Cowboys vs Commanders Prediction, Picks & Odds | 25 Dec 2025

NFL Betting Preview: Cowboys vs Commanders

The Dallas Cowboys battle the Washington Commanders in this NFL Christmas Day matchup at Northwest Stadium, with kickoff scheduled for 14:00 on Thursday, December 25.

We’re expecting Over 50.5 points to be scored by the Commanders and the Cowboys combined. There’s an attractive -106 for our prediction and we’re anticipating that the scoreboard will tick over.

Dallas Cowboys have been defeated in three straight games. They were recently beaten at home to Los Angeles Chargers by a 34-17 scoreline at AT&T Stadium. The Cowboys recorded 340 total yards, made up of 249 through the air and 91 on the ground. They moved the chains 18 times and found the end zone twice, each time on a passing play.

Washington Commanders were beaten 29-18 at Northwest Stadium in their last game. This loss to Philadelphia Eagles was their fifth straight home defeat. The Commanders moved the ball for 220 yards, with 130 through the air and 90 on the ground. The offense moved the chains 15 times and scored 2 touchdowns, with each coming on the ground.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The Cowboys triumphed 44-22 when they last played the Commanders. This head-to-head was played at AT&T Stadium. The past 10 games between the teams have seen the Cowboys win seven times.

Cowboys vs Commanders Prediction & Picks

We’ve broken down Cowboys vs Commanders from every angle, offering our expert match prediction, expected final score, best player prop recommendations and a well-constructed bet builder.

Game Prediction

There are odds of -106 about Over 50.5 points and this looks generous for this NFL matchup. The bar might have been set too low in terms of total.

We’re always on top of team news and when combined with recent form, it helps us uncover the best value. Our NFL handicappers also take a data-led approach, using key stats to back every pick.

Key Cowboys vs Commanders stats:

• The 50.5 line has been covered in the last 4 Cowboys games.
• The 50.5 line has been covered in 7 of the last 10 Cowboys games.
• The 50.5 line has been covered in 10 of the 15 Cowboys games this season.
• The 50.5 line has been covered in 7 of the last 10 Commanders games at home.
• The 50.5 line has been covered in 3 of the last 5 Commanders games at home.

Over 50.5 Probability

According to the top sportsbooks, there’s a 51.5% likelihood of our pick landing a return. Our analysts think there’s a stronger chance of success and calculate the probability to be closer to 60%. It’s the reason why we are recommending this bet.

There are many ways to increase the odds if you’re wanting to bet on Overs and one of them is wagering on the Result & Total lines where you also predict a franchise to win.

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Our Game Prediction

Over 50.5 Points @ -106 Bet Now

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Disclosure: This preview contains affiliate links; we may earn a commission at no extra cost to you. T&Cs apply. We only recommend licensed and regulated operators. See our Editorial Policy. Pick odds and lines reflect the price available at the time of publication (Dec 23, 20:25). Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: Dak Prescott Over 270.5 Passing Yards -114

The odds for Dak Prescott (Cowboys) to exceed 270.5 passing yards stand at -114. We’re confident in taking him to cover the QB Passing Yards line and bettors can back this pick with conviction.

Latest Dak Prescott Player Prop Odds

Touchdown

Anytime

+410

First

+2200

Passing Yards

Over 270.5

-112

Under 270.5

-112

Rushing Yards

Over 7.5

-112

Under 7.5

-112

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George Pickens Over 78.5 Receiving Yards -114

George Pickens (Cowboys) is priced at -114 to accumulate over 78.5 receiving yards. With confidence, we can back him to cover the generous Player Receiving Yards line, as all the signs point to him reaching the expected total.

Latest George Pickens Player Prop Odds

Touchdown

Anytime

+130

First

+700

Receiving Yards

Over 78.5

-112

Under 78.5

-112

Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Correct Score Prediction

Cowboys 35 - 20 Commanders

We’re going for the Cowboys to achieve a 35-20 win and the good news is that there are massive odds for this outcome. A small stake can return a potentially large amount.

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Cowboys vs Commanders Odds

The odds and lines below are updated regularly and may differ from the prices shown in our picks, which are captured at the time of publication.

Dallas Cowboys have the shortest price to win this game, with the sportsbooks giving them a 38% probability due to their +166 Moneyline betting odds. For those wanting to back Washington Commanders, you will find -196 about the underdogs.

The current spread is 3.5 and total points is 51.5. A Total bet is always available and can often provide value selections. The Over 51.5 selection is available to back at -105.

If you're betting on the matchups, it's worth checking out the best NFL sportsbooks, where you'll find a massive range of game lines and team props. You can place your bets before kickoff or while the action is underway.

Moneyline

Cowboys

+166

Commanders

-196

Point Spread

Cowboys +3.5

-105

Commanders -3.5

-115

Total Points

Under 51.5

-115

Over 51.5

-105

Javonte Williams is favorite to be First Touchdown Scorer at +400. If you want to back him to score the last TD, you can get similar odds.

Touchdown

Javonte Williams (Cowboys)

First TD

+400

Anytime TD

-189

CeeDee Lamb (Cowboys)

First TD

+600

Anytime TD

+110

George Pickens (Cowboys)

First TD

+700

Anytime TD

+130

Jake Ferguson (Cowboys)

First TD

+750

Anytime TD

+145

Chris Rodriguez Jr. (Commanders)

First TD

+900

Anytime TD

+135

Jacory Croskey-Merritt (Commanders)

First TD

+900

Anytime TD

+135

Terry McLaurin (Commanders)

First TD

+1400

Anytime TD

+200

Deebo Samuel Sr. (Commanders)

First TD

+1600

Anytime TD

+230

Malik Davis (Cowboys)

First TD

+1600

Anytime TD

+240

Treylon Burks (Commanders)

First TD

+2200

Anytime TD

+330

Dak Prescott (Cowboys)

First TD

+2200

Anytime TD

+410

KaVontae Turpin (Cowboys)

First TD

+3000

Anytime TD

+430

Jeremy McNichols (Commanders)

First TD

+3000

Anytime TD

+370

Jalen Tolbert (Cowboys)

First TD

+3500

Anytime TD

+550

Jonathan Mingo (Cowboys)

First TD

+3500

Anytime TD

+550

Ben Sinnott (Commanders)

First TD

+4000

Anytime TD

+650

John Bates (Commanders)

First TD

+5000

Anytime TD

+800

Luke Schoonmaker (Cowboys)

First TD

+5000

Anytime TD

+800

Brevyn Spann-Ford (Cowboys)

First TD

+6000

Anytime TD

+950

Jaydon Blue (Cowboys)

First TD

+7000

Anytime TD

+1000

Hunter Luepke (Cowboys)

First TD

+7000

Anytime TD

+1000

Chase Edmonds (Commanders)

First TD

+8000

Anytime TD

+1300

Chris Moore (Commanders)

First TD

+10000

Anytime TD

+1400

Receiving Yards

CeeDee Lamb (Cowboys)

Over 81.5

-112

Under 81.5

-112

George Pickens (Cowboys)

Over 78.5

-112

Under 78.5

-112

Terry McLaurin (Commanders)

Over 51.5

-112

Under 51.5

-112

Deebo Samuel Sr. (Commanders)

Over 44.5

-112

Under 44.5

-112

Jake Ferguson (Cowboys)

Over 36.5

-112

Under 36.5

-112

Treylon Burks (Commanders)

Over 23.5

-112

Under 23.5

-112

Ben Sinnott (Commanders)

Over 14.5

-112

Under 14.5

-112

Javonte Williams (Cowboys)

Over 8.5

-118

Under 8.5

-108

John Bates (Commanders)

Over 7.5

-112

Under 7.5

-112

Rushing Yards

Javonte Williams (Cowboys)

Over 72.5

-112

Under 72.5

-112

Chris Rodriguez Jr. (Commanders)

Over 54.5

-112

Under 54.5

-112

Jacory Croskey-Merritt (Commanders)

Over 27.5

-112

Under 27.5

-112

Malik Davis (Cowboys)

Over 23.5

-112

Under 23.5

-112

Dak Prescott (Cowboys)

Over 7.5

-112

Under 7.5

-112

It’s possible to use stats to your advantage when it comes to NFL micro betting, especially if you’re predicting outcomes such as the Next Drive Result. Check out the live team, score and player props and see if you can find an angle.

Commanders Home Record Stands at Five Straight Losses

The Commanders have suffered five defeats in a row at Northwest Stadium. They own a 5-5 mark in their past 10 home games, scoring 27.40 points per contest and conceding 26.90.

The Cowboys own a 4-6 mark in their past 10 games on the road, putting up 25.60 points per contest and giving up 29.20.

In their most recent matchup at Northwest Stadium, the Cowboys got the better of the Commanders 34-26. In their past 6 head-to-head matchups at Northwest Stadium, the Cowboys have recorded four victories, while the Commanders have managed two.

Last 10 Games		W-L	P	PF	PA	O50.5	U50.5
Commanders Home Stats		5-5	54.30	27.40	26.90	7	3
Cowboys Away Stats		4-6	54.80	25.60	29.20	5	5

• W-L = Wins-Losses
• P = Avg. Points
• PF = Avg. Points For
• PA = Avg. Points Against
• O50.5 = Games Over 50.5 Points
• U50.5 = Games Under 50.5 Points

Latest regular season and playoff games stats.

Dallas Cowboys Stats

Washington Commanders Stats

Moneyline

• 4 wins and 6 defeats in the last 10 games
• 4 wins and 6 defeats in the last 10 games on the road

Moneyline

• 1 win and 9 defeats in the last 10 games
• 5 wins and 5 defeats in the last 10 home games

Point Spread

• -7 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 2 of the last 10 games
• -7 Betting Line on the Road: Have covered the spread in 4 of the last 10 games on the road

Point Spread

• +7 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 4 of the last 10 games
• +7 Betting Line at Home: Have covered the spread in 7 of the last 10 home games

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 57.30 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals on the Road: An average of 54.80 pts in the previous 10 games on the road
• Over 50.5: Covered in 7 of the previous 10 games
• Over 50.5 on the Road: Covered in 5 of the previous 10 games on the road
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 27.30 pts and allowed 30.00 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals on the Road: Have scored an average of 25.60 pts and allowed 29.20 pts in the last 10 games on the road

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 47.80 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals at Home: An average of 54.30 pts in the previous 10 home games
• Over 50.5: Covered in 4 of the previous 10 games
• Over 50.5 at Home: Covered in 7 of the previous 10 home games
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 17.50 pts and allowed 30.30 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals at Home: Have scored an average of 27.40 pts and allowed 26.90 pts in the last 10 home games

Game Stats

Last 10 Games

• Total Yards: Gained 386.40 Yds. Allowed 364.10 Yds
• Rushing Yards: Gained 111.00 Yds. Allowed 119.70 Yds
• Passing Yards: Gained 275.40 Yds. Allowed 244.40 Yds
• Total Touchdowns: Scored 2.90 TD. Allowed 3.60 TD
• Rushing Touchdowns: Scored 0.80 TD. Allowed 1.50 TD
• Passing Touchdowns: Scored 1.90 TD. Allowed 2.00 TD
• Total 1st Downs: Picked up 22.20. Allowed 21.30
• Total Turnovers: Committed 1.30. Committed by opponents 0.80
• Total Penalties: Committed 7.10. Committed by opponents 7.10
• Penalty Yards: Lost 59.40 Yds. Gained 58.30 Yds

Game Stats

Last 10 Games

• Total Yards: Gained 307.20 Yds. Allowed 398.10 Yds
• Rushing Yards: Gained 122.70 Yds. Allowed 153.00 Yds
• Passing Yards: Gained 184.50 Yds. Allowed 245.10 Yds
• Total Touchdowns: Scored 2.10 TD. Allowed 3.60 TD
• Rushing Touchdowns: Scored 0.90 TD. Allowed 1.30 TD
• Passing Touchdowns: Scored 1.10 TD. Allowed 2.20 TD
• Total 1st Downs: Picked up 18.50. Allowed 23.20
• Total Turnovers: Committed 1.80. Committed by opponents 0.60
• Total Penalties: Committed 6.60. Committed by opponents 5.90
• Penalty Yards: Lost 55.20 Yds. Gained 52.20 Yds

Last 10 Games on the Road

• Total Yards: Gained 355.80 Yds. Allowed 356.80 Yds
• Rushing Yards: Gained 119.30 Yds. Allowed 130.40 Yds
• Passing Yards: Gained 236.50 Yds. Allowed 226.40 Yds
• Total Touchdowns: Scored 2.80 TD. Allowed 3.40 TD
• Rushing Touchdowns: Scored 0.60 TD. Allowed 1.20 TD
• Passing Touchdowns: Scored 2.00 TD. Allowed 2.10 TD
• Total 1st Downs: Picked up 21.30. Allowed 20.80
• Total Turnovers: Committed 1.70. Committed by opponents 1.10
• Total Penalties: Committed 7.30. Committed by opponents 7.20
• Penalty Yards: Lost 58.90 Yds. Gained 56.90 Yds

Last 10 Home Games

• Total Yards: Gained 362.10 Yds. Allowed 363.70 Yds
• Rushing Yards: Gained 162.50 Yds. Allowed 129.20 Yds
• Passing Yards: Gained 199.60 Yds. Allowed 234.50 Yds
• Total Touchdowns: Scored 3.60 TD. Allowed 3.00 TD
• Rushing Touchdowns: Scored 1.50 TD. Allowed 1.20 TD
• Passing Touchdowns: Scored 2.00 TD. Allowed 1.80 TD
• Total 1st Downs: Picked up 22.30. Allowed 20.80
• Total Turnovers: Committed 1.50. Committed by opponents 0.80
• Total Penalties: Committed 7.60. Committed by opponents 6.50
• Penalty Yards: Lost 67.60 Yds. Gained 52.10 Yds

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