Bills vs Broncos Prediction, Picks & Odds | 17 Jan 2026

NFL Playoff Divisional Round Betting Preview: Bills vs Broncos

No. 6 Buffalo Bills face No. 1 Denver Broncos in this AFC Divisional Round clash at Empower Field at Mile High, with kickoff scheduled for 16:30 on Saturday, January 17.

The Bills look like strong value on the Moneyline and we’re backing Buffalo to beat the Broncos. At -102, the price offers a solid return if the Bills take care of business.

The Buffalo Bills (12-5, 2nd in AFC East) come into this Divisional Round matchup having won their last four road games, including a 27–24 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars in the Wild Card round at EverBank Stadium.

The Bills put up 340 total yards, made up of 261 through the air and 79 on the ground. They moved the chains 20 times and produced 3 touchdowns, combining one through the air with 2 on the ground.

The Denver Broncos (14-3, 1st in AFC West) closed the regular season with a 19–3 home win over the Los Angeles Chargers at Empower Field at Mile High, securing back-to-back victories before heading into this matchup off a bye.

The Broncos put up 240 yards, split between 124 passing and 116 rushing yards. The offense scored one touchdown and managed 13 first downs.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The Bills had the edge in the most recent matchup between these teams. At Highmark Stadium, they recorded a 31-7 win over the Broncos. It’s been three Buffalo wins in the past 4 games between these teams.

Quarterbacks

Josh Allen

211.5 Passing Yards

Over -112

Under -112

Bo Nix

210.5 Passing Yards

Over -112

Under -112

Bills vs Broncos Prediction & Picks

Discover the top Bills vs Broncos betting angles — from our trusted match prediction and likely score to the best prop plays and a customized bet builder.

Game Prediction

If you’re looking for a value wager, then -102 that the Bills win this NFL postseason battle certainly stands out. We’re expecting them to triumph on the Moneyline at attractive odds

Our NFL predictions are built after tracking the latest team news and reviewing recent form. We also dive into up-to-date stats, which often serve as a solid barometer for how the action might unfold.

Key Bills vs Broncos stats:

• Bills have won 4 consecutive games on the road this season.
• Bills have won 13 of their last 18 games this season.
• Bills have won 7 of their last 10 games.
• Broncos have lost 3 of their last 4 games against Bills.

Bills Moneyline Probability

The top NFL sportsbooks make it a 50.5% chance that our pick is settled as a winner. However, our cappers think that the probability sits between 55-60% taking all factors into consideration. That means we’re regarding it as a value bet.

If you want to back the Bills to win at bigger odds, why not consider a bet on the Double Result lines? You simply need them to be leading after the second quarter and at full-time.

Fuel your next bet with the hottest betting offers, welcome promos, and free bets featured in our straightforward bonus guide.

Our Game Prediction

Bills Moneyline @ -102 Bet Now

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Disclosure: This preview contains affiliate links; we may earn a commission at no extra cost to you. T&Cs apply. We only recommend licensed and regulated operators. See our Editorial Policy. Pick odds and lines reflect the price available at the time of publication (Jan 15, 23:25). Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: Bo Nix Under 210.5 Passing Yards -114

Bo Nix (Broncos) can be backed at -114 to end with fewer than 210.5 passing yards. The line looks too high and we’re confident he’ll fall short of the QB Passing Yards total.

Latest Bo Nix Player Prop Odds

Touchdown

Anytime

+300

First

+1600

Passing Yards

Over 210.5

-112

Under 210.5

-112

Rushing Yards

Over 25.5

-112

Under 25.5

-112

---

Josh Allen Anytime TD -105

The odds for Josh Allen (Bills) to make it to the end zone are -105. The Anytime Touchdown Scorer odds are appealing from all angles and we’re willing to take a chance on him.

Latest Josh Allen Player Prop Odds

Touchdown

Anytime

-115

First

+600

Passing Yards

Over 211.5

-112

Under 211.5

-112

Rushing Yards

Over 36.5

-112

Under 36.5

-112

Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Correct Score Prediction

Bills 21 - 20 Broncos

There’s every chance that this is going to be a close battle and we’ll have a play on the Bills enjoying a 21-20 winning scoreline. Hopefully this can go close.

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Bills vs Broncos Odds

The odds and lines below are updated regularly and may differ from the prices shown in our picks, which are captured at the time of publication.

When you consider the latest Moneyline odds, you can find the Denver Broncos at -118 whereas the Buffalo Bills are -100. The probability of the home team winning this Divisional Round game is 54% according to the sportsbooks.

1.5 is where the spread lies, with total points being 45.5 right now. The advantage of the Totals is that you only have to choose from one of two options. There’s the chance to back Under 45.5 at -112.

If you’re planning to place a bet on a National Football League matchup, visit the top sportsbooks and check out the hundreds of available game lines and team props. Find the betting lines and odds which are the most attractive.

Moneyline

Bills

-100

Broncos

-118

Point Spread

Bills +1.5

-114

Broncos -1.5

-106

Total Points

Under 45.5

-112

Over 45.5

-108

RJ Harvey is priced at +500 when it comes to First TD Scorer. He’s the favorite and also available at odds of -120 to score a touchdown at anytime.

Touchdown

RJ Harvey (Broncos)

First TD

+500

Anytime TD

-120

James Cook (Bills)

First TD

+600

Anytime TD

+105

Josh Allen (Bills)

First TD

+600

Anytime TD

-115

Courtland Sutton (Broncos)

First TD

+1000

Anytime TD

+210

Khalil Shakir (Bills)

First TD

+1300

Anytime TD

+260

Pat Bryant (Broncos)

First TD

+1500

Anytime TD

+290

Bo Nix (Broncos)

First TD

+1600

Anytime TD

+300

Dalton Kincaid (Bills)

First TD

+1700

Anytime TD

+320

Troy Franklin (Broncos)

First TD

+1700

Anytime TD

+330

Evan Engram (Broncos)

First TD

+2000

Anytime TD

+390

Dawson Knox (Bills)

First TD

+2200

Anytime TD

+480

Brandin Cooks (Bills)

First TD

+2200

Anytime TD

+500

Jaleel McLaughlin (Broncos)

First TD

+2500

Anytime TD

+550

Marvin Mims Jr. (Broncos)

First TD

+3000

Anytime TD

+600

Keon Coleman (Bills)

First TD

+3000

Anytime TD

+550

Adam Trautman (Broncos)

First TD

+3300

Anytime TD

+800

Elijah Moore (Bills)

First TD

+4000

Anytime TD

+850

Lil'Jordan Humphrey (Broncos)

First TD

+4000

Anytime TD

+850

Ray Davis (Bills)

First TD

+5500

Anytime TD

+700

Ty Johnson (Bills)

First TD

+5500

Anytime TD

+700

Tyrell Shavers (Bills)

First TD

+5500

Anytime TD

+1000

Curtis Samuel (Bills)

First TD

+6000

Anytime TD

+1000

Jackson Hawes (Bills)

First TD

+6500

Anytime TD

+1200

Tyler Badie (Broncos)

First TD

+8000

Anytime TD

+1600

Adam Prentice (Broncos)

First TD

+10000

Anytime TD

+1900

Nate Adkins (Broncos)

First TD

+10000

Anytime TD

+2200

Keleki Latu (Bills)

First TD

+10000

Anytime TD

+6000

Reggie Gilliam (Bills)

First TD

+10000

Anytime TD

+6000

Mecole Hardman (Bills)

First TD

+10000

Anytime TD

+2200

Franklin Gore Jr. (Bills)

First TD

+10000

Anytime TD

+6000

Receiving Yards

Courtland Sutton (Broncos)

Over 54.5

-112

Under 54.5

-112

Khalil Shakir (Bills)

Over 51.5

-112

Under 51.5

-112

Dalton Kincaid (Bills)

Over 37.5

-112

Under 37.5

-112

Pat Bryant (Broncos)

Over 34.5

-112

Under 34.5

-112

Brandin Cooks (Bills)

Over 29.5

-112

Under 29.5

-112

Evan Engram (Broncos)

Over 21.5

-112

Under 21.5

-112

Dawson Knox (Bills)

Over 21.5

-112

Under 21.5

-112

Troy Franklin (Broncos)

Over 20.5

-112

Under 20.5

-112

Keon Coleman (Bills)

Over 20.5

-112

Under 20.5

-112

RJ Harvey (Broncos)

Over 18.5

-112

Under 18.5

-112

James Cook (Bills)

Over 13.5

-112

Under 13.5

-112

Marvin Mims Jr. (Broncos)

Over 12.5

-112

Under 12.5

-112

Lil'Jordan Humphrey (Broncos)

Over 5.5

-106

Under 5.5

-125

Adam Trautman (Broncos)

Over 5.5

-112

Under 5.5

-112

Rushing Yards

James Cook (Bills)

Over 75.5

-112

Under 75.5

-112

RJ Harvey (Broncos)

Over 53.5

-112

Under 53.5

-112

Josh Allen (Bills)

Over 36.5

-112

Under 36.5

-112

Bo Nix (Broncos)

Over 25.5

-112

Under 25.5

-112

Jaleel McLaughlin (Broncos)

Over 22.5

-112

Under 22.5

-112

Marvin Mims Jr. (Broncos)

Over 2.5

+108

Under 2.5

-139

Passing Yards

Josh Allen (Bills)

Over 211.5

-112

Under 211.5

-112

Bo Nix (Broncos)

Over 210.5

-112

Under 210.5

-112

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Broncos Count Nine Wins in Previous Ten at Home

The Broncos have gone 9-1 across their last 10 home games, averaging 26.80 points scored and 16.00 points allowed.

The Bills have put together four straight wins away from home. They have gone 6-4 across their last 10 games away from home, averaging 25.60 points scored and 21.00 points allowed.

The Bills beat the Broncos 48-19 when the teams last met at Empower Field at Mile High.

Last 10 Games		W-L	P	PF	PA	O46.5	U46.5
Broncos Home Stats		9-1	42.80	26.80	16.00	4	6
Bills Away Stats		6-4	46.60	25.60	21.00	4	6

• W-L = Wins-Losses
• P = Avg. Points
• PF = Avg. Points For
• PA = Avg. Points Against
• O46.5 = Games Over 46.5 Points
• U46.5 = Games Under 46.5 Points

Latest regular season and playoff games stats.

Buffalo Bills Stats

Denver Broncos Stats

Moneyline

• 7 wins and 3 defeats in the last 10 games
• 6 wins and 4 defeats in the last 10 games on the road

Moneyline

• 9 wins and 1 defeat in the last 10 games
• 9 wins and 1 defeat in the last 10 home games

Point Spread

• +1.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 8 of the last 10 games
• +1.5 Betting Line on the Road: Have covered the spread in 6 of the last 10 games on the road

Point Spread

• -1.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 8 of the last 10 games
• -1.5 Betting Line at Home: Have covered the spread in 8 of the last 10 home games

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 49.50 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals on the Road: An average of 46.60 pts in the previous 10 games on the road
• Over 46.5: Covered in 4 of the previous 10 games
• Over 46.5 on the Road: Covered in 4 of the previous 10 games on the road
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 27.30 pts and allowed 22.20 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals on the Road: Have scored an average of 25.60 pts and allowed 21.00 pts in the last 10 games on the road

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 42.20 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals at Home: An average of 42.80 pts in the previous 10 home games
• Over 46.5: Covered in 4 of the previous 10 games
• Over 46.5 at Home: Covered in 4 of the previous 10 home games
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 23.80 pts and allowed 18.40 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals at Home: Have scored an average of 26.80 pts and allowed 16.00 pts in the last 10 home games

Game Stats

Last 10 Games

• Total Yards: Gained 365.30 Yds. Allowed 285.20 Yds
• Rushing Yards: Gained 150.10 Yds. Allowed 133.80 Yds
• Passing Yards: Gained 215.20 Yds. Allowed 151.40 Yds
• Total Touchdowns: Scored 3.60 TD. Allowed 2.70 TD
• Rushing Touchdowns: Scored 1.70 TD. Allowed 1.20 TD
• Passing Touchdowns: Scored 1.70 TD. Allowed 1.30 TD
• Total 1st Downs: Picked up 20.90. Allowed 17.10
• Total Turnovers: Committed 1.40. Committed by opponents 1.30
• Total Penalties: Committed 5.40. Committed by opponents 4.20
• Penalty Yards: Lost 43.60 Yds. Gained 38.40 Yds

Game Stats

Last 10 Games

• Total Yards: Gained 339.60 Yds. Allowed 281.80 Yds
• Rushing Yards: Gained 109.50 Yds. Allowed 89.50 Yds
• Passing Yards: Gained 230.10 Yds. Allowed 192.30 Yds
• Total Touchdowns: Scored 2.60 TD. Allowed 1.80 TD
• Rushing Touchdowns: Scored 1.00 TD. Allowed 0.70 TD
• Passing Touchdowns: Scored 1.40 TD. Allowed 1.10 TD
• Total 1st Downs: Picked up 19.30. Allowed 17.80
• Total Turnovers: Committed 1.00. Committed by opponents 0.90
• Total Penalties: Committed 6.30. Committed by opponents 6.10
• Penalty Yards: Lost 50.20 Yds. Gained 44.80 Yds

Last 10 Games on the Road

• Total Yards: Gained 350.00 Yds. Allowed 304.40 Yds
• Rushing Yards: Gained 164.00 Yds. Allowed 148.20 Yds
• Passing Yards: Gained 186.00 Yds. Allowed 156.20 Yds
• Total Touchdowns: Scored 3.20 TD. Allowed 2.50 TD
• Rushing Touchdowns: Scored 1.90 TD. Allowed 1.40 TD
• Passing Touchdowns: Scored 1.20 TD. Allowed 0.90 TD
• Total 1st Downs: Picked up 20.50. Allowed 18.50
• Total Turnovers: Committed 1.10. Committed by opponents 1.40
• Total Penalties: Committed 6.00. Committed by opponents 4.90
• Penalty Yards: Lost 49.60 Yds. Gained 37.20 Yds

Last 10 Home Games

• Total Yards: Gained 377.90 Yds. Allowed 254.00 Yds
• Rushing Yards: Gained 126.50 Yds. Allowed 82.30 Yds
• Passing Yards: Gained 251.40 Yds. Allowed 171.70 Yds
• Total Touchdowns: Scored 3.10 TD. Allowed 1.70 TD
• Rushing Touchdowns: Scored 1.10 TD. Allowed 0.80 TD
• Passing Touchdowns: Scored 1.90 TD. Allowed 0.90 TD
• Total 1st Downs: Picked up 20.90. Allowed 15.40
• Total Turnovers: Committed 1.10. Committed by opponents 1.10
• Total Penalties: Committed 7.10. Committed by opponents 8.20
• Penalty Yards: Lost 60.60 Yds. Gained 59.60 Yds

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