Chargers vs Patriots Prediction, Picks & Odds | 11 Jan 2026

NFL Playoff Wild Card Weekend Betting Preview: Chargers vs Patriots

No. 7 Los Angeles Chargers square off against No. 2 New England Patriots in this AFC Wild Card Weekend clash at Gillette Stadium, with kickoff scheduled for 20:00 on Sunday, January 11.

Our prediction is for the Patriots to cover the attractive -3.5 line when playing the Chargers. New England should be able to triumph by a more comfortable margin and -110 is available on the spread.

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The Los Angeles Chargers (11-6, 2nd in AFC West) enter this Wild Card matchup on a two-game losing streak after a 19–3 road loss to the Denver Broncos at Empower Field at Mile High. The Chargers generated 217 yards, including 104 passing and 113 rushing yards. They allowed 13 first downs and managed 13.

The New England Patriots (14-3, 1st in AFC East) extended their winning streak to three with a dominant 38–10 home win over the Miami Dolphins at Gillette Stadium last time out. The Patriots moved the ball for 457 yards, split between 214 passing and 243 rushing yards. The offense scored 5 touchdowns and moved the chains 22 times.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The Chargers have claimed back-to-back wins over the Patriots, with both victories coming at Gillette Stadium by scores of 6–0 and 40–7. However, New England have won three of the last five head-to-head meetings.

Quarterbacks

Justin Herbert

225.5 Passing Yards

Over -114

Under -114

Drake Maye

242.5 Passing Yards

Over -114

Under -114

Chargers vs Patriots Prediction & Picks

Get the full betting picture for Chargers vs Patriots, including our expert match prediction, likely scoreline, must-watch player props and a tailored bet builder ready to use.

Game Prediction

There’s a great opportunity to cover the spread by backing the Patriots at -3.5 in this Wild Card matchup. We can get odds of -110 and this is our best pick.

We’re always on top of team news and when combined with recent form, it helps us uncover the best value. Our NFL handicappers also take a data-led approach, using key stats to back every pick.

Key Chargers vs Patriots stats:

• The -3.5 line has been covered by Pats in 8 of their last 10 games.
• The -3.5 line has been covered by Pats in 4 of their last 5 games.
• The -3.5 line has been covered by Pats in 3 consecutive games.
• The +3.5 line hasn’t been covered by Chargers in 2 consecutive games.

Pats -3.5 Probability

According to the latest odds, there’s a 52.4% likelihood of our pick landing a return. Our cappers think there’s a stronger chance of success and calculate the probability to be 55-60%. That means we are regarding it as a value wager.

Want bigger odds when it comes to your spread pick? Never fear, you are able to head to the sportsbooks and move the line until you’re happy with the price.

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Our Game Prediction

Patriots -3.5 @ -110 Watch Live Bet Now

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Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: Drake Maye Over 242.5 Passing Yards -114

Drake Maye (Patriots) is priced at -114 to go over 242.5 passing yards. We’re happy to take him to cover the QB Passing Yards line and bettors can place this wager with confidence.

Latest Drake Maye Player Prop Odds

Touchdown

Anytime

+260

First

+1300

Passing Yards

Over 242.5

-114

Under 242.5

-114

Rushing Yards

Over 24.5

-114

Under 24.5

-114

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TreVeyon Henderson Anytime TD +130

TreVeyon Henderson (Patriots) is priced at +130 to hit the end zone. Based on all the evidence, we're happy to back him to punch it in on the Anytime Touchdown Scorer market.

Latest TreVeyon Henderson Player Prop Odds

Touchdown

Anytime

+130

First

+700

Receiving Yards

Over 10.5

-114

Under 10.5

-114

Rushing Yards

Over 54.5

-114

Under 54.5

-114

Correct Score Prediction

Chargers 17 - 23 Patriots

There are many different ways to back the Pats on the correct score betting and something like 23-17 in their favor might be along the right lines at huge odds.

Chargers vs Patriots Odds

The odds and lines are updated on a frequent basis. You might therefore find that they are different to the ones listed for the betting predictions and bet builder tips.

The sportsbooks have New England Patriots at -196 when it comes to the Moneyline betting, implying the market leaders are 66% likely to win this Wild Card showdown according to the latest odds. Los Angeles are the underdogs at +164 and the Chargers are regarded as least likely to win.

The spread is calculated to be 3.5, while total points comes in at 45.5. NFL fans regularly enjoy the opportunity to bet on the Totals. If you fancy Under 45.5, then the odds are -106.

If you’re wagering on the National Football League, we recommend heading to the best sportsbooks and scanning through the hundreds of game lines and team props. There’s a chance to bet pre-game and in-game.

Moneyline

Chargers

+164

Patriots

-196

Point Spread

Chargers +3.5

-110

Patriots -3.5

-110

Total Points

Under 45.5

-106

Over 45.5

-114

TreVeyon Henderson is the favorite to be First Touchdown Scorer at +700. If you’re interested in backing him to score a TD at anytime, then the price is +130.

Touchdown

TreVeyon Henderson (Patriots)

First TD

+700

Anytime TD

+130

Rhamondre Stevenson (Patriots)

First TD

+750

Anytime TD

+140

Omarion Hampton (Chargers)

First TD

+850

Anytime TD

+155

Hunter Henry (Patriots)

First TD

+900

Anytime TD

+165

Stefon Diggs (Patriots)

First TD

+900

Anytime TD

+180

Ladd McConkey (Chargers)

First TD

+1200

Anytime TD

+220

Quentin Johnston (Chargers)

First TD

+1300

Anytime TD

+220

Drake Maye (Patriots)

First TD

+1300

Anytime TD

+260

Keenan Allen (Chargers)

First TD

+1500

Anytime TD

+280

Oronde Gadsden II (Chargers)

First TD

+1500

Anytime TD

+260

Kayshon Boutte (Patriots)

First TD

+1600

Anytime TD

+330

Kimani Vidal (Chargers)

First TD

+2200

Anytime TD

+400

Austin Hooper (Patriots)

First TD

+2500

Anytime TD

+550

Justin Herbert (Chargers)

First TD

+2500

Anytime TD

+550

Tre Harris (Chargers)

First TD

+2500

Anytime TD

+500

DeMario Douglas (Patriots)

First TD

+2700

Anytime TD

+600

Kyle Williams (Patriots)

First TD

+4000

Anytime TD

+550

Will Dissly (Chargers)

First TD

+8000

Anytime TD

+1100

Tyler Conklin (Chargers)

First TD

+8000

Anytime TD

+1100

Efton Chism III (Patriots)

First TD

+8000

Anytime TD

+1100

KeAndre Lambert-Smith (Chargers)

First TD

+8000

Anytime TD

+1600

Derius Davis (Chargers)

First TD

+10000

Anytime TD

+2000

Jack Westover (Patriots)

First TD

+10000

Anytime TD

+2500

D'Ernest Johnson (Patriots)

First TD

+10000

Anytime TD

+2500

CJ Dippre (Patriots)

First TD

+10000

Anytime TD

+3500

Hassan Haskins (Chargers)

First TD

+10000

Anytime TD

+2000

Scott Matlock (Chargers)

First TD

+10000

Anytime TD

+3000

Jeremiah Webb (Patriots)

First TD

+10000

Anytime TD

+2500

Receiving Yards

Stefon Diggs (Patriots)

Over 55.5

-114

Under 55.5

-114

Hunter Henry (Patriots)

Over 44.5

-114

Under 44.5

-114

Ladd McConkey (Chargers)

Over 40.5

-114

Under 40.5

-114

Quentin Johnston (Chargers)

Over 36.5

-114

Under 36.5

-114

Keenan Allen (Chargers)

Over 33.5

-114

Under 33.5

-114

Oronde Gadsden II (Chargers)

Over 31.5

-114

Under 31.5

-114

Kayshon Boutte (Patriots)

Over 29.5

-114

Under 29.5

-114

DeMario Douglas (Patriots)

Over 18.5

-114

Under 18.5

-114

Tre Harris (Chargers)

Over 15.5

-114

Under 15.5

-114

Rhamondre Stevenson (Patriots)

Over 13.5

-114

Under 13.5

-114

TreVeyon Henderson (Patriots)

Over 10.5

-114

Under 10.5

-114

Omarion Hampton (Chargers)

Over 10.5

-114

Under 10.5

-114

Austin Hooper (Patriots)

Over 9.5

-114

Under 9.5

-114

Rushing Yards

TreVeyon Henderson (Patriots)

Over 54.5

-114

Under 54.5

-114

Omarion Hampton (Chargers)

Over 44.5

-114

Under 44.5

-114

Rhamondre Stevenson (Patriots)

Over 38.5

-114

Under 38.5

-114

Justin Herbert (Chargers)

Over 28.5

-114

Under 28.5

-114

Kimani Vidal (Chargers)

Over 27.5

-114

Under 27.5

-114

Drake Maye (Patriots)

Over 24.5

-114

Under 24.5

-114

Passing Yards

Drake Maye (Patriots)

Over 242.5

-114

Under 242.5

-114

Justin Herbert (Chargers)

Over 225.5

-114

Under 225.5

-114

Pats Have Taken Seven Wins From Last Ten Home Outings

The Patriots own a 7-3 mark in their past 10 home games, scoring 27.70 points per contest and conceding 18.00.

The Chargers have a 6-4 record in their last 10 games away from home, posting 19.90 points per contest while yielding 21.30.

The last Gillette Stadium meeting saw the Chargers beat the Patriots 40-7. Looking back at the past 3 head-to-head meetings at Gillette Stadium, the Chargers have posted two victories, with the Patriots earning one.

Last 10 Games		W-L	P	PF	PA	O45.5	U45.5
Patriots Home Stats		7-3	45.70	27.70	18.00	5	5
Chargers Away Stats		6-4	41.20	19.90	21.30	4	6

• W-L = Wins-Losses
• P = Avg. Points
• PF = Avg. Points For
• PA = Avg. Points Against
• O45.5 = Games Over 45.5 Points
• U45.5 = Games Under 45.5 Points

Latest regular season and playoff games stats.

Los Angeles Chargers Stats

New England Patriots Stats

Moneyline

• 7 wins and 3 defeats in the last 10 games
• 6 wins and 4 defeats in the last 10 games on the road

Moneyline

• 9 wins and 1 defeat in the last 10 games
• 7 wins and 3 defeats in the last 10 home games

Point Spread

• +3.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 7 of the last 10 games
• +3.5 Betting Line on the Road: Have covered the spread in 7 of the last 10 games on the road

Point Spread

• -3.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 8 of the last 10 games
• -3.5 Betting Line at Home: Have covered the spread in 6 of the last 10 home games

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 39.40 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals on the Road: An average of 41.20 pts in the previous 10 games on the road
• Over 45.5: Covered in 3 of the previous 10 games
• Over 45.5 on the Road: Covered in 4 of the previous 10 games on the road
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 21.70 pts and allowed 17.70 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals on the Road: Have scored an average of 19.90 pts and allowed 21.30 pts in the last 10 games on the road

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 49.60 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals at Home: An average of 45.70 pts in the previous 10 home games
• Over 45.5: Covered in 8 of the previous 10 games
• Over 45.5 at Home: Covered in 5 of the previous 10 home games
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 30.90 pts and allowed 18.70 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals at Home: Have scored an average of 27.70 pts and allowed 18.00 pts in the last 10 home games

Game Stats

Last 10 Games

• Total Yards: Gained 306.60 Yds. Allowed 263.80 Yds
• Rushing Yards: Gained 128.90 Yds. Allowed 92.60 Yds
• Passing Yards: Gained 177.70 Yds. Allowed 171.20 Yds
• Total Touchdowns: Scored 2.10 TD. Allowed 1.80 TD
• Rushing Touchdowns: Scored 0.80 TD. Allowed 0.60 TD
• Passing Touchdowns: Scored 1.30 TD. Allowed 0.90 TD
• Total 1st Downs: Picked up 18.50. Allowed 15.80
• Total Turnovers: Committed 1.10. Committed by opponents 1.60
• Total Penalties: Committed 5.20. Committed by opponents 5.30
• Penalty Yards: Lost 40.80 Yds. Gained 44.20 Yds

Game Stats

Last 10 Games

• Total Yards: Gained 404.60 Yds. Allowed 282.90 Yds
• Rushing Yards: Gained 146.70 Yds. Allowed 118.90 Yds
• Passing Yards: Gained 257.90 Yds. Allowed 164.00 Yds
• Total Touchdowns: Scored 3.60 TD. Allowed 2.40 TD
• Rushing Touchdowns: Scored 1.50 TD. Allowed 0.80 TD
• Passing Touchdowns: Scored 1.90 TD. Allowed 1.50 TD
• Total 1st Downs: Picked up 22.00. Allowed 16.90
• Total Turnovers: Committed 0.90. Committed by opponents 1.00
• Total Penalties: Committed 4.10. Committed by opponents 5.40
• Penalty Yards: Lost 40.70 Yds. Gained 41.50 Yds

Last 10 Games on the Road

• Total Yards: Gained 323.40 Yds. Allowed 287.20 Yds
• Rushing Yards: Gained 109.20 Yds. Allowed 110.90 Yds
• Passing Yards: Gained 214.20 Yds. Allowed 176.30 Yds
• Total Touchdowns: Scored 1.80 TD. Allowed 2.10 TD
• Rushing Touchdowns: Scored 0.50 TD. Allowed 0.90 TD
• Passing Touchdowns: Scored 1.30 TD. Allowed 0.80 TD
• Total 1st Downs: Picked up 17.70. Allowed 17.80
• Total Turnovers: Committed 1.30. Committed by opponents 1.40
• Total Penalties: Committed 5.80. Committed by opponents 5.10
• Penalty Yards: Lost 43.50 Yds. Gained 42.30 Yds

Last 10 Home Games

• Total Yards: Gained 364.70 Yds. Allowed 269.10 Yds
• Rushing Yards: Gained 132.00 Yds. Allowed 100.00 Yds
• Passing Yards: Gained 232.70 Yds. Allowed 169.10 Yds
• Total Touchdowns: Scored 3.20 TD. Allowed 2.40 TD
• Rushing Touchdowns: Scored 1.50 TD. Allowed 0.70 TD
• Passing Touchdowns: Scored 1.50 TD. Allowed 1.70 TD
• Total 1st Downs: Picked up 21.00. Allowed 16.80
• Total Turnovers: Committed 1.20. Committed by opponents 0.80
• Total Penalties: Committed 5.50. Committed by opponents 5.80
• Penalty Yards: Lost 47.30 Yds. Gained 43.30 Yds

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