Bills vs Broncos Prediction, Picks & Odds | 17 Jan 2026

NFL Playoff Divisional Round Betting Preview: Bills vs Broncos

No. 6 Buffalo Bills face No. 1 Denver Broncos in this AFC Divisional Round clash at Empower Field at Mile High, with kickoff scheduled for 16:30 on Saturday, January 17.

The Bills look great value on the Moneyline and our prediction is that they will claim a victory over the Broncos. We’re happy to take the -102 that they win.

Putting your money on Bills? Grab the latest BetMGM promo code and check out our comprehensive review before you place your bet.

The Buffalo Bills (12-5, 2nd in AFC East) come into this Divisional Round matchup having won their last four road games, including a 27–24 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars in the Wild Card round at EverBank Stadium.

The Bills put up 340 total yards, made up of 261 through the air and 79 on the ground. They moved the chains 20 times and produced 3 touchdowns, combining one through the air with 2 on the ground.

The Denver Broncos (14-3, 1st in AFC West) closed the regular season with a 19–3 home win over the Los Angeles Chargers at Empower Field at Mile High, securing back-to-back victories before heading into this matchup off a bye.

The Broncos put up 240 yards, split between 124 passing and 116 rushing yards. The offense scored one touchdown and managed 13 first downs.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The Bills had the edge in the most recent matchup between these teams. At Highmark Stadium, they recorded a 31-7 win over the Broncos. It’s been three Bills wins in the past 4 games between these teams.

Quarterbacks

Josh Allen

208.5 Passing Yards

Over -114

Under -114

Bo Nix

210.5 Passing Yards

Over -114

Under -114

Bills vs Broncos Prediction & Picks

Discover the top Bills vs Broncos betting angles — from our trusted match prediction and likely score to the best prop plays and a customized bet builder.

Game Prediction

If you’re looking for a value wager, then -102 that the Bills win this NFL battle certainly stands out. We’re expecting them to triumph on the Moneyline at attractive odds

Our NFL predictions are built after tracking the latest team news and reviewing recent form. We also dive into up-to-date stats, which often serve as a solid barometer for how the action might unfold.

Key Bills vs Broncos stats:

• Bills have won 4 consecutive games on the road this season.
• Bills have won 13 of their last 18 games this season.
• Bills have won 7 of their last 10 games.
• Broncos have lost 3 of their last 4 games against Bills.

Bills Moneyline Probability

The top NFL sportsbooks make it a 50.5% chance that our pick is settled as a winner. However, our cappers think that the probability sits between 55-60% taking all factors into consideration. That means we’re regarding it as a value bet.

If you want to back the Bills to win at bigger odds, why not consider a bet on the Double Result lines? You simply need them to be leading after the second quarter and at full-time.

Fuel your next bet with the hottest betting offers, welcome promos, and free bets featured in our straightforward bonus guide.

Our Game Prediction

Bills Moneyline @ -102 Watch Live Bet Now

BetMGM Promo Up To $1500 in Bonus Bets Get Bonus T&C apply. Gamble responsibly 18+

Gamble responsibly 18+. All odds are correct at time of publishing and are subject to change. To use the Bookmaker Live Streaming services you will need to be logged in and have a funded account or to have placed a bet in the last 24 hours. Geo-restrictions apply.

Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: Bo Nix Under 210.5 Passing Yards -114

Bo Nix (Broncos) can be backed at -114 to end with fewer than 210.5 passing yards. The line looks too high and we’re confident he’ll fall short of the QB Passing Yards total.

Latest Bo Nix Player Prop Odds

Touchdown

Anytime

+310

First

+1600

Passing Yards

Over 210.5

-114

Under 210.5

-114

Rushing Yards

Over 22.5

-114

Under 22.5

-114

---

Josh Allen Anytime TD -105

The odds for Josh Allen (Bills) to make it to the end zone are -105. The Anytime Touchdown Scorer odds are appealing from all angles and we’re willing to take a chance on him.

Latest Josh Allen Player Prop Odds

Touchdown

Anytime

-105

First

+650

Passing Yards

Over 208.5

-114

Under 208.5

-114

Rushing Yards

Over 36.5

-114

Under 36.5

-114

Correct Score Prediction

Bills 21 - 20 Broncos

There’s every chance that this is going to be a close battle and we’ll have a play on the Bills enjoying a 21-20 winning scoreline. Hopefully this can go close.

Bills vs Broncos Odds

The odds and lines are updated on a frequent basis. You might therefore find that they are different to the ones listed for the betting predictions and bet builder tips.

When you consider the latest Moneyline odds, you can find Denver Broncos at -116 whereas Buffalo Bills are -102. The probability of the home team winning this game is 54% according to the sportsbooks.

1.5 is where the spread lies, with total points being 46.5 right now. The advantage of the Totals is that you only have to choose from one of two options. There’s the chance to back Under 46.5 at -120.

If you’re planning to place a bet on a National Football League matchup, visit the top sportsbooks and check out the hundreds of available game lines and team props. Find the betting lines and odds which are the most attractive.

Moneyline

Bills

-102

Broncos

-116

Point Spread

Bills +1.5

-115

Broncos -1.5

-105

Total Points

Under 46.5

-120

Over 46.5

-102

RJ Harvey is priced at +490 when it comes to First TD Scorer. He’s the favorite and also available at odds of -135 to score a touchdown at anytime.

Touchdown

RJ Harvey (Broncos)

First TD

+490

Anytime TD

-135

James Cook (Bills)

First TD

+600

Anytime TD

-105

Josh Allen (Bills)

First TD

+650

Anytime TD

-105

Courtland Sutton (Broncos)

First TD

+1000

Anytime TD

+200

Khalil Shakir (Bills)

First TD

+1200

Anytime TD

+230

Dalton Kincaid (Bills)

First TD

+1600

Anytime TD

+290

Bo Nix (Broncos)

First TD

+1600

Anytime TD

+310

Pat Bryant (Broncos)

First TD

+1600

Anytime TD

+340

Troy Franklin (Broncos)

First TD

+1700

Anytime TD

+320

Evan Engram (Broncos)

First TD

+2000

Anytime TD

+390

Dawson Knox (Bills)

First TD

+2200

Anytime TD

+450

Brandin Cooks (Bills)

First TD

+2200

Anytime TD

+490

Jaleel McLaughlin (Broncos)

First TD

+2500

Anytime TD

+500

Keon Coleman (Bills)

First TD

+2700

Anytime TD

+500

Adam Trautman (Broncos)

First TD

+3000

Anytime TD

+650

Marvin Mims Jr. (Broncos)

First TD

+3000

Anytime TD

+650

Lil'Jordan Humphrey (Broncos)

First TD

+3500

Anytime TD

+800

Ty Johnson (Bills)

First TD

+5500

Anytime TD

+700

Ray Davis (Bills)

First TD

+5500

Anytime TD

+700

Tyrell Shavers (Bills)

First TD

+5500

Anytime TD

+1000

Curtis Samuel (Bills)

First TD

+6000

Anytime TD

+1000

Jackson Hawes (Bills)

First TD

+6500

Anytime TD

+950

Tyler Badie (Broncos)

First TD

+8000

Anytime TD

+1300

Adam Prentice (Broncos)

First TD

+10000

Anytime TD

+1900

Nate Adkins (Broncos)

First TD

+10000

Anytime TD

+2000

Keleki Latu (Bills)

First TD

+10000

Anytime TD

+3000

Reggie Gilliam (Bills)

First TD

+10000

Anytime TD

+3000

Receiving Yards

Courtland Sutton (Broncos)

Over 54.5

-114

Under 54.5

-114

Khalil Shakir (Bills)

Over 52.5

-114

Under 52.5

-114

Dalton Kincaid (Bills)

Over 35.5

-114

Under 35.5

-114

Pat Bryant (Broncos)

Over 33.5

-114

Under 33.5

-114

Brandin Cooks (Bills)

Over 27.5

-114

Under 27.5

-114

Dawson Knox (Bills)

Over 21.5

-114

Under 21.5

-114

Evan Engram (Broncos)

Over 21.5

-114

Under 21.5

-114

Troy Franklin (Broncos)

Over 20.5

-114

Under 20.5

-114

Keon Coleman (Bills)

Over 20.5

-114

Under 20.5

-114

RJ Harvey (Broncos)

Over 18.5

-114

Under 18.5

-114

James Cook (Bills)

Over 15.5

-114

Under 15.5

-114

Marvin Mims Jr. (Broncos)

Over 13.5

-114

Under 13.5

-114

Adam Trautman (Broncos)

Over 7.5

-114

Under 7.5

-114

Lil'Jordan Humphrey (Broncos)

Over 5.5

-106

Under 5.5

-125

Rushing Yards

James Cook (Bills)

Over 76.5

-114

Under 76.5

-114

RJ Harvey (Broncos)

Over 55.5

-114

Under 55.5

-114

Josh Allen (Bills)

Over 36.5

-114

Under 36.5

-114

Bo Nix (Broncos)

Over 22.5

-114

Under 22.5

-114

Jaleel McLaughlin (Broncos)

Over 21.5

-114

Under 21.5

-114

Marvin Mims Jr. (Broncos)

Over 2.5

+102

Under 2.5

-135

Passing Yards

Bo Nix (Broncos)

Over 210.5

-114

Under 210.5

-114

Josh Allen (Bills)

Over 208.5

-114

Under 208.5

-114

Broncos Count Nine Wins in Previous Ten at Home

The Broncos have gone 9-1 across their last 10 home games, averaging 26.80 points scored and 16.00 points allowed.

The Bills have put together four straight wins away from home. They have gone 6-4 across their last 10 games away from home, averaging 25.60 points scored and 21.00 points allowed.

The Bills beat the Broncos 48-19 when the teams last met at Empower Field at Mile High.

Last 10 Games		W-L	P	PF	PA	O46.5	U46.5
Broncos Home Stats		9-1	42.80	26.80	16.00	4	6
Bills Away Stats		6-4	46.60	25.60	21.00	4	6

• W-L = Wins-Losses
• P = Avg. Points
• PF = Avg. Points For
• PA = Avg. Points Against
• O46.5 = Games Over 46.5 Points
• U46.5 = Games Under 46.5 Points

Latest regular season and playoff games stats.

Buffalo Bills Stats

Denver Broncos Stats

Moneyline

• 7 wins and 3 defeats in the last 10 games
• 6 wins and 4 defeats in the last 10 games on the road

Moneyline

• 9 wins and 1 defeat in the last 10 games
• 9 wins and 1 defeat in the last 10 home games

Point Spread

• +1.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 8 of the last 10 games
• +1.5 Betting Line on the Road: Have covered the spread in 6 of the last 10 games on the road

Point Spread

• -1.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 8 of the last 10 games
• -1.5 Betting Line at Home: Have covered the spread in 8 of the last 10 home games

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 49.50 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals on the Road: An average of 46.60 pts in the previous 10 games on the road
• Over 46.5: Covered in 4 of the previous 10 games
• Over 46.5 on the Road: Covered in 4 of the previous 10 games on the road
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 27.30 pts and allowed 22.20 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals on the Road: Have scored an average of 25.60 pts and allowed 21.00 pts in the last 10 games on the road

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 42.20 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals at Home: An average of 42.80 pts in the previous 10 home games
• Over 46.5: Covered in 4 of the previous 10 games
• Over 46.5 at Home: Covered in 4 of the previous 10 home games
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 23.80 pts and allowed 18.40 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals at Home: Have scored an average of 26.80 pts and allowed 16.00 pts in the last 10 home games

Game Stats

Last 10 Games

• Total Yards: Gained 365.30 Yds. Allowed 285.20 Yds
• Rushing Yards: Gained 150.10 Yds. Allowed 133.80 Yds
• Passing Yards: Gained 215.20 Yds. Allowed 151.40 Yds
• Total Touchdowns: Scored 3.60 TD. Allowed 2.70 TD
• Rushing Touchdowns: Scored 1.70 TD. Allowed 1.20 TD
• Passing Touchdowns: Scored 1.70 TD. Allowed 1.30 TD
• Total 1st Downs: Picked up 20.90. Allowed 17.10
• Total Turnovers: Committed 1.40. Committed by opponents 1.30
• Total Penalties: Committed 5.40. Committed by opponents 4.20
• Penalty Yards: Lost 43.60 Yds. Gained 38.40 Yds

Game Stats

Last 10 Games

• Total Yards: Gained 339.60 Yds. Allowed 281.80 Yds
• Rushing Yards: Gained 109.50 Yds. Allowed 89.50 Yds
• Passing Yards: Gained 230.10 Yds. Allowed 192.30 Yds
• Total Touchdowns: Scored 2.60 TD. Allowed 1.80 TD
• Rushing Touchdowns: Scored 1.00 TD. Allowed 0.70 TD
• Passing Touchdowns: Scored 1.40 TD. Allowed 1.10 TD
• Total 1st Downs: Picked up 19.30. Allowed 17.80
• Total Turnovers: Committed 1.00. Committed by opponents 0.90
• Total Penalties: Committed 6.30. Committed by opponents 6.10
• Penalty Yards: Lost 50.20 Yds. Gained 44.80 Yds

Last 10 Games on the Road

• Total Yards: Gained 350.00 Yds. Allowed 304.40 Yds
• Rushing Yards: Gained 164.00 Yds. Allowed 148.20 Yds
• Passing Yards: Gained 186.00 Yds. Allowed 156.20 Yds
• Total Touchdowns: Scored 3.20 TD. Allowed 2.50 TD
• Rushing Touchdowns: Scored 1.90 TD. Allowed 1.40 TD
• Passing Touchdowns: Scored 1.20 TD. Allowed 0.90 TD
• Total 1st Downs: Picked up 20.50. Allowed 18.50
• Total Turnovers: Committed 1.10. Committed by opponents 1.40
• Total Penalties: Committed 6.00. Committed by opponents 4.90
• Penalty Yards: Lost 49.60 Yds. Gained 37.20 Yds

Last 10 Home Games

• Total Yards: Gained 377.90 Yds. Allowed 254.00 Yds
• Rushing Yards: Gained 126.50 Yds. Allowed 82.30 Yds
• Passing Yards: Gained 251.40 Yds. Allowed 171.70 Yds
• Total Touchdowns: Scored 3.10 TD. Allowed 1.70 TD
• Rushing Touchdowns: Scored 1.10 TD. Allowed 0.80 TD
• Passing Touchdowns: Scored 1.90 TD. Allowed 0.90 TD
• Total 1st Downs: Picked up 20.90. Allowed 15.40
• Total Turnovers: Committed 1.10. Committed by opponents 1.10
• Total Penalties: Committed 7.10. Committed by opponents 8.20
• Penalty Yards: Lost 60.60 Yds. Gained 59.60 Yds

Watch NFL live streaming through your Android or Apple device simply by having a funded sportsbook account or placing a bet within the past 24 hours.

It’s great to watch live sports and you’ll find a wide range of choice with the leading betting apps.

Bills vs Broncos Live Stream Watch Live Geo-restrictions apply. To use the services you need to be logged in, a funded account or to have placed a bet in the last 24 hours.

Top American Football Pages