Chiefs vs Jaguars Prediction, Picks & Odds | 06 Oct 2025

NFL Betting Preview: Chiefs vs Jaguars

The Kansas City Chiefs clash with the Jacksonville Jaguars in this NFL Week 5 Monday Night Football matchup at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, with kickoff scheduled for 20:15 on Monday, October 6. Our betting preview features expert predictions, picks, updated betting odds, head-to-head stats and the latest team news, including injuries.

The Jaguars look easy to back at -104 considering they’ve been given a spread of +3. This looks a good number when squaring off against the Chiefs.

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Kansas City Chiefs beat Baltimore Ravens in their previous game, making it back-to-back victories. It was a 37-20 home win at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. The Chiefs finished with 382 total yards, made up of 264 through the air and 118 on the ground. They scored 4 touchdowns and picked up 24 first downs.

Jacksonville Jaguars have triumphed in back-to-back games. The latest of these was on the road where San Francisco 49ers were beaten 26-21 at Levi's Stadium. The Jaguars finished with 325 yards, including 174 passing and 151 rushing yards. The offense scored 3 touchdowns and moved the chains 18 times.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The Chiefs won the last matchup between the pair. Enjoying a 17-9 triumph when facing the Jaguars at EverBank Stadium. The Chiefs have won on the past 4 times these teams have gone H2H.

Quarterbacks

Patrick Mahomes

250.5 Passing Yards

Over -112

Under -112

Trevor Lawrence

219.5 Passing Yards

Over -112

Under -112

Chiefs vs Jaguars Prediction & Picks

Explore our top Chiefs vs Jaguars betting tips, including a match prediction, correct score forecast, player performance props and a bet builder ready to use.

Game Prediction

We’re really sweet on the Jaguars putting up a fight in this NFL showdown and that compels us to bet the underdogs against the spread. You can get -104 when it comes to the +3 that is available.

We use the latest team news and injury updates to help shape the best possible NFL picks. You’ll also notice we take a stats-led approach by factoring in the key numbers that truly make a difference.

Key Chiefs vs Jaguars stats:

• The +3 line has been covered by Jaguars in 4 of their last 5 games.
• The +3 line has been covered by Jaguars in 7 of their last 10 games.
• The +3 line has been covered by Jaguars in 3 consecutive games at home.
• The -3 line hasn’t been covered by Chiefs in 3 of their last 5 games on the road.

Jaguars +3 Probability

According to the best NFL betting sites, there’s a 51% likelihood of our pick delivering a return. Based on our analysts in-depth research, we calculate the actual probability to be 55-60%. This is why we regard this as a value wager.

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Our Game Prediction

Jaguars +3 @ -104 Bet Now

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Gamble responsibly 18+. All odds are correct at time of publishing and are subject to change. To use the Bookmaker Live Streaming services you will need to be logged in and have a funded account or to have placed a bet in the last 24 hours. Geo-restrictions apply.

Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: Xavier Worthy Anytime TD +155

Xavier Worthy (Chiefs) is available at +155 to reach the end zone. It’s worth a gamble on him to be Anytime Touchdown Scorer as there’s plenty of juice in these betting odds.

Latest Xavier Worthy Player Prop Odds

Touchdown

Anytime

+150

First

+850

Receiving Yards

Over 58.5

-112

Under 58.5

-112

Rushing Yards

Over 4.5

-112

Under 4.5

-112

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Patrick Mahomes Under 245.5 Passing Yards -114

The odds for Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs) to record fewer than 245.5 passing yards stand at -114. He is likely to fall short of the line, making this QB Passing Yards bet an appealing option.

Latest Patrick Mahomes Player Prop Odds

Touchdown

Anytime

+330

First

+1600

Passing Yards

Over 250.5

-112

Under 250.5

-112

Rushing Yards

Over 21.5

-112

Under 21.5

-112

Correct Score Prediction

Chiefs 17 - 20 Jaguars

We’re expecting this to be a close battle and we’ll take the Jaguars to win 20-17. This is available at huge odds for those that want to have a speculative wager.

Chiefs vs Jaguars Odds

The odds and lines are updated on a frequent basis. You might therefore find that they are different to the ones listed for the betting predictions and bet builder tips.

Kansas City Chiefs have the shortest price to win this game, with the sportsbooks giving them a 67% probability due to their -204 Moneyline betting odds. Jacksonville Jaguars are regarded as a long shot to win and you can currently back them at +170.

The spread is currently 4.5, with the total points line at 47.5. The advantage of the Totals is that you only have to choose from one of two options. If you want to bet Under 47.5, there are odds of -110.

Consider every angle when placing your National Football League wagers. The top betting apps have a huge selection of game lines and team props and it’s all about finding a bet which matches your prediction of the game.

Moneyline

Chiefs

-204

Jaguars

+170

Point Spread

Chiefs -4.5

-110

Jaguars +4.5

-110

Total Points

Under 47.5

-110

Over 47.5

-110

Favorite Travis Etienne Jr. is available at +600 to be the First TD Scorer. Similar odds apply if you’re interested in this player to score the final touchdown.

Touchdown

Travis Etienne Jr. (Jaguars)

First TD

+600

Anytime TD

+105

Xavier Worthy (Chiefs)

First TD

+850

Anytime TD

+150

Travis Kelce (Chiefs)

First TD

+850

Anytime TD

+155

Brian Thomas Jr (Jaguars)

First TD

+1000

Anytime TD

+185

Kareem Hunt (Chiefs)

First TD

+1300

Anytime TD

+220

Marquise Brown (Chiefs)

First TD

+1400

Anytime TD

+260

Isiah Pacheco (Chiefs)

First TD

+1400

Anytime TD

+300

Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs)

First TD

+1600

Anytime TD

+330

Travis Hunter (Jaguars)

First TD

+1700

Anytime TD

+340

Bhayshul Tuten (Jaguars)

First TD

+1800

Anytime TD

+370

JuJu Smith-Schuster (Chiefs)

First TD

+2000

Anytime TD

+410

Brenton Strange (Jaguars)

First TD

+2000

Anytime TD

+400

Tyquan Thornton (Chiefs)

First TD

+2000

Anytime TD

+430

Dyami Brown (Jaguars)

First TD

+2200

Anytime TD

+430

Brashard Smith (Chiefs)

First TD

+2500

Anytime TD

+500

Parker Washington (Jaguars)

First TD

+2700

Anytime TD

+500

Trevor Lawrence (Jaguars)

First TD

+2700

Anytime TD

+550

Noah Gray (Chiefs)

First TD

+2700

Anytime TD

+550

LeQuint Allen Jr. (Jaguars)

First TD

+8000

Anytime TD

+1500

Hunter Long (Jaguars)

First TD

+8000

Anytime TD

+1300

Quintin Morris (Jaguars)

First TD

+10000

Anytime TD

+2200

Jared Wiley (Chiefs)

First TD

+10000

Anytime TD

+2700

Jason Brownlee (Chiefs)

First TD

+10000

Anytime TD

+5500

Cody Schrader (Jaguars)

First TD

+10000

Anytime TD

+2000

Nikko Remigio (Chiefs)

First TD

+10000

Anytime TD

+3500

Robert Tonyan (Chiefs)

First TD

+10000

Anytime TD

+2700

Jalen Royals (Chiefs)

First TD

+10000

Anytime TD

+3500

Johnny Mundt (Jaguars)

First TD

+10000

Anytime TD

+2000

Tim Patrick (Jaguars)

First TD

+10000

Anytime TD

+1800

Receiving Yards

Xavier Worthy (Chiefs)

Over 58.5

-112

Under 58.5

-112

Brian Thomas Jr (Jaguars)

Over 56.5

-112

Under 56.5

-112

Travis Kelce (Chiefs)

Over 42.5

-112

Under 42.5

-112

Marquise Brown (Chiefs)

Over 36.5

-112

Under 36.5

-112

Brenton Strange (Jaguars)

Over 35.5

-112

Under 35.5

-112

Travis Hunter (Jaguars)

Over 32.5

-112

Under 32.5

-112

JuJu Smith-Schuster (Chiefs)

Over 29.5

-112

Under 29.5

-112

Dyami Brown (Jaguars)

Over 28.5

-112

Under 28.5

-112

Parker Washington (Jaguars)

Over 15.5

-112

Under 15.5

-112

Tyquan Thornton (Chiefs)

Over 14.5

-112

Under 14.5

-112

Noah Gray (Chiefs)

Over 13.5

-112

Under 13.5

-112

Brashard Smith (Chiefs)

Over 11.5

-112

Under 11.5

-112

Travis Etienne Jr. (Jaguars)

Over 11.5

-112

Under 11.5

-112

Isiah Pacheco (Chiefs)

Over 7.5

-118

Under 7.5

-108

Kareem Hunt (Chiefs)

Over 6.5

-112

Under 6.5

-112

Rushing Yards

Travis Etienne Jr. (Jaguars)

Over 64.5

-112

Under 64.5

-112

Kareem Hunt (Chiefs)

Over 27.5

-112

Under 27.5

-112

Isiah Pacheco (Chiefs)

Over 26.5

-112

Under 26.5

-112

Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs)

Over 21.5

-112

Under 21.5

-112

Bhayshul Tuten (Jaguars)

Over 20.5

-112

Under 20.5

-112

Trevor Lawrence (Jaguars)

Over 12.5

-112

Under 12.5

-112

Brashard Smith (Chiefs)

Over 10.5

-112

Under 10.5

-112

Xavier Worthy (Chiefs)

Over 4.5

-112

Under 4.5

-112

Passing Yards

Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs)

Over 250.5

-112

Under 250.5

-112

Trevor Lawrence (Jaguars)

Over 219.5

-112

Under 219.5

-112

You don’t have to wait for the final outcome when it comes to NFL micro betting. Instead, there’s the opportunity to wager on live lines which tend to be settled in a shorter space of time and the in-game odds are always changing.

Latest regular season and playoff games stats.

Kansas City Chiefs Stats

Jacksonville Jaguars Stats

Moneyline

• 6 wins and 4 defeats in the last 10 games
• 6 wins and 4 defeats in the last 10 games on the road

Moneyline

• 5 wins and 5 defeats in the last 10 games
• 5 wins and 5 defeats in the last 10 home games

Point Spread

• -3 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 6 of the last 10 games
• -3 Betting Line on the Road: Have covered the spread in 6 of the last 10 games on the road

Point Spread

• +3 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 7 of the last 10 games
• +3 Betting Line at Home: Have covered the spread in 7 of the last 10 home games

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 45.60 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals on the Road: An average of 44.70 pts in the previous 10 games on the road
• Over 46.5: Covered in 4 of the previous 10 games
• Over 46.5 on the Road: Covered in 5 of the previous 10 games on the road
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 23.00 pts and allowed 22.60 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals on the Road: Have scored an average of 22.10 pts and allowed 22.60 pts in the last 10 games on the road

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 39.90 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals at Home: An average of 42.20 pts in the previous 10 home games
• Over 46.5: Covered in 4 of the previous 10 games
• Over 46.5 at Home: Covered in 4 of the previous 10 home games
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 20.80 pts and allowed 19.10 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals at Home: Have scored an average of 22.40 pts and allowed 19.80 pts in the last 10 home games

Game Stats

Last 10 Games

• Total Yards: Gained 304.60 Yds. Allowed 346.00 Yds
• Rushing Yards: Gained 89.60 Yds. Allowed 138.30 Yds
• Passing Yards: Gained 215.00 Yds. Allowed 207.70 Yds
• Total Touchdowns: Scored 2.60 TD. Allowed 2.50 TD
• Rushing Touchdowns: Scored 1.00 TD. Allowed 1.00 TD
• Passing Touchdowns: Scored 1.60 TD. Allowed 1.40 TD
• Total 1st Downs: Picked up 18.50. Allowed 20.80
• Total Turnovers: Committed 0.50. Committed by opponents 0.90
• Total Penalties: Committed 5.90. Committed by opponents 6.20
• Penalty Yards: Lost 49.10 Yds. Gained 46.30 Yds

Game Stats

Last 10 Games

• Total Yards: Gained 342.30 Yds. Allowed 334.30 Yds
• Rushing Yards: Gained 120.90 Yds. Allowed 109.50 Yds
• Passing Yards: Gained 221.40 Yds. Allowed 224.80 Yds
• Total Touchdowns: Scored 2.10 TD. Allowed 1.90 TD
• Rushing Touchdowns: Scored 0.70 TD. Allowed 0.60 TD
• Passing Touchdowns: Scored 1.30 TD. Allowed 1.30 TD
• Total 1st Downs: Picked up 18.90. Allowed 20.10
• Total Turnovers: Committed 1.20. Committed by opponents 1.40
• Total Penalties: Committed 7.50. Committed by opponents 4.90
• Penalty Yards: Lost 65.00 Yds. Gained 39.70 Yds

Last 10 Games on the Road

• Total Yards: Gained 303.90 Yds. Allowed 336.70 Yds
• Rushing Yards: Gained 98.90 Yds. Allowed 117.70 Yds
• Passing Yards: Gained 205.00 Yds. Allowed 219.00 Yds
• Total Touchdowns: Scored 2.70 TD. Allowed 2.50 TD
• Rushing Touchdowns: Scored 0.90 TD. Allowed 1.10 TD
• Passing Touchdowns: Scored 1.80 TD. Allowed 1.30 TD
• Total 1st Downs: Picked up 18.60. Allowed 20.90
• Total Turnovers: Committed 0.80. Committed by opponents 1.60
• Total Penalties: Committed 6.90. Committed by opponents 5.90
• Penalty Yards: Lost 61.70 Yds. Gained 37.80 Yds

Last 10 Home Games

• Total Yards: Gained 347.50 Yds. Allowed 345.10 Yds
• Rushing Yards: Gained 121.20 Yds. Allowed 119.30 Yds
• Passing Yards: Gained 226.30 Yds. Allowed 225.80 Yds
• Total Touchdowns: Scored 2.30 TD. Allowed 1.90 TD
• Rushing Touchdowns: Scored 1.00 TD. Allowed 0.60 TD
• Passing Touchdowns: Scored 1.20 TD. Allowed 1.30 TD
• Total 1st Downs: Picked up 19.00. Allowed 20.20
• Total Turnovers: Committed 1.20. Committed by opponents 1.20
• Total Penalties: Committed 6.30. Committed by opponents 6.10
• Penalty Yards: Lost 53.40 Yds. Gained 44.10 Yds

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