Texans vs Steelers Prediction, Picks & Odds | 12 Jan 2026

NFL Playoff Wild Card Weekend Betting Preview: Texans vs Steelers

No. 5 Houston Texans square off against No. 4 Pittsburgh Steelers in this AFC Wild Card Weekend showdown at Acrisure Stadium, with kickoff scheduled for 20:00 on Monday, January 12.

Our best wager is the Steelers at +3 on the spread. A win or narrow defeat against the Texans would mean our pick at -115 lands a return.

Confident in our spread pick? Read the full review of BetMGM, then grab our exclusive promo code before placing your bet.

The Houston Texans (12-5, 2nd in AFC South) extended its winning streak to nine with a 38–30 home win against the Indianapolis Colts at NRG Stadium. The Texans totaled 339 yards, with 205 through the air and 134 on the ground. The offense produced 22 first downs to go with 3 trips to the end zone.

The Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7, 1st in AFC North) have enjoyed back-to-back home wins at Acrisure Stadium, most recently edging the Baltimore Ravens 26–24. The Steelers moved the ball for 390 yards, with 290 through the air and 100 on the ground. The Black and Gold produced 24 first downs and scored 3 touchdowns, one coming through the air and 2 on the ground.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The Texans dominated the most recent meeting between these teams, recording a 30–6 home win over the Steelers at NRG Stadium.

Quarterbacks

C.J. Stroud

230.5 Passing Yards

Over -114

Under -114

Aaron Rodgers

204.5 Passing Yards

Over -114

Under -114

Texans vs Steelers Prediction & Picks

Head into Texans vs Steelers with expert betting insights, including our main match prediction, expected scoreline, key player prop picks and a thoughtfully built bet builder.

Game Prediction

If you agree that the Steelers can go fairly close in this Wild Card matchup, then back the underdogs against the spread here. The +3 makes lots of appeal at -115.

The NFL handicappers at Sportsgambler.com stay on top of injuries and team form that could impact the outcome. We also leave no stone unturned when analyzing the latest stats to support every prediction.

Key Texans vs Steelers stats:

• The +3 line has been covered by Steelers in 4 of their last 5 games.
• The +3 line has been covered by Steelers in 15 of their last 20 games at home.
• The +3 line has been covered by Steelers in 2 consecutive games at home.

Steelers +3 Probability

The best sportsbooks are estimating that there is a 53.5% likelihood of this pick winning. After careful examination, our analysts calculate this probability to be closer to 60%. The bet can be recommended for this precise reason.

Looking for more juice from your spread pick? By moving the betting line, you are able to get bigger odds although you will need to take a riskier wager.

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Our Game Prediction

Steelers +3 @ -115 Watch Live Bet Now

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Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: C.J. Stroud Under 230.5 Passing Yards -114

The odds for C.J. Stroud (Texans) to record fewer than 230.5 passing yards stand at -114. Several factors suggest he will fall short of the QB Passing Yards line, making this an appealing wager.

Latest C.J. Stroud Player Prop Odds

Touchdown

Anytime

+950

First

+3300

Passing Yards

Over 230.5

-114

Under 230.5

-114

Rushing Yards

Over 12.5

-114

Under 12.5

-114

---

Jaylen Warren Under 52.5 Rushing Yards -114

Jaylen Warren (Steelers) is priced at -114 to have less than 52.5 rushing yards. He’s not guaranteed to cover the Player Rushing Yards line and we’re happy to take this bet.

Latest Jaylen Warren Player Prop Odds

Touchdown

Anytime

+250

First

+1000

Receiving Yards

Over 12.5

-114

Under 12.5

-114

Rushing Yards

Over 52.5

-114

Under 52.5

-114

Correct Score Prediction

Texans 20 - 21 Steelers

We’re expecting this to be a close battle and we’ll take Pittsburgh to win 21-20. This is available at huge odds for those that want to have a speculative wager.

Texans vs Steelers Odds

The odds and lines are updated on a frequent basis. You might therefore find that they are different to the ones listed for the betting predictions and bet builder tips.

The Houston Texans are regarded as having a 61% chance of winning this Wild Card game according to the latest betting odds. The sportsbooks have priced them up at -159. The Pittsburgh Steelers are trading at bigger odds than their opponents and the Black and Gold can be backed at +134.

3 is where the spread lies, with total points being 38.5 right now. Having a wager on the Totals is one of the most popular NFL bets. If you’re going for Under 38.5, this outcome can be backed at -115.

Bettors have no shortage of options with the extensive range of game lines and team props available for every matchup. Head to the best NFL sportsbooks and uncover the wagers that offer the best value.

Moneyline

Texans

-159

Steelers

+134

Point Spread

Texans -3

-105

Steelers +3

-115

Total Points

Under 38.5

-115

Over 38.5

-105

The First Touchdown Scorer favorite is Nico Collins at +600. Similar odds can be found if you’re interested in this player to register the final TD.

Touchdown

Nico Collins (Texans)

First TD

+600

Anytime TD

+145

Woody Marks (Texans)

First TD

+750

Anytime TD

+200

Dalton Schultz (Texans)

First TD

+850

Anytime TD

+230

Kenneth Gainwell (Steelers)

First TD

+900

Anytime TD

+210

DK Metcalf (Steelers)

First TD

+900

Anytime TD

+220

Jaylen Warren (Steelers)

First TD

+1000

Anytime TD

+250

Jayden Higgins (Texans)

First TD

+1400

Anytime TD

+400

Pat Freiermuth (Steelers)

First TD

+1500

Anytime TD

+380

Nick Chubb (Texans)

First TD

+2000

Anytime TD

+600

Jonnu Smith (Steelers)

First TD

+2200

Anytime TD

+650

Jawhar Jordan (Texans)

First TD

+2500

Anytime TD

+550

Christian Kirk (Texans)

First TD

+2500

Anytime TD

+700

Jaylin Noel (Texans)

First TD

+3000

Anytime TD

+900

Marquez Valdes-Scantling (Steelers)

First TD

+3000

Anytime TD

+850

Xavier Hutchinson (Texans)

First TD

+3000

Anytime TD

+850

Connor Heyward (Steelers)

First TD

+3000

Anytime TD

+700

C.J. Stroud (Texans)

First TD

+3300

Anytime TD

+950

Calvin Austin III (Steelers)

First TD

+3300

Anytime TD

+900

Cade Stover (Texans)

First TD

+3500

Anytime TD

+800

Adam Thielen (Steelers)

First TD

+6000

Anytime TD

+1200

British Brooks (Texans)

First TD

+8000

Anytime TD

+1900

Braxton Berrios (Texans)

First TD

+8000

Anytime TD

+2000

Justin Watson (Texans)

First TD

+8000

Anytime TD

+2000

Harrison Bryant (Texans)

First TD

+8000

Anytime TD

+2000

Dare Ogunbowale (Texans)

First TD

+8000

Anytime TD

+2200

Aaron Rodgers (Steelers)

First TD

+8000

Anytime TD

+3000

Scott Miller (Steelers)

First TD

+10000

Anytime TD

+1900

Kaleb Johnson (Steelers)

First TD

+10000

Anytime TD

+2200

Roman Wilson (Steelers)

First TD

+10000

Anytime TD

+1900

Ben Skowronek (Steelers)

First TD

+10000

Anytime TD

+4000

Receiving Yards

Nico Collins (Texans)

Over 71.5

-114

Under 71.5

-114

DK Metcalf (Steelers)

Over 56.5

-114

Under 56.5

-114

Dalton Schultz (Texans)

Over 43.5

-114

Under 43.5

-114

Pat Freiermuth (Steelers)

Over 33.5

-114

Under 33.5

-114

Kenneth Gainwell (Steelers)

Over 32.5

-114

Under 32.5

-114

Jayden Higgins (Texans)

Over 30.5

-114

Under 30.5

-114

Christian Kirk (Texans)

Over 16.5

-114

Under 16.5

-114

Xavier Hutchinson (Texans)

Over 14.5

-114

Under 14.5

-114

Jaylen Warren (Steelers)

Over 12.5

-114

Under 12.5

-114

Jaylin Noel (Texans)

Over 11.5

-122

Under 11.5

-108

Jonnu Smith (Steelers)

Over 11.5

-108

Under 11.5

-122

Calvin Austin III (Steelers)

Over 11.5

-114

Under 11.5

-114

Marquez Valdes-Scantling (Steelers)

Over 10.5

-114

Under 10.5

-114

Woody Marks (Texans)

Over 9.5

-122

Under 9.5

-108

Rushing Yards

Woody Marks (Texans)

Over 54.5

-114

Under 54.5

-114

Jaylen Warren (Steelers)

Over 52.5

-114

Under 52.5

-114

Kenneth Gainwell (Steelers)

Over 28.5

-114

Under 28.5

-114

Nick Chubb (Texans)

Over 15.5

-114

Under 15.5

-114

C.J. Stroud (Texans)

Over 12.5

-114

Under 12.5

-114

Aaron Rodgers (Steelers)

Over 0.5

-122

Under 0.5

-108

Passing Yards

C.J. Stroud (Texans)

Over 230.5

-114

Under 230.5

-114

Aaron Rodgers (Steelers)

Over 204.5

-114

Under 204.5

-114

Steelers Sitting on Five Wins in Previous Ten at Home

The Steelers have a 5-5 record in their last 10 home games, posting 21.40 points per contest while yielding 22.00.

The Texans have built a run of four straight road victories. Houston have six wins and four losses in the last 10 games away from home, posting 19.50 points per contest while yielding 16.00.

The Texans defeated the Steelers 20-12 when the teams last met at Acrisure Stadium.

Last 10 Games		W-L	P	PF	PA	O38.5	U38.5
Steelers Home Stats		5-5	43.40	21.40	22.00	7	3
Texans Away Stats		6-4	35.50	19.50	16.00	2	8

• W-L = Wins-Losses
• P = Avg. Points
• PF = Avg. Points For
• PA = Avg. Points Against
• O38.5 = Games Over 38.5 Points
• U38.5 = Games Under 38.5 Points

Latest regular season and playoff games stats.

Houston Texans Stats

Pittsburgh Steelers Stats

Moneyline

• 9 wins and 1 defeat in the last 10 games
• 6 wins and 4 defeats in the last 10 games on the road

Moneyline

• 6 wins and 4 defeats in the last 10 games
• 6 wins and 4 defeats in the last 10 home games

Point Spread

• -3 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 8 of the last 10 games
• -3 Betting Line on the Road: Have covered the spread in 6 of the last 10 games on the road

Point Spread

• +3 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 7 of the last 10 games
• +3 Betting Line at Home: Have covered the spread in 7 of the last 10 home games

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 44.30 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals on the Road: An average of 35.50 pts in the previous 10 games on the road
• Over 38.5: Covered in 5 of the previous 10 games
• Over 38.5 on the Road: Covered in 2 of the previous 10 games on the road
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 25.10 pts and allowed 19.20 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals on the Road: Have scored an average of 19.50 pts and allowed 16.00 pts in the last 10 games on the road

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 43.40 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals at Home: An average of 44.00 pts in the previous 10 home games
• Over 38.5: Covered in 7 of the previous 10 games
• Over 38.5 at Home: Covered in 7 of the previous 10 home games
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 22.20 pts and allowed 21.20 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals at Home: Have scored an average of 22.80 pts and allowed 21.20 pts in the last 10 home games

Game Stats

Last 10 Games

• Total Yards: Gained 325.80 Yds. Allowed 284.40 Yds
• Rushing Yards: Gained 105.80 Yds. Allowed 97.40 Yds
• Passing Yards: Gained 220.00 Yds. Allowed 187.10 Yds
• Total Touchdowns: Scored 2.30 TD. Allowed 2.20 TD
• Rushing Touchdowns: Scored 0.70 TD. Allowed 0.60 TD
• Passing Touchdowns: Scored 1.20 TD. Allowed 1.40 TD
• Total 1st Downs: Picked up 19.20. Allowed 16.30
• Total Turnovers: Committed 0.50. Committed by opponents 1.70
• Total Penalties: Committed 6.60. Committed by opponents 5.90
• Penalty Yards: Lost 56.20 Yds. Gained 52.50 Yds

Game Stats

Last 10 Games

• Total Yards: Gained 311.60 Yds. Allowed 336.70 Yds
• Rushing Yards: Gained 109.60 Yds. Allowed 113.30 Yds
• Passing Yards: Gained 202.00 Yds. Allowed 223.40 Yds
• Total Touchdowns: Scored 2.60 TD. Allowed 2.30 TD
• Rushing Touchdowns: Scored 1.30 TD. Allowed 0.60 TD
• Passing Touchdowns: Scored 1.00 TD. Allowed 1.70 TD
• Total 1st Downs: Picked up 17.90. Allowed 19.00
• Total Turnovers: Committed 0.90. Committed by opponents 1.70
• Total Penalties: Committed 5.90. Committed by opponents 6.80
• Penalty Yards: Lost 48.50 Yds. Gained 53.60 Yds

Last 10 Games on the Road

• Total Yards: Gained 322.60 Yds. Allowed 269.50 Yds
• Rushing Yards: Gained 116.30 Yds. Allowed 79.90 Yds
• Passing Yards: Gained 206.30 Yds. Allowed 189.60 Yds
• Total Touchdowns: Scored 1.90 TD. Allowed 1.70 TD
• Rushing Touchdowns: Scored 0.50 TD. Allowed 0.80 TD
• Passing Touchdowns: Scored 1.10 TD. Allowed 0.80 TD
• Total 1st Downs: Picked up 18.60. Allowed 15.60
• Total Turnovers: Committed 1.00. Committed by opponents 1.50
• Total Penalties: Committed 7.60. Committed by opponents 7.00
• Penalty Yards: Lost 67.40 Yds. Gained 50.90 Yds

Last 10 Home Games

• Total Yards: Gained 286.30 Yds. Allowed 346.50 Yds
• Rushing Yards: Gained 91.20 Yds. Allowed 102.30 Yds
• Passing Yards: Gained 195.10 Yds. Allowed 244.20 Yds
• Total Touchdowns: Scored 2.50 TD. Allowed 2.20 TD
• Rushing Touchdowns: Scored 1.00 TD. Allowed 0.50 TD
• Passing Touchdowns: Scored 1.30 TD. Allowed 1.60 TD
• Total 1st Downs: Picked up 17.80. Allowed 20.40
• Total Turnovers: Committed 0.70. Committed by opponents 1.80
• Total Penalties: Committed 5.60. Committed by opponents 6.20
• Penalty Yards: Lost 45.30 Yds. Gained 48.20 Yds

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