Texans vs Patriots Prediction, Picks & Odds | 18 Jan 2026

NFL Playoff Divisional Round Betting Preview: Texans vs Patriots

No. 5 Houston Texans battle No. 2 New England Patriots in this AFC Divisional Round matchup at Gillette Stadium, with kickoff scheduled for 15:00 on Sunday, January 18.

Our best prediction is that the Patriots will gain the upper hand in their meeting with the Texans. This leads us to back the favorites against the spread at -118, with the -3 line offering plenty of appeal.

The Houston Texans (12-5, 2nd in AFC South) come into this Divisional Round matchup riding a 10-game winning streak, highlighted by a dominant 30–6 Wild Card Round road win over the Pittsburgh Steelers at Acrisure Stadium.

The Texans recorded 408 yards, with 244 through the air and 164 on the ground. They picked up 21 first downs and found the end zone 4 times.

The New England Patriots (14-3, 1st in AFC East) extended their winning streak to four games in the Wild Card Round, beating the Los Angeles Chargers 16–3 at Gillette Stadium.

The Pats moved the ball for 381 yards, breaking down to 235 passing and 146 rushing yards. The offense moved the chains 19 times and found the end zone once through the air.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The Texans won the last matchup between the pair. Enjoying a 41-21 triumph when facing the Pats at Gillette Stadium. It’s been three Houston wins in the past 4 games between these teams.

Quarterbacks

C.J. Stroud

209.5 Passing Yards

Over -112

Under -112

Drake Maye

219.5 Passing Yards

Over -112

Under -112

Texans vs Patriots Prediction & Picks

We dive into the top Texans vs Patriots betting angles, including our main match prediction, correct score play, standout player prop picks and a bet builder tailored for value.

Game Prediction

We’re confident of backing the favorites to cover the -3 spread in this NFL matchup. This is an appealing betting line and the Patriots look a great wager at odds of -118.

Recent form is always part of the equation and we combine it with team news as soon as it’s available. To deliver expert picks, our NFL handicappers also analyze the latest stats to ensure we’re working with the best information possible.

Key Texans vs Patriots stats:

• The -3 line has been covered by Patriots in 4 consecutive games.
• The -3 line has been covered by Patriots in 8 of their last 10 games.
• The -3 line has been covered by Patriots in 14 of their last 18 games this season.

Pats -3 Probability

According to the best NFL betting sites, there’s a 54.1% likelihood of our pick delivering a return. However, our analysts have this number closer to 60% based on their in-depth research. This is why we regard this as a value wager.

There are lots of betting alternatives to the spread and we particularly like the Winning Margin lines. It’s great whether you’re expecting things to be close or comprehensive.

Looking for the best betting offers? Our expert guide includes a wide range of welcome bonuses and free bets just for you.

Our Game Prediction

Patriots -3 @ -118 Bet Now

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Disclosure: This preview contains affiliate links; we may earn a commission at no extra cost to you. T&Cs apply. We only recommend licensed and regulated operators. See our Editorial Policy. Pick odds and lines reflect the price available at the time of publication (Jan 16, 21:25). Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: Rhamondre Stevenson Anytime TD +170

Rhamondre Stevenson (Pats) can be backed at odds of +170 to hit paydirt. We think this is the pick of the player props, with generous odds available when it comes to backing him to score a touchdown at any time.

Latest Rhamondre Stevenson Player Prop Odds

Touchdown

Anytime

+165

First

+700

Receiving Yards

Over 19.5

-112

Under 19.5

-112

Rushing Yards

Over 38.5

-112

Under 38.5

-112

---

Stefon Diggs Over 48.5 Receiving Yards -114

Stefon Diggs (Texans) can be backed at -114 to rack up over 48.5 receiving yards. With confidence, we can back him to cover the generous Player Receiving Yards line, as all the signs point to him reaching the expected total.

Latest Stefon Diggs Player Prop Odds

Touchdown

Anytime

+220

First

+950

Receiving Yards

Over 46.5

-112

Under 46.5

-112

Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Correct Score Prediction

Texans 21 - 27 Patriots

Rather than betting on the Pats to win, there’s the option to try your luck when it comes to the correct score lines. Take a chance on a 27-21 victory in their favor.

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Texans vs Patriots Odds

The odds and lines below are updated regularly and may differ from the prices shown in our picks, which are captured at the time of publication.

New England Patriots have the shortest price to win this game, with the sportsbooks giving them a 64% probability due to their -179 Moneyline betting odds. For those wanting to back Houston Texans, you will find +152 about the underdogs.

The current spread is 3.5 and total points is 40.5. A bet on the Totals allows fans to use the latest NFL data to good effect. If you’re going for Under 40.5, this outcome can be backed at -104.

If you’re betting on the National Football League, we recommend visiting the top betting apps and scanning through the many team props and game lines. There’s the opportunity to wager pre-game and in-game.

Moneyline

Texans

+152

Patriots

-179

Point Spread

Texans +3.5

-118

Patriots -3.5

-104

Total Points

Under 40.5

-104

Over 40.5

-118

Rhamondre Stevenson can be backed to score a touchdown at anytime at +165. He is the favorite to score the first TD at odds of +700.

Touchdown

Rhamondre Stevenson (Patriots)

First TD

+700

Anytime TD

+165

Woody Marks (Texans)

First TD

+750

Anytime TD

+160

Hunter Henry (Patriots)

First TD

+850

Anytime TD

+200

Stefon Diggs (Patriots)

First TD

+950

Anytime TD

+220

Dalton Schultz (Texans)

First TD

+1100

Anytime TD

+230

TreVeyon Henderson (Patriots)

First TD

+1100

Anytime TD

+230

Christian Kirk (Texans)

First TD

+1300

Anytime TD

+280

Drake Maye (Patriots)

First TD

+1400

Anytime TD

+320

Kayshon Boutte (Patriots)

First TD

+1500

Anytime TD

+340

Jayden Higgins (Texans)

First TD

+1600

Anytime TD

+350

Xavier Hutchinson (Texans)

First TD

+1800

Anytime TD

+400

DeMario Douglas (Patriots)

First TD

+2500

Anytime TD

+600

Austin Hooper (Patriots)

First TD

+2700

Anytime TD

+700

Nick Chubb (Texans)

First TD

+2700

Anytime TD

+650

Kyle Williams (Patriots)

First TD

+3000

Anytime TD

+800

Cade Stover (Texans)

First TD

+3300

Anytime TD

+700

C.J. Stroud (Texans)

First TD

+3500

Anytime TD

+850

Jaylin Noel (Texans)

First TD

+4000

Anytime TD

+1000

Jawhar Jordan (Texans)

First TD

+5000

Anytime TD

+1000

Efton Chism III (Patriots)

First TD

+7500

Anytime TD

+1200

Justin Watson (Texans)

First TD

+10000

Anytime TD

+1600

Braxton Berrios (Texans)

First TD

+10000

Anytime TD

+2000

British Brooks (Texans)

First TD

+10000

Anytime TD

+4500

Dare Ogunbowale (Texans)

First TD

+10000

Anytime TD

+2000

Harrison Bryant (Texans)

First TD

+10000

Anytime TD

+3300

Jack Westover (Patriots)

First TD

+10000

Anytime TD

+3300

CJ Dippre (Patriots)

First TD

+10000

Anytime TD

+4000

D'Ernest Johnson (Patriots)

First TD

+10000

Anytime TD

+2500

Receiving Yards

Stefon Diggs (Patriots)

Over 46.5

-112

Under 46.5

-112

Hunter Henry (Patriots)

Over 39.5

-112

Under 39.5

-112

Dalton Schultz (Texans)

Over 39.5

-112

Under 39.5

-112

Christian Kirk (Texans)

Over 38.5

-112

Under 38.5

-112

Jayden Higgins (Texans)

Over 37.5

-112

Under 37.5

-112

Kayshon Boutte (Patriots)

Over 33.5

-112

Under 33.5

-112

Xavier Hutchinson (Texans)

Over 29.5

-112

Under 29.5

-112

Rhamondre Stevenson (Patriots)

Over 19.5

-112

Under 19.5

-112

DeMario Douglas (Patriots)

Over 18.5

-112

Under 18.5

-112

Jaylin Noel (Texans)

Over 9.5

-108

Under 9.5

-118

Austin Hooper (Patriots)

Over 9.5

-112

Under 9.5

-112

Woody Marks (Texans)

Over 8.5

-118

Under 8.5

-108

Cade Stover (Texans)

Over 8.5

-106

Under 8.5

-120

TreVeyon Henderson (Patriots)

Over 5.5

-112

Under 5.5

-112

Kyle Williams (Patriots)

Over 5.5

-112

Under 5.5

-112

Rushing Yards

Woody Marks (Texans)

Over 54.5

-112

Under 54.5

-112

Rhamondre Stevenson (Patriots)

Over 38.5

-112

Under 38.5

-112

Drake Maye (Patriots)

Over 35.5

-112

Under 35.5

-112

TreVeyon Henderson (Patriots)

Over 34.5

-112

Under 34.5

-112

Nick Chubb (Texans)

Over 19.5

-112

Under 19.5

-112

C.J. Stroud (Texans)

Over 9.5

-112

Under 9.5

-112

Passing Yards

Drake Maye (Patriots)

Over 219.5

-112

Under 219.5

-112

C.J. Stroud (Texans)

Over 209.5

-112

Under 209.5

-112

Micro betting is something that’s really popular with bettors, with NFL fans essentially being able to wager in-game when it comes to score, player and team props. Sometimes these are two-way lines where you can bet on the Next Play or Next Drive.

Pats Hold Seven Wins in Previous Ten at Home

The Patriots own a 7-3 mark in their past 10 home games, putting up 27.00 points on average and giving up 16.70.

The Texans have notched five straight wins away from home. Houston have six wins and four losses in the last 10 games on the road, putting up 20.20 points per contest and giving up 15.20.

The Texans beat the Pats 41-21 when they last met at Gillette Stadium.

Last 10 Games		W-L	P	PF	PA	O40.5	U40.5
Patriots Home Stats		7-3	43.70	27.00	16.70	7	3
Texans Away Stats		6-4	35.40	20.20	15.20	2	8

• W-L = Wins-Losses
• P = Avg. Points
• PF = Avg. Points For
• PA = Avg. Points Against
• O40.5 = Games Over 40.5 Points
• U40.5 = Games Under 40.5 Points

Latest regular season and playoff games stats.

Houston Texans Stats

New England Patriots Stats

Moneyline

• 10 wins and 0 defeats in the last 10 games
• 6 wins and 4 defeats in the last 10 games on the road

Moneyline

• 9 wins and 1 defeat in the last 10 games
• 7 wins and 3 defeats in the last 10 home games

Point Spread

• +3 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in the last 10 games
• +3 Betting Line on the Road: Have covered the spread in 6 of the last 10 games on the road

Point Spread

• -3 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 8 of the last 10 games
• -3 Betting Line at Home: Have covered the spread in 6 of the last 10 home games

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 44.60 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals on the Road: An average of 35.40 pts in the previous 10 games on the road
• Over 40.5: Covered in 5 of the previous 10 games
• Over 40.5 on the Road: Covered in 2 of the previous 10 games on the road
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 26.60 pts and allowed 18.00 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals on the Road: Have scored an average of 20.20 pts and allowed 15.20 pts in the last 10 games on the road

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 47.00 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals at Home: An average of 43.70 pts in the previous 10 home games
• Over 40.5: Covered in 9 of the previous 10 games
• Over 40.5 at Home: Covered in 7 of the previous 10 home games
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 29.30 pts and allowed 17.70 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals at Home: Have scored an average of 27.00 pts and allowed 16.70 pts in the last 10 home games

Game Stats

Last 10 Games

• Total Yards: Gained 339.80 Yds. Allowed 274.80 Yds
• Rushing Yards: Gained 114.50 Yds. Allowed 93.70 Yds
• Passing Yards: Gained 225.30 Yds. Allowed 181.20 Yds
• Total Touchdowns: Scored 2.70 TD. Allowed 2.00 TD
• Rushing Touchdowns: Scored 0.70 TD. Allowed 0.60 TD
• Passing Touchdowns: Scored 1.30 TD. Allowed 1.20 TD
• Total 1st Downs: Picked up 19.80. Allowed 16.10
• Total Turnovers: Committed 0.80. Committed by opponents 1.70
• Total Penalties: Committed 6.80. Committed by opponents 5.80
• Penalty Yards: Lost 57.70 Yds. Gained 50.80 Yds

Game Stats

Last 10 Games

• Total Yards: Gained 400.50 Yds. Allowed 282.30 Yds
• Rushing Yards: Gained 143.60 Yds. Allowed 120.80 Yds
• Passing Yards: Gained 256.90 Yds. Allowed 161.50 Yds
• Total Touchdowns: Scored 3.40 TD. Allowed 2.20 TD
• Rushing Touchdowns: Scored 1.50 TD. Allowed 0.80 TD
• Passing Touchdowns: Scored 1.70 TD. Allowed 1.30 TD
• Total 1st Downs: Picked up 21.60. Allowed 17.40
• Total Turnovers: Committed 0.90. Committed by opponents 0.90
• Total Penalties: Committed 3.60. Committed by opponents 5.30
• Penalty Yards: Lost 38.80 Yds. Gained 40.50 Yds

Last 10 Games on the Road

• Total Yards: Gained 326.00 Yds. Allowed 255.60 Yds
• Rushing Yards: Gained 112.00 Yds. Allowed 77.70 Yds
• Passing Yards: Gained 214.00 Yds. Allowed 177.90 Yds
• Total Touchdowns: Scored 2.00 TD. Allowed 1.60 TD
• Rushing Touchdowns: Scored 0.40 TD. Allowed 0.80 TD
• Passing Touchdowns: Scored 1.10 TD. Allowed 0.70 TD
• Total 1st Downs: Picked up 18.90. Allowed 15.50
• Total Turnovers: Committed 1.20. Committed by opponents 1.60
• Total Penalties: Committed 7.60. Committed by opponents 6.60
• Penalty Yards: Lost 67.00 Yds. Gained 46.50 Yds

Last 10 Home Games

• Total Yards: Gained 371.90 Yds. Allowed 263.90 Yds
• Rushing Yards: Gained 138.90 Yds. Allowed 95.70 Yds
• Passing Yards: Gained 233.00 Yds. Allowed 168.20 Yds
• Total Touchdowns: Scored 3.10 TD. Allowed 2.20 TD
• Rushing Touchdowns: Scored 1.40 TD. Allowed 0.60 TD
• Passing Touchdowns: Scored 1.50 TD. Allowed 1.60 TD
• Total 1st Downs: Picked up 21.00. Allowed 16.90
• Total Turnovers: Committed 1.30. Committed by opponents 0.90
• Total Penalties: Committed 5.00. Committed by opponents 5.60
• Penalty Yards: Lost 44.90 Yds. Gained 41.80 Yds

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