have this figure closer to 60% based on their in-depth research. That means we’re regarding it as a value bet.

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Our Game Prediction

Over 49.5 Points @ -118 Bet Now

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Disclosure: This preview contains affiliate links; we may earn a commission at no extra cost to you. T&Cs apply. We only recommend licensed and regulated operators. See our Editorial Policy. Pick odds and lines reflect the price available at the time of publication (01:26, 12 October 2025). Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: Josh Allen Anytime TD -100

The odds for Josh Allen (Bills) to score a TD are -100. He looks like a value bet to punch it in and we recommend backing this Anytime Touchdown Scorer pick.

Latest Josh Allen Player Prop Odds

Touchdown

Anytime

+110

First

+750

Passing Yards

Over 229.5

-112

Under 229.5

-112

Rushing Yards

Over 34.5

-112

Under 34.5

-112

---

Michael Penix Jr. Over 223.5 Passing Yards -114

You can place a bet on Michael Penix Jr. (Falcons) at -114 to go beyond 223.5 passing yards. We’re happy to take him to cover the QB Passing Yards line and bettors can place this wager with confidence.

Latest Michael Penix Jr. Player Prop Odds

Touchdown

Anytime

+700

First

+3500

Passing Yards

Over 225.5

-112

Under 225.5

-112

Rushing Yards

Over 7.5

-118

Under 7.5

-108

Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Correct Score Prediction

Bills 24 - 28 Falcons

A close matchup could be on the cards. We’ll wager the Falcons to secure a 28-24 win at massive odds and this correct score prediction should hopefully be a fun one.

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Bills vs Falcons Odds

The odds and lines below are updated regularly and may differ from the prices shown in our picks, which are captured at the time of publication.

The sportsbooks have Buffalo Bills at -227 when it comes to the Moneyline betting, implying the market leaders are 69% likely to win this game according to the latest odds. For those wanting to back Atlanta Falcons, you will find +185 about the underdogs.

The current spread is 5.5 and total points is 48.5. The Totals offers NFL fans an alternative way of getting involved. If you’re wanting to back Over 48.5, the odds are -110.

Bettors have no shortage of options with the extensive range of game lines and team props available for every matchup. Head to the best NFL sportsbooks and uncover the wagers that offer the best value.

Moneyline

Bills

-227

Falcons

+185

Point Spread

Bills -5.5

-110

Falcons +5.5

-110

Total Points

Under 48.5

-110

Over 48.5

-110

Bijan Robinson is available at -179 when it comes to Anytime Touchdown Scorer. The favorite is now priced at odds of +420 to score the first TD.

Touchdown

Bijan Robinson (Falcons)

First TD

+420

Anytime TD

-179

James Cook (Bills)

First TD

+500

Anytime TD

-141

Josh Allen (Bills)

First TD

+750

Anytime TD

+110

Drake London (Falcons)

First TD

+950

Anytime TD

+155

Tyler Allgeier (Falcons)

First TD

+1100

Anytime TD

+185

Khalil Shakir (Bills)

First TD

+1200

Anytime TD

+200

Keon Coleman (Bills)

First TD

+1300

Anytime TD

+200

Kyle Pitts (Falcons)

First TD

+1500

Anytime TD

+260

Darnell Mooney (Falcons)

First TD

+1500

Anytime TD

+230

Dawson Knox (Bills)

First TD

+1600

Anytime TD

+280

Dalton Kincaid (Bills)

First TD

+1700

Anytime TD

+230

Joshua Palmer (Bills)

First TD

+2000

Anytime TD

+390

Casey Washington (Falcons)

First TD

+2700

Anytime TD

+480

Ray-Ray McCloud III (Falcons)

First TD

+2700

Anytime TD

+500

Curtis Samuel (Bills)

First TD

+3000

Anytime TD

+500

Jackson Hawes (Bills)

First TD

+3000

Anytime TD

+500

Michael Penix Jr. (Falcons)

First TD

+3500

Anytime TD

+700

Elijah Moore (Bills)

First TD

+4500

Anytime TD

+700

Ty Johnson (Bills)

First TD

+5500

Anytime TD

+750

Tyrell Shavers (Bills)

First TD

+5500

Anytime TD

+1000

David Sills V (Falcons)

First TD

+6500

Anytime TD

+1000

Ray Davis (Bills)

First TD

+8000

Anytime TD

+900

Charlie Woerner (Falcons)

First TD

+8000

Anytime TD

+1200

Jamal Agnew (Falcons)

First TD

+10000

Anytime TD

+1500

KhaDarel Hodge (Falcons)

First TD

+10000

Anytime TD

+1400

Reggie Gilliam (Bills)

First TD

+10000

Anytime TD

+2000

Feleipe Franks (Falcons)

First TD

+10000

Anytime TD

+3500

Teagan Quitoriano (Falcons)

First TD

+10000

Anytime TD

+3300

Nathan Carter (Falcons)

First TD

+10000

Anytime TD

+2200

Receiving Yards

Drake London (Falcons)

Over 74.5

-112

Under 74.5

-112

Khalil Shakir (Bills)

Over 51.5

-112

Under 51.5

-112

Kyle Pitts (Falcons)

Over 43.5

-112

Under 43.5

-112

Keon Coleman (Bills)

Over 42.5

-112

Under 42.5

-112

Dalton Kincaid (Bills)

Over 36.5

-114

Under 36.5

-114

Bijan Robinson (Falcons)

Over 33.5

-112

Under 33.5

-112

Casey Washington (Falcons)

Over 32.5

-112

Under 32.5

-112

Dawson Knox (Bills)

Over 25.5

-112

Under 25.5

-112

Joshua Palmer (Bills)

Over 21.5

-112

Under 21.5

-112

Ray-Ray McCloud III (Falcons)

Over 18.5

-112

Under 18.5

-112

James Cook (Bills)

Over 15.5

-112

Under 15.5

-112

Rushing Yards

Bijan Robinson (Falcons)

Over 72.5

-112

Under 72.5

-112

James Cook (Bills)

Over 70.5

-112

Under 70.5

-112

Josh Allen (Bills)

Over 34.5

-112

Under 34.5

-112

Tyler Allgeier (Falcons)

Over 33.5

-112

Under 33.5

-112

Michael Penix Jr. (Falcons)

Over 7.5

-118

Under 7.5

-108

Passing Yards

Josh Allen (Bills)

Over 229.5

-112

Under 229.5

-112

Michael Penix Jr. (Falcons)

Over 225.5

-112

Under 225.5

-112

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Falcons Record Shows Five Wins in Last Ten at Home

The Falcons own a 5-5 mark in their past 10 home games, scoring 25.90 points per contest and conceding 24.90.

The Bills are 5-5 in their last 10 games away from home, scoring 27.90 points per contest and conceding 25.90.

Last 10 Games		W-L	P	PF	PA	O49.5	U49.5
Falcons Home Stats		5-5	50.80	25.90	24.90	4	6
Bills Away Stats		5-5	53.80	27.90	25.90	4	6

• W-L = Wins-Losses
• P = Avg. Points
• PF = Avg. Points For
• PA = Avg. Points Against
• O49.5 = Games Over 49.5 Points
• U49.5 = Games Under 49.5 Points

Latest regular season and playoff games stats.

Buffalo Bills Stats

Atlanta Falcons Stats

Moneyline

• 7 wins and 3 defeats in the last 10 games
• 5 wins and 5 defeats in the last 10 games on the road

Moneyline

• 4 wins and 6 defeats in the last 10 games
• 5 wins and 5 defeats in the last 10 home games

Point Spread

• -4.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 5 of the last 10 games
• -4.5 Betting Line on the Road: Have covered the spread in 4 of the last 10 games on the road

Point Spread

• +4.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 6 of the last 10 games
• +4.5 Betting Line at Home: Have covered the spread in 7 of the last 10 home games

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 51.00 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals on the Road: An average of 53.80 pts in the previous 10 games on the road
• Over 49.5: Covered in 6 of the previous 10 games
• Over 49.5 on the Road: Covered in 4 of the previous 10 games on the road
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 29.60 pts and allowed 21.40 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals on the Road: Have scored an average of 27.90 pts and allowed 25.90 pts in the last 10 games on the road

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 45.60 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals at Home: An average of 50.80 pts in the previous 10 home games
• Over 49.5: Covered in 4 of the previous 10 games
• Over 49.5 at Home: Covered in 4 of the previous 10 home games
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 22.10 pts and allowed 23.50 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals at Home: Have scored an average of 25.90 pts and allowed 24.90 pts in the last 10 home games

Game Stats

Last 10 Games

• Total Yards: Gained 370.40 Yds. Allowed 309.70 Yds
• Rushing Yards: Gained 150.30 Yds. Allowed 130.70 Yds
• Passing Yards: Gained 220.10 Yds. Allowed 179.00 Yds
• Total Touchdowns: Scored 3.50 TD. Allowed 2.50 TD
• Rushing Touchdowns: Scored 1.80 TD. Allowed 1.20 TD
• Passing Touchdowns: Scored 1.70 TD. Allowed 1.30 TD
• Total 1st Downs: Picked up 22.90. Allowed 19.50
• Total Turnovers: Committed 0.40. Committed by opponents 1.30
• Total Penalties: Committed 6.30. Committed by opponents 6.60
• Penalty Yards: Lost 48.50 Yds. Gained 54.70 Yds

Game Stats

Last 10 Games

• Total Yards: Gained 376.30 Yds. Allowed 291.60 Yds
• Rushing Yards: Gained 146.80 Yds. Allowed 108.80 Yds
• Passing Yards: Gained 229.50 Yds. Allowed 182.80 Yds
• Total Touchdowns: Scored 2.30 TD. Allowed 2.70 TD
• Rushing Touchdowns: Scored 1.40 TD. Allowed 0.70 TD
• Passing Touchdowns: Scored 0.70 TD. Allowed 1.80 TD
• Total 1st Downs: Picked up 22.20. Allowed 17.50
• Total Turnovers: Committed 1.60. Committed by opponents 1.40
• Total Penalties: Committed 5.50. Committed by opponents 7.00
• Penalty Yards: Lost 42.90 Yds. Gained 56.10 Yds

Last 10 Games on the Road

• Total Yards: Gained 377.10 Yds. Allowed 364.80 Yds
• Rushing Yards: Gained 148.00 Yds. Allowed 113.60 Yds
• Passing Yards: Gained 229.10 Yds. Allowed 251.20 Yds
• Total Touchdowns: Scored 3.40 TD. Allowed 3.10 TD
• Rushing Touchdowns: Scored 2.00 TD. Allowed 1.20 TD
• Passing Touchdowns: Scored 1.30 TD. Allowed 1.70 TD
• Total 1st Downs: Picked up 21.80. Allowed 21.20
• Total Turnovers: Committed 0.40. Committed by opponents 1.40
• Total Penalties: Committed 7.10. Committed by opponents 7.30
• Penalty Yards: Lost 55.60 Yds. Gained 61.60 Yds

Last 10 Home Games

• Total Yards: Gained 388.20 Yds. Allowed 316.10 Yds
• Rushing Yards: Gained 116.50 Yds. Allowed 116.30 Yds
• Passing Yards: Gained 271.70 Yds. Allowed 199.80 Yds
• Total Touchdowns: Scored 3.00 TD. Allowed 2.70 TD
• Rushing Touchdowns: Scored 1.20 TD. Allowed 0.70 TD
• Passing Touchdowns: Scored 1.40 TD. Allowed 1.80 TD
• Total 1st Downs: Picked up 22.40. Allowed 19.30
• Total Turnovers: Committed 1.40. Committed by opponents 0.90
• Total Penalties: Committed 6.10. Committed by opponents 6.10
• Penalty Yards: Lost 48.70 Yds. Gained 52.30 Yds

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